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dafreak

So it begins, do the Bears draft a 1st round QB in 2021?

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On 9/29/2020 at 1:45 PM, dll2000 said:

He hated Tebow.  So did Elway.  They didn't want to win with a 'college offense.'  

Funny thing is half the league adopted college plays about 4 years later when Andy Reid adapted Chip Kelly's offense to his own West Coast offense.  

Tebow might have made it had he entered league at a different time with a coach willing to coach to his style of play like Lamar Jackson got, but I doubt he would have ever been great or even good.  He lacked downfield accuracy, but its worth noting that he isn't any worse than Lamar Jackson at downfield accuracy.  But Jackson is a far more gifted runner.  And Jackson looks exposed if he has to play from behind.  

It was public that loved Tebow.

 

Fox favored Tebow over Orton at that time because he wasn't winning with Orton.   He may not have liked winning "college style" but he did want to win.  Maybe loved was too strong a word but Fox supported the change and he did begin to win games while opponents tried to figure out how to play against Tebow. 

But the Broncos were never gonna win big with either just as I doubt QBs like Jackson and Murray can't sustain long term success now.  Not without the kind of talent as passers that Russell Wilson has shown.  Then you also have the injury factor to deal with.  Tough to think running QBs can avoid them forever.

Yeah, Elway hated Tebow but fans threatened to boycott games unless Tebow started.  So that part you have correct.  It would have been interesting to see how Tebow may have done as a RB instead of a QB but he wouldn't agree to that so now he's a baseball player in the minors isn't he?

Edited by soulman
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48 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Which is basically what my point was.  Outside of the weird year where Rodgers fell to 24 good QBs dont get out of the top 10 in the first round.  Hence my philosophy of not drafting QBs in THE FIRST ROUND outside of the top 10.  Obviously I'm not against drafting QBs in the 2nd and beyond bc the difference between those QBs after the top 10 and the 2nd is minimal.  Obviously if you are picking top 10 you should take the QB if the grade fits.

Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Wilson, Prescott, Jackson, Carr, and Garoppolo were all drafted outside of the top 10. Just because other teams didn't pick them doesn't mean the Bears shouldn't. Good QBs do get out of the top 10 and picking them in the 1st round gets you an extra year on the rookie deal.

I can see arguing that the Bears shouldn't draft a QB "just because" - to me that's completely fair. But if there's a guy you like who's graded in the 10-35 range on your board, why would you avoid picking him just because of draft positioning?

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On 9/29/2020 at 2:18 PM, WindyCity said:

One catastrophic mistake at the most important position added to the regular GM mistakes.

If he had picked Mahomes we would likely have a Super Bowl or at least be competing every year, so yeah, that is kind of a big issue.

IMHO Mahomes was lower on his list than Watson.  Pace didn't want another "gunslinger" type QB like Cutler.  Trubisky represented a kid with the kind of a skill set Rodgers has made a HOF career out of but he simply can't put it all together mentally in a game.  He hasn't matured as he was expected to.

I don't believe anyone ever believed Mahomes would have the kind of success as a pro that he's had but it does show how who a player, especially a QB, is drafted by can often have a huge impact on their careers.  Picture Mahomes playing for the Jets.  Would the results be the same?

Would the results even be the same if Pace had taken Mahomes?  We can't even be sure of that.  I'm not defending Pace here as much as I'm saying you're interpolating Mahomes success under a great HC known for developing QBs to how Mahomes would fair in Chicago.  It's not the same thing.

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5 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

This mentality is how you miss out on Mahomes, Brady, Brees, Wilson, Jackson, Prescott...

But those are all guys who drafted later than the top ten.  Some much later.   So what's your point?

I would still maintain that getting the right QB for your schemes is far better than selecting solely on their physical characteristics.

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5 hours ago, RunningVaccs said:

It is kind of depressing how many good QBs have been drafted since 2017.  

Gah... here's a horrible thought: what if the Bears don't lose any more games, but the season gets cancelled due to Covid, and then the 2021 draft is on standings based on 4 games....

Any idea how Foles' contract is structured in terms of the opt out if the season gets shortened? I know he can opt out with certain performance escalators such as being on the field for half the O snaps, plus reaching the playoffs, but I wonder if there is language that could give him that option-or his bonuses-with a short season. 

If Foles is starting he'll earn at least some of his bonus money and in 2020 and his 2021 base will escalate.  It's a fairly complex deal but here ya' go.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/nick-foles-9898/

Nick Foles

Embed This
Bears, QB Age: 31 Exp: 9 Years
Drafted: Round 3 (#88 overall), 2012 College: Arizona Agent(s): Justin Schulman, David Dunn (Athletes First)
 
 

Active

 

  • Current Contract

    Nick Foles signed a 3 year, $24,000,000 contract with the Chicago Bears, including a $4,000,000 signing bonus, $21,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $8,000,000. In 2020, Foles will earn a base salary of $4,000,000 and a signing bonus of $8,000,000, while carrying a cap hit of $6,666,666 and a dead cap value of $17,000,000.

    Contract Terms: 3 yr(s) / $24,000,000 Signing Bonus $4,000,000 Average Salary$8,000,000 GTD at Sign:$21,000,000 Total GTD:$21,000,000 Free Agent:2023 / UFA
      Bonus Breakdown Cap Details Cash Details  
    Year   Age Base Salary Signing Roster Cap Hit Dead Cap Yearly Cash  
    2020 Contract details by year 31 $4,000,000 $2,666,666 - $6,666,666 $17,000,000 $12,000,000($12,000,000)  
    2021 Contract details by year 32 $4,000,000 $2,666,666 - $6,666,666 $10,333,334 $4,000,000($16,000,000)  

    Potential Out: 2022, 2 yr, $16,000,000; $3,666,667 dead cap

    2022 Contract details by year 33 $4,000,000 $2,666,667 $4,000,000 $10,666,667 $3,666,667 $8,000,000($24,000,000)  
    2023 Free Agent Year 34 UFA  
    Contract Notes:
    • $21M guaranteed (signing bonus + 2020 salary + 2021 salary + 2022 roster bonus + $1M of 2022 salary)
    • 2021 Roster Bonus: $4M (5th league day of 2021)
    • 2022 Roster Bonus: $4M (5th league day of 2022)
    • Annual $6M of Incentives/Escalators
      • QB Rating (not cumulative, min. 224 attempts)
        95%: $500,000
        98.5%: $1M
        102%: $2M
      • Playing Time (not cumulative)
        50%: $500,000
        65%: $750,000
        80%: $1.5M
      • 50% Playing Time + Playoffs: $500,000 or
        50% Playing Time + Playoff Win (50% snaps): $1M
      • Pro Bowl: $750,000
      • NFL MVP or Super Bowl MVP: $750,000
    • Any incentive earned will also escalate the following year's base salary
    • An unknown incentive threshold gives Foles the option to void the deal after each of 2020 & 2021
     

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If we assume that there literally zero chance Mitch will be back in 2021 we will need to re-draft the QB position but how high that priority ranks will have a lot to do with Foles success or lack thereof over the next 13 games or possibly more provided we make the playoffs.  This is gonna have a pretty major impact on any decision.

So this is an unknown that's also coupled with the unknown of were we'll draft and even how the top college QBs may rank after this season and the scouting combine. So it's pretty tough to do more than speculate at best on who or what we can do next April other than knowing we'll need to do something at the QB position.

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2 hours ago, soulman said:

But those are all guys who drafted later than the top ten.  Some much later.   So what's your point?

I would still maintain that getting the right QB for your schemes is far better than selecting solely on their physical characteristics.

I’m pointing out that great QBs can be found outside the top 10.

The key is to keep trying. This isn’t an exact science and if you wait for that magic top 10 pick, you might miss a player like Russell or Dak.

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9 hours ago, WindyCity said:

The problem if we are picking 20-24, which I think is looking realistic we are too far to trade up for Lawrence, Fields, Lance.

We are also probably too low in round 2 for Trask, Newman.

 

We may need to just take either Trask or Newman in round 1.

Trask interests me. He seems to process the field well and make solid decisions.

Don't remember who but I saw someone noteworthy compare Trask to Josh Allen. I would take that.  Man I have to admit that I doubted Allen but he has turned out to be a pretty solid NFL QB for the Buffalo Bills.

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4 hours ago, soulman said:

IMHO Mahomes was lower on his list than Watson.  Pace didn't want another "gunslinger" type QB like Cutler.  Trubisky represented a kid with the kind of a skill set Rodgers has made a HOF career out of but he simply can't put it all together mentally in a game.  He hasn't matured as he was expected to.

I don't believe anyone ever believed Mahomes would have the kind of success as a pro that he's had but it does show how who a player, especially a QB, is drafted by can often have a huge impact on their careers.  Picture Mahomes playing for the Jets.  Would the results be the same?

Would the results even be the same if Pace had taken Mahomes?  We can't even be sure of that.  I'm not defending Pace here as much as I'm saying you're interpolating Mahomes success under a great HC known for developing QBs to how Mahomes would fair in Chicago.  It's not the same thing.

It was pointed out by some Bears beat writer that Pace was also very high in Mahomes but ultimately valued Mitch more.

This makes sense considering it was stated by Deshaun Watson that the Bears did not even entertain him leading up to the draft.

I really think that if Cleveland took Trubisky 1st overall that year then Mahomes would be a 🐻 right now.

Damn Cleveland ....

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1 hour ago, topwop1 said:

It was pointed out by some Bears beat writer that Pace was also very high in Mahomes but ultimately valued Mitch more.

This makes sense considering it was stated by Deshaun Watson that the Bears did not even entertain him leading up to the draft.

I really think that if Cleveland took Trubisky 1st overall that year then Mahomes would be a 🐻 right now.

Damn Cleveland ....

Mahomes would have busted in Chicago. 10/10 times.

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9 minutes ago, G08 said:

Mahomes would have busted in Chicago. 10/10 times.

Nah c'mon the guy is a special talent. As much as we'd like to believe the Bears would mess it up you cannot teach that skill. 

But anyway I hate dwelling on this over and over. 

We got Foles baby!!!

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5 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

I’m pointing out that great QBs can be found outside the top 10.

The key is to keep trying. This isn’t an exact science and if you wait for that magic top 10 pick, you might miss a player like Russell or Dak.

OK.  I wasn't getting that from how the post was worded so thanks for clearing it up for me.

And.....I'm with you.  As I've posted we should draft, or via trade or UFA, bring in the best QB we can find who fits the schemes we want to run.  Matt Nagy isn't gonna be fired any time soon and shouldn't be.  The same is true of Ryan Pace.  Both have elevated this team out of the pit we were in for 5 or 6 years in many different ways.  We may not be a SB contender in 2020 but we've at least built much of the foundation needed to become one soon.

Over all the years I have been a Bears fan we have been horrible at drafting and developing QBs and this stretches back for over 60 years.  The last championship won in the Halas era was won by a QB we got in trade from the Rams not one we'd drafted and developed and following that championship in '63 the list of our QBs either those drafted or traded for prior to Mac and the win of the '85 Bears can only be described as pathetic.

I would still not call Mitch a bust.  He's been a disappointment mostly because he's not a fit for Nagy's offensive scheme.  Nagy inherited him and was unable to do the kind of makeover needed for Mitch to succeed here.  That happens sometimes and it's why HC prefer to draft or bring in their own type of QB.  One who is a fit for his schemes.  That's Nick Foles and we knew this when we traded for him.  He's Nagy's current Alex Smith.

Who we plan to draft, sign as a UFA, or trade for eventually I can't say.  I just believe that Foles will have to be sufficient until we have someone else whose better.

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4 hours ago, topwop1 said:

It was pointed out by some Bears beat writer that Pace was also very high in Mahomes but ultimately valued Mitch more.

This makes sense considering it was stated by Deshaun Watson that the Bears did not even entertain him leading up to the draft.

I really think that if Cleveland took Trubisky 1st overall that year then Mahomes would be a 🐻 right now.

Damn Cleveland ....

Guess it all depends on which scribe and which stories you read or believe and had Cleveland drafted Mitch and we took Mahomes the fate Mitch has experienced might not be all that much different but at least he'd have failed there and not here.

What you say makes more sense to me because I never though Watson was the right guy to draft.   He's more the type we typically avoid.

I was on the Trubisky train primarily because I couldn't see Pace drafting another "gunslinger" type and I was also sold on the idea that Glennon could at least come closer to what we expect from Foles now thereby allowing us to "bank" Mitch 'til we got a new HC.

Guess I was just as wrong in my assessments as Pace was and has been although I'm not certain the next chapter in Mitch's book has yet been written or that Mahomes will always be the golden boy he is now.  I watched John Elway go from fair haired golden boy to goat (a real goat) losing SB after SB under Reeves before Shanahan came here, righted the ship and helped Elway collect his gold HOF jacket.  So who knows what the future holds.

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Posted (edited)

I guess the answer to the question asked in the title is maybe.  Seems we need both a young OT and a young QB.  Our biggest problem may be where we might draft.

If we're picking somewhere in the low to mid 20s the top two or three prospects at both positions are likely to be gone and now that we finally have a full compliment of draft picks again do we want to give up a kings ransom in picks to move up to get a top ten pick in order to get a #2 or a #3 prospect at either position.

It's really far too early to know so other than saying OT and QB appear to be our two biggest needs I have no idea what we might do or who we might draft. It's too soon.

Edited by soulman

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17 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Wilson, Prescott, Jackson, Carr, and Garoppolo were all drafted outside of the top 10. Just because other teams didn't pick them doesn't mean the Bears shouldn't. Good QBs do get out of the top 10 and picking them in the 1st round gets you an extra year on the rookie deal.

I can see arguing that the Bears shouldn't draft a QB "just because" - to me that's completely fair. But if there's a guy you like who's graded in the 10-35 range on your board, why would you avoid picking him just because of draft positioning?

Again you keep missing my point, you are consistently naming QBs who were drafted after the first round.  I'm not against drafting QBs after the first, I'm not against drafting a QB in the first provides it's a top 10 talent.  I'm against reaching in the first round to draft a 2nd round talent QB.  That's what teams do when they draft a QB in the first round outside the top 10.  Take a look at the history of what I'm talking about.  Find me an example of a QB taken from 11-28, not under some extraordinary circumstance of inexplicably falling not due to talent (this eliminates Rodgers and Marino) that went on to be a franchise QB.  Why is that?  Well it's quite simple actually, QBs rise on draft day.  If you are a first round QB you go in the top 10.  It's that simple.  With Marino, speculation is that Miami started the rumor the night before the draft that ultimately led him to fall to them.  With Rodgers it started with the 9ers not wanting to put the pressure on him to be a hometown hero, and then it was team after team not looking for a QB for whatever reason.  Reaching for a QB is what hurts your franchise.  

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