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Contenders or Pretenders?


Hunter2_1

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These are the teams with the best records so far. Which of them do you think are contenders and which are pretenders.

*to avoid confusion, let's say a contender is a team you think WILL get to the playoffs and win at least 1 game

Pretenders would be the teams that have jumped out to an impressive record, but you expect to falter down the line and are just borrowing their good record

 

Bills

Chiefs

Steelers

Ravens

Titans

Seahawks 

Rams

Cardinals

Bears

Packers

Buccaneers 

?

 

I do expect Saints to make it, but cutting it off at 4 wins atm

Edited by Hunter2_1
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A note for strength of schedules remaining

- LAR have had the easiest schedule so far, but remaining is the 3rd hardest schedule in the NFL

- TEN have the 7th hardest remaining

- ARZ 8th

- Coming the other way, KC has the 2nd easiest remaining schedule

- TB 4th easiest

- SEA 8th easiest

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39 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Bills - Pretender (sadly)

Chiefs - Contender

Steelers - Contender

Ravens - Contender

Titans - Contender

Seahawks - Contender

Rams - Pretender

Cardinals - Pretender

Bears - Pretender

Packers - Contender (barely)

Buccaneers - Contender (only by virtue of there being so few strong NFC teams)

Under my own made up criteria, to be a contender I think I need to see you as having a ~10% shot of making the super bowl

 

In the AFC I can easily see the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, or Titans being there.. The only other team I even have is the Bills, but if I have to really squint to see them there, then they are sadly a pretender

On the NFC side, its a mess. It's honestly hard for me to see anyone but the Seahawks there honestly. But if they have a bad game along the way in the playoffs I could see the Packers or Bucs squeezing their way in. It's really hard for me to see the Bears or the Rams there, and I see the Cards as being a team that will wilt on that stage (ala the 2019 Ravens)

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As far as simply MAKING the playoffs, I'm damn near ready to lock in the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Titans, and even Bills in the AFC.. and the Seahawks, Packers, Bucs, and probably even the Cards at this point. Bears with 5 wins already can probably have a legitimate collapse and still sneak into the 7 seed as well.

Having the 7th playoff team makes "getting there" much less of a question as we get to the halfway point, and the contender/pretender conversation to me is more about who will win those playoff games

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Pretenders -  Bears, AZ,   Bills    

The Bills defense just looked really bad the past couple weeks.  Pretty sure they gave up close to 40 pts albeit to good teams I don't think they are ready.   

AZ  -  Kind of the same but on offense Murray doesn't look ready for a really vicious playoff contender.

Bears - the offense will be their downfall I don't see them being able to keep it close with the better teams in the league  (although they did beat the Bucs I feel it was more Bucs lost)

Rams -  I feel could be pretenders just have to see what they do going forward hard to judge because of their schedule and the good teams they have played they lost to.

Contenders - Bucs, Ravens,  Seahawks

Bucs -  have a pretty balanced team and I believe one of the only teams with top 5 O and D.

Seahawks -   Russell has that offense humming and although their defense isn't great they play well in clutch situations.

Ravens -   Very balanced team good O and good D.   They look really impressive although flying under the radar it seems.

 

 

 

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Bills - Contenders. I think they will win the AFCE. They had two bad games but I dont hold that against them much because one game was on a Tuesday which throws everything off and then they played the Chiefs who was coming off a loss to the Raiders so you know they wanted to get that bad taste out of their mouth. The Bills will be fine.

Chiefs - Contenders. They are the defending Superbowl champs who just added Bell. I favor them to represent the AFC in the Superbowl this year. The only thing that can hurt them is continuing to get off to slow starts because in the playoffs lightning wont continue to strike like it did last season.

Steelers - Contenders. Big Ben looks great. I love the offense having a guy like Claypool and thats with Juju not even looking like he did a few years ago. If Juju can get back to looking like he did a few years ago watch out. The defense is legit. The Steelers can make a case to be the best team in the NFL.

Ravens - Contenders. They just added Ngakoue to an already talented defense. Now Lamar need to start using his legs more that made him dangerous last season because while he made strides as a passer he isnt consistent. I think the Ravens will be right there when its all said and done. The question will always be, can they beat the Chiefs?

Titans - Contenders. As long as Henry stays healthy the Titans will be a force to deal with. I love how Tannehill is playing too but it starts with Henry. 

Seahawks - Contenders. Dont love their defense and I also dont love how they seem to always play in close games but as long as Wilson is the quarterback the Seahawks will be contenders.

Rams - Contenders. The eye test says they are. The OL is playing great, the running game is strong. There is a stat that says the last two times the Rams had at least 800yds rushing through the first 6 games was 1999 and 2018. Both those seasons they went to the Superbowl. The Rams have a top 10 offense and a top 5 defense statistically. The only area of concern is the kicking game is shaky. Hopefully Forebath can be even a slight upgrade over Sloman but in general the Rams are definitely contenders in the NFC and it wouldnt shock me if they end up back in the NFCCG.

Cardinals - Pretenders. They definitely look light years better this year than last year but Im not ready to say they are a lock for the playoffs just yet. Maybe they could sneak in if things go right but they feel like the 4th best team in West still because the Niners arent right due to so many injuries. Plus losing Jones is a huge blow for them.

Bears - Pretenders. Foles isnt going to save them and we know Trubisky is a lost cause. Yes they are (5-1) but the eye test shows that they are an ugly (5-1) team. I dont like them very much moving forward this season. They will definitely start moving back to the pack.

Packers - Contenders. Despite looking horrible against the Bucs I think they are still contenders. Every team has a rough game here and there and I just thought the Packers had a rough game. They still have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL if you forget about what happened Sunday. Now you cant unsee (as Colin says) what happened on Sunday but this offense with ARod has looked great so as long as you have that baaaaaaaaaaddddddddd man you just say R-E-L-A-X. It was just one game. They will be fine.

Buccaneers - Pretenders. Yes I said PRETENDERS. They could very well win the South but that has alot to do with the Saints not being right this season more than the Bucs being good. The Bucs lost to the Bears, they shouldve lost to the Chargers but its the Chargers they always find a way to lose. Heck they found a way to lose to the Chiefs and the Saints. The Bucs should be (3-3) right now. Now I know they have had injuries so we can say when Godwin comes back, when Evans get healthy, when Fournette gets back. Ill just say that yes when those guys get back it will look as though they will hit their stride. Ill say those guys missing games hurts the Bucs even more because they dont have the chemistry with Brady. So its not like those guys getting back into the lineup immediately things will click. They were learning each other and it got stopped due to injury. The Bucs could very well make the playoffs but between the chemistry not being their combined with this is an undisciplined team. Lightning struck once last week when they didnt give up a sack or have a penalty. Do you expect that to continue? I dont. This team commit the most penalties in the NFL and the OL is a weakness. Bad combo for a 43yr old QB being in 2nd and 3rd and longs because of false starts and holding then have to throw with guys like Mack, Donald, and Jordan rushing at you. So yeah they are pretenders for this year. Next year IF they can clean things up, get chemistry and stay healthy I can see them being true contenders but this season nope. Brady will be like LeBron first year in LA. A lost season but then comes back the following year and make a run at a title. 

Edited by stl4life07
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Not saying the Bills are Contenders for the Superbowl but the key injuries they had against the Titans with the unknown schedule didnt help, it is what it is for that and I hope to see them in the playoffs. I am going to still think they take the division but I still want them to post a solid win in the AFC such as the Steelers who they still have left. Not to mention they have the Pats twice left and they are still the team to beat in that division until otherwise. To me in the AFC it is going to come down to Balt and KC both have bolstered their teams since playing week 1 and will be in the prime of the season with out the rust needing to be knocked off.

Seahawks, Bucs, Bears win the division and the Packers Rams and either the Saints or Cardinals lock up the wild card spot with the putrid NFC East rolling in to the playoff.
Bills, Ravens, Titans, KC win the division with Steelers, Raiders, and either Colts/Patriots/surprising Dolphins make the wild card round

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5 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

Bills - Contenders. I think they will win the AFCE. They had two bad games but I dont hold that against them much because one game was on a Tuesday which throws everything off and then they played the Chiefs who was coming off a loss to the Raiders so you know they wanted to get that bad taste out of their mouth. The Bills will be fine.

Bills had 2 distinct problems in those 2 losses

  1. The offense hasn't delivered the way it had in the first 4 games. I believe this is fixable. The Titans game was very out of sync, and the Chiefs game was horrific weather for a high powered offense. I think they rebound to somewhere inbetween the elite nature of the early season with the averageness of those past 2 games
  2. The defense has been CARVED up, particularly on the ground, on LONG, SUSTAINED drives. This is a MUCH bigger and more fundamental problem for the team. If they can't figure that out, they are in a lot of trouble against good teams. It means they will have an incredibly difficult time coming back late in the game if they get down early

I just need to see the defense start to step it up before I'm ready to put the Bills back into "Contender" category

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8 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

Bills had 2 distinct problems in those 2 losses

  1. The offense hasn't delivered the way it had in the first 4 games. I believe this is fixable. The Titans game was very out of sync, and the Chiefs game was horrific weather for a high powered offense. I think they rebound to somewhere inbetween the elite nature of the early season with the averageness of those past 2 games
  2. The defense has been CARVED up, particularly on the ground, on LONG, SUSTAINED drives. This is a MUCH bigger and more fundamental problem for the team. If they can't figure that out, they are in a lot of trouble against good teams. It means they will have an incredibly difficult time coming back late in the game if they get down early

I just need to see the defense start to step it up before I'm ready to put the Bills back into "Contender" category

I agree with you about the defense. I dont know whats wrong with the defense but I wont be too hard on them because they played the Rams offense which can score on anyone when they are running the football well and playing off of it. The Titans offense dont get enough credit outside of Henry. Then the Chiefs are the Chiefs like they can score on anyone. I just think the Bills are legit because in the past the HAD to rely on their defense and try to win low scoring games. Now thats not the case. The Rams went to the Superbowl in 2018 and they played in alot of shootouts along the way so I just fill the Bills will be fine but I do see your concern about the defense. They definitely have the talent on that side of the ball to not be looking great. 

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1 hour ago, stl4life07 said:

Buccaneers - Pretenders. Yes I said PRETENDERS. They could very well win the South but that has alot to do with the Saints not being right this season more than the Bucs being good. The Bucs lost to the Bears, they shouldve lost to the Chargers but its the Chargers they always find a way to lose. Heck they found a way to lose to the Chiefs and the Saints. The Bucs should be (3-3) right now. Now I know they have had injuries so we can say when Godwin comes back, when Evans get healthy, when Fournette gets back. Ill just say that yes when those guys get back it will look as though they will hit their stride. Ill say those guys missing games hurts the Bucs even more because they dont have the chemistry with Brady. So its not like those guys getting back into the lineup immediately things will click. They were learning each other and it got stopped due to injury. The Bucs could very well make the playoffs but between the chemistry not being their combined with this is an undisciplined team. Lightning struck once last week when they didnt give up a sack or have a penalty. Do you expect that to continue? I dont. This team commit the most penalties in the NFL and the OL is a weakness. Bad combo for a 43yr old QB being in 2nd and 3rd and longs because of false starts and holding then have to throw with guys like Mack, Donald, and Jordan rushing at you. So yeah they are pretenders for this year. Next year IF they can clean things up, get chemistry and stay healthy I can see them being true contenders but this season nope. Brady will be like LeBron first year in LA. A lost season but then comes back the following year and make a run at a title. 

I feel like I could as easily say that the Bucs "should" be 5-1 right now.  While I agree that they're unlikely to have another game where they have no penalties assessed, the Chicago game was an absurdly ridiculous penalty crapstorm that isn't likely to happen again either.  And they likely would have won both the Chicago and Green Bay games with a "not great but normal-ish" level of penalties.

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Rams are contenders regardless of the sweeping of NFC East and losses to Bills and 9ers.

9ers have had our number under McVay. Jimmy G played one of the best games I've ever seen him play. McVay got cute on the playcalling and we generated no pass rush and still almost came back. 

The Bills game we came back from down 25 in the 1st half. The PI call was bad, but as a Rams fan I can't be one to complain about PI calls. 

Our two losses I walked away feeling good about the team. Learning experiences for remainder of the year. The run game is back. The defensive play calling greatly improved over last year and our secondary is one of the best in the league talent wise, but has had mental lapses early on as they adjust to the new scheme.

Rams will be in the playoffs likely as a WC and they will be the team no one wants to play given experience, talent, and coaching. 

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