TransientTexan Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Purely from a probability standpoint, in order to even reach **coin-flip** odds of going 3-0 in the playoffs, you’d have to be such a good team that you have a win rate of 80% against playoff-caliber teams. And it’s 85% if you have to go 4-0. Most teams don’t even have an 80% win rate against average schedule strength in the regular season, much less a schedule composed entirely of playoff teams. 80% is a 12.8-3.2 record in a 16 games season. 85% is 13.6-2.4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighCalebR Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 23 minutes ago, cannondale said: I'm not pretending the 2 games didn't happen - or more importantly, how they happened. If you want to argue how the offense / defense matchup would ever favor the Packers, I'm all ears. No different than that SF team in 2019. Matchups. Or just stick with "Just shut her down" takes which give some serious pretender vibes. Idk. The tipped pick turning into a 40 yard gainer and king getting burnt at half arent hard to imagine a remedy to. Jones fumbling doesnt happen too often. Jones getting knocked out of the game isn't too frequent an occurrence. Like we'd never beat those falcons. Never beat those niners. Never beat those bucs. Are the packers a consistently good team with quality players or just the most consistently lucky? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannondale Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, HighCalebR said: Idk. The tipped pick turning into a 40 yard gainer and king getting burnt at half arent hard to imagine a remedy to. Jones fumbling doesnt happen too often. Jones getting knocked out of the game isn't too frequent an occurrence. Like we'd never beat those falcons. Never beat those niners. Never beat those bucs. Are the packers a consistently good team with quality players or just the most consistently lucky? The Packers are a good team. Just put on my gravestone "you gotta be good enough to hold teams under 30 in the playoffs" because you are always gonna run into one or three that can hold you under 30. Put a gun to Rodgers head and I bet he admits to wanting playoff games in Lambeau in hopes that he doesn't have to put up 40 to win Edited March 24, 2021 by cannondale Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighCalebR Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, cannondale said: The Packers are a good team. Just put on my gravestone "you gotta be good enough to hold teams under 30 in the playoffs" because you are always gonna run into one or three that can hold you under 30. No doubt. I just dont think the packers are incapable if they put it together. I don't have a ton of faith Barry is going to be the guy to put it together but I think he's got the pieces to be able to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighCalebR Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Just now, HighCalebR said: No doubt. I just dont think the packers are incapable if they put it together. Especially because our offense should be one whos capable of dropping 30 on anyone. I don't have a ton of faith Barry is going to be the guy to put it together but I think he's got the pieces to be able to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 4 hours ago, Packerraymond said: Funny how a 5 loss team brought the band back together and no one is going to beat them, but the #1 seed does the same thing, and our offseason sucks... well, they were the better team with more talent. We were the worse team with worse talent, so the onus is on the lesser to overtake the better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 5 hours ago, {Family Ghost} said: We lost Linsley and haven't fixed the areas that got us beat in the first place. Brady is going to laugh his *** off when he sees Kevin King and Chandler Sullivan out there again. he will probably tell them they are great players Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannondale Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Malfatron said: he will probably tell them they are great players I hate myself already, but, before or after he kisses them on the mouth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 https://www.businessinsider.com/tom-brady-contract-discounts-patriots-bargain-2018-7 @Outpost31 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, incognito_man said: https://www.businessinsider.com/tom-brady-contract-discounts-patriots-bargain-2018-7 @Outpost31 Obviously. I hate him, but damn it if I don’t respect him. If he wasn’t married to a billionaire to make that easier, I’d damn near idolize him. Unless he still open mouth kissed his son. One thing I’ll say about Brady is he’s no dummy. He knows what it takes to win Super Bowls. Defense, cap health. Tampa always was a good defense with Bowles. They just had Winston gifting points and field position for however many years. And Bill Belichick for 20 years... Brady has played flat out TERRIBLY in Championship games and he’s been to 10 Super Bowls. Rodgers has played terribly in Champipnship games and has been to one. The one he went to he’s a hero for tackling Urlacher after a bad interception. FFS why did you have to get me going? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TransientTexan Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 12 minutes ago, cannondale said: The Packers are a good team. Just put on my gravestone "you gotta be good enough to hold teams under 30 in the playoffs" because you are always gonna run into one or three that can hold you under 30. Put a gun to Rodgers head and I bet he admits to wanting playoff games in Lambeau in hopes that he doesn't have to put up 40 to win He wouldn’t have had to put up 30 if his offense hadn’t gifted TB 7 points. No need to make excuses for Rodgers. GB offense has generally not performed amazingly in Conference Championships, regardless of what the defense did. 2010= 14pnt 2014= 13pnt 2016= 21pnt 2019= 20pnt 2021= 26pnt In fact, in Rodgers’ whole career, there were really only 2 elimination games that were shootouts. 2009 vs ARZ & 2012 vs SF. 2011= 20pnt 2013= 20pnt 2015= 20pnt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Outpost31 said: Obviously. I hate him, but damn it if I don’t respect him. If he wasn’t married to a billionaire to make that easier, I’d damn near idolize him. Unless he still open mouth kissed his son. One thing I’ll say about Brady is he’s no dummy. He knows what it takes to win Super Bowls. Defense, cap health. Tampa always was a good defense with Bowles. They just had Winston gifting points and field position for however many years. And Bill Belichick for 20 years... Brady has played flat out TERRIBLY in Championship games and he’s been to 10 Super Bowls. Rodgers has played terribly in Champipnship games and has been to one. The one he went to he’s a hero for tackling Urlacher after a bad interception. FFS why did you have to get me going? Same. Brady is the GOAT system manipulator. And by system, I mean the league, his life and legacy. He has managed it all to perfection. This allows his non-GOAT QBness to be so successful. He has the long-view and has executed it to near perfection. Would want him in my Front Office in a heartbeat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannondale Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 (edited) 20 minutes ago, TransientTexan said: He wouldn’t have had to put up 30 if his offense hadn’t gifted TB 7 points. No need to make excuses for Rodgers. GB offense has generally not performed amazingly in Conference Championships, regardless of what the defense did. 2010= 14pnt 2014= 13pnt 2016= 21pnt 2019= 20pnt 2021= 26pnt In fact, in Rodgers’ whole career, there were really only 2 elimination games that were shootouts. 2009 vs ARZ & 2012 vs SF. 2011= 20pnt 2013= 20pnt 2015= 20pnt And my contention is that you run into good defenses in the playoffs. And if your poor defense lets things get out of hand - it multiplies the problems. Don't ask me how to quantify that. Brady threw 3 picks and still won and still put up 30. Rodgers outplayed him and lost against the better defense. I'll ask the same question I asked after the game. Switch QB's and what was the final score ?? Switch QB's in the SF games and what would those scores have been ?? Edited March 24, 2021 by cannondale Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 1 hour ago, skibrett15 said: well, they were the better team with more talent. We were the worse team with worse talent, so the onus is on the lesser to overtake the better. I don't think I'd agree with that, I'd be pretty confident we'd split 5 of 10 games we played. We just witnessed 2 they took. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TransientTexan Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 21 minutes ago, cannondale said: And my contention is that you run into good defenses in the playoffs. And if your poor defense lets things get out of hand - it multiplies the problems. Don't ask me how to quantify that. Brady threw 3 picks and still won and still put up 30. Rodgers outplayed him and lost against the better defense. I'll ask the same question I asked after the game. Switch QB's and what was the final score ?? Switch QB's in the SF games and what would those scores have been ?? and you also run into good offenses in the playoffs. btw, here is how often those opposing defenses gave up as much points to other teams as they surrendered to GB. 2010 CHI: 14 or more, 10/15 games= 67% 2011 NYG: 20 or more, 9/15 games= 60% 2013 SF: 20 or more, 6/15 games= 40% 2014 SEA: 13 or more, 9/15 games= 60% 2015 ARZ: 20 or more, 8/15 games= 53% 2016 ATL: 21 or more, 10/15 games= 67% 2019 SF: 20 or more, 9/15 games= 60% 2020 TB: 26 or more, 7/15 games= 47% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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