Recapping the 2021 Draft (Post-Draft Talk)

[MrOaktown_56]

1 minute ago, BayRaider said:

Actually been you for years. Anytime someone criticized McKenzie you started crying coming to the rescue. Same with Carr. Same with Gruden. Same with Mayock. You and NTL Train (really forget his name these days) always did the same thing. Defended everyone and anyone on the team, under ANY circumstances. Talk about being a homer. NTL would even defend Norton like crazy. I remember him disappearing and only posting a couple times a year after Norton was fired. You are no different. People deserve criticism on this team. And this team has had completely buffoons in charge for almost two decades. Keep crying over it and defending them like they are your parents. 

Knock it off both of you. It’s fine to disagree, but let’s keep this from getting personal. I think there’s merit to both sides here.

[Jeremy408]

9 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Actually been you for years. Anytime someone criticized McKenzie you started crying coming to the rescue. Same with Carr. Same with Gruden. Same with Mayock. You and NTL Train (really forget his name these days) always did the same thing. Defended everyone and anyone on the team, under ANY circumstances. Talk about being a homer. NTL would even defend Norton like crazy. I remember him disappearing and only posting a couple times a year after Norton was fired. You are no different. People deserve criticism on this team. And this team has had complete buffoons in charge for almost two decades. Keep crying over it and defending them like they are your parents. 

I hated McKenzie LOL

[Jeremy408]

29 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

You're all tied up in a pretzel. Quarterbacks, like every position, don't pan out because the NFL is hard. My point is that players in the first round pan out at a higher rate than players in later rounds. That right there proves, without a shadow of a doubt, that the draft is not a crapshoot. If it were, success rate would be even in every round. That's it. That's the argument.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/529369-the-50-biggest-nfl-draft-busts-of-all-time.amp.html
 

Out of these 50 draft bust that are mentioned right here why are 26 more than half of them Quarterbacks(Who are usually picked in the top 10 of every draft) as opposed to all of the rest of the positions in the first round if draft position is a direct indicator of how a player is going to turn out? 

[G]

4 hours ago, oakdb36 said:

This thread is eye-opening.

I really liked my first post and look pretty much dead on. Maybe Gruden should hire me because I'm right more than they are.  😃

"Solid but unspectacular pick. Would have preferred a trade down if he is the target but value probably wasn't offered. I was all about Allen and if not him then White. So I'm disappointed to say the least but he should start and be solid by his 2nd/3rd year. Talking about 'character' just pisses me off even more about Mack and I'd rather have Mack all 3 of the guys we drafted today. This is a 6-10 team that is 5 years out from being a contender. 3 years of drafting like this and cutting the FA's we just overpaid and then we can talk playoffs.

Greedy, Murphy, Metcalf, Butler, Samuel,  AJ Brown, Risner any of those I'll be pleased with. Taylor, Ford ok, everything else is a reach. Trade down probable."

DAMN I'M GOOD LOL    =P

[jpaulthe1st]

6 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Arnette was a clear Gruden pick. Fiesty in coverage and likes to tackle. Every Gruden pick in history of existence has busted. 
 

Leatherwood was a Cable pick so I agree there’s hope he can be a good RT. Although I’m still expecting Average RT, Below-Average RT, or Stud Guard. 
 

However, that doesn’t mean Leatherwood wasn’t over-drafted according to a value perspective. And before you list “according to who?” there has only been four major consensus reaches since 2019: Clelin Ferrell, Tytus Howard, Damon Arnette, and Alex Leatherwood. So the Raiders are just smarter than everyone else and the consensus is wrong? The consensus sure hasn’t been wrong on Ferrell and Arnette so far. 

It’s pretty much a consensus the Seahawks reached three consecutive years on Rashaad Penny, L.J. Collier, and Jordyn Brooks. I’m sure if I go through all 32 teams I can find 10-15 consensus reaches. 

Edited May 3, 2021 by jpaulthe1st

[BayRaider]

13 minutes ago, jpaulthe1st said:

It’s pretty much a consensus the Seahawks reached three consecutive years on Rashaad Penny, L.J. Collier, and Jordyn Brooks. I’m sure if I go through all 32 teams I can find 10-15 consensus reached. 

Collier was a reach but like a half round reach. Mid 2nd Rounder taken at Pick 29 if my memory serves right. 

As for Brooks, nope. Dude climbed draft boards like crazy the final two weeks. He was Top 40 a lot of boards. 

[jpaulthe1st]

2 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

You're all tied up in a pretzel. Quarterbacks, like every position, don't pan out because the NFL is hard. My point is that players in the first round pan out at a higher rate than players in later rounds. That right there proves, without a shadow of a doubt, that the draft is not a crapshoot. If it were, success rate would be even in every round. That's it. That's the argument.

Completely agree and don’t really understand how it’s debatable. If the draft truly were a crapshoot then the rate of success would be within a similar range across all positions in all 7 rounds. The draft is anything but a crapshoot. 

[jpaulthe1st]

2 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Collier was a reach but like a half round reach. Mid 2nd Rounder taken at Pick 29 if my memory serves right. 

As for Brooks, nope. Dude climbed draft boards like crazy the final two weeks. He was Top 40 a lot of boards. 

I see you conveniently ignored the Penny reach. Even still, you’re missing the point.....the Seahawks are just one team and if I had the time to review the other 30 teams there surely have been more than 3-4 consensus 1st round reaches in the last 3 years.  The hyperbolic assertions are out of control. 

[BayRaider]

16 minutes ago, jpaulthe1st said:

I see you conveniently ignored the Penny reach. Even still, you’re missing the point.....the Seahawks are just one team and if I had the time to review the other 30 teams there surely have been more than 3-4 consensus 1st round reaches in the last 3 years.  The hyperbolic assertions are out of control. 

Show me “full round” reaches like you are claiming. Only the Raiders make full round 30+ pick reaches like Damon Arnette and Alex Leatherwood. The only other full round reach that even comes to mind in the past three years is Tytus Howard, and I do agree that was even worse than the Arnette and Leatherwood reach. 

[Mr Raider]

2 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

I would call 2/3 of starters being from a single round of the draft being pretty vast. Of those teams that you listed, San Francisco and Chicago just drafted first rounders to replace their non-first round starters. And if you think including second and third round starters bolsters your argument, it doesn't. Point is, more good players are drafted early than late. Thus, the draft is not as "random" as you claim.

There's a lot of other things that go into why so many QBs that are starters were drafted in the first round. 

It doesn't mean that without a doubt they belong as the starter over guys drafted later. Those decisions are made by humans, humans make mistakes, they show poor judgment, they struggle with pride, outside pressure/noise, they have motives, they have biases. 

All of those things can factor in to a QB being named a starter over a guy drafted later that may actually be a better player or could do the job at virtually the same level. That's only multiplied when you consider that first round picks are going to get the longest leashes, the most chances, the most patience, the most coaching attention, and on and on. They are much bigger investments. They equal coaches/gms getting paid big extensions or looking at uprooting their family and finding a new (usually less paying) job. 

Most QBs are starters because the most successful college QBs get drafted there. But a host of other things outside of a one to one head on comparison with other lower drafted guys at the position in terms of ability. All of those outside factors play a big part in who gets named starter immediately and thus who gets the experience needed to improve, who gets the most attention from the coaches, who gets the scheme designed around their strengths, who gets patience to make mistakes and learn from them, who gets other players drafted to accent their strengths and hide weaknesses, and on and on. And all of that has a trickle down effect to who starts, when they start, how much they improve, etc. 

I don't think QBs having a lot of starters drafted in the first round precludes the notion that the draft is a crap shoot. It shows that they are the bigger investments, the guys coaches and front offices need to succeed so they get the most time, experience, patience, and built around. It shows that these evaluations are made by humans that make poor decisions, can be biased, can be stubborn to admit a mistake, can have tunnel vision, and can show favoritism. 

The draft IMO is much closer to gambling than it is a science. Countless guys have been sure things and busted. Countless others have been afterthoughts that became HOF caliber. When you draft a guy you are making at best an educated guess and prediction of that person being able to have success. Even with all the countless hours put in watching these guys, knowing their medical history, actually meeting with them, having detailed background information, the league still hits on around 50% of first round picks... That says that even the very best in the business are often times wrong as many times as they are right. And the wrongs and rights aren't weighed or created equally.

The talk about value is a different one. And I'm not defending the Leatherwood selection itself. But really if he's good it won't matter it will go down as a win for Mayock and Gruden. If he isnt, they will have to answer to that. Front offices and coaches absolutely can be better or worse at drafting than other teams. But that doesn't mean it's not largely a crap shoot as a whole. And one position having X amount of starters doesn't make that not the case. It just means they are the biggest investments, and that brings a long a lot of human emotions that can bring an unbiased reason for why and when they start and how their careers progress. Them starting alone doesn't mean guys drafted later couldn't produce similar quality in performance on the whole. And all that doesn't even mention that because of positional value most QBs are drafted in the first couple of rounds. You routinely see 2, 3, 4 or 5 go in the first and then significantly less each round. It's one of the only positions on the team that doesn't have multiple players at the same position playing at the same time. Thus less great drafted overall, it makes the position more valuable, and it means less starting opportunities for players drafted later. Not the case for tackles, guards, wide receivers, tight ends, defensive ends, defensive tackles, linebackers, cornerbacks, safeties. Of course more starters at the most important position are going to be highly drafted. There's a scarcity to it, there the most in demand position, and you only have one starter so you probably aren't often making the call to wait on the QB.

[jpaulthe1st]

25 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Show me “full round” reaches like you are claiming. Only the Raiders make full round 30+ pick reaches like Damon Arnette and Alex Leatherwood. The only other full round reach that even comes to mind in the past three years is Tytus Howard, and I do agree that was even worse than the Arnette and Leatherwood reach. 

I gave you three from one team. Do the rest of the research yourself. 

[RaidersAreOne]

Kollmann breaks down his top players at each position. We have 2 of the 4 tier 1 Safeties and Koonce in the tier 4 of Edge guys. 

[oakdb36]

5 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Actually been you for years. Anytime someone criticized McKenzie you started crying coming to the rescue. Same with Carr. Same with Gruden. Same with Mayock. You and NTL Train (really forget his name these days) always did the same thing. Defended everyone and anyone on the team, under ANY circumstances. Talk about being a homer. NTL would even defend Norton like crazy. I remember him disappearing and only posting a couple times a year after Norton was fired. You are no different. People deserve criticism on this team. And this team has had complete buffoons in charge for almost two decades. Keep crying over it and defending them like they are your parents. 

He has been highly critical of Gruden actually. Maybe Mayock too although i'm not sure about that.

[RaidersAreOne]

 

[Dessie]

3 hours ago, oakdb36 said:

He has been highly critical of Gruden actually. Maybe Mayock too although i'm not sure about that.

Yeah I have on Gruden and have been critical of Mayock on the value of our picks. Would have said the same about Leatherwood but the same experts all had Jenkins, Moehrig, JOK, as 1st round picks so they were way off on those so not unreasonable to think they were way off on Leatherwood.