Recapping the 2021 Draft (Post-Draft Talk)

[Darbsk]

13 hours ago, BayRaider said:

At the start of the 2023 season, I have a feeling Ferrell will be gone and off the team, Arnette will be playing NCB instead of Outside Corner, and Leatherwood will be playing guard. Gruden will have just made another 1st Round Reach in the 2023 Draft and @Dessie will say "Well, you never know! Maybe all the teams had him high and the media sucks!". 

Anything to defend this team and it's horrendous decision making over the past 19 years. 

Oh no, don't put that thought into my head........... That really would be depressing stuff. 

I'm going to be optimistic.........Ferrell is going to be the breakout player this year 😀 I picked him last year too but hey ho!

[BackinBlack]

13 hours ago, BayRaider said:

At the start of the 2023 season, I have a feeling Ferrell will be gone and off the team, Arnette will be playing NCB instead of Outside Corner, and Leatherwood will be playing guard. Gruden will have just made another 1st Round Reach in the 2023 Draft and @Dessie will say "Well, you never know! Maybe all the teams had him high and the media sucks!". 

Anything to defend this team and it's horrendous decision making over the past 19 years. 

Thats great, but I am not just going to take your feelings as a fact. 
If that happens, cheers you called it. 

If Alex turns out to be great, you will be wrong
Just like YOU WERE WRONG, in wanting Cle at 4.

Your feelings, are just feelings until we see how things play out, just like mine and everyone else whos not a future teller

Edited May 3, 2021 by BackinBlack

[Darbsk]

11 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Show me “full round” reaches like you are claiming. Only the Raiders make full round 30+ pick reaches like Damon Arnette and Alex Leatherwood. The only other full round reach that even comes to mind in the past three years is Tytus Howard, and I do agree that was even worse than the Arnette and Leatherwood reach. 

Isn't the very term 'reach' super subjective though? One person's reach is another person's great value diamond in the rough. Who's 'value chart' do you go off? None of us know the teams true values, they smoke screen all the time anyway and the media talking heads clearly have ulterior motives and agendas they like to push and certain players they like to foist onto us so they are not Reliable and unbiased either. 

I think the only thing you can do is say that you regard it as a reach based on your own valuation or if it's an obvious out of sync type pick, like a couple rounds for example.

Edited May 3, 2021 by Darbsk

[Rich7sena]

11 hours ago, Mr Raider said:

The draft IMO is much closer to gambling than it is a science. Countless guys have been sure things and busted. Countless others have been afterthoughts that became HOF caliber. When you draft a guy you are making at best an educated guess and prediction of that person being able to have success. Even with all the countless hours put in watching these guys, knowing their medical history, actually meeting with them, having detailed background information, the league still hits on around 50% of first round picks... That says that even the very best in the business are often times wrong as many times as they are right. And the wrongs and rights aren't weighed or created equally.

The talk about value is a different one. And I'm not defending the Leatherwood selection itself. But really if he's good it won't matter it will go down as a win for Mayock and Gruden. If he isnt, they will have to answer to that. Front offices and coaches absolutely can be better or worse at drafting than other teams. But that doesn't mean it's not largely a crap shoot as a whole. And one position having X amount of starters doesn't make that not the case. It just means they are the biggest investments, and that brings a long a lot of human emotions that can bring an unbiased reason for why and when they start and how their careers progress. Them starting alone doesn't mean guys drafted later couldn't produce similar quality in performance on the whole. And all that doesn't even mention that because of positional value most QBs are drafted in the first couple of rounds. You routinely see 2, 3, 4 or 5 go in the first and then significantly less each round. It's one of the only positions on the team that doesn't have multiple players at the same position playing at the same time. Thus less great drafted overall, it makes the position more valuable, and it means less starting opportunities for players drafted later. Not the case for tackles, guards, wide receivers, tight ends, defensive ends, defensive tackles, linebackers, cornerbacks, safeties. Of course more starters at the most important position are going to be highly drafted. There's a scarcity to it, there the most in demand position, and you only have one starter so you probably aren't often making the call to wait on the QB.

You and others are not understanding odds. Think of it this way. If the draft were a crapshoot, the success rate in round 1 through round 7 will be evenly distributed. Instead, the actual success rate is much higher in round 1 and gets progressively worse in rounds 2-7. You're fixated on the "bust rate." The NFL is a hard league to succeed in so the vast majority of all players drafted will not succeed in the NFL. So, 50/50 is actually quite high of a success rate when you factor in that most draftable players will not have a successful NFL career. If the the draft were an actual crapshoot, film watching would not matter, the combine would not matter, etc. You simply would randomly pick a name from a list of draftable players. If the draft were conducted like that, then over time the success rate would even out between every round.

I'll agree that the draft is more like gambling than a science (which is why fans could do just as good a job selecting players than most GMs), but it isn't a crapshoot. In fact, we often analogize to the stock market when we say player's stocks are rising and falling.

[oakdb36]

Payton Turner was ranked as low as 118th by PFN (69 average ranking from the 6 sources i used). He went 28th to the Saints.

[Rich7sena]

3 minutes ago, oakdb36 said:

Payton Turner was ranked as low as 118th by PFN (69 average ranking from the 6 sources i used). He went 28th to the Saints.

I watched very little of Turner, but I don't think it's absurd to think he's a first round talent. I wouldn't have a problem with the Leatherwood pick if I thought he was a first round talent.

[oakdb36]

Did we get any explanation on JOK dropping like that? He was seen as a top 20 player everywhere i looked.

[oakdb36]

Just now, Rich7sena said:

I watched very little of Turner, but I don't think it's absurd to think he's a first round talent. I wouldn't have a problem with the Leatherwood pick if I thought he was a first round talent.

It's subjective and that's not something i'd argue with anybody. If you think someone is a first round player, that's perfectly fine. I'm looking for a consensus somewhere though because i know everybody is regularly wrong about prospects. If there's someone batting 100%, tell me who it is and i'll use his opinion as the gospel. Until then.

[Rich7sena]

7 minutes ago, oakdb36 said:

Did we get any explanation on JOK dropping like that? He was seen as a top 20 player everywhere i looked.

I think it has to do with his position-less role at ND and lack of athletic testing.

3 minutes ago, oakdb36 said:

It's subjective and that's not something i'd argue with anybody. If you think someone is a first round player, that's perfectly fine. I'm looking for a consensus somewhere though because i know everybody is regularly wrong about prospects. If there's someone batting 100%, tell me who it is and i'll use his opinion as the gospel. Until then.

I don't know what you're getting at, but this website is based on layman player evals. We get caught up in trying to figure out what media scouts think when we can go and watch ourselves. I mean, most media scouts (i.e. guys on the internet) have as much experience evaluating players as we do.

[BackinBlack]

18 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

You and others are not understanding odds. Think of it this way. If the draft were a crapshoot, the success rate in round 1 through round 7 will be evenly distributed. Instead, the actual success rate is much higher in round 1 and gets progressively worse in rounds 2-7. You're fixated on the "bust rate." The NFL is a hard league to succeed in so the vast majority of all players drafted will not succeed in the NFL. So, 50/50 is actually quite high of a success rate when you factor in that most draftable players will not have a successful NFL career. If the the draft were an actual crapshoot, film watching would not matter, the combine would not matter, etc. You simply would randomly pick a name from a list of draftable players. If the draft were conducted like that, then over time the success rate would even out between every round.

I'll agree that the draft is more like gambling than a science (which is why fans could do just as good a job selecting players than most GMs), but it isn't a crapshoot. In fact, we often analogize to the stock market when we say player's stocks are rising and falling.

I think we can all agree that the anticipated better player gets drafted higher

But who has a better career Lawerence or Fields? 
No idea.

There is a lot more to it then just who is the better player. Scheme, coaching, heck even division rivals can play into it. (IE, if your drafted to the NFCE you have an easier shot at playoffs, and some rank that really high as an indivual stat) 

People call the draft a crapshoot, because ultimately any player can bust. Any player could get injured at anytime. Any player could retire earlier (Luck)

[Jerry]

17 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

It's not a guessing game, though. If it were, then we would see quality starter/pro bowlers/allpro players evenly distributed in all rounds. And, while we're here, I was very right in that thread and continue to be. @Jerry, still think Gary is "turible?

Who's Gary?  Most of what I say on this forum isn't serious.  I'm just glad other posters are actually starting to notice I'm a part of some of these conversations.  Anyway yeah clue me in, I'm at work and my morning sucks.

[Jerry]

On 5/2/2021 at 4:59 AM, oakdb36 said:

Jerry is the best.

Thanks man. 

That isn't me but I saw your post in the top liked list and just assumed the post was about me.

[oakdb36]

5 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

I think it has to do with his position-less role at ND and lack of athletic testing.

I don't know what you're getting at, but this website is based on layman player evals. We get caught up in trying to figure out what media scouts think when we can go and watch ourselves. I mean, most media scouts (i.e. guys on the internet) have as much experience evaluating players as we do.

I'm saying that if we both evaluate 1 guy and don't rank him anywhere close, how are we going to agree on his value come draft day. Chances are we've both been wrong before. I know i have been on many guys every single year. So what i'm saying is you think Turner is a 1st round pick, a lot of others don't. I could choose to trust you but why would I trust you more than them? Then what's his real value if it lands in a wide range depending on the source? Value is in the eye of the beholder here.

[Jerry]

I just came in to say I feel pretty good about our team and the draft overall.  I think Leatherwood, regardless of where he plays (RG, RT), we are set on the OL.  Luckily we have a reliable RT in D. Good.  I think we really did well addressing our DB positions.  We got some interesting players.  I think Bradley found his guys and we got them.  I'm hoping Bradley can coach these guys up better than PG did.  I'm looking forward to the season and hope we rack up 10 wins.  I think my overall favorite pick is Koonce, and it's really just in hopes that he can become this season's Crosby.  I love pass rushers man.  I hope we have the ammunition we need on defense to turn this thing around over night.  Also, glad we drafted D. Deablo, even if he doesn't pan out, his name is still awesome.

That is all.

[Jerry]

On 5/1/2021 at 3:48 PM, NickButera said:

After the free agency spend on the DLine and watching this.... They're hell-bent on fixing this defense. Also shows you how confident they are in Carr and the offense. I really thought we'd be adding another WR though. Losing Agholor and replacing him with snead is a bit tough. Would have liked one more piece.

John Brown.  I think we'll be fine.