Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2021 (All up)

[MikeT14]

Washington at #13 (21), #21 (20), #2 (19), and #9 (18) over your past 4 years for an average slot of 11 to 12. I'd take that. Unfortunately, our 19 year was Dwayne, so in hindsight not as good. 

[HTTRDynasty]

9 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

Washington at #13 (21), #21 (20), #2 (19), and #9 (18) over your past 4 years for an average slot of 11 to 12. I'd take that. Unfortunately, our 19 year was Dwayne, so in hindsight not as good. 

Yeah, though it is a win that we didn't have to trade up for him, even though that was the prevailing narrative heading into the draft.  Imagine doing that and missing out on Young the following year as a result...

We also came away with McLaurin, Sweat, Holcomb, Moreland, and Harmon, which I'd call a successful draft.

[MikeT14]

Didn't dig through to see if anyone had done this yet, but a rolling tally of @goldfishwars's rankings for teams since 2018. 

Wasn't quite the bell curve I was expecting (a little more skewed than normal). Obviously this is one poster's opinion, but it's still something to look at. Nice job by those teams that averaged in the Top 10 (Balt, NYJ, Denver, Carolina, Miami). Ironically or not, only one was a playoff team last year. Of the teams in the 20's, 5 of the 9 were playoff teams. A lot factors go into this, but I just see it as interesting nonetheless.

Teams with the #1 pick in the draft finished 11th, 1st, 6th, and 21st (9.75 average). The Bears are a rollercoaster of extreme highs and lows haha. 

 

	2021	2020	2019	2018	Avg
Baltimore	7	2	4	4	4.25
NYJ	2	9	13	5	7.25
Denver	4	1	17	8	7.5
Carolina	3	4	9	20	9
Miami	5	8	7	16	9
Arizona	19	12	1	10	10.5
WFT	13	21	2	9	11.25
Buffalo	16	16	3	17	13
Minnesota	15	7	8	22	13
Cleveland	9	10	23	11	13.25
Cincy	17	6	25	7	13.75
JAX	21	5	19	12	14.25
LAC	8	20	11	19	14.5
Dallas	28	3	26	6	15.75
Chicago	1	30	31	2	16
TB	23	15	27	1	16.5
Indy	27	18	12	13	17.5
NYG	11	14	32	15	18
Detroit	6	11	28	28	18.25
GB	24	31	15	3	18.25
Philly	10	19	18	26	18.25
Tenn	20	27	5	21	18.25
NE	14	26	16	18	18.5
KC	12	17	21	31	20.25
LVR	26	13	20	27	21.5
Pitt	25	28	10	24	21.75
Atlanta	22	24	30	14	22.5
LAR	31	22	14	23	22.5
SF	18	23	24	25	22.5
Seattle	29	29	6	30	23.5
Houston	32	32	22	29	28.75
NO	30	25	29	32	29

[JAF-N72EX]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

And yet he only got a 1 year, $4.25M deal which ranks 46th in AAV of all OTs.  That's a stopgap salary, not legitimate starting OT money.

Plus 2 void years. What's your point? I don't care what he makes or where he ranks in AAV.  How much a player makes does not always determine how good or bad they are. Jimmy G ranks like 10th in AAV among QBs. Just because he's making franchise QB money doesn't make him a legit franchise QB. That's the most ridiculous thing you've said yet.

 

[Daniel]

Titans rankings have aged pretty well.

2018: Middle to low ranking. Stole Landry, but got a disappointing but serviceable starter in Evans, Cruikshank is a depth contributor.

2019: Top 5 draft for sure. Simmons and Brown are among the best at their positions, Davis is a solid starter.

2020: Low ranking justified by Isaiah Wilson, even if they hit on Evans and Fulton.

[49ersfan]

PFF is also revisting prior year draft grades if anyone is interested. I believe they've only done 2019 & 2018 so far. Not sure if any other years will be included 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-regrading-2019-nfl-draft-classes-tennessee-titans-san-francisco-49ers

https://www.pff.com/news/regrading-the-2018-nfl-draft-classes-ravens-bills-and-buccaneers-among-nfls-biggest-winners

 

Edited May 28, 2021 by 49ersfan

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Plus 2 void years. What's your point? I don't care what he makes or where he ranks in AAV.  How much a player makes does not always determine how good or bad they are. Jimmy G ranks like 10th in AAV among QBs. Just because he's making franchise QB money doesn't make him a legit franchise QB. That's the most ridiculous thing you've said yet.

Not sure bringing up void years helps your argument.  The only reason teams add void years is to help spread cap hits out over future years, particularly when the cap crunch is an issue.  The point I was trying to make is that if Ifedi was viewed as viable starting OL (and not just a stopgap) he would have either received a higher AAV or a long-term deal.  He received neither.  Even in a depressed FA market, he's getting paid peanuts.  And if you're going to use Jimmy G as an example as the end-all, be-all to the discussion you're missing the part where Jimmy G was paid on the 5 game stint in 2017 AND when I've repeatedly said this offseason he was grossly overpaid.  The onus is on you to prove he's a viable starting OL.  The only thing you've done thus far is throw out a strawman argument.

[THE DUKE]

On 5/8/2021 at 5:45 PM, goldfishwars said:

17. Cincinnati Bengals

 

This Class In One Sentence:
A solid attempt to re-stock a roster by a team whose pre-draft needs lined up well with the depth at those spots.

Pre-Draft Needs 
OT, IOL, TE, DL, LB, WR

Selections
1. 5. Ja'Marr Chase - LSU | WR |
2. 46. Jackson Carman - Clemson | OT |
3. 69. Joseph Ossai - Texas | DE |
4. 111. Cameron Sample - Tulane | DE |
4. 122. Tyler Shelvin - LSU | DT |
4. 139. D'Ante Smith - East Carolina | OT |
5. 149. Evan McPherson - Florida | K |
6. 190. Trey Hill - Georgia | C |
6. 202. Chris Evans - Michigan | RB |
7. 235. Wyatt Hubert - Kansas State | DE |

Picks Heading In
5.
38. 
69. 
111. 
149. 
190. 
202. 
235. 

What I Liked
I really like the trade down in the second round, netting picks 122 and 139 which were then converted into a potential starting nose tackle and a swing tackle. That’s why I always push back when people say ‘well, we only gave up x’ – you also gave up real football players that can play for your team, especially when you’re actively trying to get better.  I also like the multiple shots at offensive line, I think that was exactly the way to play it - attack with volume and see what hits. 

I really like Chase the player and the fact he is teaming up with his old college teammate. I like that he has prototypical x receiver qualities, in a draft where not many of those guys existed. He’s an explosive boundary receiver with rare athleticism and play strength and played well against the best in the SEC. I quite like Joe Ossai, certainly at 69 as opposed to the first-round attention he was getting earlier in the process. This feels like a decent fit for that new hybrid front on defens as a finesse rusher who is going to have to learn to play better against top tier NFL tackles. 

Cam Sample is really nice at 111 and gets to join his brother Drew in Cinci, which is nice for those guys and the family. He’s kind of the opposite of Ossai, someone who will crash down on the edges and can collapse the pocket. Tyler Shelvin is someone who should help the run defense inside, without offering anything in the pass-rush department. Chris Evans in the 6th is really interesting, a weird history at Michigan – but he’s built like the running back prototype and can impact the game as a runner and receiver. 

What I Didn’t Like
I think whatever you think about this class depends on which side of the Chase versus Sewell debate you sit on and then whether you think Jackson Carman was the right offensive lineman to plump for in the second round once that was settled. Personally, I wasn’t second round big on him. I presume he was an Alex Leatherwood compromise, someone who can play some guard and be groomed to slot in at tackle later. Carman is still young and moves well, he's just a little unrefined which doesn't feel perfect when Cincinnati might need him to hit the ground running. 

I like that they took shots at offensive line, I just wonder whether Cinci would have been better placed bringing in higher floor prospects. Two of their selections have had conditioning questions (Carman and Trey Hill) and one long dude (D’Ante Smith) is talented but needs to hit the weight room. Perhaps that is harsh. 
 

Damn, kind of nailed it again for the Bengals.

Chase vs Sewell was the big discussion, and I think the Bengals are pretty happy with Chase.  Burrow, Chase, and Higgins are set to be the backbone of the offense for the next 5 years with filling in people around them.

Pretty much spot on with concerns about our oline drafting.  Carman, Smith, and Hill have all been disappointing.  Carman might retain some value as a backup swing tackle, but when they could have had Creed Humphry or Landen Dickenson....ouch.  D'Ante Smith has been given every chance one could want and always comes up lacking.  Decent chance he's cut if one more IOL piece steps up like Jaxson Kirkland or Ben Brown.  If anything, your assessment of the oline picks wasn't harsh enough, lol.

Sample has been solid if unspectacular depth, but a guy most coaches would like to have on their roster.  He'll be in a battle for the last Edge spot this year though, but he may be the front runner ahead of Jeffrey Gunter, Tarell Basham, and Raymond Johnson

Ossai missed his rookie year, but showed a lot of pass rush juice in 2022.  That penalty to close out the AFCCG is what gets remembered, but he had a real solid de facto rookie year last year as it was his first year playing.  Will definitely have a big role in 2023 along with Myles Murphy backing up Hendrickson and Hubbard.  Depth at edge is as good as it's been for a long time in Cincinnati.

Only thing close to a "miss" from this report was Shelvin.  It was apparently pretty much immediately he wasn't a NFL player.  They tried for a season, but I think he's out of the league now.

Chris Evans flashed a bit and is still on the roster, but he rarely sees the field because of ball security issues.  He's a potential cut if the Bengals only keep 3 RBs or find a UDFA gem.  Mixon, Chase Brown, and Trayveon Williams are all essentially roster locks.

Didn't really mention the kicker pick, but we're pretty happy with that.  McPherson had a great rookie year and once our long snapper situation got settled after injury issues early, he looked good again.  With Cal Adomitis settled in as long snapper now, I think McPherson gets back to form.  A good kicker is well worth a fifth round pick.

Once again, good work.

[ET80]

On 5/2/2021 at 1:45 PM, goldfishwars said:

3. 67. Davis Mills - Stanford | QB |

3. 89. Nico Collins - Michigan | WR |

5. 147. Brevin Jordan - Miami (FL) | TE |

5. 170. Garret Wallow -  TCU | LB |

6. 195. Roy Lopez - Arizona | DT |

Eh… Nico Collins isn’t bad, Roy Lopez is a decent rotational DT, Garrett Wallow is a ST/reserve LB who really doesn’t do anything. 

But yeah, this class is cheeks.