2022 CFB Talk/Draft Prospects

[DreamKid]

17 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

Personally I never realized how short Stingley’s arms are as well. He’s only 24th percentile at 30 5/8” himself. Whereas Revis, who he’s often compared to is at 32 5/8” and 82nd percentile length.

I’m trying not to overthink the Stingley evaluation, but along with two years of not playing at an elite level (albeit with excuses for such), it does provide some pause.

I’d certainly take him at 14 if he falls, but I’m unsure enough that maybe I wouldn’t trade up for him.

Ideally you want your CBs to meet that 31" threshold, but 30 5/8" arms with a 38.5 Vert and sub 4.4 speed is a more than solid combination. It'd be more concerning if he didn't have the speed or bunnies to compensate. 

Stingley has his flags, but it seems like every Top 30 prospect in this class does. That's probably why I'm most comfortable just gambling on him. CFB Freshman Phenom/GOAT, 20 Y/O, chip on his shoulder, tons of LSU brothers in the NFL for him to compete against(It's clear all those guys push each other + Queen in house, and Chase on the Bengals), major position of need. IDK I think he's the guy at this point.

Just a matter of him making it to us or not. His ceiling probably starts at 9 to the Seahawks and his absolute floor is at 14 to us. 

A trade up will likely cost a 3rd+, so it comes down to just how much the Ravens like him or someone else who might fall. 

[Ray Reed]

@diamondbull424 Pretty strongly disagree with your assessment of McDuffie’s physicality and him being a potential problem against the run. I see his willingness in run support & his competitive toughness as one of his strengths. Nearly every respectable evaluator does as well...DJ, Kiper, McShay, etc. all have talked about his physicality, pursuit, and run support as a positive in their writeups. 

 

 

I think “he doesn’t play like a raven” is entirely subjective as well. Anthony Averett didn’t tackle. Peters doesn’t tackle. Marcus Williams doesn’t tackle. McDuffie shows way more want to than all of those guys in that aspect. 

Agree to disagree 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Ray Reed

[diamondbull424]

9 hours ago, DreamKid said:

Every bit of Leo Chenal's testing is bonkers, but that SS time of 3.94 is actually comical it's so insane. 

With him I don’t see it on the field. You’d think someone that can move like that, would move more fluidly on the field, whereas he sort of moves very choppy and mechanical. Doesn’t look like he ilks out the full scope of his athleticism. Chad Muma tested worse, but moreso looks the part on tape comparatively IMO.

[diamondbull424]

6 hours ago, DreamKid said:

Reminder that even the players we want to fall are far from perfect. This 22' 1st Round is a minefield and I hate it.

 

I don’t discount KT here, with the number of double teams, I think that number is impressive.

Also I’m very high on Arnold Ebiketie, dude plays like a Raven IMO.

[baltimoreRebel]

I'm not sure I'm buying into all the talk that Kyle Hamilton is moving down some draft boards... BUT! 

If he comes close to our striking range, my goodness, it's a no brainer. Run the card up and laugh at the league, my goodness. 

Edited April 15, 2022 by baltimoreRebel

[Ray Reed]

If we take Penning at 14 ill be absolutely sick man

[wackywabbit]

1 hour ago, Ray Reed said:

If we take Penning at 14 ill be absolutely sick man

I'll restate my view that I wouldn't be excited about him at 14, but he is the literal bottom end of the names I've seen that I would understand if we are stationary at 14.

Zeus Jr had plenty of awful pass block sets and still does with KC, but he was still a tremendous value add for our team.

Edited April 15, 2022 by wackywabbit

[Ray Reed]

25 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

I'll restate my view that I wouldn't be excited about him at 14, but he is the literal bottom end of the names I've seen that I would understand if we are stationary at 14.

Zeus Jr had plenty of awful pass block sets and still does with KC, but he was still a tremendous value add for our team.

Most of that value came from him being a 3rd round pick who surprised though. The Ravens wouldn’t have even considered him at 14, and they shouldn’t with Penning IMO. 

[coordinator0]

8 hours ago, baltimoreRebel said:

I'm not sure I'm buying into all the talk that Kyle Hamilton is moving down some draft boards... BUT! 

If he comes close to our striking range, my goodness, it's a no brainer. Run the card up and laugh at the league, my goodness. 

Yeah. The versatility to move him and Clark around the field would be insane. That would be an absolute plus to the defense. I don't care about loading up for the traditional sets. It's looking more and more like the best path by far for the 14th pick is BPA. Hamilton would be it.

[diamondbull424]

23 hours ago, DreamKid said:

Saw this today-

 

Meh, I know this isn’t you passing judgment, but just speaking towards the tweet. Completely different prospect profiles beyond the rudimentary breakdown above.

1. MVS breakout age of 22.9 (4th percentile) vs CW breakout age of 20.3 (53rd percentile)
2. MVS college YPR 16.6 (74th per) vs CW college YPR 18.6 (89th per)
3. MVS College Dominator 26.7 (42nd per) vs CW college dominator 44.0 (90th per)
4. MVS burst = 15th percentile and 69th percentile catch radius vs CW burst = 95th percentile and 97th percentile catch radius.

MVS is a tall fast player that runs a 4.37, but his speed is more consistent, he’s got one gear of fast speed, whereas Watson is fast, but similar to guys like Moss and Tyreek seem to have an afterburner mode where they put on the jets and can’t be caught.

MVS also looks more like a 4.41 kind of guy on tape IMO, he looks fast, but not 4.37 fast when he has his pads on. Whereas Watson looks more like a 4.32 kind of guy on tape. He legitimately looks faster when he’s amped by hyper athletic humans trying to chase him in the open field.

Watson is the perfect WR for Lamar, it genuinely sucks that he decides to pop up into a draft where we’ve got so many other needs that selecting him would be a luxury.

[diamondbull424]

On 4/15/2022 at 8:37 AM, Ray Reed said:

@diamondbull424 Pretty strongly disagree with your assessment of McDuffie’s physicality and him being a potential problem against the run. I see his willingness in run support & his competitive toughness as one of his strengths. Nearly every respectable evaluator does as well...DJ, Kiper, McShay, etc. all have talked about his physicality, pursuit, and run support as a positive in their writeups. 

 

 

I think “he doesn’t play like a raven” is entirely subjective as well. Anthony Averett didn’t tackle. Peters doesn’t tackle. Marcus Williams doesn’t tackle. McDuffie shows way more want to than all of those guys in that aspect. 

Agree to disagree 

Fair point about Marcus Peters and Anthony Averett, but just because AA was a quality corner doesn’t mean I felt like he “plays like a Raven”. When I think “play like a Raven” I think about physicality, about attacking, predator mentality.

For example when I think of a small corner that “played like a Raven” it was Lardarius Webb. Do played with a reckless abandon, he attacked the ball in the air, and he attacked the runner on the ground.

McDuffie has a more passive mentality IMO. It’s not an unwillingness to NOT get involved in trash, there’s plenty of evidence to the contrary that he will go in and make a play within trash, but he also IMO waits for contact vs forcing the issue.

“Trent McDuffie will tackle, tackle not ankle tackle”
- This is the clip I was referring to before. He’s got a free hit on a player with little momentum. It gets hyped up but he was a free runner off the edge, good play, but nothing crazy. Tavon Young does this plenty… and this isn’t to say I don’t like Tavon Young, but Young also wasn’t someone I’d consider to be a 1st round talent. I also feel like McDuffie kills his momentum some on this tackle to breakdown and that led to a tackle where if he didn’t have help, I feel turns into a missed tackle.

That said I figured I’d give TMD some more time and attention. So I thought I was rewatching the same tape as above, but this one is more extensive, and does paint a better picture of TMD than the film above. They must’ve removed some of his good plays.

Here is my breakdown of the plays that stood out to me on some level:
0:25- Breaks down, waits for RB to attack him, misses tackle, and gets blocked. Goes from a possible stop at 5 yds, to a first down because McDuffie passively attacks the ball carrier vs attacking the ball.

:50- highlight reel play, runner has no momentum and TM is full speed. Great hustle play, but this type of play gets overhyped IMO.

1:17- quality run support play
3:56- great goal line play in run support.

5:53- Unable to get off block downfield. Goes Trevor Penning in retaliation.
8:09- Nicely takes on a pulling block.
10:38- Nice effort to get inside to offer support.

So while I assumed the other was a full game tape for two games, it must’ve pick and chose the plays that were added and thus offered less of a fair evaluation. Still, I don’t come away with any absolute wow plays. He made the plays in front of him, but I don’t think he lays the hammer at all, even when he’s got a free hit in the backfield, I came away feeling in the NFL against better competition, that’s potentially a broken tackle.

He gives the effort, but isn’t a physical guy nor an aggressor IMO. He won’t be confused for a LB by anyone.

My thing is, while he’s very assignment driven and intelligent, I want to see some tape of him vs someone legitimate and/or making elite splash plays.

I’ve seen two overhyped plays (“tackle tackle” and “great range”) and that’s the bulk of what I’ve seen from TMD. Whereas I can watch Booth against legit WR options that will be playing on Sundays, same with Stingley, same with Elam, same with Hill. From a potential standpoint, TMD doesn’t even have the best measurables either for me to feel comfortable taking the things he’s shown and forecasting that above some of these other talents. He’s playing heavily protected by his cover 3 scheme, with little man2man reps and even within that there’s some situations where it’s not a great evaluation.

I can feel comfortable projecting Jordan Davis, for example, to improve as a pass rusher because he gets into the backfield consistently when tasked to not two gap… and this with largely bad technique. Clean the technique and get him some moves and maybe we can watch him work.

Whereas with TMD, sure he’s got the foot quickness, but what he’ll be tasked to do is guard a death row of WRs within the league and his school hasn’t faced a legit WR threat since 2019. So assuming he was a starter back then, that’s where I’ll need to look at next to see what he looks like against London, Pittman. and St Brown.

[AngusMcFife]

I can't believe there's a first round DB prospect named Elam from Florida. Bad memories. 

[wackywabbit]

5 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

I can't believe there's a first round DB prospect named Elam from Florida. Bad memories. 

wait until you find out who his uncle is...

[diamondbull424]

On 4/15/2022 at 3:00 PM, Ray Reed said:

If we take Penning at 14 ill be absolutely sick man

We definitely agree on Penning, I’d probably rank my top 10 OL in the draft, something like:

Tier 1 = Great Floor, Elite Ceiling
1. Kenyon Green- Elite versatility, great knee bend and great hip fluidity have me higher on Green than seemingly most are. I see a legit OT option that is probably a PB guard. I see a terrifically high floor, though I don’t see him being much more than he currently is, whereas some of the other guys on this tier I have lower floors but higher ceilings.
2. Charles Cross- Elite pass blocker is more valuable than elite run blocking in the NFL, I trust what I see on Cross to translate into a PB level pass blocker mostly from jump. I do have some slight concerns about him handling guys that convert speed to power, but those can be resolved with an NFL strength and conditioning program.
3. Ikem Ekwonu- Has the highest ceiling of this group. Ikem is the most dominant run blocker I’ve seen since scouting OL prospects. He’s also a crazy athlete, however I feel some of that athleticism doesn’t seem to translate as well as a pass blocker. He’s certainly not a bad pass blocker, but for how athletic he tests, you’d think he’d look as fluid as, for example, Charles Cross, but at times he looks more like Michael Oher. As a guard, I think my concerns are far more nullified, but I also haven’t seen him play this position before. I think he’s got a very high floor as the best run blocking big in the league and I think once he develops, he can become an All Pro. That said, until he does, I think what Jermaine Johnson was able to show against Ekwonu because of his technical limitations, is something the great pass rushers within the league might show as well. Ekwonu, I think because he’s likely to be drafted to play OT may have some initial growing pains in pass protection.
4. Tyler Linderbaum- TL is an elite athlete, terrific combo blocker, terrific puller, and probably the most special reach blocker I’ve ever scouted. I’m not low on him at all, but I’m not quite as high on him as I was about Creed Humphrey last season. TL just isn’t as strong a system fit, he’s shown some weakness in his anchor to big men in the middle when strictly 1v1. He’s not the best traits option as well. So while he’s not tier two, his flaws do make me a little more weary and thus why he’s at the tail end of my tier order.

Tier 2 = Good Floor, Great Ceiling
5. Evan Neal- I’m a little lower on Neal than most. I do really like the entirety of the players I have ranked in this second tier. That said, I feel Neal has some balance issues that give me serious pause. We’ve seen guys dominate at Bama’ before, only for them to become just solid players in the league- particularly within the trenches. What’s more, Neal already has such a huge size, however I don’t feel he gets great pop within the run game. He’s much more of a ‘let me get in your way’ type blocker and when you’re as big as he is (6’7” and 350 lbs) it sort of feels like he’s maxed out with his physical potential.
6. Daniel Faalele- I see a very dominant blocker physically, probably second in this class. When he gets his hands on an opposing player, they’ve successfully lost the rep. With his arm length and size, he swallows up space and defenders alike. I think on top of that he’s an athlete for his size and I can't help but feel he’d be a terrific fit for our squad.
7. Nicholas Petit-Freire- NPF is one of the players I seem to be higher on than most, I think he’s got legit PB type ceiling and a very high floor as well. He had a bad game vs Michigan, but he’s explosive enough to not be overwhelmed, he has handled enough style of rushers for me to feel confident that he could compete with more seasons rushers and still hold his own.
8. Tyler Smith- Admittedly I could probably watch more tape of Smith’s, but from what I saw, I came away feeling that he had great versatility to play all across the OL similar enough to Green. What’s more he’s a superior athlete. Now that being said, Smith wasn’t the same technician as Green, but was probably more of a poor man’s Ikem Ekwonu. Only no one is Ekwonu and while I look at Ekwonu’s freakish athleticism and think he could probably still overcome terrible technique to get the job done, Smith didn’t seem to be on that level and thus lowers my initial floor for him. But if developed correctly, I like his potential as much as most in this class.

Tier 3 = High Floor or High Ceiling
9. Zion Johnson- Another player I could watch more of, but I liked what I saw of him from the senior bowl for his non center plays. He’s got some quickness, some strength to him. He’s got some nice technique as well. That said, I don’t see any particularly special traits or versatility to allow him to rise above the high floor that he has, but maybe that’s just me.
10. Ed Ingram- Very similar profile as to what I mentioned with Zion Johnson. Ingram also stood out at the senior bowl to me and demanded some additional attention. I see another very high floor player, but with his potential likely maxing out as just slightly below PB level. JMO.

10b. Trevor Penning- I’m not an idiot. I see the amazing athletic testing and even though I question the tape in some cases and while I question what I saw at the Senior Bowl as well, the combine numbers are off the charts. I see more of a guard due to the lack of knee bend and hip flex, but NFL players have transformed themselves with things like yoga in the past. Penning, has high upside, if he can figure it all out and become highly technical with his length and power that’s probably 3rd/4th most impressive in this class, then combine that with his great speed and you’ve got to like what you see from him from a potential standpoint. That said, I do think based off his current tape/play, he’s very much overrated. I probably wouldn’t take him in the 1st round, period. But if he falls to our 2nd round pick, I could be willing to make that gamble.

[diamondbull424]

My viewpoint of Davis. He’s disruptive and he’s going to allow other guys to get sacks because of his presence. And if/when he develops, he’s going to finish those plays himself. Campbell teaching this dude how to hand fight would make him the real life version of the Juggernaut.

I think Davis, Stingley, Hamilton, and Daxton Hill are the most likely selections.

Will be interesting to see what direction the front office takes with this draft.