Staff Overhaul for 2022 - Discuss, debate, deliberate..... uh, d-speculate...

[soulman]

39 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

More inclined to think your way Soul,  but perhaps they're just hedging a bit until the season is truly toast and will move Nagy out the door then?  Either way it's really interesting to see how much the end of season window for interviewing new HC for teams without one affects things.  Perhaps it's always happened anyway, but quietly, or perhaps it leads to teams like the Bears firing in season for the first time. 

If anything the progress Fields has shown over the last couple of games is at least part of what's saving Nagy butt.  The rest is simply a McCaskey aversion to firing a HC during the season thereby calling attention to themselves and the state of the team under their ownership.  They don't enjoy being embarrassed or under a load of criticism for having once again made a poor choice in hiring a HC.

Any further grace for Matt Nagy could only come from virtually winning out and finishing 11-6 and in the playoffs.  If anyone believes that's likely to happen please pass that pipe and tell me where you bought your ganja.  So for intents Matt Nagy is toast come January and he'll leave with thanks from the front office for his efforts.  Even Ryan Pace can't save him now.  Pace has his own job to be concerned with.

Assuming a new HC will come from a playoff bound team no matter when we interview prospects it's unlikely our new guy will be available until after the playoffs anyway and possibly even the Super Bowl.

[Sugashane]

1 hour ago, RunningVaccs said:

More inclined to think your way Soul,  but perhaps they're just hedging a bit until the season is truly toast and will move Nagy out the door then?  Either way it's really interesting to see how much the end of season window for interviewing new HC for teams without one affects things.  Perhaps it's always happened anyway, but quietly, or perhaps it leads to teams like the Bears firing in season for the first time. 

I think there is zero chance of the FO dropping Nagy until we are actually 100% mathematically eliminated fro the postseason. I hope Nagy is cut midseason though, let that scumbag do what even Trestman, Gibron and Fox couldn't do.

[Bigbear72]

4 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

I think there is zero chance of the FO dropping Nagy until we are actually 100% mathematically eliminated fro the postseason. I hope Nagy is cut midseason though, let that scumbag do what even Trestman, Gibron and Fox couldn't do.

Scumbag?  How do you really feel?

[Sugashane]

2 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said:

Scumbag?  How do you really feel?

I hate him. Scumbag may be too much but I'm sick of typing "incompetent" and "stupid" repeatedly. Gotta switch it up.

[Bigbear72]

1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

I hate him. Scumbag may be too much but I'm sick of typing "incompetent" and "stupid" repeatedly. Gotta switch it up.

Well, I can appreciate your effort to keep the conversation fresh.

[abstract_thought]

I think it's fine to acknowledge the McCaskeys' loyalty/conservatism/dullness when considering what's most likely to happen.

I don't think it's OK for fans to accept it. If we're discussing likely outcomes, then Pace staying is fair. If we're discussing the best outcomes, he should be gone.

[soulman]

6 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

I think it's fine to acknowledge the McCaskeys' loyalty/conservatism/dullness when considering what's most likely to happen.

I don't think it's OK for fans to accept it. If we're discussing likely outcomes, then Pace staying is fair. If we're discussing the best outcomes, he should be gone.

If it were possible to wipe it all out and install brand new leadership I would applaud it but unfortunately that would also mean GMcC announces they've sold the Bears to someone else and are no longer part of the equation.  I think we all know that's not gonna happen so we're gonna half to settle for half a loaf as opposed to the whole one.

One question I keep asking myself is do I believe that Ryan Pace has gotten better as a GM and can he continue to get better as either a GM or a VP of Football Ops.  I do believe he's improved but I also believe he lacks caution and doesn't factor in the risks he takes well enough especially when it comes to signing and drafting players with known injuries.

Two perfect examples are Quinn last season and Jenkins this season.

Quinn was sold as a perfect pairing with Mack that would send our sack stats soaring and that not even close to what we got in 2020.  Pace spent $18.5 mil in cash on a guy who gave us 2 sacks and 20 tackles.  He's rebounded nicely this year with 6.5 sacks and 21 tackles in 8 games but his 2020 season was pretty much a waste.

Jenkins had a history of back issues in college.  It's probably safe to assume that's why he was available in round two.  Other teams may have more correctly determined that he might need surgery to correct the problem and that he would at the very least miss his rookie year.  That seems to be the case at a minimum and in all likelihood we won't know how well he's recovered and can play until 2022.

Countering that was his pulling off the Mack trade which not only helped our defense but also kept Mack out of GB since they were also in the hunt for him.  He also kept GB from signing ARob and from signing Kyle Fuller away both of whom have been key contributors prior to 2021.  And lastly he managed to finagle the pick that got us Fields away from the NYG who have seldom ever made a trade like that.

If Fields does become our franchise QB and plays on a level that other top 5 NFL QBs have played at that alone can offset quite a few screw ups since a top ranked QB is what Chicago has lacked for 70 years.  Even Jim Finks, Jerry Vainisi, and GSH himself weren't able to accomplish that.  Mac was as good as they could do and while he was a crafty kind of winner I wouldn't call him a franchise level QB.

In the end we should also be reminding ourselves just who has made past decisions regarding Bears GMs in the past decade.  It was GMcC and Teddy Bears who fired Jerry Angelo who had built a SB contender and had a second team just one game short of another SB appearance and replaced him with Phil Emery who then passed on hiring Bruce Arians and hired Marc Trestman instead.  Remember that.

I believe Pace was hired simply because other top prospects were unwilling to come to Chicago to work under Ted Phillips and McCaskey ownership.  Eric DaCosta declined to even interview and who know how many more also declined.  Unfortunately that hasn't changed so is it still a factor today?  Having finally drafted a top QB prospect helps but there are other factors to consider as well.

A new GM would be facing a rather bleak cap situation.

In several instances the restructuring of previous contracts would make it difficult if not impossible to release or trade certain players without incurring significant dead cap hits.  Decisions also need to be made regarding extensions for Nichols and Daniels as well as Roquan Smith and if ARob is leaving in FA who will replace him?  IMHO FA needs to target a #2 CB and another starting caliber WR.

And that's just the major needs and decisions.  We project to have $42.5 mil in 2022 cap but we also have just 32 players under contract in 2022 so there are a whole lot of additions and/or extensions that will need to be dealt with.  Over the past 3-4 seasons Pace has about half built this team but has also left plenty of holes yet to be filled.  Do we have players who can fill those holes or do we not?

IMHO what it comes down to is can we believe and trust in Ryan Pace along with a new HC to complete the process and create a roster who can contend to a championship or not.  If not what we're looking at is a new GM who more than like would begin tearing down this roster to rebuild one that fits his own concepts and that may even further delay any path to consistent playoff appearances or a championship.

The grass may look greener in someone else's yard.....but is it really or is just a fresh coat of green paint?

Edited November 12, 2021 by soulman

[abstract_thought]

Most of Pace's good moves have been absolute no-brainer decisions that any other GM could have made.

His biggest problem is his terrible big-picture decision-making. This includes hiring Nagy, hiring Desai, trading away draft picks, overvaluing the wrong positions, mishandling the salary cap, and not creating a strong development plan for now 2 rookie QBs. That's before even mentioning the 2017 pre-draft process.

He's a good talent evaluator. But nothing about his tenure in Chicago suggests he should take a broader role. Quite the opposite - he needs to be a personnel guy like he was in NO.

Good organizations don't settle for mediocrity, even if that means accepting some risk. If the Bears want to win, they should scour the Earth for the best GM out there. If the next guy is worse than Pace, you fire him and look for another.

[Epyon]

 

Nagy will be  the first HC fired in season for chicago, but only because they are allowing teams to start interviewing candidates 2 weeks before the regular season ends this year (but ONLY if you've fired your HC)

[Sugashane]

2 minutes ago, Epyon said:

 

Nagy will be  the first HC fired in season for chicago, but only because they are allowing teams to start interviewing candidates 2 weeks before the regular season ends this year (but ONLY if you've fired your HC)

I hope so! What will that call that? First Black Monday? Black Monday - Part 1?

Whatever it is, sign me up. Fire him on the sidelines during the game.

[Madmike90]

13 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

I hope so! What will that call that? First Black Monday? Black Monday - Part 1?

Whatever it is, sign me up. Fire him on the sidelines during the game.

Does anyone know an exact date for when you can start interviewing?

[dll2000]

8 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

Most of Pace's good moves have been absolute no-brainer decisions that any other GM could have made.

His biggest problem is his terrible big-picture decision-making. This includes hiring Nagy, hiring Desai, trading away draft picks, overvaluing the wrong positions, mishandling the salary cap, and not creating a strong development plan for now 2 rookie QBs. That's before even mentioning the 2017 pre-draft process.

He's a good talent evaluator. But nothing about his tenure in Chicago suggests he should take a broader role. Quite the opposite - he needs to be a personnel guy like he was in NO.

Good organizations don't settle for mediocrity, even if that means accepting some risk. If the Bears want to win, they should scour the Earth for the best GM out there. If the next guy is worse than Pace, you fire him and look for another.

 

He is 3/4 of way there.  

But that last 1/4 is really important.   The whole NFL has 3/4 or they wouldn't be there.  

He is really good at recognizing talent.  I give him that.  

But he is bad at placing value on acquiring said talent spending too much money and draft picks to get it a lot of the time.

He undervalues O line, especially OT.   It is almost impossible to win at any level of football with a bad O line.   He drafted well this year, but too little too late.     

His coaches are bad and he encourages and maybe even demands the things they do bad.  

a) They don't practice fundamentals enough and it shows.

b) They don't develop young talent.  They either come in good or often regress.   I don't buy that you play guard to learn center or you watch another QB without practice reps and get better.   You get better at something by doing the thing with live reps and good teaching with it.  It's okay if someone starts out bad at something for a time if you think they will succeed at it.  

c) They don't hold starting players accountable for bad or lazy play (by calling them out in team meetings or benching them - even for a time, which is way it is done).  Too worried about being a players coach.

d) They don't reward bench or practice squad players with more opportunities or playing time for making plays in practice or pre-season or even games.  This is demoralizing for them and it matters.   You will get people to stop trying their hardest if they get no rewards or see no light at end of tunnel.     

With c and d - you have to reward play making and punish bad play.  You have to.   Nagy does not do this and Pace is on board with it.  This is crucial to being a good coach or manager and he fails to recognize it.

 

 

 

 

[Sugashane]

1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

Does anyone know an exact date for when you can start interviewing?

Week 16. Coach either has to be fired or notified that he will not be retained but the team with that prospective HC can block it too I believe. Most will probably allow a Zoom interview but there probably still be a few dbags. 

[topwop1]

2 hours ago, Epyon said:

 

Nagy will be  the first HC fired in season for chicago, but only because they are allowing teams to start interviewing candidates 2 weeks before the regular season ends this year (but ONLY if you've fired your HC)

Even with this new rule the Bears will probably still wait til the end of the season to fire Nagy..IF they even fire him 😂

[soulman]

2 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

Most of Pace's good moves have been absolute no-brainer decisions that any other GM could have made.

His biggest problem is his terrible big-picture decision-making. This includes hiring Nagy, hiring Desai, trading away draft picks, overvaluing the wrong positions, mishandling the salary cap, and not creating a strong development plan for now 2 rookie QBs. That's before even mentioning the 2017 pre-draft process.

He's a good talent evaluator. But nothing about his tenure in Chicago suggests he should take a broader role. Quite the opposite - he needs to be a personnel guy like he was in NO.

Good organizations don't settle for mediocrity, even if that means accepting some risk. If the Bears want to win, they should scour the Earth for the best GM out there. If the next guy is worse than Pace, you fire him and look for another.

OK, I'll play devil's advocate here.

While the decisions themselves may have seemed like "no-brainers" there's more to getting the deal done than just deciding you'd like to do it.

Getting a 2nd round pick back in the Mack trade was a shrewd move.  If I'm not mistaken that pick got us Kmet.  And he was also up against GB and a couple of others who also wanted Mack yet he got the deal done and got GMcC to agree to underwrite it financially making Mack the then highest paid defender in the NFL.  It was anything but a slam dunk deal.

No other GM has ever been able to persuade Dave Gettleman to swap 1st round picks yet Pace did and moved up to take Fields without any hesitation.  It's draft day #1 and QBs are flying off the board.  You need one and the guy you want falls into a range where you can afford to make a move for him but you still have to close the deal with the Giants.  Closers are kings.

I don't accept that hiring Nagy was a bad decision on Pace's part.  He was certainly one of the best prospects available then, had worked under a very successful HC, and had also shown success in improving Alex Smith's play and in coaching Patrick Mahomes.  I can't recall anyone on any forum I posted on being disappointed with our hiring Matt Nagy.  Just the opposite in fact.

Sean Desai is a rookie DC who learned under one of the best.  He's been universally complimented by his players.  But he also has a secondary with a #2 CB who isn't an NFL caliber starter on the edge.  EJax has been missing these past two games and I can't help but believing that has had a major impact on our coverages and the late collapse of the secondary.  Mack is out and Hicks is also hurting.

If our objective is to find younger up and coming coaches who can coach 21st century football then a guy like Sean Desai fits.  I would take him over Chuck Pagano every day of the week and twice on Sunday.  Let's give the guy a chance to get his unit whole again then judge him.

I'll give up some ground on his draft day moves as far as trading picks for specific players he wanted.  It's been somewhat hit and miss but we also have Montgomery, Kmet, and Fields as current examples of trades that brought in foundational talent.  Floyd wasn't a bust and Trevis Gipson has shown some nice potential as an edge guy.  There may be a few more I can't recall on the plus side but yeah, there have been some busts too.

Overvaluing the wrong positions I would say is pretty much related to his having ignored OT for too long before addressing it and I haven't been all that pleased with his decisions relative to TE and WR either.  But then with Nagy coaching an offense that has had little to no passing game it's hard to evaluate some of Pace's personnel decisions.  Guys who were productive elsewhere come here and are basically ignored or they sit.

More recently he's painted himself into a corner cap wise but then so has nearly every other NFL GM too.  No one planned for COVID and it's impact on what had been a steadily rising cap at a rate of around 6% per year and a new CBA that would increase it by even more.  Then boom, along came COVID and the cap fell by about $25 mil from what had been projected for 2021 and 2022 will also be impacted by that.

There are certain personnel decisions like keeping Graham this year that I believe was foolish.  I also wasn't happy to see Kyle Fuller walk away but he's not been much of a prize here in Denver.  I also believe he jumped the gun in trading for Foles instead of waiting for Cincy to release Dalton who would then have been with us in both 2020 and 2021.  So his decisions over the years with vet QBs leaves a lot to be desired as well.

A development plan for rookie QBs?  Who is most responsible for that?  The GM or the guy whose coaching the QBs?  If after the Trubisky problem it was Pace who insisted that Dalton get all of the starters reps all summer long and not be given any shot at competing with Dalton then yes I'll pick up a shovel and toss a few shovel fulls of blame his way but in the end it's the HC who has the final say and Nagy agreed with that approach.

Nothing in his tenure suggests he might be able to handle other matters?  How 'bout the expansion and renovation of Halas Hall into one of the best facilities in the NFL?  The thought and planning that went into that was pretty impressive as are the results.  It's actually Pace's work on that project that has me believing we may be better off if he did even more in those areas and less in personnel matters.

Scour the earth for the best GM out there.  OK, one of the best is Eric DeCosta.  Seven years ago we asked him to interview.  He told us to buzz off so who else did you have on your list and what makes you certain he'd take the job even if it was offered.  We ended up with Pace because few others with more experience were interested in the job and I've already posted why that may be the case......two words, Ted Phillips.

So you fire Pace, hire a guy you believe will be better, he isn't so he lasts how long?  Then you fire him too and what you end up with his a perpetual rebuilding process where the new GM begins to tear apart the former GM's roster, fire his choice for HC in favor of his own choice, and this goes on for how long?  Do you actually believe the McCaskeys are up for that kind of upheaval and constant change?  To be sure, they're not.

I'm not opposing your emotions brother but I am at least trying to bring some balance and reality into what we're facing.  At the rate Fields is learning and with his abilities if we can solidify the OL for a change, fill in some holes on offense and defense and keep our core guys around, and replace Nagy with a much better HC by next season we can be a solid playoff team and from there I won't predict more until it see it happen.

When Nagy keep saying we're close my belief is based on some of the talent we have he's not wrong but what he can't see is his own incompetence is what's been holding his team back.  He's is a perfect example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect because he constantly over estimates his own ability as an offensive strategist and as a HC and I don't feel that will ever change. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect

So, that's my piece on Pace and where we are and how he might think about proceeding at least for one more year with Pace as GM or with Pace being elevated to another level and a new GM either promoted from the ranks or hired from an outside source.  Nagy's goose is cooked.  He's failed to do what he was hired to do.  Pace on the other hand hasn't completely failed but he does need to keep showing improvement.  JMHO