Kirk Cousins is, by every traditional measure, an excellent QB. So why doesn't he win more?

[SBLIII]

13 minutes ago, HerbertGOAT said:

Because wins aren't a QB stat.

they are part of it. No great QB has consistently losing records. Brees was the one outlier and he needed all time bad defenses to go 7-9

[WizeGuy]

I mean- he plays in a pretty run heavy system, no? Also, he's always had a wealth of weapons in Minnesota. He's a pretty good QB, imo, but he hasn't really had the chance to be great given the environment he's in, and perhaps that's because he's not good enough? 

 

I don't know. I'd love to hear some Vikings fans takes.

[squire12]

Cousins is a average to good QB.  he will win you some games, but often enough against upper tier teams.  

https://www.sportsandfitnessdigest.com/kirk-cousins-record-against-winning-teams/

 

Quote

Since entering the NFL in 2012, Kirk Cousins is 7-35 (.166) against teams that finished the season with a winning record.

With the Washington Football Team from 2012-17, Kirk Cousins was 4-19 (.173) against winning teams as the starting quarterback.

https://www.sportsandfitnessdigest.com/active-nfl-quarterback-records-against-winning-teams/

 

 

Lamar Jackson	16	10	6	0	.625
Patrick Mahomes	16	10	6	0	.625
Tom Brady	121	74	47	0	.611
Jimmy Garoppolo	15	9	6	0	.600
Russell Wilson	59	32	27	0	.542
Marcus Mariota	25	12	13	0	.480
Aaron Rodgers	80	36	43	1	.456
Jared Goff	31	14	17	0	.451
Josh Allen	17	7	10	0	.411
Dak Prescott	33	13	20	0	.393
Matt Ryan	86	31	55	0	.360
Mitchell Trubisky	23	8	15	0	.347
Kyler Murray	14	3	11	0	.333
Carson Wentz	31	10	21	0	.322
Baker Mayfield	20	6	14	0	.300
Deshaun Watson	26	7	19	0	.269
Drew Lock	8	2	6	0	.250
Derek Carr	59	14	45	0	.237
Sam Darnold	17	4	13	0	.235
Teddy Bridgewater	18	4	14	0	.222
Kirk Cousins	42	7	35	0	.173
Justin Herbert	6	1	5	0	.166
Matthew Stafford	75	8	67	0	.106
Daniel Jones	9	0	9	0	.000

 

[Bearerofnews]

4 hours ago, Apparition said:

Sure, but even adjusting for era, he's consistently produced excellent numbers for the last 7 years.

His Rate+ by season since 2015:
118, 112, 105, 113, 120, 117, 114

Tom Brady's in the same span:
119, 133, 117, 110, 94, 113, 116

  

True, but again, in almost all other cases, QB stats of that caliber correlate strongly with wins. 

Have you watched his film? He is not that good and his stats do not match his play. He throws up a bunch of heaves and prayers that are bad passes and decisions that just tend to work out. He should of had near 3 ints vs the Chargers. 

Kirk is a better version of a less athletic Alex Smith. 

[Shanedorf]

Kirk is the perfect vikings QB - I sincerely hope the purples extend him for another 10 years so he can retire a viking
And when they build his statue ; they'll be able to save big money on materials because he has incredibly small...hands.

[Apparition]

3 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

Have you watched his film? He is not that good and his stats do not match his play. He throws up a bunch of heaves and prayers that are bad passes and decisions that just tend to work out. He should of had near 3 ints vs the Chargers. 

Kirk is a better version of a less athletic Alex Smith. 

If I had the opportunity to study his film, I wouldn't be asking these questions. 😅

But the thing with risky throws for QBs is that eventually they catch up with them and the numbers start to reflect the play style. But with Kirk, if he's that reckless with the ball, then he's been supernaturally lucky because his adjusted INT% has been, at worst, just a bit higher than the league average for the last 7 years, and usually considerably better than that. Guys don't remain that lucky for that long. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Kirk Cousins is simply a very perplexing QB. He seems good, he also seems bad. He has good stats, but also not good stats. It's just confusing. I certainly don't think the Vikings' OC/passing schemes help him, despite Justin Jefferson being a prolific WR.

[KlenlyKenny]

Kirk is great, no doubt about it. He sure hasn't won as much as other quarterbacks although he has been a highly effecient Quarterback. I've always pictured him in the mold of a player who would win with a good defense, I think that's what will take him there. 

It is, however, hard to imagine many other Quarterbacks who are as effective at passing as he is though. 

[vikingsrule]

1 hour ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Kirk Cousins is simply a very perplexing QB. He seems good, he also seems bad. He has good stats, but also not good stats. It's just confusing. I certainly don't think the Vikings' OC/passing schemes help him, despite Justin Jefferson being a prolific WR.

I think that’s part of it, at least his time in MN. He’s been stuck on a team with a head coach who’s obsessed with old school football. Russell Wilson has been stuck with it too, the difference is Wilson is much more clutch and had undeniably better teams at the beginning of his career. He’s probably never winning a ring again in Seattle though.
 

The past season and a half, Cousins has really been stellar but unfortunately the team has nosedived and I don’t think the coaches have necessarily felt comfortable running the team through the passing game vs being a ball control team and hoping the defense plays well (it hasn’t). 

I don’t think the stats tell the whole story though and he’s probably right in that 9-12 range of starting QBs. Hasn’t been good enough to overcome outdated coaching and a mostly poor defense. And there have been some struggles in what you might call clutch moments, or when plays break down. 

Having a revolving door at OC hasn’t been good for him either and Cousins has tried to do more to take ownership of the offense but I don’t think coaching has been receptive. This is the first year that Cousins and Zimmer are actually watching film together weekly. I think that’s telling of the relationship these two have. I think there’s more going on there behind the scenes but winning usually cures all. Certainly hasn’t been enough of it since 2018.

[Jakuvious]

On third down, Cousins completes about 65% of his passes. However, the Vikings, when passing the ball on 3rd down, only get a first down about 39% of the time. The former is excellent. 65% is right in line with Dak, Mahomes, Stafford. It's well ahead of Rodgers and Brady. The latter though, is terrible by comparison, sandwiched between Daniel Jones and Big Ben. Dak, Mahomes, and Stafford are all around 50% conversion when they pass on third down (and that's not counting what they likely add running, save for probably Stafford.)

Most of the time, when a QB's numbers look fantastic, but the points scored and the drive sustain don't follow, it's because that QB is taking what he is given to a fault on key downs and plays. Or they're just bad in pressure situations. Or a bit of both. But a 9 yard pass on 3rd and 15 is just as good for the stats as a 9 yard pass on 3rd and 8, but one is an easy play that counts as a failure, while the other is a difficult one that drives the team forward.

Let's take a game where Cousins stats were excellent, but the points scored didn't seem to follow suit, and the team lost. Against Cincy in week 1, Cousins had seemingly excellent stats. 350+ yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, a 100+ passer rating. But the team only scored 24 points, and lost. Here were the failed 3rd down conversions throughout that game:

3rd and 24: completion short middle for 11 yards
3rd and 6: incomplete short left
3rd and 20: 9 yard sack
3rd and 15: completion short middle for 6 yards
3rd and 20: completion short left for 9 yards
3rd and 26: completion short middle for 10 yards
3rd and 4: incomplete short middle
3rd and 10: 8 yard sack
3rd and 10: completion short right for 6 yards (they would go for it and convert on 4th and 4, FWIW)
3rd and 11: completion short middle for 7 yards (we're in OT now, FYI)

They ended the game 6/16 on third down, so they weren't all failures. Statistically that's not terrible, over a full season this would rank like 22nd, so it's not good either. But this is ultimately the problem you wind up with with stats for guys like this. This is very Alex Smith. And in total, this result is going to look perfectly fine statistically. 75% completion, 6.125 YPA is pretty week, but overall it spits out a 90 in passer rating, because the sacks don't come into play, and the yards to gain don't show up in stats simpler than EPA. Throw in the successful conversions, he probably would even look statistically excellent on third down, in a vacuum. But this is clearly a failure in terms of game script, sustaining drives, and scoring points. And this is how you get these QBs with great statlines producing offenses that struggle to generate points.

And I get it, you're not going to convert every 3rd and 20+. But if you have Mahomes, Stafford, Rodgers, Brady, etc., you're at least trying on the majority of these. You'll convert some, maybe get a lucky penalty here and there, and you trust your QB not to eff it up too badly when they do still fail. I don't think the Vikings coaching staff trusts Cousins like that. Frankly, I don't think Cousins trusts Cousins like that either.

And, this isn't even getting into the fact that they somehow found themselves in 3rd and 15+ at least 5 times in one game. That alone is...not good. And some of those are Cousins fault, some of them aren't. But this post already needs a tl;dr, so I'm not going to dive further into that.

[Shanedorf]

18 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

I don't think the Vikings coaching staff trusts Cousins like that. Frankly, I don't think Cousins trusts Cousins like that either.

 

[jrry32]

He's basically Tony Romo. Great stats, but the numbers feel empty.

[FinSting]

2 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Kirk Cousins is simply a very perplexing QB. He seems good, he also seems bad. He has good stats, but also not good stats. It's just confusing. I certainly don't think the Vikings' OC/passing schemes help him, despite Justin Jefferson being a prolific WR.

Best description. Difficult to pin down this guy. He's up, he's down. He's up, he's down. At least it's always exciting, never knowing what will happen. 

[Apparition]

34 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

He's basically Tony Romo. Great stats, but the numbers feel empty.

Romo retired with a 78-49 career record, so I would say whatever their shared problem might be, Cousins has it a lot worse. 

[vikingsrule]

1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

On third down, Cousins completes about 65% of his passes. However, the Vikings, when passing the ball on 3rd down, only get a first down about 39% of the time. The former is excellent. 65% is right in line with Dak, Mahomes, Stafford. It's well ahead of Rodgers and Brady. The latter though, is terrible by comparison, sandwiched between Daniel Jones and Big Ben. Dak, Mahomes, and Stafford are all around 50% conversion when they pass on third down (and that's not counting what they likely add running, save for probably Stafford.)

Most of the time, when a QB's numbers look fantastic, but the points scored and the drive sustain don't follow, it's because that QB is taking what he is given to a fault on key downs and plays. Or they're just bad in pressure situations. Or a bit of both. But a 9 yard pass on 3rd and 15 is just as good for the stats as a 9 yard pass on 3rd and 8, but one is an easy play that counts as a failure, while the other is a difficult one that drives the team forward.

Let's take a game where Cousins stats were excellent, but the points scored didn't seem to follow suit, and the team lost. Against Cincy in week 1, Cousins had seemingly excellent stats. 350+ yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, a 100+ passer rating. But the team only scored 24 points, and lost. Here were the failed 3rd down conversions throughout that game:

3rd and 24: completion short middle for 11 yards
3rd and 6: incomplete short left
3rd and 20: 9 yard sack
3rd and 15: completion short middle for 6 yards
3rd and 20: completion short left for 9 yards
3rd and 26: completion short middle for 10 yards
3rd and 4: incomplete short middle
3rd and 10: 8 yard sack
3rd and 10: completion short right for 6 yards (they would go for it and convert on 4th and 4, FWIW)
3rd and 11: completion short middle for 7 yards (we're in OT now, FYI)

They ended the game 6/16 on third down, so they weren't all failures. Statistically that's not terrible, over a full season this would rank like 22nd, so it's not good either. But this is ultimately the problem you wind up with with stats for guys like this. This is very Alex Smith. And in total, this result is going to look perfectly fine statistically. 75% completion, 6.125 YPA is pretty week, but overall it spits out a 90 in passer rating, because the sacks don't come into play, and the yards to gain don't show up in stats simpler than EPA. Throw in the successful conversions, he probably would even look statistically excellent on third down, in a vacuum. But this is clearly a failure in terms of game script, sustaining drives, and scoring points. And this is how you get these QBs with great statlines producing offenses that struggle to generate points.

And I get it, you're not going to convert every 3rd and 20+. But if you have Mahomes, Stafford, Rodgers, Brady, etc., you're at least trying on the majority of these. You'll convert some, maybe get a lucky penalty here and there, and you trust your QB not to eff it up too badly when they do still fail. I don't think the Vikings coaching staff trusts Cousins like that. Frankly, I don't think Cousins trusts Cousins like that either.

And, this isn't even getting into the fact that they somehow found themselves in 3rd and 15+ at least 5 times in one game. That alone is...not good. And some of those are Cousins fault, some of them aren't. But this post already needs a tl;dr, so I'm not going to dive further into that.

Penalties killed the Vikes week 1. That contributed to long third down situations. Despite sloppy football in week 1, they still got to overtime and would have put Joseph in position to attempt a GW field goal of it weren’t for Cooks OT fumble.
 

The Vikes run the ball on second down probably more than anybody else, especially 2nd and long. This is a common complaint for Vikings fans, the offense is regularly trying to convert third and long. I don’t know the numbers but I’d guess it’s very likely the Vikes are towards the top of the league in terms of third and long attempts. Again, being a run oriented team who’s afraid to take risks and not willing to let the offense run through the QB has been a major detriment for years under Zimmer.

Edited November 19, 2021 by vikingsrule