What if the Packers started Rodgers sooner?

[biggie.]

In 2005, the Packers drafted a free falling Rodgers 24th overall. That same season, Brett Favre had his single worst season ever with an astounding 29 interceptions and a lost fumble annd went 4-12 Favre wasn't much the better following season, going 1:1 with touchdowns and interceptions and 8-8.

In today's NFL, it's safe to say Favre wouldn't have survived one more season, let alone three, with that kind of poor productivity. How would Rodgers fare if he started sooner?

[ILoveTheVikings]

Worse then Joe Burrow🤣😉

[Uncle Buck]

47 minutes ago, biggie. said:

In 2005, the Packers drafted a free falling Rodgers 24th overall. That same season, Brett Favre had his single worst season ever with an astounding 29 interceptions and a lost fumble annd went 4-12 Favre wasn't much the better following season, going 1:1 with touchdowns and interceptions and 8-8.

In today's NFL, it's safe to say Favre wouldn't have survived one more season, let alone three, with that kind of poor productivity. How would Rodgers fare if he started sooner?

If memory serves me correctly, Favre's problem in 2005-06 was that their offensive line was horrible and he was running for his life and taking a lot of sacks.  The line improved in 2007, and Favre led them to the NFCCG. 

As far as not surviving one more season, Favre played well for the Jets in 2008 until getting injured.  He played through the injury, but it hurt his performance for the rest of the year.  A year later, in 2009, Favre put up one of the best statistical seasons of his career with the Vikings.

If Rodgers had been thrown into the fire right away, my guess is that he would have fared far worse than Brett Favre did during those three seasons.  Rodgers benefited greatly from spending those 3 years on the bench and learning, IMO.

[DontTazeMeBro]

I’ve never been a believer in “sit and learn.” Most people learn by doing things. Guys like Watson and Allen that people said needed to sit didn’t and it turned out fine. And in Rodgers case I don’t get the revisionist history that he was a project. He was a phenomenally accurate college QB. Put on a clinic against the eventual national champs USC.

 

[Nabbs4u]

1 hour ago, Uncle Buck said:

If Rodgers had been thrown into the fire right away, my guess is that he would have fared far worse than Brett Favre did during those three seasons.  Rodgers benefited greatly from spending those 3 years on the bench and learning, IMO.

Agree. It's not like learning that WCO offense under McCarthy as a Rookie is a seemless easy transition.  By the time Rodgers got his opportunity he probably knew that playbook as well as the OC. That in itself is invaluable. 

Surrounding cast matters,  as would of a pitiful OL he had his rookie year. For every Watson/Allen the NFL is littered with the David Carrs dear in headlights running for their lives too.

Not suggesting Aaron would of out and out sucked, but don't think it would of helped him either.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

Strong chance he wouldn't have been the QB he turned into. Have folks forgotten how terrible he looked the first couple of years in limited action? And that MNF game against the Ravens where he played like doo doo in limited action the whispers of him being a waste of a space started to really balloon. A good article by Bob McGinn was written a while back detailing that entire saga. Essentially Rodgers had to change his entire attitude and the way he was going about his business in the NFL. This is one instance where sitting helped homeslice out. 

Quote

If someone had asked after his first season whether Rodgers had a better chance to be a star or a bust, I might have answered bust. Many personnel people probably would have, too.

As a rookie, Rodgers' six substantial outings included a scrimmage against Buffalo, four exhibition games and the fourth quarter of a December night game in Baltimore.

He was brutal every time out.

In each of the exhibition games, Brett Favre started before turning it over to Rodgers. Until his 20th and final series, when the Packers scored a touchdown in Tennessee with the aid of a 33-yard penalty for pass interference, Rodgers had not generated a point. Sixteen possessions ended with punts, two on interceptions and one on a fumble.

If the No. 2 quarterback job had been awarded based on performance in training camp and games, it would have gone to Craig Nall hands-down.

Against the Ravens, Rodgers threw an interception, fumbled twice and was sacked three times.

As the 2006 draft drew near, Rodgers told NFL Network that he had heard the rumors of the Packers possibly selecting a quarterback with the No. 5 selection in a move that would likely end his career in Green Bay. Ted Thompson, the general manager who had drafted Rodgers with the No. 24 pick the year before, didn't rule it out.

https://archive.jsonline.com/sports/packers/rodgers-made-a-career-audible-with-packers-4p3loj7-136856133.html

Edited December 19, 2021 by TecmoSuperJoe

[thrILL!]

Bob McGinn lol

[Forge]

3 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Strong chance he wouldn't have been the QB he turned into. Have folks forgotten how terrible he looked the first couple of years in limited action? And that MNF game against the Ravens where he played like doo doo in limited action the whispers of him being a waste of a space started to really balloon. A good article by Bob McGinn was written a while back detailing that entire saga. Essentially Rodgers had to change his entire attitude and the way he was going about his business in the NFL. This is one instance where sitting helped homeslice out. 

https://archive.jsonline.com/sports/packers/rodgers-made-a-career-audible-with-packers-4p3loj7-136856133.html

Not sure that I buy into the "strong chance", just because I tend to believe that the talent (mental, emotional, physical) tends to win out and I think Rodgers definitely had all that, but I do believe that the Packers aren't in a much better position than those specific years because he didn't seem ready in limited action and he was very likely going to have some struggled. His first year starting may have been a little different though...I think years 3 and 4 become interesting because he's at that point got the talent and the experience, but they went 13-3 in 2007 as it was with Favre and it's a hard ask to think he would have done better even as a third year starter. 

[DannyB]

I don't think it would have made much of a difference the first couple of years. And Favre had a good year in '07. But I'll say this: If we'd been starting him by the end of '07 we would've won the Giants playoff game. Old Man Favre wanted NO part of the weather that day.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

58 minutes ago, Forge said:

Not sure that I buy into the "strong chance", just because I tend to believe that the talent (mental, emotional, physical) tends to win out and I think Rodgers definitely had all that, but I do believe that the Packers aren't in a much better position than those specific years because he didn't seem ready in limited action and he was very likely going to have some struggled. His first year starting may have been a little different though...I think years 3 and 4 become interesting because he's at that point got the talent and the experience, but they went 13-3 in 2007 as it was with Favre and it's a hard ask to think he would have done better even as a third year starter. 

Maybe. Deck would be stacked against him. Coaching staff's confidence was already starting to wane to the point he might get traded after two years. You stack that on top of the peanut gallery howling like jackals if he had played his first two seasons and performed terribly like he had in limited action I don't like the chances for anyone. But yes, hard to say without seeing the alternate timeline. Aaron made a few choices on his own and some other choices by coaching that just took time to hammer out whether he was on the bench or not. Ultimately sitting on the bench wasn't detrimental to Rodgers and maybe even beneficial since he didn't have to immediately live up to the high expectations following in the footsteps of a HOF player. Our very own Steve Young was 2x MVP/3x 1st Team All Pro and still getting dumped on until he won a ring four years later as a starter. 

[Wyld Stallyns]

When Ted Thompson took over as GM he released RG Mike Wahle (bloated roster bonus that triggered a new extension or release) and let LG Marco Rivera leave in free agency. Rivera and C Mike Flanagan we’re both getting up there in age and Flanagan left the next off season. Thompson had to rebuild the interior offensive line and all he had going in was Scott Wells a 7th rounder from the previous draft. His mistake was not hitting OL harder in the Rodgers draft and instead hoping some journeymen OL would be solid place holders.

Also, Rodgers was a Jeff Tedford QB (see Trent Dilfer, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, David Carr and Kyle Boller) most of them had a tendency to be mechanical and robotic. Rodgers (like some of the above mentioned) held the ball up around the ear hole, on release, so that had to be cleaned up.

In the end, Rodgers wasn’t drafted to start in 2005, he was meant to be a bargaining chip to either trade somewhere down the line or be ready if/when Favre retired. The Packers wanted Favre to start as long as Favre wanted to start. 

[ThatJerkDave]

6 hours ago, Uncle Buck said:

If memory serves me correctly, Favre's problem in 2005-06 was that their offensive line was horrible and he was running for his life and taking a lot of sacks.  The line improved in 2007, and Favre led them to the NFCCG. 

As far as not surviving one more season, Favre played well for the Jets in 2008 until getting injured.  He played through the injury, but it hurt his performance for the rest of the year.  A year later, in 2009, Favre put up one of the best statistical seasons of his career with the Vikings.

If Rodgers had been thrown into the fire right away, my guess is that he would have fared far worse than Brett Favre did during those three seasons.  Rodgers benefited greatly from spending those 3 years on the bench and learning, IMO.

 

I agree that he probably would have been worse than Favre in those three seasons.  And most definitely in 05 and 06.  I doubt he has the INT numbers Favre did in 05, but I would predict that he would have been sacked a whole lot and probably had an abysmal completion percentage.  That team was pretty well doomed from the start.  Ted Thompson had to clean up a salary cap mess, which cost the Packers Mike Wahle, Marco Rivera, and Darren Sharper.  They also lost Ahman Green and Javon Walker to IR. That was the Samkon Gado season.  The roster had always been thin under Sherman, and the stars just couldn't cover it up any longer.  For more proof, look at the 2002 team that squeaked by the Bills in week 16, got whipped by the Jets in week 17, and whipped by the Falcons in the playoffs.  In 2006, it was the first year for McCarthy, and I think that he did a great job.  He doubled the win total, and reigned in Favre enough not to be a turnover machine like 05.  The team was still not very good but it was more disciplined and really started playing better in the second half of the season.  

 

Rodgers also wasn't ready.  As a rookie he wasn't real good in the preseason, and if you guys recall he had that funky release at Cal.  In 2006 he was a little better in preseason, I thought, but broke his foot in mop up time when we got the **** kicked out of us by the Patriots.  In 2007, I thought he looked pretty good in preseason, and had that game against the Cowboys that really put him on the map, but most would have had him directly on the train to bustville before that game.  That said, in 2007, Brett Favre was a pro-bowl player, so it isn't like he was really on the hot seat either.  

What you really have to wonder is if Rodgers would have turned into David Carr after the 05 season, had he played.  That is a question that we can't know the answer to.  And it changes everything.  I don't think the Packers do better in 05, and that team may have ruined him.  If he had started from 06, I think he would have played poorly, and the Packers probably do a little worse, but I don't think it would have had any adverse effects on his development.  I think if he started from 07, he plays fine, though I don't know how much better the Packers could have fared that season, so the team is probably a little worse. Though if he did have his start in 07, perhaps he is a little better in 08 and 09.  

[Pugger]

7 hours ago, Wyld Stallyns said:

When Ted Thompson took over as GM he released RG Mike Wahle (bloated roster bonus that triggered a new extension or release) and let LG Marco Rivera leave in free agency. Rivera and C Mike Flanagan we’re both getting up there in age and Flanagan left the next off season. Thompson had to rebuild the interior offensive line and all he had going in was Scott Wells a 7th rounder from the previous draft. His mistake was not hitting OL harder in the Rodgers draft and instead hoping some journeymen OL would be solid place holders.

Also, Rodgers was a Jeff Tedford QB (see Trent Dilfer, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, David Carr and Kyle Boller) most of them had a tendency to be mechanical and robotic. Rodgers (like some of the above mentioned) held the ball up around the ear hole, on release, so that had to be cleaned up.

In the end, Rodgers wasn’t drafted to start in 2005, he was meant to be a bargaining chip to either trade somewhere down the line or be ready ifretired. The Packers wanted Favre to start as long as Favre wanted to start. 

You have to wonder why Favre was so willing to "retire" when it was obvious he could still play at a high level.  Did Favre fear that Rodgers could very well beat him out of his job that summer and wanted no part in being a backup?  I hope Brett writes a tell-all book someday.

[Wyld Stallyns]

36 minutes ago, Pugger said:

You have to wonder why Favre was so willing to "retire" when it was obvious he could still play at a high level.  Did Favre fear that Rodgers could very well beat him out of his job that summer and wanted no part in being a backup?  I hope Brett writes a tell-all book someday.

Some former players have said that the coaching staff and other former players made multiple trips to Mississippi to convince Favre to return. After multiple times being told he was done the Packers finally decided to give up on that plan and turn to Rodgers. Then after training camp began he decided he wanted to return.

Its also prudent to mention that prior to the trade to the Jets many people were saying that Favre wanted to join his friend Darrell Bevell in Minnesota or Jon Gruden in Tampa Bay. 

[Coffee & Contemplation]

I think he would have had an awful season if he started his rookie year, considering him being a rookie and the general state of the roster at that time. They were rebuilding, and it was early; 2006 would have been a better situation for him to start in.

But I think had he started his third year, 2007, he would have been fine, and would have been just as good as he was when he started in 2008. He showed in that 07 Cowboys game that he was more than capable, and played far better than Favre in that game at least (granted, I still don't know what Favre was doing that game).