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The Steelers QB Conundrum

43M

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Dcash4

Dcash4

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Malik Willis scouting reports:

Quote

Prospect Score (out of 8): 6.3 Prospect QB ranking: 4

A confident quarterback who brings a variety of physical tools to the party, but he's developed some bad habits and doesn't have a very repeatable process as a passer. Ability to improvise and extend plays can lead to big plays for his offense, but he will have to prove he can operate with better anticipation and be willing to take what the defense gives him in order to win from the pocket. Will be a work in progress, but he's a high ceiling, low floor prospect.

  • Willingness to default to playground style appears to limit his ability to get into a consistent rhythm
  • Needs to improve anticipatory reads and learn to take what the defense gives him
  • Explosive delivery and follow-through causes some throws to sail
  • Needs better touch on intermediate and deep balls
  • Will leave pocket prematurely rather than standing in and winning in rhythm

Second write up:

Quote

Prospect Score (out of 8): 6.4 Prospect QB ranking: 5

Likely be the biggest boom-or-bust quarterback prospect in the draft. The arm talent are prototypical for early first-round picks, but it's rare to find a quarterback with such a low college completion rate become a successful pro. His receivers struggled to separate, but there were plenty of times where his lack of anticipation and post-snap plan did him in. He can make some truly special throws, but his ability to improve the mental part of his game will determine whether he's a good NFL starter

  • Takes too many chances with low percentage throws
  • Tries to overcome obstacles with arm talent and makes poor decisions because of it
  • Field-reading is spotty
  • Pre-snap game plan appears unfocused
  • Breaks from pocket without cause throwing off his timing with receivers

Last one I found:

Quote

Prospect Score (out of 8): 6.4 Prospect QB ranking: 4

He has rare speed and athleticism and can single-handedly win games. His accuracy is clearly spotty and teams must decide the level of accuracy they are willing to live with relative to his ability to create explosive plays. He may need to operate in an offense ready to integrate RPOs (run/pass options) along with heavy play-action. He has the ability to counter mental mistakes and turnovers with a high number of explosive, touchdown-making plays. He has star potential, but his success will rest heavily upon his ability to stay healthy.

  • Makes targets work too hard
  • Sails throws that can end up in hands of a safety
  • Lacks touch over the heads of middle linebackers into intermediate pockets
  • Lackadaisical in setup

Oh, my bad...Copied the wrong info. That's Mahomes, Allen, and Lamar. You know them. Three of the top producers in the game of football right now. 

I am playing a bit of devils advocate here, because ultimately I don't know that I would even take Malik Willis, but I do think it's important to take all this in. 

Mahomes was graded equal to NATHAN PETERMAN by scouts. Read that line again. Deshon Kizer had the same ranking too. Mahomes had tons of flaws. It's why he dropped to 10th in the draft and probably isn't taken that high without Andy Reid and that KC team buying into the strengths. Its why he was drafted after Trubiski -- who scouts graded at a 7.00, which is a Perennial All-Pro scouting grade. As a prospect, Mahomes graded behind other greats such as Dwayne Haskins (6.7), Sam Darnold (7.1), , Josh Rosen (6.7), Jared Goff (7), Paxton freaking Lynch (6.8), Carson Wentz (6.7), Jameis Winston (7), Mariota, Bridgewater, and Blake Bortles (all 6.8). 

Scouts seem to droll over ordinary and dissect different. Look at that list above. A lot came from pro-style offense. Most fit the ideal prospect of a NFL pocket passer. Most have the ideal height/weight/arm strength. You know what trait those prospects also share? They suck. 

Mahomes got ripped because of his funky arm angles, his Tech offense, and his big 12 defense competition level. How's that look now?

Allen was beat up as a sub-60 passing percentage, his lack of production in big games, his wild inaccuracies, and his field reading. How we feeling about that re-do?

Lamar doesn't play conventional QB and his game won't translate. It's only translated to a 37-12 NFL record as a starter on a team that bought in. 5 of those 12 losses came this year when half his team went on IR. 

Ultimately, the idea of a "bad QB draft" means nothing. I don't care to draft all the QB's....I want to draft 1. And based on what we have seen in the playoffs and the groups of guys leading the NFL charge at the position, I want a dude...not someone who profiles as a pocket passer. Who are we waiting for? What perfect prospect? 6'0, 190lb Bryce Young? I saw Malik get dinged for his height....guess we are out there too. How about CJ Stroud, the guy who comes from the same production and talent system as Dwayne Haskins? Maybe Spencer Rattler, the guy who lost his job in the most QB friendly environment in all of football. All QBs are going to have faults. 

We are seeing teams be rewarded for taking chances on talent. Herbert is another prime example. He was meant to fail because his offensive line was so great at Oregon and he wouldn't fit in without the clean pocket and the wide open offense. Anyone that has watched him realizes now just how wrong those evaluations were. Teams are taking risk with flaws and building around the strengths. If the Steelers choose to draft Malik, I will be excited that there's a chance to build a guy and a team that functions at the top end of an offensive league. 

Will Malik Willis ultimately unlock that top 3 physical tools? I have no clue, but I would far and away rather gamble on tools vs ordinary at this position. Focus on strengths. Does a guy have high end next level abilities? Can you build around him without the need of a perfect team? The people passing on strengths for fear of weakness are drafting the Sam Darnolds of the world. They are ranking Connor Cook the same as Pat Mahomes. 

One final quote from a scout:

Quote

“Trading up for Mahomes, a big-armed gunslinger who really doesn’t mesh with the true mentality as Alex Smith’s successor, set up a bad tone in this draft.”

You will have to forgive me if I don't much care what critics who rank Mahomes poorly because of his comparison to Alex Smith say. Some can't see the dynamic traits through the unconventional styles of the QBs and are not seeing that unconventional is driving the position in the modern age. 

Again, no clue if I would take Willis or not. But I wouldn't shut the door. 

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43M

43M

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@Dcash4

As you pretty much alluded to, the grades and comparisons are never usually accurate.

You could compare a QB to Nathan Peterman and get Patrick Mahomes.   You could also compare a QB to Tom Brady and get Ryan Leaf.

In the end, we have no idea how any of these players are going to turn out.     The draft is largely a crapshoot, and it usually comes down to situation, a players ability to learn and adapt to the NFL game, and in many cases, alot of luck that determine a players success.   There are some players that could likely go anywhere and succeed....but thats not the case for all players.

And for me, thats what it comes down to with us drafting Malik...I dont feel its a good situation for him OR us to draft him....especially in round 1.     He needs to go to the right situation to even have a chance at success.   He is a small school prospect that looked good as a passer (not great)   against a much lower caliber of competition.   He has the physical tools, but when it comes to QB success, those are secondary.   The intangible qualities are far more important, and nothing particularly stands out in those areas.   You can dismiss his size, but it can absolutely put him at a disadvantage.    

As Ive said...I dont dislike Malik, but the comparisons to guys like Mahomes and Allen are a massive reach.     Im not even saying they are inaccurate based on certain traits, but its laughable to compare him to possibly the top 2 QBs in the league just because they are comparable IN CERTAIN AREAS.

I would never draft Willis in the first round...but its not JUST about him.    Its about the makeup and quality of this team, and its ability to put him in the situation he needs to be in to MAYBE unlock his potential.   A team like Tampa Bay or Tennessee would be good landing spots for him.    As I noted....if we had the same team now as we did in 2018, I would be much more open to drafting Willis earlier....but thats not even close to where we are now. 

If we drafted him round 1, I wouldnt be happy....but Id obviously completely support him and hope to God Im wrong.        

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armsteeld

armsteeld

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2 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

Malik Willis scouting reports:

Second write up:

Last one I found:

Oh, my bad...Copied the wrong info. That's Mahomes, Allen, and Lamar. You know them. Three of the top producers in the game of football right now. 

I am playing a bit of devils advocate here, because ultimately I don't know that I would even take Malik Willis, but I do think it's important to take all this in. 

Mahomes was graded equal to NATHAN PETERMAN by scouts. Read that line again. Deshon Kizer had the same ranking too. Mahomes had tons of flaws. It's why he dropped to 10th in the draft and probably isn't taken that high without Andy Reid and that KC team buying into the strengths. Its why he was drafted after Trubiski -- who scouts graded at a 7.00, which is a Perennial All-Pro scouting grade. As a prospect, Mahomes graded behind other greats such as Dwayne Haskins (6.7), Sam Darnold (7.1), , Josh Rosen (6.7), Jared Goff (7), Paxton freaking Lynch (6.8), Carson Wentz (6.7), Jameis Winston (7), Mariota, Bridgewater, and Blake Bortles (all 6.8). 

Scouts seem to droll over ordinary and dissect different. Look at that list above. A lot came from pro-style offense. Most fit the ideal prospect of a NFL pocket passer. Most have the ideal height/weight/arm strength. You know what trait those prospects also share? They suck. 

Mahomes got ripped because of his funky arm angles, his Tech offense, and his big 12 defense competition level. How's that look now?

Allen was beat up as a sub-60 passing percentage, his lack of production in big games, his wild inaccuracies, and his field reading. How we feeling about that re-do?

Lamar doesn't play conventional QB and his game won't translate. It's only translated to a 37-12 NFL record as a starter on a team that bought in. 5 of those 12 losses came this year when half his team went on IR. 

Ultimately, the idea of a "bad QB draft" means nothing. I don't care to draft all the QB's....I want to draft 1. And based on what we have seen in the playoffs and the groups of guys leading the NFL charge at the position, I want a dude...not someone who profiles as a pocket passer. Who are we waiting for? What perfect prospect? 6'0, 190lb Bryce Young? I saw Malik get dinged for his height....guess we are out there too. How about CJ Stroud, the guy who comes from the same production and talent system as Dwayne Haskins? Maybe Spencer Rattler, the guy who lost his job in the most QB friendly environment in all of football. All QBs are going to have faults. 

We are seeing teams be rewarded for taking chances on talent. Herbert is another prime example. He was meant to fail because his offensive line was so great at Oregon and he wouldn't fit in without the clean pocket and the wide open offense. Anyone that has watched him realizes now just how wrong those evaluations were. Teams are taking risk with flaws and building around the strengths. If the Steelers choose to draft Malik, I will be excited that there's a chance to build a guy and a team that functions at the top end of an offensive league. 

Will Malik Willis ultimately unlock that top 3 physical tools? I have no clue, but I would far and away rather gamble on tools vs ordinary at this position. Focus on strengths. Does a guy have high end next level abilities? Can you build around him without the need of a perfect team? The people passing on strengths for fear of weakness are drafting the Sam Darnolds of the world. They are ranking Connor Cook the same as Pat Mahomes. 

One final quote from a scout:

You will have to forgive me if I don't much care what critics who rank Mahomes poorly because of his comparison to Alex Smith say. Some can't see the dynamic traits through the unconventional styles of the QBs and are not seeing that unconventional is driving the position in the modern age. 

Again, no clue if I would take Willis or not. But I wouldn't shut the door. 

Perfection! The twists and the turns were well worth the long read. I agree with everything you said. #respect

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Dcash4

Dcash4

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I definitely agree with the overall message @43M, but there were two spaces I wanted to touch on:

15 hours ago, 43M said:

I dont feel its a good situation for him

I actually think it might be an ideal situation. The only current player on offense that has a C2 is Derek Watt, and he is basically only a special teamer with 1 year left. It's a near blank slate to build an offense the way you want. I also do not see Malik having impact until year 2, so you have two total off-season cycles to get through before he would touch the field. The offensive team that we ended last year with has a very good chance of looking very different than the one that lines up in 2022 game 1, so I don't see the fault as of yet. 

Add that they spent a first round pick on a running back and a second on a TE and I think that speaks to leaning on the run game in the post-Ben world. Build the O-Line, lean on the run game, insert Malik in year 2 would be ideal, IMO. This team will still be focused on the defense first, so that helps too. 

Biggest question is will the coaching staff A) Be good and B) buy in totally. I think they would do B, not so sure about A. 

15 hours ago, 43M said:

but the comparisons to guys like Mahomes and Allen are a massive reach.     Im not even saying they are inaccurate based on certain traits, but its laughable to compare him to possibly the top 2 QBs in the league just because they are comparable IN CERTAIN AREAS.

And just to clarify, I am not asking to compare Malik to the PROS of Mahomes and Allen, but rather the scouting that was done for them. In that sense, they are very similar. Big strengths and huge question marks. But IMO, we see teams building and focusing on strengths where I feel many still try to look at unconventional as an immediate negative. 

Mahomes weaknesses were highlighted all year, as coaches seemed to turn back to his initial scouting report. It was all over the AFC championship game. You see a lot of the same issues with Josh Allen and Lamar that date back to those reports, so the issues are not going away, but teams are really focusing on strengths and mitigating the risk of weakness as best they can. And those teams have been rewarded by being 3 of the top 5 teams in terms of wins the last 3 years. 

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jebrick

jebrick

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1 hour ago, cjfollett said:

@jebrick Cole Kelley invited to the Combine

https://www.nfl.com/news/2022-nfl-scouting-combine-full-list-of-invited-prospects

 

He is a 2 time Walter Payton Award winner.  Someone should take a chance on him.  I'll bet Bruce Ariens does not let him go  undrafted.  He fits perfectly in to what Ba looks for in a QB.

Bailey Zappe vs the Southland Conference/FCS:
32 starts 759/1262 8171 yds 63TDs 38INT
83.3 rating 60.14% 6.47 YPA TD% 5.0 INT% 3.0

C Kelley vs the Southland/FCS
16 starts 563/786 7112 yds 59TDs 12INT
118.1 rating 71.635% 9.05 YPA TD% 7.5 Int% 1.5

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cjfollett

cjfollett

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22 minutes ago, jebrick said:

He is a 2 time Walter Payton Award winner.  Someone should take a chance on him.  I'll bet Bruce Ariens does not let him go  undrafted.  He fits perfectly in to what Ba looks for in a QB.

Bailey Zappe vs the Southland Conference/FCS:
32 starts 759/1262 8171 yds 63TDs 38INT
83.3 rating 60.14% 6.47 YPA TD% 5.0 INT% 3.0

C Kelley vs the Southland/FCS
16 starts 563/786 7112 yds 59TDs 12INT
118.1 rating 71.635% 9.05 YPA TD% 7.5 Int% 1.5

Should be interesting to see if he gets any buzz from the combine. He is going to tower above the rest of the QBs.

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Ward4HOF

Ward4HOF

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On 2/6/2022 at 10:25 AM, 43M said:

I think that's a very VERY generous comparison.  Josh Allen has prototypical NFL QB size.  Willis is below average.   That doesn't mean he cant have success, but fixing some of his issues will be more difficult with that size disadvantage.     

He has elite athleticism and arm strength, but its hard to ignore his size and the level of competition he played at when considering him as a first round pick.   If he was an elite passer at that level, it would be different, but he really wasnt.

And when he did face elite competition this season, he flat-out, stunk up the joint...against Ole Miss, he threw 3 INTs against 0 TDs, and just 173 yds.  Against another ranked team, he was arguable even worse...2 TDs vs 2 INTs, but his completion % was a paltry 41% (14/34).  So, against lower level competition, he looked great...against real competition, he was a combined 2 TDs / 5 INTs, on 30/59 passing, and just 335yds.  I know, it was just 2 games, but IMO, that's pretty telling, especially since these were towards the back half of the season.

I will say this, though, that his Junior year, he looked really good--better than his Senior year.  And I don't mean stats, I mean, his play digressed.  If you watch this 'highlight' video, it shows snippets from most of his games.  Start watching at the 2:22 minute mark, and watch all the way through.  the one thing that stuck most to me, was, that his junior year, he actually showed the ability to go through his progressions; he didn't always pull it down and run.  His Senior year, he did very little of this--at least what I saw.  I could be wrong, but it's something I tried to watch for in this video.  Now, I'm not saying he was great during his Junior year, just better than his Senior year...

And lastly, regardless of whether we do select Willis or not, I hope they 'hedge' their bets, and bring in another QB that they like, in the 6th/7th...just in case...and then go after a few more UDFAs.  I think we might be an attractive team to a lot of these UDFA QBs, since our QB situation is really in flux, and I'm betting at least one or two UDFA's will believe they can compete favorably against Willis...

One last thing--QB is not the only weak position in this draft--the entire 1st Rd options are much 'weaker' this year than last, so while I would be sick if we trade away assets to get Willis, I hope they trade this years assets, and not next years...

 

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