Who is getting overhyped?

[EagleBlueDon]

Saints

[Dome]

46 minutes ago, EagleBlueDon said:

Saints

 

10 hours ago, Dome said:

 

[FrantikRam]

14 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

Ill say the same thing I did in the other thread. The Cheifs. I dont think people are making nearly a big enough deal about them losing 2 of their top 4 players and have essentially penciled them into win the AFCW. I think the Cheifs stand a better chance at finishing 3rd in the division than they do 1st. Not to mention their schedule is a slaughterhouse 

 

I think losing Hill definitely makes them less scary.

But the sheer gap between them and everyone else in the AFCW was HUGE. They have been living in the AFCCG and have won it all while everyone else in the division has a combined one playoff win. The Chiefs have the best coach, QB and OL in that division by a mile. It's scary. If they actually figure out how to run the ball they're going to run away with it again.

As far as Mathieu, their defense has been pretty trash for Mahomes entire tenure. Never holds them back. And the rookies they got seem likely to make a positive impact there.

[Soggust]

22 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

 

I think losing Hill definitely makes them less scary.

But the sheer gap between them and everyone else in the AFCW was HUGE. They have been living in the AFCCG and have won it all while everyone else in the division has a combined one playoff win. The Chiefs have the best coach, QB and OL in that division by a mile. It's scary. If they actually figure out how to run the ball they're going to run away with it again.

As far as Mathieu, their defense has been pretty trash for Mahomes entire tenure. Never holds them back. And the rookies they got seem likely to make a positive impact there.

Yep. Now let me be clear - anything is possible in the NFL. The Chiefs could ABSOLUTELY miss the playoffs (Mahomes injury/Andy Reid gets caught sending feet pics/whatever), as any team could.

But the forest from the trees view here is that they just went 12-5 and to the AFCCG during the worst slump/year of Mahomes career.

Again, it's possible he regresses more (given loss of Hill, especially) - no doubt. But it's also certainly viable that he actually improves and the Chiefs are every bit as dangerous as ever, therefore I think most people are in a "they are the kings until dethroned" stance (I know Bengals/Rams are technically the kings but too many vitamins to think of a better analogy sry).

[Ray Reed]

Eagles are getting the most unwarranted overhyping imo but the most overhyping in general I think is going towards the Chargers 

[Bolts223]

15 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

I'm not talking about homers. Sorry if you took it that way. What I mean is your own fan base would claim to be legit contenders and you guys had a legit argument to make. But it never worked out. That's where the doubt comes from. Now did playing in the same division as Peyton and the same conference as Brady and Ben play a factor in this? Yes.

Yeah I get that. 
 

As someone who is fairly active on both this forum and the Chargers subreddit I can tell you that the expectation going into last season among most online Chargers fans was to be a fringe playoff team. 2018/2019 were the only seasons in the past decade that Chargers fans expected to make the playoffs going into it. (Besides this upcoming one) 
 

The 4-1 start sorta elevated people’s expectations (the defense started out halfway decent), but then the defense started playing like it’s talent level. 

Edited May 21, 2022 by Bolts223

[CP3MVP]

For the first time in a decade plus the cowboys are not being overhyped 

[ThatJaxxenGuy]

The Chargers for me. It feels like they’ve been “poised for a deep run” since 2003

[Jakuvious]

23 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

Ill say the same thing I did in the other thread. The Cheifs. I dont think people are making nearly a big enough deal about them losing 2 of their top 4 players and have essentially penciled them into win the AFCW. I think the Cheifs stand a better chance at finishing 3rd in the division than they do 1st. Not to mention their schedule is a slaughterhouse 

Mathieu was not a top 4 player on the roster last year. He normally would've been 5th in his tenure in KC (Jones is better at what he does than Mathieu), but Mathieu had a down year and we had new pieces that played at a really high level, just at less appealing positions (Humphrey, Thuney, maybe even Bolton and Smith.)

Just, for the record.

[AkronsWitness]

9 hours ago, FrantikRam said:

 

I think losing Hill definitely makes them less scary.

But the sheer gap between them and everyone else in the AFCW was HUGE. They have been living in the AFCCG and have won it all while everyone else in the division has a combined one playoff win. The Chiefs have the best coach, QB and OL in that division by a mile. It's scary. If they actually figure out how to run the ball they're going to run away with it again.

As far as Mathieu, their defense has been pretty trash for Mahomes entire tenure. Never holds them back. And the rookies they got seem likely to make a positive impact there.

'was' being the key word though. Every team in that division improved dramatically this offseason and the Cheifs took a step backwards. Without Hill not only will their offense be less dynamic and quick hitting, but its going to congest the middle of the field making it harder on (getting old) Travis Kelce. They also have absolutely zero run game. CEH has been bad for 2 years straight and I dont see him not still being bad.

I have also wondered how good their defense actually is if they didnt get the benefit of constantly playing with leads and being able to pin the ears back in 80% of games they play. With tighter games in that division that will be played, I dont think that defense will look the same. Take the 1 playmaker they have in their entire secondary out of it and things could get squirrely for them on defense real quick.

I also dont want to undersell how hard their schedule is this year. 

Just saying, if I was a betting man and gambling was legal in my state--I would take a couple of shekels down to the sportsbook and bet the Cheifs not winning the AFCW. There are too many things working against them and they have massive unproven question marks of their own.

If they prove me wrong, so be it.

 

Edited May 22, 2022 by AkronsWitness

[Jakuvious]

5 minutes ago, AkronsWitness said:

'was' being the key word though. Every team in that division improved dramatically this offseason and the Cheifs took a step backwards. Without Hill not only will their offense be less dynamic and quick hitting, but its going to congest the middle of the field making it harder on (getting old) Travis Kelce. They also have absolutely zero run game. CEH has been bad for 2 years straight and I dont see him not still being bad.

I have also wondered how good their defense actually is if they didnt get the benefit of constantly playing with leads and being able to pin the ears back in 80% of games they play. With tighter games in that division that will be played, I dont think that defense will look the same. Take the 1 playmaker they have in their entire secondary out of it and things could get squirrely for them on defense real quick.

I also dont want to undersell how hard their schedule is this year. 

Just saying, if I was a betting man and gambling was legal in my state--I would take a couple of shekels down to the sportsbook and bet the Cheifs not winning the AFCW. There are too many things working against them and they have massive unproven question marks of their own.

We were 8th in yards per attempt and 16th in rushing yards last year. Denver was 70 yards ahead on 24 more attempts, while the other two were behind us. We don't run much. We are not bad when we do it, though. CEH has also been more average than bad. His YPA thus far is just a hair (less than .1 YPA) behind what Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams, and Austin Ekeler did in the division last year.

If we don't have a run game, no one in the division does.

[AkronsWitness]

11 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

We were 8th in yards per attempt and 16th in rushing yards last year. Denver was 70 yards ahead on 24 more attempts, while the other two were behind us. We don't run much. We are not bad when we do it, though. CEH has also been more average than bad. His YPA thus far is just a hair (less than .1 YPA) behind what Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams, and Austin Ekeler did in the division last year.

If we don't have a run game, no one in the division does.

mmmm the production that is there is a product of defenses strictly playing the pass and not being able to load the box because of Kelce/Hill--not because the Cheifs were actually good at pounding the rock. Also, Mahomes running skews the numbers as well considering he had almost 400 yards rushing scrambling around.

I can promise you that the rushing success the Cheifs do get in the middle of a game, isnt because they are good at it--its because defenses are playing soft coverage with 2 safetys back and the Cheifs use it as a counter move.

The Cheifs had two 500 yard rushers, the Broncos had two 900 yard rushers and if CEH wasnt a 1st round pick--he would be on his 4th team by now.

Edited May 22, 2022 by AkronsWitness

[Soggust]

5 minutes ago, AkronsWitness said:

mmmm the production that is there is a product of defenses strictly playing the pass and not being able to load the box because of Kelce/Hill--not because the Cheifs were actually good at pounding the rock. Also, Mahomes running skews the numbers as well considering he had almost 400 yards rushing scrambling around.

I can promise you that the rushing success the Cheifs do get in the middle of a game, isnt because they are good at it--its because defenses are playing soft coverage with 2 safetys back and the Cheifs use it as a counter move.

The Cheifs had two 500 yard rushers, the Broncos had two 900 yard rushers and if CEH wasnt a 1st round pick--he would be on his 4th team by now.

Why do they need to be good at running the ball in a vacuum against teams game planning for the run, if they are doing it effectively enough as a counter?

Are you anticipating Mahomes / the Chiefs passing offense is so affected by the loss of Hill that they will need to turn into a run first team?

[Jakuvious]

2 minutes ago, AkronsWitness said:

mmmm the production that is there is a product of defenses strictly playing the pass and not being able to load the box because of Kelce/Hill--not because the Cheifs were actually good at pounding the rock. Also, Mahomes running skews the numbers as well considering he had almost 400 yards rushing scrambling around.

I can promise you that the rushing success the Cheifs do get in the middle of a game, isnt because they are good at it--its because defenses are playing soft coverage with 2 safetys back.

The Cheifs had two 500 yard rushers, the Broncos had two 900 yard rushers.

If teams decide to stop playing soft coverages next year, awesome. Good call, it's going to be a hell of a year for us. If Hill being gone means teams change how conservatively they play our offense, and we're no longer able to run the ball as a side effect, I will take that, 100%. If they don't, and keep playing soft, hey, we'll still be productive running, by your logic.

The Mahomes bit applies to most teams in the NFL right now. Believe it or not, I included the rushing stats of every QB in those numbers. Even Denver had 150 rushing yards from their QBs.

Also, it isn't like we're known for the massive rehaul of our OL we did last year. Brown, Thuney, Humphrey, and Smith definitely aren't good at run blocking.

[AkronsWitness]

10 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

If teams decide to stop playing soft coverages next year, awesome. Good call, it's going to be a hell of a year for us. If Hill being gone means teams change how conservatively they play our offense, and we're no longer able to run the ball as a side effect, I will take that, 100%. If they don't, and keep playing soft, hey, we'll still be productive running, by your logic.

The Mahomes bit applies to most teams in the NFL right now. Believe it or not, I included the rushing stats of every QB in those numbers. Even Denver had 150 rushing yards from their QBs.

Also, it isn't like we're known for the massive rehaul of our OL we did last year. Brown, Thuney, Humphrey, and Smith definitely aren't good at run blocking.

I think it all comes down to Hardman tbh and if he can become that Tyreke Hill lookalike they drafted him to be and become a weekly consistent threat deep to keep the defenses honest. If he doesnt improve, JuJu isnt making teams adjust their gameplan and Moore is a unproven rookie. The Cheifs could see a lot more bodies close to the LOS and a shrunken middle of the field for Kelce to operate. Which, who knows if they can still be hanging 35+ every week with that adjustment. 

Its not just the deep ball quick hits you lose with Hill, but its the entire defense playing a different style of soft coverage you are losing, which also impacts the run game and so on. It really does have a trickle down effect to a lot of other areas besides deep bombs.

The offense is going to have to work harder and because of that the defense is going to have to work harder.

Some regression will happen just because logic says so, but we shall seeeeeee

 

Edited May 22, 2022 by AkronsWitness