Who is getting overhyped?

[Jakuvious]

1 minute ago, AkronsWitness said:

I think it all comes down to Hardman tbh and if he can become that Tyreke Hill lookalike they drafted him to be and become a weekly consistent threat deep to keep the defenses honest. If he doesnt improve, JuJu isnt making teams adjust their gameplan and Moore is a unproven rookie. The Cheifs could see a lot more bodies close to the LOS and a shrunken middle of the field for Kelce to operate. Which, who knows if they can still be hanging 35+ every week with that adjustment. 

Im betting no just because logic says so, but we shall seeeeeee

 

See, and this is why I will disagree with everyone who thinks things are going to fall apart on offense. Everyone is so obsessed with who is going to replace Hill, and that is 100% not going to happen. They won't even try to replace Hill. Andy Reid started out his time here with a west coast, RB heavy offenses, based on misdirection, short passes, screens, and YAC. The offense became what it was in part because we had Hill. In 2013, we had more targets to Dexter McCluster than to the entire TE corp, because we didn't have Kelce yet, in the same vein. Reid will craft an offense that fits the personnel they have now. They don't need some constant over the top presence to replace Hill. We're going to go from a team with one great WR, and crap behind it, to a team with 3 or 4 solid guys with different specialties. You won't convince me an elite QB and offensive coach won't still result in that being great. I don't think people are overrating Hill, because Hill is obviously an amazing WR and a special talent. But I think people absolutely underrate Andy Reid when they boil this conversation down to just "How will they replace Hill?" That's genuinely the wrong question. The question is how will Reid scheme and structure the offense differently this time? Maybe we're worse deep without Hill, but better on intermediate passes with MVS/Juju. Maybe we run the ball 500 times. I honestly don't know. But it's incredibly foolish, at this point, to doubt Mahomes/Reid. It's like worrying how the Pats defense will do without J.C. Jackson. The mastermind remains.

[JAF-N72EX]

1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

See, and this is why I will disagree with everyone who thinks things are going to fall apart on offense. Everyone is so obsessed with who is going to replace Hill, and that is 100% not going to happen. They won't even try to replace Hill. Andy Reid started out his time here with a west coast, RB heavy offenses, based on misdirection, short passes, screens, and YAC. The offense became what it was in part because we had Hill. In 2013, we had more targets to Dexter McCluster than to the entire TE corp, because we didn't have Kelce yet, in the same vein. Reid will craft an offense that fits the personnel they have now. They don't need some constant over the top presence to replace Hill. We're going to go from a team with one great WR, and crap behind it, to a team with 3 or 4 solid guys with different specialties. You won't convince me an elite QB and offensive coach won't still result in that being great. I don't think people are overrating Hill, because Hill is obviously an amazing WR and a special talent. But I think people absolutely underrate Andy Reid when they boil this conversation down to just "How will they replace Hill?" That's genuinely the wrong question. The question is how will Reid scheme and structure the offense differently this time? Maybe we're worse deep without Hill, but better on intermediate passes with MVS/Juju. Maybe we run the ball 500 times. I honestly don't know. But it's incredibly foolish, at this point, to doubt Mahomes/Reid. It's like worrying how the Pats defense will do without J.C. Jackson. The mastermind remains.

Just to add to this (especially the bolded), I also think people are underestimating Hardman as well. I feel like people are only questioning him as the #1 (well #2 really because of Kelce) only because he hasn't had the opportunity to be one yet. To your point about Ried, he obviously trusts Hardman enough to make him the #1 in place of Hill and I would take his word (or in this case actions) over anything else until proven otherwise. Plus if any QB can elevate the players around him it's Mahomes.

Edited May 22, 2022 by JAF-N72EX

[Soggust]

13 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Just to add to this (especially the bolded), I also think people are underestimating Hardman as well. I feel like people are only questioning him as the #1 (well #2 really because of Kelce) only because he hasn't had the opportunity to be one yet. To your point about Ried, he obviously trusts Hardman enough to make him the #1 in place of Hill and I would take his word (or in this case actions) over anything else until proven otherwise. Plus if any QB can elevate the players around him it's Mahomes.

I don't think Hardman is the 1.

I'm assuming he will start the year as the 4th option (Kelce/JuJu/MVS/Hardman) and will be replaced by Moore hopefully quickly.

[JAF-N72EX]

2 minutes ago, Soggust said:

I don't think Hardman is the 1.

I'm assuming he will start the year as the 4th option (Kelce/JuJu/MVS/Hardman) and will be replaced by Moore hopefully quickly.

It seems like Reid has been talking him up all offseason a little too much to just be a 4. Or is that just PR talk?

[Soggust]

1 minute ago, JAF-N72EX said:

It seems like Reid has been talking him up all offseason a little too much to just be a 4. Or is that just PR talk?

Idk tbh, I assume damage control post Hill?

I'm not sure Reid's gameplan - I am only basing this off of having seen Hardman play.

[FrantikRam]

11 hours ago, Soggust said:

Yep. Now let me be clear - anything is possible in the NFL. The Chiefs could ABSOLUTELY miss the playoffs (Mahomes injury/Andy Reid gets caught sending feet pics/whatever), as any team could.

But the forest from the trees view here is that they just went 12-5 and to the AFCCG during the worst slump/year of Mahomes career.

Again, it's possible he regresses more (given loss of Hill, especially) - no doubt. But it's also certainly viable that he actually improves and the Chiefs are every bit as dangerous as ever, therefore I think most people are in a "they are the kings until dethroned" stance (I know Bengals/Rams are technically the kings but too many vitamins to think of a better analogy sry).

 

Yea I mean in the last four years they are the best team in the NFL (since Mahomes became starter) - it's only been Brady that's really ended them until the Bengals this year, but even there they went from losing the Super Bowl to still playing in the AFCCG, which is rare these days.

Sure, Hill was a big part of that - but Mahomes is either the best or second best QB in the league, almost indisputably. Reid is a top coach.

Predicting them to falter while predicting these other teams to have success - who all have worse QBs and FAR worse coaches - is baffling. Especially considering that none of these teams have really been that close to the Chiefs in the last four years. 

[stl4life07]

I think its the Packers. People just assume that ARod is going to carry this team without Adams. Yes the Packers are like (7-0) without Adams and yes ARod has taken receivers like Adams, Nelson, and others and made them great. So could he take a 2nd round rookie and make him great? Yes. But it wont be this season. Adams wasnt even great his rookie season with ARod. I think the Packers schedule is hard. The Vikings imo will be better, the Lions even will be more feisty than last season bc now they will have health and more talent to match their willing to fight to the very end. If the Packers struggled to score in the playoffs against the Niners with Adams, I cant imagine how they are going to be week to week without him. Plus what happens when the rookie receiver Watson makes mistakes to cause an ARod interception or he fumbles? Remember ARod was targeting the vet Lewis in the playoffs and as soon as Lewis fumbled, ARod stopped throwing to him. If he can do that to a vet he can easily do that to a rookie when he makes a costly mistake in a game. I think the Packers will make the playoffs but I do like the Viking to win the division and Im definitely not putting the Packers in the Superbowl. They was one and done last season and I strongly feel they will be one and done this season in the playoffs again. 

[iloxygenil]

It’s so hard because there are just so many teams that get puffed up this time of year. I feel like the Bills are just written to the AFC CG and I see why, but it feels like they have one of the farthest ways to fall. I guess the Chiefs for a similar reason. 
 

I think the Rams likely are always in that seat in the NFC. The Cowboys get a lot of coverage but I feel like no one really takes them seriously.

[Soko]

10 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Just to add to this (especially the bolded), I also think people are underestimating Hardman as well. I feel like people are only questioning him as the #1 (well #2 really because of Kelce) only because he hasn't had the opportunity to be one yet. To your point about Ried, he obviously trusts Hardman enough to make him the #1 in place of Hill and I would take his word (or in this case actions) over anything else until proven otherwise. Plus if any QB can elevate the players around him it's Mahomes.

Mecole is closer to being a JAG than he is a quality target, IMO. Unreliable gadget player to this point.

[Daniel]

A lot of people are saying the Chargers. I don’t know what their expectations are, but I am not hearing a ton of hype.

I could see them winning the AFCW. I wouldn’t bet on them doing it, but I could see it happening. And that kind of seems to be the consensus.

Hard to call them overhyped for that.

[Bolts223]

15 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

See, and this is why I will disagree with everyone who thinks things are going to fall apart on offense. Everyone is so obsessed with who is going to replace Hill, and that is 100% not going to happen. They won't even try to replace Hill. Andy Reid started out his time here with a west coast, RB heavy offenses, based on misdirection, short passes, screens, and YAC. The offense became what it was in part because we had Hill. In 2013, we had more targets to Dexter McCluster than to the entire TE corp, because we didn't have Kelce yet, in the same vein. Reid will craft an offense that fits the personnel they have now. They don't need some constant over the top presence to replace Hill. We're going to go from a team with one great WR, and crap behind it, to a team with 3 or 4 solid guys with different specialties. You won't convince me an elite QB and offensive coach won't still result in that being great. I don't think people are overrating Hill, because Hill is obviously an amazing WR and a special talent. But I think people absolutely underrate Andy Reid when they boil this conversation down to just "How will they replace Hill?" That's genuinely the wrong question. The question is how will Reid scheme and structure the offense differently this time? Maybe we're worse deep without Hill, but better on intermediate passes with MVS/Juju. Maybe we run the ball 500 times. I honestly don't know. But it's incredibly foolish, at this point, to doubt Mahomes/Reid. It's like worrying how the Pats defense will do without J.C. Jackson. The mastermind remains.

Yeah low key I hate that we play you guys week 2 because it’ll likely be very difficult to prepare for because I expect an entirely different offense than what we’ve seen 2018-present. 

Edited May 22, 2022 by Bolts223

[Jakuvious]

15 hours ago, Soggust said:

I don't think Hardman is the 1.

I'm assuming he will start the year as the 4th option (Kelce/JuJu/MVS/Hardman) and will be replaced by Moore hopefully quickly.

 

15 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

It seems like Reid has been talking him up all offseason a little too much to just be a 4. Or is that just PR talk?

Beyond Kelce being the #1 target, I don't think there's going to be a clear cut WR1/WR2/WR3/WR4. I think Juju, MVS, Hardman, and Moore will all see significant snaps, and will all have roles tailored to them. I could see all 4 guys getting like 600 snaps and 60 - 80 targets before I see any one of them getting Hill's 900 snaps and 160 targets.

And Hardman is a good, useful player. He gets a bit too much crap from some Chiefs fans as he hasn't really developed as hoped. But, he's like 90% of the physical talent of Tyreek Hill, with maybe 20% of the polish. He fumbles more often, until last year at least he dropped way more passes, he has issues with routes and spacing.  But he has already taken over a number of Hill's subpackages from earlier in Hill's career. Hardman has taken over the return duties, the jet sweeps, the screens, etc. We moved away from those things with Hill to let him focus more on being a pure receiver. Rookie Hill got 45 returns and 25 rushes. Last year he had 1 and 9, respectively. So some duties were already handed off. And I'm sure he'll take more of what he's suited for. He's fine on a post or go, underneath routes in space, flat routes, screens, etc. He can take that whole workload. But some things he hasn't shown the capacity for. Hill was basically elite on slants, due to the YAC threat and guys playing off, and while Hill was short he's much bigger than some realize, so he had the strength to still win if contested on slants, curls, outs, etc. Hardman doesn't have that. Hardman doesn't have the polish on his route running for some of the more complicated bits, nor does he have the ball tracking or the feel for when Mahomes is scrambling. You don't get Wasp or elite corner routes with Hardman, but he can outrun a DB on a go route about as well as Hill. I think Juju and Moore supplement some of the underneath stuff Hardman isn't great at, while MVS helps draw some of the deep attention as well. But, we'll see.

[Soggust]

1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

 

Beyond Kelce being the #1 target, I don't think there's going to be a clear cut WR1/WR2/WR3/WR4. I think Juju, MVS, Hardman, and Moore will all see significant snaps, and will all have roles tailored to them. I could see all 4 guys getting like 600 snaps and 60 - 80 targets before I see any one of them getting Hill's 900 snaps and 160 targets.

I'll admit I'm a hater and overdramatizing a bit, but he's clearly not a WR1 and I don't see him topping 1000 yards, even this year, so I think this is a reasonable projection.

 

1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

But he has already taken over a number of Hill's subpackages from earlier in Hill's career. Hardman has taken over the return duties, the jet sweeps, the screens, etc. We moved away from those things with Hill to let him focus more on being a pure receiver. Rookie Hill got 45 returns and 25 rushes. Last year he had 1 and 9, respectively. So some duties were already handed off. 

Hardman has had 25 rushes (reg+postseason) in 3 years. Hill had 37 over that time, in 6 less games. Hill definitely waned off the rushes, but idk that Hardman is really threatening anyone in that department, or in any other department for that matter. Sure, he's a good returner, but that's clearly not what we are hoping for in this discussion.

 

1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

You don't get Wasp or elite corner routes with Hardman, but he can outrun a DB on a go route about as well as Hill. 

Can he? Are we talking about in theory in shorts, or in reality in pads? I have absolutely no stats to back this up so again, it's absolutely possible I'm just a hater and I'm 100% wrong (I'm okay with that), but I cannot remember Hardman really burning anyone on a go route?? Certainly not with any degree of consistency.

He has certainly beat people deep (don't hear what I'm not saying), but I feel like they are almost always busted coverages rather than athletic talent (getting on top of a defender, amazing moves/release off the line, any of the things we have seen Hill do repeatedly). You can't just forget about Hardman, obviously, but I think defenses are fine leaving a single defender on him, even on a go route. No DC in the NFL wants to leave a DB 1 on 1 with Hill on a go route, even if you told the DB the route ahead of time lol.

He has taken a few screens to the house that I can remember, but again, I just feel like it's not the skillset you are hoping for in a WR1 (or even WR2 I would argue).

[mtmmike]

Deshaun watson 

[onejayhawk]

21 hours ago, Soggust said:

I don't think Hardman is the 1.

I'm assuming he will start the year as the 4th option (Kelce/JuJu/MVS/Hardman) and will be replaced by Moore hopefully quickly.

I would not assume that. When Hill was out for a game, Hardman ran his patterns rather well.

With Tyreek not blocking his way, Mecole could blossom. JuJu and Skyy will divvie up the underneath stuff that Robinson and Pringle ran. Presumably, they get more open and more targets. JuJu in particular brings size that Robinson and Pringle did not. I worry a bit about MVS. He's a deep threat like Hardman. We saw how limited tha could become.

Kelce will get his, but there is also the other TE and the RBs to consider. I look for a passing game that involves shorter drops, more timing, and more emphasis on physicality.