Russ signs 5-year, $245M contract

[broncosfan_101]

1 hour ago, BroncoBruin said:

And I think they have a top tier defense unless both Chubb and Gregory flame out this year. Very high ceiling group and it would be a huge disappointment if they don’t finish at least top 10. 

I’m very concerned about the interior of the front 7. I think the starting group between the DL and ILB’s is an average group, but the depth stinks. If Jewell and the Joneses stay healthy, I think we’re a top 10 D, but any injury to those guys would get my stomach turning. 

[BroncoBruin]

38 minutes ago, broncosfan_101 said:

I’m very concerned about the interior of the front 7. I think the starting group between the DL and ILB’s is an average group, but the depth stinks. If Jewell and the Joneses stay healthy, I think we’re a top 10 D, but any injury to those guys would get my stomach turning. 

Yeah they’re short one player in both groups. Not sure Uwazurike did much to earn his roster spot, wonder if they put a claim on Armon Watts who the Bears snagged. If the top four guys (Jones, Jones, Williams, Purcell) stay healthy I think that’s a very good group. And LB they just never seem concerned about, but they should have added someone to knock Strnad out of the two-deep.

They might have solved that issue at CB by bringing in Phillips, the secondary is pretty set now. 

[big_palooka]

11 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

And I think they have a top tier defense unless both Chubb and Gregory flame out this year. Very high ceiling group and it would be a huge disappointment if they don’t finish at least top 10. 

I can see that, certainly. I have to believe we will see some attrition on defense without Fangio's hand in it. He's an all time defensive coach for a reason. And a lot will ride on Chubb and Gregory staying healthy, something both have struggled with in the careers. 

 

[big_palooka]

10 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Looking at what @big_palooka said, I did some very quick research. 

Seattle won the SB in 2013, went back and lost (but should have won) in 2014. Here are their team defense ranks (in scoring) after those years. 

2015: 1st (we were 4th and won the SB), 2016: 3rd, 2017: 14th, 2018: 11th, 2019: 22nd, 2020: 15th, 2021: 12th. 

Russ’s record as a starter those same years. 2015: 10-6, 2016: 10-5-1, 2017: 9-7, 2018: 10-6, 2019: 11-5, 2020: 12-4, 2021: 6-8 (he was injured and missed 3 games). 

That data shows that Russ does not require an elite defense to post a good record. In 2019, Seattle’s worst defensive year of the data set, Russ still led the team to an 11-5 record and posted a 31/6 TD/INT and 106.3 passer rating. In 2020, with a middle of the pack defense ranked 15th, he led them to 12-4 with a 40/13 TD/INT and a 105.1 rating. Furthermore, the argument that the AFCW is just too stacked for Russ to compete, take a look at the NFCW the latter half of Russ’s tenure in Seattle when he was facing McVay’s Rams (2 NFC champs, 1 SB win), Kyle’s Niners (1 NFC champ), and an ascending Arizona team. 

Yes, right now, the AFCW looks good on paper. The Chiefs will be legit, but they have had some attrition. The Chargers have loads of talent but they have had that before and are 0-1 in Super Bowls in 50+ years as a franchise. And the Raiders are coached by Josh McDaniels.

Was not negating his success or w/l record. I am questioning his ability to get to a Super Bowl which is what the trade and contract demand. Wins in the regular season are not a measure of success for the investment.

And I'm speaking of the entire AFC. This conference is a lot harder to navigate with some of the best QBs in the game compared to the NFC with a handful of standouts. 

On McDaniel's.... not going to give him any benefit of doubt he might have learned and grew up some since his last gig at 32? All reports have been positive and you know he can coach an offense. I guess the first sign of adversity will show us how he's matured. 

 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, big_palooka said:

Was not negating his success or w/l record. I am questioning his ability to get to a Super Bowl which is what the trade and contract demand. Wins in the regular season are not a measure of success for the investment.

And I'm speaking of the entire AFC. This conference is a lot harder to navigate with some of the best QBs in the game compared to the NFC with a handful of standouts. 

On McDaniel's.... not going to give him any benefit of doubt he might have learned and grew up some since his last gig at 32? All reports have been positive and you know he can coach an offense. I guess the first sign of adversity will show us how he's matured. 

 

The other context though is Pete Carroll.  His game management is awful.     Without the amazing Legion of Boom he can’t win close games vs good to great teams because he’s so ultra conservative.    Russ has had to overcome this time & again.  
 

The early 2020 “let Russ cook” philosophy has been abandoned to where Carroll ran a top 5 run-pass ratio in neutral gane scripts in the last 1.5 seasons.   Yet had lowest ToP and plays / game in that period.    Run-run-pass with Russ & Metcalf/Lockett as their best weapons on O.    Now this is also how Carroll keeps games closer as a big underdog - but it explains a ton of SEA’s post-season struggles as the D stopped bring dominant.   Bad coaching is often the difference in January.    And as the overall team talent has worsened it’s created the reg season struggles too.    To say Russ wanted out because he was shackled in SEA by Carroll’s philosophy is a massive understatement.   
 

Pete’s early SB win and near-win 2 years later masks the reality his management style works when the D is elite.   When the D is average or worse it’s a massive albatross.  And it’s a huge reason to their lack of playoff success since those LoB days - as the D has worsened, also why the regular season outcomes are seeing more L’s too. 
 

We know Russ still has elite arm talent.   We know he has no long term injury risk.   He’s now free of the most conservative and inefficient O management team (top 5 run to pass game neutral script the last 1.5+ seasons combined   - yet lowest time of possession / plays per game at same time period).    
 

The setup has never been better since the LoB days.    And the crazy part is we’re not even at our peak phase.   The window to contention is just opening given our teams youth and construction.    It’s a pretty exciting time to be a DEN fan…again. 

Edited September 3, 2022 by Broncofan

[champ11]

20 hours ago, big_palooka said:

What fanbases are saying he's washed? I think the argument is, he's not in that elite/all time QB (Rodgers, Brady) conversation. And he probably peaked as far as his prime is concerned. He's noticeably not the same guy with his feet as he was in his 20's. 

He's not a QB who can put a team on his back and take them to a Super Bowl. Could argue he never was as Seattle in their heyday had a historic caliber defense and amazing running game. 

Russel needs pieces in place and he needs that strong run game. Fortunately, he has that in Denver. But the defense is not champion caliber at the moment.

Russell will make the Broncos competitive. But between the contract and the draft picks given up, getting pieces in place to win in the AFC will be tough.

 

So the Broncos did what they needed to do to get a high level quarterback and the onus is now on the FO to fill out the roster and make it championship level. Sounds good to me. If only we had all that cap room and draft picks and Baker Mayfield starting this year instead  

[BroncoBruin]

Hard to imagine being more concerned with finding a couple rotational players than, say, not having a quarterback for 5+ years. 

[lomaxgrUK]

21 hours ago, big_palooka said:

I am questioning his ability to get to a Super Bowl which is what the trade and contract demand. Wins in the regular season are not a measure of success for the investment.

This is just not true. At all, in fact.

Even if we dont get to a Superbowl, I would give up the same picks and the same contract *every single time* to get a QB that can beat any team in the league, win 10+ games consistently and be a factor in the playoffs.

One team gets to win a Superbowl. That's it. If, as a fan, that is your only measure of contentment then you're missing out.

Having a QB like Russ makes us a factor in every game. That's worth the picks and money, zero doubt.

We know the feeling of QB purgatory. It's absolutely ****e. No thank you.

Edited September 4, 2022 by lomaxgrUK

[broncos67]

I am not sure how anyone can be down on this contract. The alternative is purgatory, where we've been since the last Superbowl. No risk, no reward. Russ is still a Top 10 or better QB in this league. At some point he will fall off, but trading for him and signing him to this extension (which is extremely team friendly) gives us a shot down the line. 

It's just nice to have some optimism going into the season for once.

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

Sorry about the delay. Works been crazy!

Concerning the “10% rule”: we can be pedantic and call it the 13.8% rule since people are getting wrapped around the axel about that lol.  The exact number is not what I care about more the principle that overpaying a single player, even the QB, makes it hard to field a complete team. 
 

as for specific instances where it has cost a team I’ve thrown out names every time (and could add Tykeek to that list now) only to be countered with “well they weren’t worth that contract anyway” and we will never truly to the full cost of what the lost as…wait for it… they never pursued those other players because they knew they didn’t have the money!

im not saying I prefer the alternative of what we’ve had the last 7 years, only that it’s a bit like putting your head in the sand if you’re not at least acknowledging that paying a QB 1/6th of your salary cap (assuming it tops $300M) makes it harder to win the SB.

again, we had no other option. We passed on Josh Allen (much to my chagrin) and the don’t lose style of ball we played the last few years left us in purgatory (could those assets have been used to trade up for a QB in next years draft? Perhaps. But we will never know) I love Russ. He’s long been one of my favorites, but I won’t be holding my breath waiting for a parade in Denver between 2025-30

[AnAngryAmerican]

54 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

Sorry about the delay. Works been crazy!

Concerning the “10% rule”: we can be pedantic and call it the 13.8% rule since people are getting wrapped around the axel about that lol.  The exact number is not what I care about more the principle that overpaying a single player, even the QB, makes it hard to field a complete team. 
 

as for specific instances where it has cost a team I’ve thrown out names every time (and could add Tykeek to that list now) only to be countered with “well they weren’t worth that contract anyway” and we will never truly to the full cost of what the lost as…wait for it… they never pursued those other players because they knew they didn’t have the money!

im not saying I prefer the alternative of what we’ve had the last 7 years, only that it’s a bit like putting your head in the sand if you’re not at least acknowledging that paying a QB 1/6th of your salary cap (assuming it tops $300M) makes it harder to win the SB.

again, we had no other option. We passed on Josh Allen (much to my chagrin) and the don’t lose style of ball we played the last few years left us in purgatory (could those assets have been used to trade up for a QB in next years draft? Perhaps. But we will never know) I love Russ. He’s long been one of my favorites, but I won’t be holding my breath waiting for a parade in Denver between 2025-30

It’s true that having to pay a vet QB, no matter how good and how franchise-altering, is suboptimal.

But, and I think is what you’re saying, it’s the second best option (a distant second, but second nonetheless) to ultimate prize of drafting the franchise QB in the first round and having him on a team-friendly deal for at least the first three years of his career. Yet once that drafted QB proves himself, usually early on, he gets paid - Russ got paid in Seattle, Maholmes got paid, Allen got paid, Murray got paid, Lamar will get paid, Burrow will… etc., etc. 

[paul-mac]

25 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

It’s true that having to pay a vet QB, no matter how good and how franchise-altering, is suboptimal.

But, and I think is what you’re saying, it’s the second best option (a distant second, but second nonetheless) to ultimate prize of drafting the franchise QB in the first round and having him on a team-friendly deal for at least the first three years of his career. Yet once that drafted QB proves himself, usually early on, he gets paid - Russ got paid in Seattle, Maholmes got paid, Allen got paid, Murray got paid, Lamar will get paid, Burrow will… etc., etc. 

No one has yet had the balls to just ride a rookie deal QB through his cheap years and then let him walk and draft another one. I expect that a big part of the reason for that is because your odds of finding a good one in the draft are 50/50 at best, and much less than that if you’re picking late, which you almost certainly will if the last guy was any good. It’s (correctly) assumed that letting your promising young QB walk and gambling on another rookie is an act of self-harm, but if the 13.8% rule truly holds them there’s an upside to that move. I still don’t think anyone will do it.

 

TBH I have no issues at all with this contract because I think Wilson can be a top 6-8 QB in the NFL for another 5-6 years. My actual gripe is with teams handing out $25m-$30m a year deals to bang average QBs when they could easily just get the same guy on a rookie deal. 

 

 

[lomaxgrUK]

I don't think a single person in here is going to argue that the best scenario is drafting your own QB and keeping them for 15 years, whilst getting to enjoy circa 3 years of cheap, top end QB pay.

The obvious problem with that is that you have Franchises who've been trying to do that for 10, 20, 30, 40 (Jets) years and haven't managed it.

If you get a chance to acquire a top 10 QB when you don't have one (or someone that has a chance to become one), you take it. We will almost certainly be in the same spot in 5 years time, but I guarantee those 5 years will be a lot more enjoyable than QB purgatory.

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

3 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

I don't think a single person in here is going to argue that the best scenario is drafting your own QB and keeping them for 15 years, whilst getting to enjoy circa 3 years of cheap, top end QB pay.

The obvious problem with that is that you have Franchises who've been trying to do that for 10, 20, 30, 40 (Jets) years and haven't managed it.

If you get a chance to acquire a top 10 QB when you don't have one (or someone that has a chance to become one), you take it. We will almost certainly be in the same spot in 5 years time, but I guarantee those 5 years will be a lot more enjoyable than QB purgatory.

I don’t think anyone is disagreeing with you. Personally, mine’s always been more of a social commentary on the broken cap system and run away QB salaries that has allowed a very good QB (Tom Brady) to become the GOAT simply by always taking far under market value and allowing his teams to acquire more talent. I thought that the dynamics may be changing with him retiring and the cap going up but it appears that QBs will take up most of that extra cap space (avg QB salary nearly doubling in the last 5 years, top end QB salaries going up 150%) 

my prediction is once the retirement of Brady is final, we will continue to see far greater than 50% of SBs won by players on rookie contracts.

[BroncoBruin]

I’m not even sure why we’re supposed to care about 2025 and beyond right now. We have a three year window where our franchise QB is very affordable. Three years is a long time in football! Probably about the average window for a team to compete for a SB in the NFL. If the best case scenario is the star rookie on a cheap deal for four years, a proven Hall of Famer with big game experience on a (relatively) cheap deal for three years is not far behind. And it’s much harder to ID a successful QB in the draft than it is to say “Hey let’s get Russell Wilson / Tom Brady / Peyton Manning”

Edited September 6, 2022 by BroncoBruin