Wide Receiver Outlook

[beekay414]

The only way Kumerow makes the team is if we carry 7 WR. We're not cutting any of the 3 draft pick WRs because they wouldn't make it to our PS. As someone mentioned before, a WR needy team like Dallas/Buffalo/NYJ would scoop whoever got cut in a heartbeat.

[fattlipp]

Where is Allison at with suspensions? Is he up for a year off on the next one?  Could be a factor.

[OneTwoSixFive]

That was a substance abuse suspension. Another one in the same category, judging by history, would be four games minimum, a season maximum.

PEDs tend to be four games (first offense), then 8 games.

The baseline for things like domestic abuse seems to be 6 games now. A second offense could be banishment from the NFL (appeal allowed after a year).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nfl-domestic-violence-policy-suspensions/

 

[SSG]

13 hours ago, Golfman said:

My WR depth as it stands right now:
1. Adams

2. Cobb

3. Kumerow

4. St. Brown

5. Allison

6. Valdez-Scantling

7. Trevor Davis

8. Moore

9. Yancey

10. who cares 

If I am correct on Allison's place on the roster at the #5 receiver (perfectly willing to admit I very well might not be), his roster spot would be tenuous. The #5 WR isn't going to get many reps. Why keep a guy who has reached his upside which, IMO, Allison has. He might be still holding the #3 WR spot at this point of the proceedings. I don't see him keeping that position all year long. 

 

 

 

I think Allison and Kumerow are likely fighting for the same roster spot.  They are extremely low upside guys with experience.  IMO they bring a lot of the same things to an offense. They are are going to be where their supposed to be and they are going to catch the ball.  Thankfully we've got AR12 because not many QBs in the league would have consistent success with either as a starter IMO.  IMO, Allison's only advantage is his age as he's no better of a football player.  Kumerow is every bit the route runner with every but the hands.  He's also a substantially better athlete which might bring a higher ceiling. 

We've made our bed though and hopefully  Adams doesn't miss a snap of football because its going to be a long season if we need either Kumerow or Allison to line up as the #1 option on the outside.  

 

[Packerraymond]

2 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

That was a substance abuse suspension. Another one in the same category, judging by history, would be four games minimum, a season maximum.

PEDs tend to be four games (first offense), then 8 games.

The baseline for things like domestic abuse seems to be 6 games now. A second offense could be banishment from the NFL (appeal allowed after a year).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nfl-domestic-violence-policy-suspensions/

 

If I remember correctly Allison's suspension was an NFL Conduct suspension and not a violation of the leagues drug policy. I believe conduct suspensions are determined on a per case basis and don't have that same scale. Same thing Datone was suspended for and now Aaron Jones.

[craig]

2 hours ago, SSG said:

I think Allison and Kumerow are likely fighting for the same roster spot.  They are extremely low upside guys with experience.  IMO they bring a lot of the same things to an offense. They are are going to be where their supposed to be and they are going to catch the ball. 

I know Kumerow isn't a burner, but I'm not sure his speed is that limiting for a receiver of his length.  

What is there that people have seen or know that is so limiting, actually, about his ceiling?  I honestly don't know that much about the guy's scope and limitations, so I'm sincerely asking.  

Hypothetically, if the only limitation is 4.55 speed for a guy with his height/length, obviously that isn't going to be Julio Jones or Calvin Johnson, but are we sure he's really all that limited? 

Or is the evidence basically that he didn't stay D1, got stashed on Cinci's practice squad, and got hurt last year?  Maybe that's evidence sufficient; but one can at least imagine scenarios where his tools are on-par with most NFL 2's/3rd, but he happened to get stuck behind a talented WR group, and his D3 background made him an easier-than-usual guy to stash; and then that it was the injury not talent that stopped him last year. 

Is it possible that his athletic talent is actually perfectly average for a #3 NFL WR?  That's what I'm wondering.  And if so, whether he might have perfectly normal athletic talent, combined with above-average routes and hands, such that he might end up being a perfectly average or nicely above-average #3 WR for a handful of years?  As opposed to just being a possible black-hole-short-term-roster-filler? 

[Lodestar]

Yeah, I don't see "extremely low upside" with Kumerow. He's big and talented and seems to have some burst, as evidenced by his two long TDs this preseason.

[Cheech]

3 minutes ago, Lodestar said:

Yeah, I don't see "extremely low upside" with Kumerow. He's big and talented and seems to have some burst, as evidenced by his two long TDs this preseason.

I think at this point (26 years old) he is what he is - at least athletically.  He looks like a #3 or #4 receiver right now.  If he develops even more chemistry with 12, he could be a 6 to 8 TD player with 600 - 800 yards depending on playing time.  I have no problem with 16 being on the roster because he's earned it.  

 

 

[MacReady]

The hate on Kumerow is based purely on everybody wanting every receiver or rookie to be a Hall of Fame player from the start.  It's always going to be this way.  People see athletic talent, big plays in college and NFL potential and they assume, because of the EXTREMELY RARE examples, that they'll pick things up immediately, so we don't need a player who is ready to produce. 

Everybody assumes that players will break the NFL mold and decades of history and repeated patterns because they want it to happen.  The same type of expectations existed last year early with Dupre and Yancey.  They existed with Abbrederis and Janis.  Abbrederis was guaranteed 50 catches, Adams was guaranteed cut. 

Marques Colston and Stefon Diggs destroy legitimate expectations for people.

When you've got 3rd-2nd round receivers (Cobb, Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Adams) averaging 38 catches, 499 yards and 2.2 touchdowns in their rookie years, expecting anything close to 30 catches for Moore, MVS, or St. Brown is setting yourself up for disappointment.  Kumerow is ready to provide those numbers right now, but everybody is petrified of losing one of those three receivers.  Just like when we lost Charles Johnson when he had 31 catches, 475 yards and 2 touchdowns in his second season.  We made a huge mistake letting him go and look at how his career has gone since.  60 total receptions and 2 touchdowns.  We blew it.

The reality is that it's three times more likely than not none of our three receivers will ever amount to 1,000 career yards or even 100 career catches.  That's not my opinion of our receivers, that's just the reality of the NFL. 

If people here looked at every rookie receiver drafted after the third round from every other team this year, you'd be guessing they'd be out of the league in two years.  Since they're our rookies, that's impossible. 

Just look at it. 

18 receivers taken from 4-7th rounds in 2014.
9 of them lasted three years or more in the NFL.
2 of them have 50 career receptions.

17 receivers taken from 4th-7th rounds in 2013.
7 of them lasted in the NFL for three years or more.
4 of them have had over 50 career receptions (Marquess Wilson, Kenny Stills, Charles Johnson, Brice Butler).

The Marques Colston, Steffon Diggs, Antonio Browns are 1/100.  Two of our five rookie receivers this year will never make their 50th catch. 

 

[Cheech]

4 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

The Marques Colston, Steffon Diggs, Antonio Browns are 1/100.  Two of our five rookie receivers this year will never make their 50th catch. 

 

I think everyone who wants those rookies on the roster understand this.  Everyone also understands that the rookie receivers have a much better athletic profile than the vast majority of guys who have washed out.  

So who do you keep and who do you cut?  

Moore is seemingly always open.  The guy creates separation on nearly every snap.  He just can't catch the ball right now.  Do you cut him or do you give him a chance to realize his potential to be an explosive receiver? 

MVS was the guy who was supposed to have questionable hands.  He is one of the most explosive athletes at the WR position in the entire NFL.  Some guys test fast.  MVS plays fast.  He's a legitimate deep threat who has surprised many by his ability to run more than one route and the ability to catch the ball in traffic.  Do you cut him?  

EQ looks like he can play right now.  He's a silky smooth route runner and he's been the most reliable with his hands of all of the 3 rookies.  He's a guy who could easily replace Cobb in the slot next year but he also offers deep speed and size that most guys in the slot just don't have.  Do you cut him?  

[MacReady]

^You think Moore, St. Brown and MVS are the only athletic 4th-7th round receivers drafted? 

This is literally what I'm talking about.  You literally just said exactly what I said is the reason.  You responded to me saying that everybody expects them to do so well because they're athletically talented by saying that they're more athletically talented than guys who didn't do anything. 

Aaron Rodgers literally railed on them less than a week ago and people act like that's just something they needed to hear and that they'll get right to being good. 

It's not that simple.  St. Brown won't play special teams and he refuses to stretch and you think that's something that's just gonna be ignored because he made a good move in a preseason game.  To answer your question, yes, you cut him. 

The NFL doesn't work like that.  Athletic talent means **** when you're talking pure odds of a player making an NFL career for oneself.  There have been thousands of physically gifted players who never amounted to anything.  We literally had one of the most physically talented, athletic receivers we've ever had and he 17 regular season catches in four seasons for us and you can't see that athleticism means squat?  This is the NFL, this isn't some athletic measurement.   

[palmy50]

13 hours ago, beekay414 said:

The only way Kumerow makes the team is if we carry 7 WR. We're not cutting any of the 3 draft pick WRs because they wouldn't make it to our PS. As someone mentioned before, a WR needy team like Dallas/Buffalo/NYJ would scoop whoever got cut in a heartbeat.

Agreed. Kumerow sure is making a strong case to keep seven though. Hard not to place a little extra value on the fact Kumerow is ready to go on a team that's this close.

Kumerow would be #7 for me if cuts were tomorrow but he might also be #3 or #4 on the depth charts come week1 if he makes the team. 

[Cheech]

13 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

^You think Moore, St. Brown and MVS are the only athletic 4th-7th round receivers drafted? 

This is literally what I'm talking about.  You literally just said exactly what I said is the reason.  You responded to me saying that everybody expects them to do so well because they're athletically talented by saying that they're more athletically talented than guys who didn't do anything. 

Aaron Rodgers literally railed on them less than a week ago and people act like that's just something they needed to hear and that they'll get right to being good. 

It's not that simple.  St. Brown won't play special teams and he refuses to stretch and you think that's something that's just gonna be ignored because he made a good move in a preseason game.  To answer your question, yes, you cut him. 

The NFL doesn't work like that.  Athletic talent means **** when you're talking pure odds of a player making an NFL career for oneself.  There have been thousands of physically gifted players who never amounted to anything.  We literally had one of the most physically talented, athletic receivers we've ever had and he 17 regular season catches in four seasons for us and you can't see that athleticism means squat?  This is the NFL, this isn't some athletic measurement.   

Nice rant.  So who are you going to cut? 

[MacReady]

Just now, Cheech said:

Nice rant.  So who are you going to cut? 

I just told you.  St. Brown.

[MacReady]

This is a completely different argument if we don't have Aaron Rodgers.  We do have Aaron Rodgers.  We keep the 53 players most ready to help us win this year.  We don't put potential ahead of production at this point in our franchise because we're after Super Bowl wins, not stockpiling potential and / or rebuilding. 

Kumerow is way ahead of all of our rookies as far as what he can provide for us this year.  If that means we risk losing somebody who will be ready in two to three years, so be it.