Rodgers to the Jets Trade Discussion

[DWhitehurst]

36 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

He said that he was close to retiring this off-season and typically guys call it quits fairly quickly once they start mentioning the "R" word. His decision to play this year makes sense because he'll avoid being in the same HOF class as Brady and he gets a $60M bonus. If the Jets win the Super Bowl I could see him retiring after next year, if they get close I could see him coming back for 2024 (I believe he's set to make $50M cash in '24), but if things don't go as planned I just have a hard time seeing him playing beyond next season. 

I'd say 2 years max because if they're good but don't get over the hump he can chase another ring in '24 with $50M in cash incentives. But if they don't win it in 2024, I don't see anyway that he comes back for 2025 considering his potential earnings take a nose dive after 23/24. I'd imagine that seeing guys like Peyton, Brees, and Brady hanging on a little too long will probably factor into his decision as well. 

And I'm not a Jets fan.

That's a sound, cogent argument. Thank you. However, if we are basing such guestimations on what Rodgers has said (on McAffee), then I believe he did dispel his retirement timeline decisions as being affected by when Brady retires, and what I find significant is that he said that he told the Packers brass that he wants nothing to do with a rebuild (which the Packers need if not are already in). I doubt the Jets would win the SB in 2023 with Rodgers (more like 2nd round or AFC Championship game), but I do think their arrow would be headed upwards enough that they could win it in 2024. So unless he completely flopped in 2023 (e.g., QBR tanks), I'd think the Jets would get at least 2 years from him. 

Just my guess.

[NYRaider]

2 minutes ago, DWhitehurst said:

That's a sound, cogent argument. Thank you. However, if we are basing such guestimations on what Rodgers has said (on McAffee), then I believe he did dispel his retirement timeline decisions as being affected by when Brady retires, and what I find significant is that he said that he told the Packers brass that he wants nothing to do with a rebuild (which the Packers need if not are already in). I doubt the Jets would win the SB in 2023 with Rodgers (more like 2nd round or AFC Championship game), but I do think their arrow would be headed upwards enough that they could win it in 2024. So unless he completely flopped in 2023 (e.g., QBR tanks), I'd think the Jets would get at least 2 years from him. 

Just my guess.

I don't think he'd come out and say that he's avoiding the same HOF class as Tom Brady but I think it definitely played a factor and rightfully so. Rodgers is one of the greatest players ever and when it's time for him to enter the HOF he deserves his flowers. When Brady's going into the HOF it's going to be all about him regardless of who else is in his class, IMO. Considering his age and where he's at in his career, why would he have any interest in taking part in a rebuild? 

If what I read is correct and he's set to make $49M in cash during the 2024 season, then I agree, I think he'll probably play two more years.

[DamSamn]

27 minutes ago, nagahide13 said:

I do not believe for one second that this is true. I don't think anyone is on the hotseat, but if the FO decides to make some of the moves the fanbase seems to be suggesting they would be shown the door in a heartbeat. There is a lot of emotion here. I saw someone say that keeping Rodgers for 2024 would be preferable to two third round picks. That decision would get the FO fired.

This is maybe one of the differences between Green Bay's FO and others-

No one is going to get fired for the Rodgers decision in GB. 

Mark Murphy set up the structure and he's not going anywhere until mandatory retirement in summer 2025.  And the team's board loves Murphy- not so much for the on the field production-though it has been good in terms of playoff contention, but for the forward motion he's overseen for the long term financial health of the franchise. I also believe that Gutekunst can't/won't make a decision on #12 without running it past Murphy.  All that means that it is very likely the GM and head coach stay in place through 2025, which means two years of opportunity for Jordan Love to show his stuff or flame out.  After Murphy retires, who knows...but for the next two years I'd be surprised to see any significant FO changes.

[HokieHigh]

9 hours ago, coachbuns said:

Why in the hell would the Packers decide to have Rodgers come back?  IT IS TIME TO MOVE ON ..  it's Love time. 

Sometimes in business you just do the diligence so all options can be considered

[Brit Pack]

When I saw the Mark Murphy clip and him saying with a grin “I would love to tell you everything you want to know about Aaron Rodgers and the Jets but I’m sworn to secrecy not to say anything.” The choice of his words makes it really seem to me that the deal is done and this is all for the purposes of media hype and attention. If he was being serious he could have said something like 'we are working on it' or use the platform to put a bit of pressure on the Jets 'the deal will be done when we get what we want.'

GMs make deals very quickly take the draft, every GM knows how to make things happen, this is not a complex deal. They'll announce it when the media finally gets bored of the story, for the time being they got everyone hooked so why loose that attention, it's all free press. 

Edited March 22, 2023 by Brit Pack

[Old Guy]

54 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

When I saw the Mark Murphy clip and him saying with a grin “I would love to tell you everything you want to know about Aaron Rodgers and the Jets but I’m sworn to secrecy not to say anything.” The choice of his words makes it really seem to me that the deal is done and this is all for the purposes of media hype and attention. If he was being serious he could have said something like 'we are working on it' or use the platform to put a bit of pressure on the Jets 'the deal will be done when we get what we want.'

GMs make deals very quickly take the draft, every GM knows how to make things happen, this is not a complex deal. They'll announce it when the media finally gets bored of the story, for the time being they got everyone hooked so why loose that attention, it's all free press. 

I actually hope this is not true. Next is the games being scripted for biggest bang for their buck. Some think there is nuances of that already with crucial flags being thrown on things that were ignored all game long. 

If this is all one big made-up Soap Opera to garner as much media attention as possible, the NFL has reached a new low. 

[incognito_man]

8 hours ago, nagahide13 said:

I do not believe for one second that this is true. I don't think anyone is on the hotseat, but if the FO decides to make some of the moves the fanbase seems to be suggesting they would be shown the door in a heartbeat. There is a lot of emotion here. I saw someone say that keeping Rodgers for 2024 would be preferable to two third round picks. That decision would get the FO fired.

So we keep Rodgers, Love wins the MVP and Gute and MLF get fired because we didn't get a 3rd round pick instead.

Got it.

Makes sense

Edited March 22, 2023 by incognito_man

[sinceAtikevike]

3 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

So we keep Rodgers, Love wins the MVP and Gute and MLF get fired.

Got it.

Makes sense

In this scenario, does GB exercise the option (pay #12 60 million in cash and then have a looming 70 million dead cap hit in 24) or do they not exercise the option (make room for the full 58 million option payment on the 2023 cap?)

[Packerraymond]

10 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

Like the worst case scenario for the Packers is to eat $31,623,568 in cap space to have Rodgers around (which is accounted for already) and then to cut him in 2024 for $24,480,000 in dead cap.

Meanwhile the worst case scenario for the Jets is that they roll out with Zach Wilson again, and go like 6-11 because the defense is still good which isn't bad enough to get Caleb Williams but both Saleh and Douglas would likely be (justifiably) fired.

Like Saleh is a good coach and I think highly of him, but he's 10-23.  He needs to make the playoffs to keep his job.  The job of "figuring out who's going to be the for the Jets in 4 years" can either fall to Saleh and Douglas if they can make a run at it this year, or it can fall to the next HC and GM, it's up to them.

That's not true. You can't have Rodgers on the roster without exercising his 58m option bonus. 12m of that falls on this year's cap, but take the other 46m and add it to your 24m and that's his dead cap to be cut in 2024.

[incognito_man]

1 minute ago, sinceAtikevike said:

In this scenario, does GB exercise the option (pay #12 60 million in cash and then have a looming 70 million dead cap hit in 24) or do they not exercise the option (make room for the full 58 million option payment on the 2023 cap?)

Doesn't matter.

That's the point. It doesn't matter at all.

The only thing that matters for their jobs is how Love does.

[Packerraymond]

1 hour ago, Brit Pack said:

When I saw the Mark Murphy clip and him saying with a grin “I would love to tell you everything you want to know about Aaron Rodgers and the Jets but I’m sworn to secrecy not to say anything.” The choice of his words makes it really seem to me that the deal is done and this is all for the purposes of media hype and attention. If he was being serious he could have said something like 'we are working on it' or use the platform to put a bit of pressure on the Jets 'the deal will be done when we get what we want.'

GMs make deals very quickly take the draft, every GM knows how to make things happen, this is not a complex deal. They'll announce it when the media finally gets bored of the story, for the time being they got everyone hooked so why loose that attention, it's all free press. 

I highly doubt this is true.

This is a complex deal when it comes to Rodgers money. The Jets get a low cap hit this year and next but are left with the same large hit in 2025 that we would be this year if he's cut or retires. I'm sure the contract and the conditions of future compensation are sticking points.

The only thing "simple" about this deal is this year's compensation. If it's pick 13, your future comp will be minimal. If it's pick 43 you'll want decent odds of future compensation reaching round 1-2 status. If it's a 3rd, you're pretty much going to want a guarantee if Rodgers is on next year's team that the 2024 or 2025 Jets 1st round pick is yours. Plus there's the decision if any players will be involved.

[sinceAtikevike]

1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

Doesn't matter.

That's the point. It doesn't matter at all.

The only thing that matters for their jobs is how Love does.

Ok sure; maybe...Gute/Murphy/MLF keep their jobs if Love is a + NFL QB. However, they won't win games playing with a 70 million dollar (28% of next year's projected cap) dead cap charge for the QB they refused to deal. They won't fully support Love's development by not using that 70 million towards a defense or weapons for him.

These takes are fun for fans; I get it. But they aren't sincere paths for the actual GB front office to take.

[incognito_man]

8 minutes ago, sinceAtikevike said:

Ok sure; maybe...Gute/Murphy/MLF keep their jobs if Love is a + NFL QB. However, they won't win games playing with a 70 million dollar (28% of next year's projected cap) dead cap charge for the QB they refused to deal. They won't fully support Love's development by not using that 70 million towards a defense or weapons for him.

These takes are fun for fans; I get it. But they aren't sincere paths for the actual GB front office to take.

A $70 million hit worsens the team around Love, absolutely. But if he still looks great it literally doesn't matter. They'll keep their jobs.

They are joined at the hip to Love. If he succeeds, they have job security for a bit. If he doesn't, they don't unless they find an immediate suitable replacement.

[Brit Pack]

15 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

That's not true. You can't have Rodgers on the roster without exercising his 58m option bonus. 12m of that falls on this year's cap, but take the other 46m and add it to your 24m and that's his dead cap to be cut in 2024.

I'm not disagreeing per se but Spotrac does have it as PossibleCabbage laid out. Not sure how it works as what you have said makes sense to me and that's how I thought it would be.

[sinceAtikevike]

21 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

I'm not disagreeing per se but Spotrac does have it as PossibleCabbage laid out. Not sure how it works as what you have said makes sense to me and that's how I thought it would be.

OTC/Sportrac/etc display the cap numbers as such because "From a salary cap standpoint, the presumption is option years will be picked up." <--https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-aaron-rodgers-trade-value-logistics-of-dealing-packers-star-qb-plus-best-fits-around-nfl/

When @PossibleCabbage states that "Like the worst case scenario for the Packers is to eat $31,623,568 in cap space to have Rodgers around (which is accounted for already) and then to cut him in 2024 for $24,480,000 in dead cap." What is missing from that statement is that "the 31 million cap charge for 2023 is if GB exercises the option, but as soon as they do the 24.4 million dead cap in 2024 is no longer valid. The second option of the double option contract becomes valid and the dead cap for 2024 jumps to 70 million."

The worst case scenario is - retain #12, exercise the option, pay him 60 million in cash to sit this year, carry a 70 million dollar dead cap charge next year. Doomsday scenario stuff...especially because it doesn't touch at all on Aaron's platform to make that option unbearable with his behavior.

 

Edit- cap space to cap charge

Edited March 22, 2023 by sinceAtikevike