Rodgers to the Jets Trade Discussion

[thrILL!]

4 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

If I'm the Hawks do I want Geno or Rodgers, if I'm the Texans do I want 1st rounder QB or Rodgers and let 1st rounder QB sit for a year or two, if I am the Raiders do I want Jimmy G or Rodgers, et etc.

To think Rodgers is that undervalued I feel is a misdemeanour. All these teams got a bit of cap space. You are bringing arguably the best thrower of the ball into your locker room and you can buy in the rest of the talent and go all in like the Bus and Rams did.

I think you’re overvaluing Rodgers for the QB he used to be instead of valuing the QB he is. He laid another fat egg when it was clutch time.  And instead of a NFCCG, it was the final week of the reg season vs the Lions.  He’s been washed up since the playoff loss vs SF (arguably the finale vs DET right before that). 

If I’m the Texans, I’m not filling up all my cap space with that version of Rodgers when I could use it for literally anything or anyone else that helps the team long term.  Their organization is trying to overhaul the mess they’ve been for awhile now.  Throwing a Molotov cocktail into the mix is the opposite of that. 

[Brit Pack]

2 minutes ago, 15412 said:

I think this deal could get done without a guaranteed 1st involved, but it would take multiple other picks and maybe a player this year and a conditional pick next.

My apologies I got time at work today and nothing better to do, but if this was the case and it didn't take a 1st rounder why are other teams not involved in this??

The price must have always been a 1st rounder or something very high, otherwise other bidders would have been in the market for his services.

Jets owner is bigging up Derek Carr in the media, saying he is HoF QB etc but Carr chooses the Saints on Monday the 6th of March, on Tuesday the 7th of March the Jets cohort flew out to meet Rodgers. They were willing to meet the asking price, if they are not why would the Packers allow them to meet with their asset?
 

[R T]

14 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

No .. it could be the Packers that are jacking this thing up.  Not sure of that either.  Both sides are pretty tight lipped which is causing a ton of speculation.  Hopefully both sides hunker down at the owners meetings and meet in the middle somewhere. 

Could be that no one is jacking things up and the deal is already agreed upon too. In the end we may find it was something as simple as the Packers wanted to do the deal as a post June 1st deal. 

[sinceAtikevike]

6 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

My apologies I got time at work today and nothing better to do, but if this was the case and it didn't take a 1st rounder why are other teams not involved in this??
Money. 60 million in cash flow this year + the way that cap hits future years (overall, this is in the con column for getting more involvement/higher returns)
The price must have always been a 1st rounder or something very high, otherwise other bidders would have been in the market for his services.

Jets owner is bigging up Derek Carr in the media, saying he is HoF QB etc but Carr chooses the Saints on Monday the 6th of March, on Tuesday the 7th of March the Jets cohort flew out to meet Rodgers. They were willing to meet the asking price, if they are not why would the Packers allow them to meet with their asset?
I agree; there must have been some conversation prior to allowing the meeting. GB knows they have to trade him; Jets know they want him. There had to have been some "we're likely offering around this" compared against "we're going to accept somewhere around this" conversations. As posted above, could be as simple as timing. Maybe the thing the packers dug their heels in on (Rodger's words) was the timing?

 

[MaximusGluteus]

4 minutes ago, R T said:

Could be that no one is jacking things up and the deal is already agreed upon too. In the end we may find it was something as simple as the Packers wanted to do the deal as a post June 1st deal. 

I've been wondering this as well.  Maybe there's a handshake agreement in place to trade Rodgers after June 1 so GB can spread out the cap hit.

[15412]

2 hours ago, Brit Pack said:

My apologies I got time at work today and nothing better to do, but if this was the case and it didn't take a 1st rounder why are other teams not involved in this??

The price must have always been a 1st rounder or something very high, otherwise other bidders would have been in the market for his services.

Jets owner is bigging up Derek Carr in the media, saying he is HoF QB etc but Carr chooses the Saints on Monday the 6th of March, on Tuesday the 7th of March the Jets cohort flew out to meet Rodgers. They were willing to meet the asking price, if they are not why would the Packers allow them to meet with their asset?
 

Good questions and there are many variables at play.  The Packers may have let the two talk without compensation being fully mapped out with no need to go further if either side lost interest.  Or maybe comp was talked about, but now the Jets want the Packers to take on more contract.   Or other teams were scared off by money and age, or maybe Rodg didn’t want to go there and at the time the Packers appeased him.  Or a dozen more possibilities.   
 

Or it is all done but it’s a June thing.    I don’t believe for a second that’s it

[TransientTexan]

3 hours ago, Brit Pack said:

I'm not disagreeing per se but Spotrac does have it as PossibleCabbage laid out. Not sure how it works as what you have said makes sense to me and that's how I thought it would be.

Spotrac isn’t equipped to show all the different permutations of Rodger’s deal. It would make more sense to readers if the bonuses were split apart instead of lumped together. 

2023: 1.17bs + 12.98SB + 14.58opt(‘23) + 2.85rest = 31.58m

2024: 2.25bs + 8.16SB + 14.58opt(‘23) + 15.67opt(‘24) = 40.66m

2025: 15.85bs + 8.16SB + 14.58opt(‘23) + 15.67opt(‘24) = 54.26m

2026: 10.00bs + 8.16SB + 14.58opt(‘23) + 15.67opt(‘24) = 48.41m

It’s likely only showing the dead money from the signing bonus (italic text), because it technically doesn’t 100% know if GB would pick the prorated option for the 2023 charge or the non-prorated option (which would turn into 2023 base salary). But we know that the latter choice is impossible (a +58m cap hit on 2023 cap). So they must to prorate it. Which means all the prorated charges from the 2023 option (bold text) would accelerate to 2024 cap if cut after 2023.

So you’d have your 24.48m dead money from the signing bonus (8.16+8.16+8.16), plus 43.74m dead money from the accelerating 2023-option-bonus prorations (14.58+14.58+14.58). 

in case it isn’t clear 14.58 comes from (58.3m divided by 4yr), and 15.67 comes from (47m divided by 3yr). Which are the total bonus values given in the Spotrac notes underneath. 
 

 

[TransientTexan]

4 minutes ago, MaximusGluteus said:

I've been wondering this as well.  Maybe there's a handshake agreement in place to trade Rodgers after June 1 so GB can spread out the cap hit.

If that was the case, it wouldn’t really make sense to keep it a secret. There would be nothing illegal about GB & NYJ announcing that the trade is currently finalized, but won’t process until June 1st due to cap reasons.

[Brit Pack]

2 minutes ago, sinceAtikevike said:

Money. 60 million in cash flow this year + the way that cap hits future years (overall, this is in the con column for getting more involvement/higher returns)

With the cash and cap hits at what point does interest start? Surely a 2nd rounder would have brought more teams into the market and if it was a 3rd rounder ala the Favre deal, even with the cap and cash hits, the Niners would have been all over it for sure. 

Again the timing with the Carr signing and the Jets going out to me means that the ask from the Packers has always been high hence why not multiple teams were interested, they were looking to bait a hungry team and they got it with the Jets.

For me again it made no sense for Rodgers to make his statement when he did. Unless he wants to deflect the blame for the hold up (when he is the hold up on how long he'll play for) or it is some ploy to get the Packers to reduce the price.

Never has anything like this happened before where a player comes out and says his intent is to play for a team without the teams already having a deal in place. Never. 

[incognito_man]

3 hours ago, R T said:

The thing is does anyone know if the Jets are being unreasonable. 

Yep.

They are being irrational if they aren't offering pick 13. *Edit - or equivalent value

Because you don't target a guy you don't think can win you a SB. And if you think he can, he's easily worth that pick.

So they either think he can't (which then makes any attempt to get him irrational), or they aren't being rational about what that's worth to them.

It's totally irrational to believe you can get a guy you think you can win a SB with for peanuts.

Edited March 22, 2023 by incognito_man

[TransientTexan]

4 hours ago, sinceAtikevike said:

Ok sure; maybe...Gute/Murphy/MLF keep their jobs if Love is a + NFL QB. However, they won't win games playing with a 70 million dollar (28% of next year's projected cap) dead cap charge for the QB they refused to deal. They won't fully support Love's development by not using that 70 million towards a defense or weapons for him.

These takes are fun for fans; I get it. But they aren't sincere paths for the actual GB front office to take.

It’s a 1yr hit. Them taking 1 year off from winning a lot of games isn’t going to get them fired, especially given the previous success they’ve had. It’d also net them a high draft pick via the tank. No lasting damage in 2025.

[sinceAtikevike]

2 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

With the cash and cap hits at what point does interest start? Surely a 2nd rounder would have brought more teams into the market and if it was a 3rd rounder ala the Favre deal, even with the cap and cash hits, the Niners would have been all over it for sure. 
49ers sent 21/22/23 1sts and a 22 3rd to Miami in order to draft Lance. 60 million in cash + large future dead cap charges if/when Rodgers retired + the investment in Lance likely took 49ers out of the conversation. Every single NFL team (besides teams with young franchise QBs - Bengals/Chargers/Chiefs/etc) did their due diligence on trading for Rodgers and the Jets were the only team in on it.
Again the timing with the Carr signing and the Jets going out to me means that the ask from the Packers has always been high hence why not multiple teams were interested, they were looking to bait a hungry team and they got it with the Jets.
Why does the timing of the Jets/Rodgers visit and the Carr signing necessitate a high asking price by GB? I don't follow why one means the other is true. I don't think the Jets were blind-sided by the Carr to Saints news and then scrambled to pivot to Rodgers; I think they were working both options simultaneously. I think it is likely that the knowledge that GB needed to move #12 led to the Jets withholding a bit in their negotiations with Carr's reps.
For me again it made no sense for Rodgers to make his statement when he did. Unless he wants to deflect the blame for the hold up (when he is the hold up on how long he'll play for) or it is some ploy to get the Packers to reduce the price.

Never has anything like this happened before where a player comes out and says his intent is to play for a team without the teams already having a deal in place. Never. 

 

[sinceAtikevike]

8 minutes ago, TransientTexan said:

It’s a 1yr hit. Them taking 1 year off from winning a lot of games isn’t going to get them fired, especially given the previous success they’ve had. It’d also net them a high draft pick via the tank. No lasting damage in 2025.

Using the rational actor model of decision-making, which would you choose-

GB receives- Any non-zero draft pick comp, 40 million in dead cap in 2023, clean/clear of Rodgers for 2024

GB receives- Zero draft pick comp, Rodgers in the building (with all that entails) and a decision to make on the 23 option (don't exercise- 75m cap hit in 2023 or do exercise- Now there is a 70 million dead cap hit in 2024)

Edited March 22, 2023 by sinceAtikevike

[Brit Pack]

27 minutes ago, TransientTexan said:

Spotrac isn’t equipped to show all the different permutations of Rodger’s deal. It would make more sense to readers if the bonuses were split apart instead of lumped together. 

2023: 1.17bs + 12.98SB + 14.58opt(‘23) + 2.85rest = 31.58m

2024: 2.25bs + 8.16SB + 14.58opt(‘23) + 15.67opt(‘24) = 40.66m

2025: 15.85bs + 8.16SB + 14.58opt(‘23) + 15.67opt(‘24) = 54.26m

2026: 10.00bs + 8.16SB + 14.58opt(‘23) + 15.67opt(‘24) = 48.41m

It’s likely only showing the dead money from the signing bonus (italic text), because it technically doesn’t 100% know if GB would pick the prorated option for the 2023 charge or the non-prorated option (which would turn into 2023 base salary). But we know that the latter choice is impossible (a +58m cap hit on 2023 cap). So they must to prorate it. Which means all the prorated charges from the 2023 option (bold text) would accelerate to 2024 cap if cut after 2023.

So you’d have your 24.48m dead money from the signing bonus (8.16+8.16+8.16), plus 43.74m dead money from the accelerating 2023-option-bonus prorations (14.58+14.58+14.58). 

in case it isn’t clear 14.58 comes from (58.3m divided by 4yr), and 15.67 comes from (47m divided by 3yr). Which are the total bonus values given in the Spotrac notes underneath. 
 

 

Appreciate you taking the time to explain that. Thank you

[Green19]

2 minutes ago, sinceAtikevike said:

Using the rational actor model of decision-making, which would you choose-

GB receives- Peanuts in draft pick comp, 40 million in dead cap in 2023, clean/clear of Rodgers for 2024

GB receives- Rodgers in the building (with all that entails) and a decision to make on the 23 option (don't exercise- 75m cap hit in 2023 or do exercise- Now there is a 70 million dead cap hit in 2024)

Whatever pisses Jets fans and Rodgers off the most…

edit: and Pat, can’t forget him too.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Green19