Week 18 Gameday Thread (Win And In Edition) - Green Bay Packers (8-8-0) vs. Detroit Lions (8-8-0)

[Arthur Penske]

2 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Best scenario is Vikings, Packers, Seahawks, Niners, Cowboys, Giants winning this next week.

There might be some weird scenario where those things don't work up to this, but I'm assuming other games don't matter to make this happen...

Packers would go to Dallas.
Giants to Minnesota.
Eagles to Tampa Bay.

Packers have to beat the Niners no matter what scenario I can concoct, but this is the best scenario for the rest of the way.

Packers, Vikings, Buccaneers win the first week.

Packers would go in and surprise the Niners.
Vikings would beat the Buccaneers.

Packers-Vikings championship game.

In the AFC we'd hope for the Jaguars, Chargers, Ravens, Steelers and Bengals tearing things up.

Chiefs or Bills would take a miracle to beat.

Those other teams? I'd see us as the favorites.

No way. I want the Vikings first because they’re going to get dragged by about anyone aside from the giants.

 

4 hours ago, Striker said:

I cannot believe we are still in this.

The Packers need to send a nice fruit basket or something to Ron Rivera and Carson Wentz.

Imagine if that scoop and score vs Washington hadn’t been called back on the BS penalty 

[incognito_man]

7 minutes ago, Norm said:

Well I didn't mean as a fan, I meant as a franchise obviously. This is way better than tanking for me.

since GB is owned by the fans, are they a fanchise?

[Mr. Fussnputz]

We have two red hot teams meeting in Lambeau on Sunday, both 8-8. OK, I'll admit it. I'll never completely understand DVOA, but those of you who do understand DVOA, what does it say about how the two teams match up on Sunday?

[Old Guy]

We better put on our big boy pads against the Lions. They might have the best offensive line in football and two RB's who are tough as hell in Swift and Williams. 

Their WR's are pretty good too. Besides St. Brown, they have DJ Chark and now Jameson Williams is getting healthy. They've actually gotten more production from their TE's since they traded Hockenson as well. 

IF you don't get pressure on Goff, he can throw the ball accurately. He's actually having a very good year. 

Defensively Hutchinson is a beast and this rookie free agent EDGE rusher who Deion coached, has 8 sacks in his first six games. 

Their secondary is weak, and their linebackers can be exposed in coverage. 

[Mazrimiv]

Somewhat surprisingly (to me) is that the NFL has flexed JAX/TEN to Saturday, which puts GB/DET firmly in the running for Sunday night.  JAX actually gets kind of screwed on this deal with TEN coming off a mini-bye/Thursday game while JAX played on Sunday.

From a logic standpoint, JAX/TEN seemed like the clear choice for Sunday night, but ratings beats logic every time. 

[craig]

1 hour ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

We have two red hot teams meeting in Lambeau on Sunday, both 8-8. OK, I'll admit it. I'll never completely understand DVOA, but those of you who do understand DVOA, what does it say about how the two teams match up on Sunday?

Detroit is ahead of GB in DVOA.  And point-differential.  

Packers have gotten some super-lucky breaks.  Vikes having their starting and backup centers both injured, and struggling with 3rd-string center.  Tua playing 2nd half and throwing interceptions with concussion.  

Will probably need some more lucky breaks.  But so fun to have it be possible to win out. 

Packers are kind of a good matchup for Detroit, maybe?  Detroit has a highly vulnerable pass defense.  Packers are below-league-average in passing yards, passing attempts, and 21st in passer-rating.  So Detroit's pass-vulnerability may not be as severely exposed by Green Bay as by some other pass-oriented teams? 

 

[Old Guy]

22 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

Somewhat surprisingly (to me) is that the NFL has flexed JAX/TEN to Saturday, which puts GB/DET firmly in the running for Sunday night.  JAX actually gets kind of screwed on this deal with TEN coming off a mini-bye/Thursday game while JAX played on Sunday.

From a logic standpoint, JAX/TEN seemed like the clear choice for Sunday night, but ratings beats logic every time. 

There is logic for leaving us in earlier slot though. If Seattle wins isn't Detroit eliminated from playoff contention? Meaning Detroit can only play spoiler. 

[craig]

What do you guys think about the Nijman/Tom situation?  Is MLF just going to go with Tom, Nijman's health regardless?  Or *IF* Nijman has some more days to rest and is viewed as pretty-much healthy by Sunday, will Nijman take that spot back?  

1. Nijman started but got replaced pretty early.
2. Nijman apparently still played on ST.  So I'm not sure how injured he was or is.  
3. Thus I'm not sure how much the switch was about injury, versus perhaps just preferring Tom? 
4. If it's injury, 7 more days and Nijman might be less injured and be back.  If they kinda just prefer Tom now, especially after the game he played, then 7 more days wouldn't seem likely to change that.  

Tom often seems bull-rushed pretty forcefully, he's just small and not that strong.  And he doesn't seem very forceful as a run-blocker.  But he's quick and pretty consistently gets in the way for pass-rush.  

I'd guess Rodgers would kinda know that side of the pocket is going to be collapsing in pretty steadily, and he better not hold it for long before throwing or scrambling in some other direction.  But instantly-beat is pretty rare with Tom, so Rodgers could at least have some security that he's got two seconds.  

[craig]

6 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

There is logic for leaving us in earlier slot though. If Seattle wins isn't Detroit eliminated from playoff contention? Meaning Detroit can only play spoiler. 

Agree, yes.  If Seattle plays and wins before we ever hit the field, Detroit would already be out before they hit the field.  

[Mazrimiv]

5 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

There is logic for leaving us in earlier slot though. If Seattle wins isn't Detroit eliminated from playoff contention? Meaning Detroit can only play spoiler. 

Which is exactly why I thought JAX/TEN would be the Sunday night game.  The league typically flexes a win and in game to Sunday night.  Now that JAX/TEN is off the table, GB/DET is one of the few remaining options.  

[Mazrimiv]

from CBSSports.com

Quote

As for the Sunday night game, it's still not clear which game is going to end up there. The NFL will almost certainly go with Ravens-Bengals or Lions-Packers. According to at least one report, the NFL is leaning toward putting the Packers game there since it would be Aaron Rodgers playing in prime time with the Packers' season on the line. The only issue with putting that game in prime time is that the Lions' playoff chances could be dead by the time the game kicks off if the Seahawks beat the Rams in Week 18. 

Of course, if the Bengals beat the Bills on Monday, then they'll clinch the AFC North and if that happens, then Lions-Packers would be the only practical option. 

 

[Old Guy]

2 minutes ago, craig said:

What do you guys think about the Nijman/Tom situation?  Is MLF just going to go with Tom, Nijman's health regardless?  Or *IF* Nijman has some more days to rest and is viewed as pretty-much healthy by Sunday, will Nijman take that spot back?  

1. Nijman started but got replaced pretty early.
2. Nijman apparently still played on ST.  So I'm not sure how injured he was or is.  
3. Thus I'm not sure how much the switch was about injury, versus perhaps just preferring Tom? 
4. If it's injury, 7 more days and Nijman might be less injured and be back.  If they kinda just prefer Tom now, especially after the game he played, then 7 more days wouldn't seem likely to change that.  

Tom often seems bull-rushed pretty forcefully, he's just small and not that strong.  And he doesn't seem very forceful as a run-blocker.  But he's quick and pretty consistently gets in the way for pass-rush.  

I'd guess Rodgers would kinda know that side of the pocket is going to be collapsing in pretty steadily, and he better not hold it for long before throwing or scrambling in some other direction.  But instantly-beat is pretty rare with Tom, so Rodgers could at least have some security that he's got two seconds.  

Hutchinson plays over the RT a lot. He's by far their best. I don't know the answer, but nobody is a rookie any longer, so MLF has to play the best guy over there. Regardless of whose feeling may get hurt. 

[NFLGURU]

Joe Barry may have saved his job over the past few weeks, yesterday was a step in that direction.

[craig]

15 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

Hutchinson plays over the RT a lot. He's by far their best. I don't know the answer, but nobody is a rookie any longer, so MLF has to play the best guy over there. Regardless of whose feeling may get hurt. 

Thanks, OG, I'd wondered how L/R distributed Hutchinson might be.  And agree for sure, MLF has to make that decision, personal feelings notwithstanding.  I think Tom has played very little on the right side, correct?  He's played LT and LG, but wasn't yesterday his first snaps at RT?  

Will be interesting to see how MLF plays it.  

[Sandy]

39 minutes ago, craig said:

Detroit is ahead of GB in DVOA.  And point-differential.  

Packers have gotten some super-lucky breaks.  Vikes having their starting and backup centers both injured, and struggling with 3rd-string center.  Tua playing 2nd half and throwing interceptions with concussion.  

Will probably need some more lucky breaks.  But so fun to have it be possible to win out. 

Packers are kind of a good matchup for Detroit, maybe?  Detroit has a highly vulnerable pass defense.  Packers are below-league-average in passing yards, passing attempts, and 21st in passer-rating.  So Detroit's pass-vulnerability may not be as severely exposed by Green Bay as by some other pass-oriented teams? 

 

Do you have access to the Monday update? I know Detroit was 9th and we were 11th after week 16, and the Packers had the third highest score in week 17. We had been virtually tied (4ish%) with Detroit going into it so we may have pulled ahead. 

I can also see DVOA rankings for the last four weeks. We're the best team in football over that stretch, Detroit is 10th.