Coaching changes coming? Update: JDR fired!

[NightTrainLane]

3 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

The main issue I detect with Downing is he doesn't call the game according to Carr's strengths -- which is strange considering how close they reportedly are. In a vacuum, I probably like Downing's play sheet better than Musgrave, but Carr thrived in last year's simplified system. Carr seems most comfortable making easy reads but tough throws.

For example: four verticals was a staple in the Raiders offense last season. Carr could easily identify where the extra safety help went and made a play according to what he saw. There was a PFF metric last season saying Carr was among the top players in the league making "tough" throws.

This season, we're seeing more plays where the combination of routes get guys open rather than Carr's ability to make a throw. Carr simply doesn't see the field at an elite level, but he can make a throw at an elite level. Downing is trying to win with scheme and less with Carr's arm.

Nice insight. Sounds exactly like what Ted Nguyen said a bit ago. Gonna take awhile to find the link.

[Silver&Black88]

6 hours ago, oakdb36 said:

I don't know if letting Musgrave go was a mistake since no team even offered him an OC job when he was unsigned. It seems the league didn't think much of him despite the good results from our 2016 offense.

The real mistake was thinking Downing was ready for the job. It's baffling when they had been working with him for the last 2 years.

Agreed.  What's more is that I think I remember reading teams were enamored him as an OC candidate.  I thought I read he had like 3 or 4 offers on the table. IIRC one was from the Jets.

[Rich7sena]

3 hours ago, NightTrainLane said:

Nice insight. Sounds exactly like what Ted Nguyen said a bit ago. Gonna take awhile to find the link.

The more I watch the more I see this being the case. The vertical stem was a huge part of the offense last year. This year, the offense is much more horizontal and Carr has to be able to parse the layers of the defense as well as make more timing and anticipatory throws. Even the running game switched from an inside, straight upfield, style to a slide to sideline style (but that may have to do with Lynch's preference).

If true, this situation reminds me a bit when RGIII allegedly demanded a more pocket-centric offense from Shanahan when they has so much success the year before running the read option. I believe Carr is a much better team player and player in general than RGIII. I also believe the switch has more to do with Carr's comfort with Downing on a personal level than any beef with Musgrave, but the results are similar. I could also see the JDR wanting to evolve the offense because there is a defined formula for stopping the verticals passing game (just see KC in late 2016), but it's clear Carr's not totally comfortable in the current system.

I'm not sure what the best way forward is. Part of me wants to see Carr get better at Downing's style, but at the same time it's hard to go away with what worked.

[Baggabonez]

On 12/16/2017 at 5:02 AM, Rich7sena said:

The main issue I detect with Downing is he doesn't call the game according to Carr's strengths -- which is strange considering how close they reportedly are. In a vacuum, I probably like Downing's play sheet better than Musgrave, but Carr thrived in last year's simplified system. Carr seems most comfortable making easy reads but tough throws.

For example: four verticals was a staple in the Raiders offense last season. Carr could easily identify where the extra safety help went and made a play according to what he saw. There was a PFF metric last season saying Carr was among the top players in the league making "tough" throws.

This season, we're seeing more plays where the combination of routes get guys open rather than Carr's ability to make a throw. Carr simply doesn't see the field at an elite level, but he can make a throw at an elite level. Downing is trying to win with scheme and less with Carr's arm.

Imo, the HUNH offense disguises many of Carr's weaknesses and accentuates his strengths as the HUNH offense has many spread offense concepts. The fact that defenses can't change personnel based on down and distance keeps defenders off balance and makes the spread effective, whereas it usually wouldn't. Thereby, Carr gets in a rhythm, builds confidence, windows look wider and slower, heavy footed OTs are more effective as edge rushers wear down.

The Raiders choose to invest in the interior OL rather than the OTs, contrary to what most teams do. From what I have read is that the WASH game exposed the weakness of the offense is to attack the edges with speed. Carr needs to step up in the pocket and makes throws (not run). The way to slow down edge rushers is HUNH offense.

I really believe JDR wanted to take the air out of the ball, pound the rock with beastmode, control ToP and win with small ball and a "coached up" defense that plays with a lead, thereby securing his job. After what happened with Koetter and Lovie Smith It's not stretch to believe that given another season of prolific offense and "statistically" subpar defense the FO & fanbase would turn on JDR and want to promote Musgrave to ensure the offense remains.

Right or wrong I liked the JDR hire. However, I now see his intellectual limitations. I'm OK with whatever the FO decides to do with JDR. He's hanging on by a thread. JDR is just another weird "where was that offense the first 3 quarters?" quote away from being ousted. 

[Rich7sena]

23 minutes ago, Baggabonez said:

Imo, the HUNH offense disguises many of Carr's weaknesses and accentuates his strengths as the HUNH offense has many spread offense concepts. The fact that defenses can't change personnel based on down and distance keeps defenders off balance and makes the spread effective, whereas it usually wouldn't. Thereby, Carr gets in a rhythm, builds confidence, windows look wider and slower, heavy footed OTs are more effective as edge rushers wear down.

The Raiders choose to invest in the interior OL rather than the OTs, contrary to what most teams do. From what I have read is that the WASH game exposed the weakness of the offense is to attack the edges with speed. Carr needs to step up in the pocket and makes throws (not run). The way to slow down edge rushers is HUNH offense.

The positive effects of no huddle and hurry up are generally over-stated. It's more about picking spots to run no-huddle and hurry up, and less about frequency. According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, the Raiders are actually running far more no huddle offense than in 2016: 58 plays in all of 2016 vs. 79 plays with 3 games to go in 2017. 

I'd also dispute the claim about teams now attacking the OTs with speed. More specifically, teams always attack OTs with speed -- especially on passing downs and especially in the AFC West. The best way to neutralize a pass rush is by throwing the ball quickly, which is exactly what Carr has done over the past two seasons. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Derek Carr is second only to Blaine Gabbert in the "time to throw" metric which measures how quickly, on average, a quarterback gets rid of the ball. In 2016, Carr ranked 7th.

[Silver&Black88]

On 12/24/2017 at 6:05 PM, Rich7sena said:

The thing is, if not JDR then who? Who's the guy we're hitching our wagon to?

JDR, to me, is just above replacement level and shares the class with the vast majority on NFL head coaches -- including the ones who would possibly replace him. He's not like Jeff Fisher who was clearly stuck with the same playbook from 1999. Or Rex Ryan and Hue Jackson whose hubris wears thin quick. Unless they have a shot to sign a prodigy HC (like Jim Harbaugh), he's lost the locker room (which doesn't appear to be the case), or is causing the team to underperform in consecutive seasons, the team shouldn't budge for at least another season.

Teams that recycle head coaches don't tend to appreciate as much as we like to think. How much better are Texans after firing Gary Kubiak? Or the Lions after firing Jim Schwartz? Or the Colts after firing Jim Caldwell? I could go on. Point is there aren't very many Bill Belichicks out there.

@Rich7sena I'm bringing this convo back to this thread.

I thought about it some more and I basically agree with you but I don't agree with any of your examples.   Texans: BOB didn't have a QB and Rick Smith is an awful GM, ask Houston fans.  Doesn't help that Watt and Clowney have not been the healthiest.  They looked legit with Watson this year though.  The Lions hired Jim Caldwell.....enough said. The Colts are another bad example because of how they've failed at a GM level to protect their QB.  Indy goes as Luck goes.  Pagano isn't a great coach, I'll give you that, but they haven't had a shot without a healthy Luck, and he has not been healthy.

You're totally right that it's difficult to find a good HC and that its much easier to find a worse one.  I don't have many guys I can count on being available, but I'm hoping, if possible, for a Jay Gruden and Vic Fangio combo.  Either could work.  Maybe AZ doesn't bring back Arians.  Those are kind of head in the clouds choices though.  Darell Bevell has done an alright job being strapped with no OL, but he's kinda risky for me. At the same time he's worked under Pete Carroll for a while and has seen how to implement a winning culture.  I don't think Pat Shurmur is an inspiring choice, though he has done a good job this year.  Matt Nagy is another name that's floated around but I don't know if I trust his lack of experience considering he's a first year OC. Honestly, I think we need to wait and see who else will be available too.  Granted, most of those will be JDR retread types.

After re-evaluating:

Our defense has woken up since firing KNJ.  It has come on strong to finish the year the prior 2 seasons too though.  And that in and of itself is a bit of an indictment on JDR as a HC (waiting so long to fire KNJ).  As much as I hate to give the guy credit, Musgrave should have been retained.  Downing clearly was and is not ready for his position and with hindsight, TD was someone else's mistake to make.  That's another knock on Del Rio.  Clock management has been garbage throughout his tenure as well.  Penalties have been a thorn in our side too.  Our team has looked ill prepared most  weeks this year and I'm not sure where else to point.

If there aren't good options on the HC market though, I'd go after Koetter as you, and many others have suggested.  Seems like a good fit for our offense and has a good track record as an OC.  And retain Pagano as DC.  There is something to be said for continuity, I agree with your point there.  Its just that I don't know if I trust Del Rio's judgements going forward.

Essentially, we're stuck between a rock and a hard place right now in my opinion.  I'll stop watching if we hired Fisher though lol.

[Chali21]

44 minutes ago, Silver&Black88 said:

@Rich7sena I'm bringing this convo back to this thread.

I thought about it some more and I basically agree with you but I don't agree with any of your examples.   Texans: BOB didn't have a QB and Rick Smith is an awful GM, ask Houston fans.  Doesn't help that Watt and Clowney have not been the healthiest.  They looked legit with Watson this year though.  The Lions hired Jim Caldwell.....enough said. The Colts are another bad example because of how they've failed at a GM level to protect their QB.  Indy goes as Luck goes.  Pagano isn't a great coach, I'll give you that, but they haven't had a shot without a healthy Luck, and he has not been healthy.

You're totally right that it's difficult to find a good HC and that its much easier to find a worse one.  I don't have many guys I can count on being available, but I'm hoping, if possible, for a Jay Gruden and Vic Fangio combo.  Either could work.  Maybe AZ doesn't bring back Arians.  Those are kind of head in the clouds choices though.  Darell Bevell has done an alright job being strapped with no OL, but he's kinda risky for me. At the same time he's worked under Pete Carroll for a while and has seen how to implement a winning culture.  I don't think Pat Shurmur is an inspiring choice, though he has done a good job this year.  Matt Nagy is another name that's floated around but I don't know if I trust his lack of experience considering he's a first year OC. Honestly, I think we need to wait and see who else will be available too.  Granted, most of those will be JDR retread types.

After re-evaluating:

Our defense has woken up since firing KNJ.  It has come on strong to finish the year the prior 2 seasons too though.  And that in and of itself is a bit of an indictment on JDR as a HC (waiting so long to fire KNJ).  As much as I hate to give the guy credit, Musgrave should have been retained.  Downing clearly was and is not ready for his position and with hindsight, TD was someone else's mistake to make.  That's another knock on Del Rio.  Clock management has been garbage throughout his tenure as well.  Penalties have been a thorn in our side too.  Our team has looked ill prepared most  weeks this year and I'm not sure where else to point.

If there aren't good options on the HC market though, I'd go after Koetter as you, and many others have suggested.  Seems like a good fit for our offense and has a good track record as an OC.  And retain Pagano as DC.  There is something to be said for continuity, I agree with your point there.  Its just that I don't know if I trust Del Rio's judgements going forward.

Essentially, we're stuck between a rock and a hard place right now in my opinion.  I'll stop watching if we hired Fisher though lol.

I agree with all of this. Change is needed, unfortunately though there’s too many unknowns. I guess the raiders will have to see what 2018 holds. 

[oakdb36]

JDR has been a HC for 12 years. He has a 500 record and 1 playoff win. We can keep him if we're worried the next HC might be worse but it's very unlikely JDR ever leads any team to a SB win. So what are we aiming for?

[NJ Raider]

I was shocked that we kept that game close but not surprised by how we gave it away. So many missed opportunities in our last two close games.

Look, Carr has been bad but it’s not like anyone else has been great either. Every third down they got pressure with a four man rush because we kept lining up in five wide. Remember when musgrave used max protect? Downing just kept doing it over and over again when it wasn’t even working. Then in the rare case he called playaction, the routes weren’t even that deep. Either downing is trying to get him to be something is not or the back injury is limiting his arm strength. He can deny it all he wants but with the exception of the kc game, and maybe Miami, he does not look the same throwing the ball.

I was reading that Carr was pressured on 15 of 29 drop backs. Part of what makes Rodgers and Wilson so good at avoiding pressure is that they focus on it in practice. Green Bay’s scramble drill is like second nature. I even heard analysts talking about DeFillipo spending tons of time with the qbs on evading pressure with the Philly qbs. Not saying he should be hired just for that, but it would be nice to have somebody that works on it.  

We have a young qb with underrated mobility. Not saying he is Mike Vick, but getting him moving more would be better than making him a statue. I know he has been running more lately but that is more out of necessity than by design. He is shaky throwing on the run but do they really work on it? I have no idea what this team does in practice but clearly it isn’t working.

This team has poor fundamentals, looks lost with their assignments, poor discipline, and looks nothing like last year’s team from an intensity standpoint. Jdr should be fired but time will tell. Think if he doesn’t, money is the reason. I feel like he is a goner but if for some reason Downing is brought back, I’m going to have a hard time being optimistic.

 

[SBXISBXVSBXVIII]

Del Rio and Downing need to go. Pagano deserves to stay, but will he?

[RaidersAreOne]

I for one hope Pagano stays. The sheer contrast of our Defensive performances from KNJ to now is incredible. I read that our D has been a top 10 unit since he took over. He deserves to stay and has our D playing at an above average level. 

JDR and everyone else though, beat it.

[Rolni]

Give me one of the young offensive guys to build up a new offensive staff and keep Pagano to run the D.

 

[NJ Raider]

I agree with that Rolni. Pagano has done a great job with that defense with the exception of the kc game. If we bring in Matt Nagy, it would give us an advantage against kc in the future since he helped get that offense back on track. Somebody said it a couple of weeks ago but imagine if we kept musgrave and had Pagano run the d from the beginning? Oh well coulda woulda shoulda. But back to the point, I would be good with Nagy, Flip, Bevell, or Cooter. Any other young offensive minds I’m not mentioning? Don’t see McDaniels as a realistic possibility.

[big_palooka]

I'm not going to get caught up in heaping praise on  Pagano. There was no place to go but up with the defense. He was an average DC for the Chargers for years. Andy Reid has run circles around his defenses dating back to his time there. 

Fact is. In the AFC West right now, Andy Reid and his staff are miles ahead of the others. There isn't another coach in the division who can compete with Andy. They are going to continue winning the West until another team can out coach them. And it's a massive gap in that regard. 

So give me an entire new approach. New HC, pick his staff and try to narrow that gap.

[Silver&Black88]

1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

I'm not going to get caught up in heaping praise on  Pagano. There was no place to go but up with the defense. He was an average DC for the Chargers for years. Andy Reid has run circles around his defenses dating back to his time there. 

Fact is. In the AFC West right now, Andy Reid and his staff are miles ahead of the others. There isn't another coach in the division who can compete with Andy. They are going to continue winning the West until another team can out coach them. And it's a massive gap in that regard. 

So give me an entire new approach. New HC, pick his staff and try to narrow that gap.

I'll take average as an improvement.  Don't forget that we get Conley and Obi (I know you don't like him) back next year.  We'll take our lumps with them for certain but we'll probably also add a guy or 2 in the draft (Vea pls).  Our defense has swarmed the ball much better the past few weeks and has looked opportunistic as they did last year.  I don't like the 'nowhere to go but up' logic.  If we get stuck with another year of Del Rio, might as well stick with a DC who can at least be serviceable underneath him.