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Random Bears Thoughts - Offseason Thread


Ty21

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I think everyone knows this is the take on Claypool…what is interesting about it is the best he played by far for us last season was when he was angry against the Lions…if we go out and trade for a guy like Hopkins who can teach him how to harness that emotion and play like that every week then he will get the ball and we will see the best out of a receiver who is still young and with more maturity would be a really good piece of the puzzle.

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1 minute ago, Madmike90 said:

I think everyone knows this is the take on Claypool…what is interesting about it is the best he played by far for us last season was when he was angry against the Lions…if we go out and trade for a guy like Hopkins who can teach him how to harness that emotion and play like that every week then he will get the ball and we will see the best out of a receiver who is still young and with more maturity would be a really good piece of the puzzle.

He should have contract breakdowns for the top 10 WRs as a wallpaper in his locker. 

 

Name tag says "Broke *****"

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https://www.dabearsblog.com/2023/zooming-in-on-chicagos-edge-rushers

  • All three edge rushers see their productivity significantly decrease after the Bears traded Quinn away. This shows the value that having a respected threat like Quinn has to a defense overall. Even though Quinn wasn’t doing much to bother the quarterback himself last year, the attention he drew from opposing offenses freed up others to get after the quarterback more effectively.
    • This also shows a pretty clear limitation on just looking at production stats, since they say nothing about the difficulty of the assignment a player faced. A pressure counts as a pressure regardless of whether you are single teamed against a TE, facing the opponent’s best blocker, or drawing a double team. It’s a good reminder that data alone should never be the sole method of evaluation, and why it is always good to try and look at as much data around a topic as you can to paint as complete a picture as possible.
  • Trevis Gipson saw the most significant drop-off in production. When Quinn was around, Gipson was a significantly above-average pass rusher, but he fell off a cliff after the trade. I don’t have access to data on double team rates, but my friends who watch film say that they noticed he was double teamed significantly more often after Quinn was traded away, since he was now the pass rusher opposing offenses worried about the most.
  • Al-Quadin Muhammad also saw the post-Quinn drop-off, but his pre-Quinn production was already well below average, which matches every other season of his career. He’s not a good defensive end, which is why the Bears cut him to save $4M last weekend.
  • Bears fans (me included) were all thrilled when Dominique Robinson had a hand in two sacks in his NFL debut last fall, but he was legitimately one of the worst defensive ends in the NFL both before and after the Quinn trade. In his defense, he was a rookie, and he was always viewed as a project due to his position switch in college. Perhaps he can develop into something, but for now the Bears can’t count on him to be anything more than a fourth defensive end who plays limited snaps.
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This also shows a pretty clear limitation on just looking at production stats, since they say nothing about the difficulty of the assignment a player faced. A pressure counts as a pressure regardless of whether you are single teamed against a TE, facing the opponent’s best blocker, or drawing a double team. It’s a good reminder that data alone should never be the sole method of evaluation, and why it is always good to try and look at as much data around a topic as you can to paint as complete a picture as possible.

I think these are excellent points. 

But conclusion should not be need more data, but rather for a proper evaluation you have to actually watch just the player for full games.  There is no avoiding it entirely no matter what metrics you want to use.   You have to know the context of situation.  Who is on his team?  Who is he going against?  What is he being asked to do?  Is he hurt?  

Football is a team game.  There is a chain reaction.  Some players are force multipliers because of reaction they cause to other side.  

 Take away Quinn and rest of DL gets worse.   Take away pass rush and DBs get worse.   Take away good big bodies inside and LBs get worse.  

Going off grades or stats alone can lead you to bad conclusions on worth and value of a player.

 

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So today my boy crashed his bike on the way to school. He left early and then as I was taking the girls we started to pass him as he was pushing his bike with one hand. Kid was a mess and limping. He wasn't sure exactly what caught him up but something made him hit the pavement hard.

Stopped and checked on him, he clearly broke his wrist. He thought it was a bad sprain and asked if we could just wrap it so he wouldn't have to miss the game. Threw the bike in the back, took the girls to school and he is now the proud owned of yet another splint and sling. Then was told he was out of PE and all sports 4-8 weeks since it is going to be up to the ortho.

He went to watch the team play and they ended up losing by 5. Ended the first quarter 19-4, so he was really beating himself up for the loss. Sucky day.

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