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Who will be picking first overall in 2024?


notthatbluestuff

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2 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

      Yes and no, but mostly no.

      Carolina finished 2022 slightly better than the Bears both individually (i.e. aggregate personal rankings, 31st to 32nd) and as a unit on the field (DVOAs, 28th to 30th).  That was months ago, though.

      Flash forward to now.  Factor in free agency with Chicago's seven free agent starters, compared to Carolina losing their only remaining offensive threat, along with Chicago's humongous lead in draft capital, and the Bears should be half a league better than the Panthers.

I think Carolina has spent better in free agency than Chicago has. I like Chark, Hurst and Sanders for them. I also like their coaching hires. Carolina gave them a few picks, but I don't think they are further along by any means. 

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On 3/24/2023 at 4:26 PM, Louis Friend said:

I think Carolina has spent better in free agency than Chicago has.

     People don't seem to appreciate how spectacular Chicago's free agency choices have been.  Not counting backup QBs, the Bears have accumulated seven free agents who are ranked top 32 at their positions, including two top 6 LBs.  Carolina has two top 32s:  a below average (19th) Center and a marginal TE1 (29th).  (Coaching is an issue for both teams.)

      To put this in perspective, the Panthers had two top 32 skill players last year.  Both of them are Bears now.  Oh, and after all of this Chicago is still #1 in cap space.

Edited by Dr A W Niloc
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16 hours ago, DirtyDez said:

Cards are losing DeAndre Hopkins, Rodney Hudson, Zach Allen, Byron Murphy and likely Kyler Murray from last year’s 4-win team and didn’t sign a QB upgrade from Colt McCoy or David Blough.

But they signed Dennis Daley...he offsets all the negatives 

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Bold prediction is Rams will trade up to 1st overall and take Caleb Williams and move on from Stafford. 
 

Theory is the Rams will finally have their 1st round picks plus they are stockpiling picks via trades and letting their players walk and signing with other teams thus comp picks. The Rams should have a minimum $60 mil in cap space to go fix the defense and OL in FA. I hope they bring back OBJ this year on a 2yr deal. So then they go aggressive after Williams with an improved defense led by AD, weapons on offense with Kupp and OBJ and an improved OL with either Akers being back playing great or another young back that fits McVay system. That will set Williams in great position to succeed to the highest level immediately like Mahomes was in KC. 

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If Caleb Williams continues to be as hyped as he is now, I can't see any team that's bad enough to draft #1 overall being confident enough in their QB situation to pass up on him, unless it's because their franchise QB was out for the year. Even then I'd probably just draft Williams unless I'm one of the teams that drafts a QB this year, Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, Eagles, Jaguars, or Chargers, or someone makes me an offer I can't refuse

Edited by jonnguy2015
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35 minutes ago, jonnguy2015 said:

If Caleb Williams continues to be as hyped as he is now, I can't see any team that's bad enough to draft #1 overall being confident enough in their QB situation to pass up on him, unless it's because their franchise QB was out for the year. Even then I'd probably just draft Williams unless I'm one of the teams that drafts a QB this year, Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, Eagles, Jaguars, or Chargers, or someone makes me an offer I can't refuse

Exactly… unless the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals get the #1 pick, this “trade up for Caleb” stuff is absolutely hilarious. Whoever has the #1 pick is drafting Caleb, it’s that simple. Including the Chargers and Eagles. 

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On 3/24/2023 at 7:10 PM, SteelKing728 said:

Without Rodgers/Rodgers Retirement:

1. Jets

2. Rams

3. Cardinals

4. Packers

5. Commander

 

We won 8 games with Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke facing one of the leagues toughest SOS. Unless something crazy happens we have very little chance of picking first. The defense is just far too good. 

Edited by lavar703
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On 3/24/2023 at 2:47 PM, Dr A W Niloc said:

If it is Chicago's own pick  then, yes, most certainly, Caleb is coming.

It is far more likely to be Carolina's pick  the Bears would be using at #1,  though.  (I would take Caleb Williams anyway, but it's no longer crystal clear--especially if Justin has played rather well.)

 

How is it "far more likely" for the Panthers to have the worst record than Chicago?  Bears are coming off a 3-win season and will have the same HC and QB.  Panthers are coming off a 7-win season and upgraded the entire coaching staff and I don't think it will be hard for Young or Stroud to be better than the 3 QBs we were rotating between last year.

Sure, Panthers could have the worst record.  But I'm not seeing how they have a much greater chance of it than the team that literally earned the #1 pick this upcoming draft.

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17 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

How is it "far more likely" for the Panthers to have the worst record than Chicago?

     Neither team rates to be anything like their 2022 incarnation.  To wit (and with apologies for repeating myself from other threads):

a) Not counting backup QBs, Chicago has added seven free agents who are top 32 at their position;

b) not counting backup QBs, Carolina has added two top 32 free agents:  a below average Center and a marginal TE1;

c) Carolina had two offensive threats last year, both of whom are Bears now;

d) the Panthers offense will amount to a rookie QB with no top 40 WRs (or opportunities to draft one early before 2025) and mediocre protection;

e) Chicago had more draft capital than the Panthers even before Carolina handed them a cornucopia; and,

f)  despite their phenomenal success in free agency the Bears are still #1 in cap space ($38,764,675), Carolina a distant second ($29,197,657).

       Neither franchise has a Coach of the Year candidate at the helm.  The Panthers are tanking for the next two years.  Chicago won't be great yet but we shouldn't confuse the good with the Guderian.

 

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On 3/24/2023 at 9:19 AM, Dr A W Niloc said:

Panthers (who will never be favored in 2023 and for whom the Bears will be doing the picking), Titans, then Cardinals.

Lucky for the Bears to be able to trade down from the #1 overall pick in back to back drafts. 

Edited by Nick_gb
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7 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

     Neither team rates to be anything like their 2022 incarnation.  To wit (and with apologies for repeating myself from other threads):

a) Not counting backup QBs, Chicago has added seven free agents who are top 32 at their position;

b) not counting backup QBs, Carolina has added two top 32 free agents:  a below average Center and a marginal TE1;

c) Carolina had two offensive threats last year, both of whom are Bears now;

d) the Panthers offense will amount to a rookie QB with no top 40 WRs (or opportunities to draft one early before 2025) and mediocre protection;

e) Chicago had more draft capital than the Panthers even before Carolina handed them a cornucopia; and,

f)  despite their phenomenal success in free agency the Bears are still #1 in cap space ($38,764,675), Carolina a distant second ($29,197,657).

       Neither franchise has a Coach of the Year candidate at the helm.  The Panthers are tanking for the next two years.  Chicago won't be great yet but we shouldn't confuse the good with the Guderian.

 

But again, the Bears just literally earned the #1 pick. To suggest that any team has far more of a chance to get it than them seems like a stretch. 
 

How many examples are there of a HC/QB duo who got the #1 pick end up turning it around? 

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