2023-24,53-man roster for the Packers, and other predictions.

[AlexGreen#20]

1 hour ago, craig said:

I'm no expert on OL play.  1.  Most Packer guards had played tackle in college.  2.  MM taught play-your-best-5.  This often involved shuffling tackles to guard, and sometimes guards to tackles as injuries were dealt. 

So in past, I've kinda been naively trained that the requisites for guard versus tackle are different but not that much.Tackles require more than guards, in terms of footwork and quickness.  Thus guys not quite good enough to play tackle can be good enough to play guard.  Not all good guards would succeed if switched to tackle.  But, my sense was that anybody who IS good enough to play tackle well, should have the physical capacity to play guard well, given some training.  Is that faulty?  Basically *IF* you have a surplus of good tackles, you can always slide one to guard.  [Kinda like in baseball, I assume any SS has the tools to switch to 2B or 3B, once he gains enough experience at the new position.]  As I wrong and naive to assume any good tackle can learn to play good guard?  

Alex obviously argued against my simplified view, in saying that Bakhti had T/C potential, but lacked the capacity for guard.  

Vegas, are you saying that Walker does NOT have the scope to play a good guard?  He's fit for tackle, but NOT fit for guard?  Or are you more just saying that he's fit for tackle, so it would be a waste of his talents to use him at guard?  

It's about the sum of the parts. Using your baseball analogy, I've got to go back to Little League. 

Shortstops generally have better range and better hand eye coordination than 3rd basemen. But they might not be as good as a standard third basemen (at playing third base)in the field because they lack the arm strength to get the ball consistently accurately across the diamond. 

In football, drive skills are that arm strength, and to a lesser extent the functional anchor. Their foot speed is the baseball equivalent of range and hand eye coordination. 

Most Tackles in college are better run blockers and pass blockers than college Guards. They're just a higher caliber of athlete. 

So when they get to the pros, most Tackles have the arm strength (drive skills) to play 3rd or SS. What they lack is the pass blocking athleticism. 

Bakhtiari is the exception. He is the breed of Shortstops who lack the arm strength to play 3rd base. Zach Tom is another of that breed. They're light athletes who struggle to generate movement but that move very well themselves. 

Those guys aren't generally looked at as Guards as their fall back spots. They're looked at as Centers where the pass blocking skills and movement still play (although not as highly valued) and that the drive skills aren't a killer. 

Now there are guys like that who do end up at Guard. Runyan Jr isn't quite that, but he's close. If his driver skills were even average, he'd be loved instead of the team drafting his potential replacement every year. 

[craig]

Thanks, Alex and Vegas, for your thoughts.  Alex, I agree with notion that Tom and Bakhti are both the exceptions, tackles with movement skills to play tackle, but too weak for guard.  I'm thinking that "exception" is the word, though; most tackles do have enough power to move inside to guard.  So the default will normally be that a guy with the size and movement skills (and power) to play good tackle should usually be assumed to have the capacity for guard.  (Once he gets used to it.). [In baseball, SS > 2B/3B on the defensive spectrum; CF > RF > LF on the defensive spectrum.  Usually anybody can move down the spectrum, but some CF lack the arm to thrive in RF]. I view T > G on the O-line spectrum, with only a few exceptions.

For Bakhti, his lack of drive/power is why he's never been too hot in run, and he's never helped in short-yardage run game.  I expect this will be a problem for Tom.  As you mention, it's already a limit for Runyan.  

My guess is that Nijman is another exception.  He's OK at tackle, but I don't think he'd thrive at guard at all.  

32 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

...Can a good tackle become a good guard?  Probably.  But why waste tackle talent at the guard position.  I've thought that way about Quentin Nelson since he was drafted.  Tackle is more important.  Think of Robert Gallery.  More or less a bust at LT.  Became a good or serviceable guard.  And according to Wiki, left guard.  Less of a power guard.  

Walker.  I see feet, I see athleticism, I see the frame.  It all screams tackle to me.  If he were 3 inches shorter,  at his same weight, with feet that weren't as quick?  Guard.  

Vegas, so just to clarify:  you're not saying that Walker lacks the tools to perhaps someday develop into a capable starting NFL guard.  You're just arguing that he's perhaps too good for that, and doing so would be wasting his talent?  Heh heh, it's kinda different to say "not capable of guard" versus "too great for guard".   

Vegas:  Why waste tackle talent at guard?  Maybe because you've got two good tackles already?  Walker is behind Bakhti, Tom, and also Nijman at T.  He's not going to play any tackle this season unless volume of guys get hurt.  (A possibility.).   

Or, maybe if you hypothetically end up with a problem at guard?   Suppose a guard gets hurt.  If Walker has tackle-talent, might he perhaps be preferred alternative to Newman, Hanson, or Rhyan?   

Note: I realize that guard takes practice and training.  Even if Walker does hypothetically have T/G talent, that doesn't mean he's got the experience to succeed in a new position today.  

 

[AlexGreen#20]

4 hours ago, craig said:

Thanks, Alex and Vegas, for your thoughts.  Alex, I agree with notion that Tom and Bakhti are both the exceptions, tackles with movement skills to play tackle, but too weak for guard.  I'm thinking that "exception" is the word, though; most tackles do have enough power to move inside to guard.  So the default will normally be that a guy with the size and movement skills (and power) to play good tackle should usually be assumed to have the capacity for guard.  (Once he gets used to it.). [In baseball, SS > 2B/3B on the defensive spectrum; CF > RF > LF on the defensive spectrum.  Usually anybody can move down the spectrum, but some CF lack the arm to thrive in RF]. I view T > G on the O-line spectrum, with only a few exceptions.

For Bakhti, his lack of drive/power is why he's never been too hot in run, and he's never helped in short-yardage run game.  I expect this will be a problem for Tom.  As you mention, it's already a limit for Runyan.  

My guess is that Nijman is another exception.  He's OK at tackle, but I don't think he'd thrive at guard at all.  

Vegas, so just to clarify:  you're not saying that Walker lacks the tools to perhaps someday develop into a capable starting NFL guard.  You're just arguing that he's perhaps too good for that, and doing so would be wasting his talent?  Heh heh, it's kinda different to say "not capable of guard" versus "too great for guard".   

Vegas:  Why waste tackle talent at guard?  Maybe because you've got two good tackles already?  Walker is behind Bakhti, Tom, and also Nijman at T.  He's not going to play any tackle this season unless volume of guys get hurt.  (A possibility.).   

Or, maybe if you hypothetically end up with a problem at guard?   Suppose a guard gets hurt.  If Walker has tackle-talent, might he perhaps be preferred alternative to Newman, Hanson, or Rhyan?   

Note: I realize that guard takes practice and training.  Even if Walker does hypothetically have T/G talent, that doesn't mean he's got the experience to succeed in a new position today.  

 

I legit have no idea how Nijman would function at Guard. He's got the brute strength for it. But his technique and leverage problems would be exacerbated even more there. 

I just don't think Walker has the skills to hang in the NFL. 

[Uffdaswede]

Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Tom, Runyan, Nijman…

or

Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Meyers, Tom, Nijman…

or

Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Meyers, Runyan, Tom…

[Old Guy]

7 minutes ago, Uffdaswede said:

Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Tom, Runyan, Nijman…

or

Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Meyers, Tom, Nijman…

or

Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Meyers, Runyan, Tom…

I think Tom is one of your starting tackles. I also fear Bak is going to be a sometimes player so do you put Tom at RT and leave him there. When Bak is out put Nijman in at LT so Tom can focus on one position and so can Nijman? 

I think the interior is Jenkins - Myers - Runyan.

[Refugee]

41 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

I think Tom is one of your starting tackles. I also fear Bak is going to be a sometimes player so do you put Tom at RT and leave him there. When Bak is out put Nijman in at LT so Tom can focus on one position and so can Nijman? 

I think the interior is Jenkins - Myers - Runyan.

I think it will be 69 74 71 76 50. 73 is swing tackle back up G situation is less clear but probably 70 is first off the bench. It is clear 69 will get the vet treatment in practice, but I can’t see a situation where you make your startling LT that is paid substantially more than anyone else on the roster a healthy scratch. If he’s healthy, he plays. 

[vegas492]

15 hours ago, craig said:

Thanks, Alex and Vegas, for your thoughts.  Alex, I agree with notion that Tom and Bakhti are both the exceptions, tackles with movement skills to play tackle, but too weak for guard.  I'm thinking that "exception" is the word, though; most tackles do have enough power to move inside to guard.  So the default will normally be that a guy with the size and movement skills (and power) to play good tackle should usually be assumed to have the capacity for guard.  (Once he gets used to it.). [In baseball, SS > 2B/3B on the defensive spectrum; CF > RF > LF on the defensive spectrum.  Usually anybody can move down the spectrum, but some CF lack the arm to thrive in RF]. I view T > G on the O-line spectrum, with only a few exceptions.

For Bakhti, his lack of drive/power is why he's never been too hot in run, and he's never helped in short-yardage run game.  I expect this will be a problem for Tom.  As you mention, it's already a limit for Runyan.  

My guess is that Nijman is another exception.  He's OK at tackle, but I don't think he'd thrive at guard at all.  

Vegas, so just to clarify:  you're not saying that Walker lacks the tools to perhaps someday develop into a capable starting NFL guard.  You're just arguing that he's perhaps too good for that, and doing so would be wasting his talent?  Heh heh, it's kinda different to say "not capable of guard" versus "too great for guard".   

Vegas:  Why waste tackle talent at guard?  Maybe because you've got two good tackles already?  Walker is behind Bakhti, Tom, and also Nijman at T.  He's not going to play any tackle this season unless volume of guys get hurt.  (A possibility.).   

Or, maybe if you hypothetically end up with a problem at guard?   Suppose a guard gets hurt.  If Walker has tackle-talent, might he perhaps be preferred alternative to Newman, Hanson, or Rhyan?   

Note: I realize that guard takes practice and training.  Even if Walker does hypothetically have T/G talent, that doesn't mean he's got the experience to succeed in a new position today.  

 

Walker's frame fits tackle.  He's tall.  He's chisled.  Guards are typically shortier and built more like a school bus.  The exception that we've had is Mike Wahle who just didn't have the feet for tackle and he didn't have the ability to mirror.  We tried tackle first, because he looked the part.  He failed, then fell into a great career inside.

I don't think Walker would project well at guard.  Leverage would work against him.  He would need to overcome that.  I also haven't seen him show the run drive skills that are a necessity at guard.  Which is why I see him more as a LT.

So again, he's an athlete with an ideal frame and very good feet.  Why in the world would we flip that inside to a guard?  We have Jenkins and we have JRJ.  One is elite as a guard, one is more of an average to above average guard.  Rhyan is the guy that just looks the part of a dominating guard. 

This talk about Tom and Bakh being "exceptions"?  Meh.  Bakh had tackle feet and just enough size coming out.  But those feet were special right away.  What he needed was power in the legs and power in the chest.  Took him till year 3 to get those, then he took off.  Tom is very similar.  The feet are there.  I'd argue that the brain is there.  He needed a power base.  And from looking at him now, those legs look bigger.  And Nijman's RAS score showed just how athletic he is.  It was the technique that needed (and may still need) work. 

I like living in the world where we are two starting tackles and two very capable backups.  And the backups are on rookie deals.

[craig]

36 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

I think Tom is one of your starting tackles. I also fear Bak is going to be a sometimes player so do you put Tom at RT and leave him there. When Bak is out put Nijman in at LT so Tom can focus on one position and so can Nijman? 

I think the interior is Jenkins - Myers - Runyan.

I agree, I'd just put Tom in at RT and not overcomplicate this.  Nijman as backup for both tackles.  Live with Myers and Runyan, let them do the best they can, accept them as they are.  

I definitely do NOT want the Tom-as-guard line.  Not where his talents are best used.  Seems the Packers don't practice him there much, either, so I don't think that's really on the table.

The idea of Tom replacing Myers at center with Nijman replacing Tom at RT, I get the interest.  That might hypothetically be a pretty good line.  But, I'd not choose that.

• Long-term Tom might be good at center, but he's not really played it that much since early in college.  Short-term, he might not upgrade center much? 
• I'm not Yosh's hugest fan as a tackle.  I hope Tom will be better, and think Nijman is best valued as depth.
• If you start both Tom and Nijman, then I think your depth setup is compromised.  I know, MLF and Packers are believers in shuffling everybody around.  But I'm kinda in favor of trying to limit the shuffle.  Kinda thinking that if Bakh needs two weeks off, then you'd be shuffling Nijman RT to LT; Tom C to RT; Myers in at C. I think I'd rather keep four of the starters playing their same spots if possible, in case of an injury.  

So I vote Tom for RT, Myers for C.  

 

[vegas492]

50 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

I think Tom is one of your starting tackles. I also fear Bak is going to be a sometimes player so do you put Tom at RT and leave him there. When Bak is out put Nijman in at LT so Tom can focus on one position and so can Nijman? 

I think the interior is Jenkins - Myers - Runyan.

I think that Tom is probably a tick better than Nijman at RT.

Tom is much better than Nijman at LT.

I feel like Tom's best position is LT.

If Bakh goes down, I'm putting him there instantly and putting Nijman in at RT.

Interior?  For me, I'm going with Rhyan as first guard in.  JRJ backs up Myers.  Newman is the issue.  If a decent guard (who has started in the league) becomes available via cuts, I'd think long and hard about cutting Newman for a guy like that.  

[craig]

21 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

...Interior?  For me, I'm going with Rhyan as first guard in.  ....  

Rhyan is key.  Yes, he's got a guard's physique and you'd think a 3rd-rounder should be good enough to next-man-up.  *IF* he's solid and ready for that, that would be great.  Let Rhyan cover the guards, let Nijman cover the tackles, and you're nicely set.  

But physique and draft status don't necessarily make a good player.  Man, I'm sure hoping he steps up and looks ready, that would stabilize a lot.  

[craig]

Newman was underpowered as a rookie, and his recognition was lacking, but his feet were excellent.  Seems two years of trying to add weight have done him harm, not good.  The Spriggs effect.  D+D, you never know.  Some guys get smarter, some don't.  Some guys optimize their bodies for their positions, Newman's attempts to get bigger have made him worse, and cost him the agility that was his primary asset.  

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, craig said:

Rhyan is key.  Yes, he's got a guard's physique and you'd think a 3rd-rounder should be good enough to next-man-up.  *IF* he's solid and ready for that, that would be great.  Let Rhyan cover the guards, let Nijman cover the tackles, and you're nicely set.  

But physique and draft status don't necessarily make a good player.  Man, I'm sure hoping he steps up and looks ready, that would stabilize a lot.  

It takes some guys a while to be NFL ready.  Took Wahle a few years.  Marco Rivera took a year or two.  Took Lang a few years.  It isn't uncommon at all.

I had hopes that Rhyan would be ready right away, but those hopes were quickly dashed.  My hope now would be that he's ready to be the first backup in this year and a starter next year.

As guard #4, I guess Newman is fine.  But I would really love it if we scoured the waiver wire and found someone more consistent to put into that role.  

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, craig said:

Newman was underpowered as a rookie, and his recognition was lacking, but his feet were excellent.  Seems two years of trying to add weight have done him harm, not good.  The Spriggs effect.  D+D, you never know.  Some guys get smarter, some don't.  Some guys optimize their bodies for their positions, Newman's attempts to get bigger have made him worse, and cost him the agility that was his primary asset.  

I've not noticed him getting more weight on him, or power.  He's still getting rolled with the best of them.  And it appears like he's still not picking up stunts and twists.  I don't know about him.  Again, I'd try to upgrade him, but also, he's cheap and he's started games.  If he's Guard4, I guess that is probably just fine.  If he's Guard3, then we have issues.

[Brat&Beer]

Just one cutdown day this year which is August 29, but things will happen before then. Will Gute cut anyone before the game this Saturday to avoid risk of injury and having to pay for IR? Or is it too early?

[Old Guy]

2 hours ago, Refugee said:

I think it will be 69 74 71 76 50. 73 is swing tackle back up G situation is less clear but probably 70 is first off the bench. It is clear 69 will get the vet treatment in practice, but I can’t see a situation where you make your startling LT that is paid substantially more than anyone else on the roster a healthy scratch. If he’s healthy, he plays. 

I think 70 is likely the first one off the team tbh. He's been terrible and getting run over routinely. The first one off the bench might be a waiver claim. I'm not opposed to Dalton Risner, who I believe is still on the street and available. 

I agree with the rest of it though.