2023-24,53-man roster for the Packers, and other predictions.

[Refugee]

2 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

I think 70 is likely the first one off the team tbh. He's been terrible and getting run over routinely. The first one off the bench might be a waiver claim. I'm not opposed to Dalton Risner, who I believe is still on the street and available. 

I agree with the rest of it though. 

We’ll see about Royce.  Reports are that he’s having a bad camp but we don’t have the full picture. He’s got real game snaps that have been a mixed bag but definitely some good with the bad. The staff will make their evaluation on the whole body of work and anyone we bring in will have a learning curve. I’m always game for an upgrade, even at depth positions. I just saw today was his birthday so he’s probably sweating it out. 

[Brat&Beer]

I just can't see Newman making it. We know who the top 6 are. I think Rhyan, Walker and Jones are all ahead of him. Hanson because of his experience at C might even be ahead of him. The only question is whether Newman, due to having been a starter, might have some small trade value with a team really weak at G. 

[R T]

3 hours ago, Uffdaswede said:

Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Tom, Runyan, Nijman…

or

Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Meyers, Tom, Nijman…

or

Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Meyers, Runyan, Tom…

Nijman, Jenkins, Myers, Runyan, Tom

[Brat&Beer]

3 minutes ago, R T said:

Nijman, Jenkins, Myers, Runyan, Tom

After the trading deadline. 

[craig]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

I've not noticed him getting more weight on him, or power.  He's still getting rolled with the best of them.  And it appears like he's still not picking up stunts and twists.  I don't know about him.  Again, I'd try to upgrade him, but also, he's cheap and he's started games.  If he's Guard4, I guess that is probably just fine.  If he's Guard3, then we have issues.

I recall last year camp Rodgers making a comment about how much weight Newman had added, that now he looked more like an OL.  I thought perhaps the inference might have been that it was more beer-belly than productive muscle.  I think guys often eat and drink more to add weight, but it doesn't always mean they are adding power.  And sometimes the extra pounds make them slower, and disrupt flexibility and pad-level leverage.  

Edited August 17, 2023 by craig

[craig]

33 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Walker's frame fits tackle.  He's tall.  He's chisled.  Guards are typically shortier and built more like a school bus.  ....

I don't think Walker would project well at guard.  Leverage would work against him.  He would need to overcome that.  I also haven't seen him show the run drive skills that are a necessity at guard.  Which is why I see him more as a LT...

I like living in the world where we are two starting tackles and two very capable backups.  And the backups are on rookie deals.

Thanks.  So your view is that tackle and guard are very different roles; lots of tackles can't transition to guard.  Not like my any-good big-league-SS-can-transition-to-2B/3B analogy.  Most NFL guards were previously tackles, but they were always NFL-guard-bodies even in college.   

So, you see Walker as a tackle-only.  Too tall, too weak, too many pad-level problems for guard.  Alex's view is that Walker may not have NFL-level tackle skills/technique.  Neither envisions guard as a place where he might become a decent starter or good backup, in the hypothetical that he doesn't make a career at tackle.  Too bad. 

Caleb Jones, Tenuta, Telfort:  Vegas, do you think all of these tall depth tackles in camp are too tall to have a shot at guard-useful?  Tackle-or-nothing guys, like Walker?  Or might a monster like Jones, even with his height, potentially have the power to someday play effective guard?  Or is his anchor and his leverage just too high, and it's tackle-or-bust for him?  

[Zycho32]

14 minutes ago, craig said:

Thanks.  So your view is that tackle and guard are very different roles; lots of tackles can't transition to guard.  Not like my any-good big-league-SS-can-transition-to-2B/3B analogy.  Most NFL guards were previously tackles, but they were always NFL-guard-bodies even in college.   

So, you see Walker as a tackle-only.  Too tall, too weak, too many pad-level problems for guard.  Alex's view is that Walker may not have NFL-level tackle skills/technique.  Neither envisions guard as a place where he might become a decent starter or good backup, in the hypothetical that he doesn't make a career at tackle.  Too bad. 

Caleb Jones, Tenuta, Telfort:  Vegas, do you think all of these tall depth tackles in camp are too tall to have a shot at guard-useful?  Tackle-or-nothing guys, like Walker?  Or might a monster like Jones, even with his height, potentially have the power to someday play effective guard?  Or is his anchor and his leverage just too high, and it's tackle-or-bust for him?  

Not the man you asked, but anchor/leverage become even more important on the interior because that's where the beefier IDL reside. There have been tall-ish guards(if you consider 6'4 or 6'5 tall in this equation), but those guys were ultimately capable of playing 'lower' on the line and therefore could protect the interior from the inside rush, but those are extreme examples; anyone taller than that is never going to be able to crouch low enough to engage somebody smaller enough and still have effective mobility(which matters more than you think for interior pocket protection).

The other unseen detriment to having such tall guys on the interior line is because at a certain point even when crouching they are too high for the QB to see over. This is usually only a problem with someone along the lines of a Bryce Young or a Kyler Murray or even an old school Doug Flutie, but only the cement-legged dinosaurs of a bygone age will have the height to potentially see over a guard or center that is around 6'7 or taller, which takes away the middle of the field in the passing attack.

 

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, craig said:

I recall last year camp Rodgers making a comment about how much weight Newman had added, that now he looked more like an OL.  I thought perhaps the inference might have been that it was more beer-belly than productive muscle.  I think guys often eat and drink more to add weight, but it doesn't always mean they are adding power.  And sometimes the extra pounds make them slower, and disrupt flexibility and pad-level leverage.  

Again, I don't recall that.  Looks like the same player, in pads, to me.  

But I easily could be wrong.

[vegas492]

39 minutes ago, craig said:

Thanks.  So your view is that tackle and guard are very different roles; lots of tackles can't transition to guard.  Not like my any-good big-league-SS-can-transition-to-2B/3B analogy.  Most NFL guards were previously tackles, but they were always NFL-guard-bodies even in college.   

So, you see Walker as a tackle-only.  Too tall, too weak, too many pad-level problems for guard.  Alex's view is that Walker may not have NFL-level tackle skills/technique.  Neither envisions guard as a place where he might become a decent starter or good backup, in the hypothetical that he doesn't make a career at tackle.  Too bad. 

Caleb Jones, Tenuta, Telfort:  Vegas, do you think all of these tall depth tackles in camp are too tall to have a shot at guard-useful?  Tackle-or-nothing guys, like Walker?  Or might a monster like Jones, even with his height, potentially have the power to someday play effective guard?  Or is his anchor and his leverage just too high, and it's tackle-or-bust for him?  

I don't agree with @AlexGreen#20 's assessment of Walker.  Again, I really like the frame and feet.  I don't have a clue about his head, but so far it's been fine for us.  No defensive lineman have been humped just yet.  I don't see the drive skills or anchor for guard.  I do feel like he would have the movement skills.  But his height will work against him.  Leverage.  Alex talked a little about that.  

I thought Tenuta had a shot to prove he can play in the league.  He's a big dude.  The little I saw, those hands looked really good.  The feet looked a little slower, but I saw him at RT, which looked like the right spot for him.  It looked like he was quite tall, too.  Which again means T only.  But now he's injured.  Probably go on IR or something like that.

I can't recall seeing anything from Telfort to make a comment.

Caleb Jones?  I'm going to be a homer here and say he's got "it" for RT.  Size.  Adequate footspeed.  Looks to be more physical, too.  I think his aggressiveness or physicality will hurt him on the left side, where it's more of a mirror game.  But on the right side?  Yeah.  I like that spot for him, a lot.  Wouldn't shock me one bit if he developed or progressed a lot this year and would be in contention for RT1 next year.  (Bakh moves on, Nijman moves on, Tom slides to LT and we have a hole at RT.)  I just feel really good about him and where he is at right now.

I can't see him inside.  6'9'' is tall, even for a tackle.  You simply don't see guys that tall at guard.

[Brat&Beer]

19 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Again, I don't recall that.  Looks like the same player, in pads, to me.  

But I easily could be wrong.

Rodgers did make the comment about Newman looking bigger last year. Joked that he didn't know if Newman's girlfriend would like his bigger belly. I wonder if Newman felt the extra weight didn't work for him and took the extra weight off this past offseason. 

[vegas492]

27 minutes ago, Brat&Beer said:

Rodgers did make the comment about Newman looking bigger last year. Joked that he didn't know if Newman's girlfriend would like his bigger belly. I wonder if Newman felt the extra weight didn't work for him and took the extra weight off this past offseason. 

Again, I do not recall it, and that isn't a big deal.

I think that the issue has never been his weight, it is his ability to see a stunt or blitz and react to it quickly enough.

[AlexGreen#20]

6 hours ago, Uffdaswede said:

Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Tom, Runyan, Nijman…

or

Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Meyers, Tom, Nijman…

or

Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Meyers, Runyan, Tom…

C

Though none are terrible options

[vegas492]

Dalton Risner....rail against PFF, but here are his scores.

2022:  967 snaps.  1 penalty.  3 sacks allowed.  61.1 score overall.  72.6 pass blocking.  53.4 run blocking.

2021: 832 snaps.  2 penalties.  4 sacks allowed.  68.5 score overall.  73.6 pass blocking.  63.2 run blocking.

2020:  999 snaps.  9 penalties.  0 sacks allowed.  61.3 score overall.  69.6 pass blocking.  53.7 run blocking.

2019:  975 snaps.  3 penalties.  3 sacks allowed.  64.4 score overall.  69.8 pass blocking.  60.3 run blocking.

I'd love this guy on our team if he'd play for...ahem....clear thoat...vets minimum.  After we've, uh, kicked the tires.

He plays a lot of snaps.  At the very least he will get you through a game.

And he looks like a Packers o-lineman in that his pass blocking is better than his run blocking.  

He's only 27.  Odds are he wants a starting gig.  Pretty sure he's an upgrade over JRJ.  Pretty sure he'd cost more.  Also?  Pretty sure he played LG in Denver.  That spot isn't open in GB.

 

 

 

 

[Brat&Beer]

Assuming Risner hasn't declined significantly, I have to believe the fact he's a free agent means he's asking for a fair amount of money. I imagine there are teams that need him worse than the Packers do.  

PFF scored Runyan at 65.1 in 2021 and 62.6 in 2022. 

 

Edited August 17, 2023 by Brat&Beer

[AlexGreen#20]

5 hours ago, craig said:

Newman was underpowered as a rookie, and his recognition was lacking, but his feet were excellent.  Seems two years of trying to add weight have done him harm, not good.  The Spriggs effect.  D+D, you never know.  Some guys get smarter, some don't.  Some guys optimize their bodies for their positions, Newman's attempts to get bigger have made him worse, and cost him the agility that was his primary asset.  

I'm not sure it's the body with Newman, I think he's having bad confidence issues.