Who gets the First Overall Pick?

[NudeTayne]

7 hours ago, ClutchDJ said:

My choice is Tampa. I think Atlanta & Carolina will be way better than expected. New Orleans will be flirting with purgatory. Roster is older & I honestly believe Bowles is the worst HC in the league. Even worse than McDaniels.

There's no way Tampa will have enough draft capital to trade all the way to 1 from 32. 

[Jakuvious]

First instinct for me is the Raiders. Not a fan of McDaniels or Jimmy G. They have some really strong top end talent, but it's a pretty shallow core. Adams, Jacoobs, and Crosby are all as good as just about anyone at their respective spots, but I don't like the OL overall (though Miller is good) and most of the defense is honestly terrible. Tough division on top of that, and they could definitely be one of the worst. I think it was right to move on from Carr, it was well past the point where they knew what they were getting from him, but they still absolutely downgraded there, IMO. Short term loss for long term gain should be the theory there. They do still have some top tier talent though, and that could carry them to a few wins, especially if Denver doesn't get it together this coming season.

My other option would be the Colts. I think the Colts talent gets overrated a bit still based on where it was a few years back. Some still seem to see it as a talented team that just needs a QB, I think there are plenty of issues there. The OL isn't as good as it once was, Pittman hasn't taken the leap many expected, Buckner is good but Yannick is gone and I don't see a particularly good edge rusher there, Leonard is great but coming back from serious injury, and the same with Taylor. I actually quite like Anthony Richardson, but not right away. Whether it's Minshew or Richardson right away, I think it will be an ugly start. If Richardson pans out, maybe they recover enough to not be that high up, but we'll see.

I kind of understand those saying the Bucs, but it does feel like they have too much talent left in a division that is pretty weak to do that poorly. But an implosion is always possible. Especially with Baker.

I also get the Cardinals on paper, but that one really depends on Kyler to me. Without him they're the hands down favorite. If he does wind up playing much of the season, while I'm not a huge Kyler Murray fan, on talent alone he will add a few wins there. Same as the 3-6 start last year was enough to keep them out of first overall pick territory.

[Louis Friend]

Cards are the easy pick but I’m going to go with Tampa Bay. I personally just don’t like the makeup of the team and don’t see the vision they have right now IF they have one. 

[Chiefer]

2 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

Cards are the easy pick but I’m going to go with Tampa Bay. I personally just don’t like the makeup of the team and don’t see the vision they have right now IF they have one. 

I just think that division is so bad that they’re gonna cannibalize each other and get enough divisional wins to escape the first pick. 

[Chiefer]

11 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

First instinct for me is the Raiders. Not a fan of McDaniels or Jimmy G. They have some really strong top end talent, but it's a pretty shallow core. Adams, Jacoobs, and Crosby are all as good as just about anyone at their respective spots, but I don't like the OL overall (though Miller is good) and most of the defense is honestly terrible. Tough division on top of that, and they could definitely be one of the worst. I think it was right to move on from Carr, it was well past the point where they knew what they were getting from him, but they still absolutely downgraded there, IMO. Short term loss for long term gain should be the theory there. They do still have some top tier talent though, and that could carry them to a few wins, especially if Denver doesn't get it together this coming season.

My other option would be the Colts. I think the Colts talent gets overrated a bit still based on where it was a few years back. Some still seem to see it as a talented team that just needs a QB, I think there are plenty of issues there. The OL isn't as good as it once was, Pittman hasn't taken the leap many expected, Buckner is good but Yannick is gone and I don't see a particularly good edge rusher there, Leonard is great but coming back from serious injury, and the same with Taylor. I actually quite like Anthony Richardson, but not right away. Whether it's Minshew or Richardson right away, I think it will be an ugly start. If Richardson pans out, maybe they recover enough to not be that high up, but we'll see.

I kind of understand those saying the Bucs, but it does feel like they have too much talent left in a division that is pretty weak to do that poorly. But an implosion is always possible. Especially with Baker.

I also get the Cardinals on paper, but that one really depends on Kyler to me. Without him they're the hands down favorite. If he does wind up playing much of the season, while I'm not a huge Kyler Murray fan, on talent alone he will add a few wins there. Same as the 3-6 start last year was enough to keep them out of first overall pick territory.

Colts are a good pick, but I’m a believer in Steichen and Richardson. He’s the right HC to develop a guy like that long term, might be rocky to start though. 

Kyler is a guy you can’t depend on, he gets hurt too much. He’s also recovering a leg injury and in an area that’s supposed to be his biggest strength is his running ability. Plus I live in PHX and it’s depressing how people view the team around here, plus Gannon is to me a turrible HC choice and the owner is a big dummy. A perfect storm, and you can even hedge your bet with the Texans pick lol

[Daniel]

1 hour ago, Chiefer said:

I just think that division is so bad that they’re gonna cannibalize each other and get enough divisional wins to escape the first pick. 

 

58 minutes ago, Chiefer said:

Colts are a good pick, but I’m a believer in Steichen and Richardson. He’s the right HC to develop a guy like that long term, might be rocky to start though. 

Kyler is a guy you can’t depend on, he gets hurt too much. He’s also recovering a leg injury and in an area that’s supposed to be his biggest strength is his running ability. Plus I live in PHX and it’s depressing how people view the team around here, plus Gannon is to me a turrible HC choice and the owner is a big dummy. A perfect storm, and you can even hedge your bet with the Texans pick lol

So the AFCS isn't bad enough to cannibalize each other?  Plus the AFCS teams all play the NFCS teams anyway, so the Colts face the Titans twice, the Texans twice, the Panthers, Saints, and Bucs, along with the Raiders.  That's eight very winnable games.  They just win half, they've got four wins, which is usually enough to be out of contention for the first.

[BroncoSojia]

Am I missing something about the Bucs? They have a pretty talented roster, (middle of the pack in the league, IMO) but a lot of outlets and pundits have them as one the worst teams in the league this year. A few people in this thread has them as a candidate for the number 1 overall pick, which is absurd to me. They have a decent Oline, their WR corp is solid, Baker is a league average QB IMO, and they have a pretty talented defense. I could see them challenging for the division vs being in the mix for the number 1 overall pick.

[BroncoSojia]

16 hours ago, Daniel said:

If we’re doing surprise picks, then the Packers are a good pick. Love is an unknown, and Rodgers could have been keeping them afloat.

But give me the Broncos. If Wilson is really that washed, then all it takes is a few key injuries and a split with the Raiders to put them in the hunt.

Welcome to Denver, Caleb Williams! 🙏🏾

[Chiefer]

5 minutes ago, Daniel said:

 

So the AFCS isn't bad enough to cannibalize each other?  Plus the AFCS teams all play the NFCS teams anyway, so the Colts face the Titans twice, the Texans twice, the Panthers, Saints, and Bucs, along with the Raiders.  That's eight very winnable games.  They just win half, they've got four wins, which is usually enough to be out of contention for the first.

Colts have a rookie coach in his first ever season as a HC and a more of an athlete QB who had limited snaps in college. In history that’s two things that separately aren’t very successful, and together compounds the issue.

AFCS is more of a normal division, with a “Terrible” team(Texans), mid team with a great defensive coach(Vrabel) and decent to good team potentially on the rise with the Golden Child and a former SB winning coach(Pederson)

NFCS is just a bed of awfulness, either you got Raiders south in NO, Smooth Jazz and the Bowles, Falcons with no QB, or the Young-Reich experiment. I would not be surprised if the division winner has a losing record again. Each of these teams could get the first pick, I’m not as confident that happens in the AFCS

[scar988]

4 minutes ago, Chiefer said:

Colts have a rookie coach in his first ever season as a HC and a more of an athlete QB who had limited snaps in college. In history that’s two things that separately aren’t very successful, and together compounds the issue.

AFCS is more of a normal division, with a “Terrible” team(Texans), mid team with a great defensive coach(Vrabel) and decent to good team potentially on the rise with the Golden Child and a former SB winning coach(Pederson)

NFCS is just a bed of awfulness, either you got Raiders south in NO, Smooth Jazz and the Bowles, Falcons with no QB, or the Young-Reich experiment. I would not be surprised if the division winner has a losing record again. Each of these teams could get the first pick, I’m not as confident that happens in the AFCS

Ridder is gonna surprise you this year. That's all I'm gonna say.

[Daniel]

2 minutes ago, Chiefer said:

Colts have a rookie coach in his first ever season as a HC and a more of an athlete QB who had limited snaps in college. In history that’s two things that separately aren’t very successful, and together compounds the issue.

AFCS is more of a normal division, with a “Terrible” team(Texans), mid team with a great defensive coach(Vrabel) and decent to good team potentially on the rise with the Golden Child and a former SB winning coach(Pederson)

NFCS is just a bed of awfulness, either you got Raiders south in NO, Smooth Jazz and the Bowles, Falcons with no QB, or the Young-Reich experiment. I would not be surprised if the division winner has a losing record again. Each of these teams could get the first pick, I’m not as confident that happens in the AFCS

I'll agree with you on most of that, but I do doubt that Richardson will be the day 1 starter.  It'll almost certainly be Minshew until Richardson gets things down.

[Jakuvious]

15 minutes ago, Daniel said:

So the AFCS isn't bad enough to cannibalize each other?  Plus the AFCS teams all play the NFCS teams anyway, so the Colts face the Titans twice, the Texans twice, the Panthers, Saints, and Bucs, along with the Raiders.  That's eight very winnable games.  They just win half, they've got four wins, which is usually enough to be out of contention for the first.

I don't fully disagree, as I don't think either division is going to be anything resembling good exactly, but I do think the AFCS has a couple teams with a floor that doesn't exist with their NFCS counterparts. Like, you could sell me on a future where any of the NFCS teams wind up just being trash. I find that harder to believe with a Jacksonville team led by Lawrence and Pederson, and a Titans team led by Vrabel and Tannehill (I know Tannehill isn't great, but they still went 6-6 with him as starter last year before the walls came crumbling down.)

[Jakuvious]

45 minutes ago, BroncoSojia said:

Am I missing something about the Bucs? They have a pretty talented roster, (middle of the pack in the league, IMO) but a lot of outlets and pundits have them as one the worst teams in the league this year. A few people in this thread has them as a candidate for the number 1 overall pick, which is absurd to me. They have a decent Oline, their WR corp is solid, Baker is a league average QB IMO, and they have a pretty talented defense. I could see them challenging for the division vs being in the mix for the number 1 overall pick.

He's absolutely not, first of all. The only QBs he really has an argument over right now are the unprovens, the rookies and first/second year starters, and then maybe like Mac Jones. He's easily bottom 5 of established starting QBs. At least like, Bryce Young, Kenny Pickett, Jordan Love have a bit of hope that they can become good. Baker is established as not starting caliber at this point.

Otherwise, I think people just kind of know things are going to fall apart at some point here post-Brady (they literally structured their cap knowing that this was probably going to happen), and they've already lost a pretty hefty snap count year over year. They lost a bunch of OL snaps in Smith, Mason, and Wells. Obviously Brady at QB. Fournette at RB. A bunch of DL snaps in Gholston, RNR, Nassib, and Hicks. Quite a bit in the secondary with Ryan, Edwards, Neal, Murphy-Bunting. Even just guys that have been around for a good while in the locker room like Brate and Succop. Not all great players, but it's a lot to replace from a pure snap count and locker room perspective in one year. Still have a lot of the biggest names within those position groups, but sometimes having just decent vets alongside the stars is a big deal. And they will lose a ton more next year, most likely. I think next year might be more likely for a truly bad Bucs team, but it depends on Baker really, and where they go at QB next.

[Daniel]

23 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

I don't fully disagree, as I don't think either division is going to be anything resembling good exactly, but I do think the AFCS has a couple teams with a floor that doesn't exist with their NFCS counterparts. Like, you could sell me on a future where any of the NFCS teams wind up just being trash. I find that harder to believe with a Jacksonville team led by Lawrence and Pederson, and a Titans team led by Vrabel and Tannehill (I know Tannehill isn't great, but they still went 6-6 with him as starter last year before the walls came crumbling down.)

I don't think the Titans will win fewer than 6 games.  Things would have to go really, really badly for that to happen.  But they could easily lose one to the Colts or the Jags.  They aren't looking like a great team, and division sweeps have been rare in the AFCS, even with awful teams.

I do agree that the NFCS is worse than the AFCS.  But probably only because the AFCS has the Jags.

[scar988]

1 minute ago, Daniel said:

I don't think the Titans will win fewer than 6 games.  Things would have to go really, really badly for that to happen.  But they could easily lose one to the Colts or the Jags.  They aren't looking like a great team, and division sweeps have been rare in the AFCS, even with awful teams.

I do agree that the NFCS is worse than the AFCS.  But probably only because the AFCS has the Jags.

FWIW, division sweeps (teams going 6-0 vs the division) are rare in general. Teams within a division tend to get 1 loss to a team that they shouldn't lose to if they're in division.

2004 - Eagles

2005 - Colts, Seahawks

2006 - none

2007 - Patriots

2008 - Steelers, Cardinals

2009 - Bengals, Colts

2010 - None

2011 - Ravens, Packers

2012 - Patriots, Broncos

2013 - Colts

2014 - Colts

2015 - None

2016 - Chiefs

2017 - Steelers

2018 - Rams

2019 - Chiefs, Packers

2020 - Bills, Saints

2021 - Cowboys

2022 - Chiefs, 49ers

 

It's very rare that it happens just in general.