Who gets the First Overall Pick?

[CP3MVP]

On 7/7/2023 at 1:47 PM, Jakuvious said:

He's absolutely not, first of all. The only QBs he really has an argument over right now are the unprovens, the rookies and first/second year starters, and then maybe like Mac Jones. He's easily bottom 5 of established starting QBs. At least like, Bryce Young, Kenny Pickett, Jordan Love have a bit of hope that they can become good. Baker is established as not starting caliber at this point.

Otherwise, I think people just kind of know things are going to fall apart at some point here post-Brady (they literally structured their cap knowing that this was probably going to happen), and they've already lost a pretty hefty snap count year over year. They lost a bunch of OL snaps in Smith, Mason, and Wells. Obviously Brady at QB. Fournette at RB. A bunch of DL snaps in Gholston, RNR, Nassib, and Hicks. Quite a bit in the secondary with Ryan, Edwards, Neal, Murphy-Bunting. Even just guys that have been around for a good while in the locker room like Brate and Succop. Not all great players, but it's a lot to replace from a pure snap count and locker room perspective in one year. Still have a lot of the biggest names within those position groups, but sometimes having just decent vets alongside the stars is a big deal. And they will lose a ton more next year, most likely. I think next year might be more likely for a truly bad Bucs team, but it depends on Baker really, and where they go at QB next.

Yeah “average” is like the 15th best QB in the league. 
 

Baker is nowhere close to being average right now. 

[jrry32]

The teams that will be in the hunt will likely be the teams with the worst QB play.

[Duluther]

3 hours ago, jrry32 said:

The teams that will be in the hunt will likely be the teams with the worst QB play.

So the Rams once Stafford inevitably is ruled out? There's not a team with a worse 2-deep at QB than the Rams with Stafford's thrower's elbow and Stetson Bennett. 

[iknowcool]

2 hours ago, Duluther said:

So the Rams once Stafford inevitably is ruled out? There's not a team with a worse 2-deep at QB than the Rams with Stafford's thrower's elbow and Stetson Bennett. 

Cardinals are starting the season with Colt McCoy and Jeff Driskel as their top-2 QBs.

[Duluther]

14 hours ago, iknowcool said:

Cardinals are starting the season with Colt McCoy and Jeff Driskel as their top-2 QBs.

And I'd bet they'll have Murray for more games than the Rams have Stafford.

Murray+, McCoy > Stafford-, Bennett

[jrry32]

17 hours ago, iknowcool said:

Cardinals are starting the season with Colt McCoy and Jeff Driskel as their top-2 QBs.

You're wasting your time, my friend. Rationality doesn't work with that poster.

[Trojan]

On 7/7/2023 at 8:49 PM, BetterCallSaul said:

The reason you don’t see the appeal is because the Raiders are the drizzling poops. Their roster sucks. Their QB is bleh at best. They have a bad coach and hardly any young talent. Bucksavage thinks at worst, they’re a 7 win team. He has yet to back it up with any real data other than to point to other teams that sucked and then were magically good (usually due to stud QB play, which they obviously don’t have).

Raiders don't have a trash roster.

If you use https://lastwordonsports.com/nfl/2023/07/07/most-valuable-positions-in-football/ to determine top 10 most important positions:
1. Jimmy G = less than ideal, but knows the system and has a history of playing winning football.
2. Davante Adams + Jakobi Meyers + Hunter Renfrow = one of the better trios in football.
3. Maxx Crosby + Tyree Wilson = Probably the 5th best edge rusher in the league paired with a top 10 pick that has raw potential off the charts. Even if you count Tyree as a zero, Crosby makes this a positive.
4. Kolton Miller = He's right around top 10 LT. Some might argue top 5, I think arguing around top 15 is low balling him.
5. Corners = Raiders have Hobbs who has massively over preformed his draft position and then Duke Shelly who played well in man scheme last year. This is a weakness of the Raiders with very little invested. Amik, Facyson, David Long and the rookie from Maryland Jakorian Bennett round it out.
6. Right tackle = Jermaine Eluemanor did well enough last year and depth exists at the position in Thayer Munford and Brandon Parker.
7. Safety = Not great, but Nate Hobbs worked his way into being a part of the Eagles defense and Moehrig had a lot of fans as a prospect. Christopher Smith might have a shot as a rookie from Georgia.
8. Linebackers = Essentially nothing, it's Devine Deablo and the cast offs.
9. Tight End = Michael Mayer, a top rookie, and veteran support from Austin Hooper and maybe OJ Howard. It's not a bottom group.
10. Guard = Dylan Parham was a good young guard, but the RG slot is probably an issue. It's hard to call RG a hole with the Eluemanor/Munford/Parker trio at RT because if like Munford steps up maybe Eluemanor goes to RG where he's played before and fixes it.

It's not amazing it's not likely playoffs, but like sucks? The defense is nobodies and edge rush which if you aren't going to invest in defense investing in edges is probably the most important. Offensively it should maintain drives and score points which is what you want.

[BetterCallSaul]

1 hour ago, Trojan said:

Raiders don't have a trash roster.

If you use https://lastwordonsports.com/nfl/2023/07/07/most-valuable-positions-in-football/ to determine top 10 most important positions:

 

1 hour ago, Trojan said:

1. Jimmy G = less than ideal, but knows the system and has a history of playing winning football.

Jimmy is bad. He is a below average QB at best…if he’s even healthy. 

1 hour ago, Trojan said:

2. Davante Adams + Jakobi Meyers + Hunter Renfrow = one of the better trios in football.

It isn’t bad, but you could put a prime Moss & Owens on this team and they still don’t have anyone to get them the football. 

1 hour ago, Trojan said:

3. Maxx Crosby + Tyree Wilson = Probably the 5th best edge rusher in the league paired with a top 10 pick that has raw potential off the charts. Even if you count Tyree as a zero, Crosby makes this a positive.

I think Tyree Wilson is gonna be a bust. Crosby is awesome, but most teams have 1 stud DL. They aren’t special. 

1 hour ago, Trojan said:

4. Kolton Miller = He's right around top 10 LT. Some might argue top 5, I think arguing around top 15 is low balling him. 

He is good…to great.

1 hour ago, Trojan said:

 

5. Corners = Raiders have Hobbs who has massively over preformed his draft position and then Duke Shelly who played well in man scheme last year. This is a weakness of the Raiders with very little invested. Amik, Facyson, David Long and the rookie from Maryland Jakorian Bennett round it out.

I like Bennett. This group sucks though. 

1 hour ago, Trojan said:

6. Right tackle = Jermaine Eluemanor did well enough last year and depth exists at the position in Thayer Munford and Brandon Parker.

This is not a good position for the Raiders. It’s bad. 

1 hour ago, Trojan said:

7. Safety = Not great, but Nate Hobbs worked his way into being a part of the Eagles defense and Moehrig had a lot of fans as a prospect. Christopher Smith might have a shot as a rookie from Georgia.

Hobbs is a corner. Moehrig is an average player at best. Smith is too slow to play in the NFL IMO. 

1 hour ago, Trojan said:

8. Linebackers = Essentially nothing, it's Devine Deablo and the cast offs. 

Yeah. Even Deablo isn’t good. 

1 hour ago, Trojan said:

9. Tight End = Michael Mayer, a top rookie, and veteran support from Austin Hooper and maybe OJ Howard. It's not a bottom group. 

This is a strength for them IMO. Deep and I think Mayer is gonna be a superstud. 

1 hour ago, Trojan said:

10. Guard = Dylan Parham was a good young guard, but the RG slot is probably an issue. It's hard to call RG a hole with the Eluemanor/Munford/Parker trio at RT because if like Munford steps up maybe Eluemanor goes to RG where he's played before and fixes it.

RG is straight bad. Parham is an NFL starter.. I guess that’s something.

1 hour ago, Trojan said:

It's not amazing it's not likely playoffs, but like sucks?

Yeah.

 

 

Name the teams that the Raiders roster is better than. They were a bottom 7 team last year & downgraded at QB. They also have very little ascending talent. They lack young talent across their roster. I don’t see anyone in line to make a big jump.

 

[Trojan]

8 minutes ago, BetterCallSaul said:

 

Jimmy is bad. He is a below average QB at best…if he’s even healthy. 

It isn’t bad, but you could put a prime Moss & Owens on this team and they still don’t have anyone to get them the football. 

I think Tyree Wilson is gonna be a bust. Crosby is awesome, but most teams have 1 stud DL. They aren’t special. 

He is good…to great.

I like Bennett. This group sucks though. 

This is not a good position for the Raiders. It’s bad. 

Hobbs is a corner. Moehrig is an average player at best. Smith is too slow to play in the NFL IMO. 

Yeah. Even Deablo isn’t good. 

This is a strength for them IMO. Deep and I think Mayer is gonna be a superstud. 

RG is straight bad. Parham is an NFL starter.. I guess that’s something.

Yeah.

 

 

Name the teams that the Raiders roster is better than. They were a bottom 7 team last year & downgraded at QB. They also have very little ascending talent. They lack young talent across their roster. I don’t see anyone in line to make a big jump.

 

Marcus Epps the one that was a starting safety that worked his way into starting for the Eagles last year I just had Nate Hobbs on the mind from earlier in the post and wrote his name a second time.

Teams less talented than the Raiders?

Probably the Cardinals, Rams, Texans, Colts somewhat safely. I think the volitility of Baker, Love, Ridder, Tannehill/Levis, Jones (especially if any holdout from Saquon), Fields and others some number of those teams could be worse. Broncos potentially if Russ is as bad as he was last year. Someone like Howell could not develop and then the Commanders could be worse as well.

Arizona, LAR, HOU, IND, TB, GB (also could be great), ATL, TEN, NYG (obviously had success last year though), CHI, WAS, DEN. I think probably 5 or so could be better and 5 or so worse pretty easily.

[BetterCallSaul]

7 minutes ago, Trojan said:

Probably the Cardinals, Rams, Texans, Colts somewhat safely. I think the volitility of Baker, Love, Ridder, Tannehill/Levis, Jones (especially if any holdout from Saquon), Fields and others some number of those teams could be worse. Broncos potentially if Russ is as bad as he was last year. Someone like Howell could not develop and then the Commanders could be worse as well.

Arizona, LAR, HOU, IND, TB, GB (also could be great), ATL, TEN, NYG (obviously had success last year though), CHI, WAS, DEN. I think probably 5 or so could be better and 5 or so worse pretty easily.

I feel like you are crazy if you think LV will be better than most of those teams. TB, LAR, HOU, ATL, GB, NYG, and WAS will easily be better. The Raiders, aside from the Cardinals, have the worst overall roster. And at least those other bad teams have ascending talent. LV has nothing to be excited about IMO. 

[Duluther]

The Packers are very talented. They've neglected high end resources to receiver and lost Rodgers and that's exactly why and only why people are saying they're not very talented. Look down the roster, particularly defense.

[BetterCallSaul]

18 minutes ago, Duluther said:

The Packers are very talented. They've neglected high end resources to receiver and lost Rodgers and that's exactly why and only why people are saying they're not very talented. Look down the roster, particularly defense.

The Packers roster is fine. If Love is good, they’re title contenders. I have major questions about that, but even without him being successful, the roster is filled with young talent. They could still win that division with an average Jordan Love. That said, I think Love is the kind of QB that will either be really good or atrocious—not middling. 

[Trojan]

30 minutes ago, BetterCallSaul said:

I feel like you are crazy if you think LV will be better than most of those teams. TB, LAR, HOU, ATL, GB, NYG, and WAS will easily be better. The Raiders, aside from the Cardinals, have the worst overall roster. And at least those other bad teams have ascending talent. LV has nothing to be excited about IMO. 

I feel like you are crazy. GB is the only one I'd say is easily better and the only reason to include them is the Jordan Love is an unknown and if he's bad it wastes the roster.

Eluemanor was one of the better RTs in football last year that isn't in the All Pro conversation, like if you remove the Lane Johnson/Tristan Wirfs/Penei Sewell/Ryan Ramcyzk/Brian ONeill tier who was better than him? Morgan Moses? Like it's not going to be a massive list. The Raiders have the league rushing leader, but you think the team with Baker Mayfield and Rachaad White is going to be easily better? Jimmy isn't great, but he's been to the playoffs frequently because he's been surrounded with talent and plays quick read short ball conservatively with stacked playmakers around him. Davante is the man at WR. Meyers and Renfrow are starting caliber to round it out. I don't know how you'd include the Texans unless you feel like DeMeco is the GOAT coach or something or have unbelievable confidence in the health of their DBs that have significant injury risk (Stingley obvious concerns since his freshman year, Griffin is coming off missing last year, and Jimmie Ward is hurt all the time). Like beyond the DBs what is making you confident in Houston? Rookie QB to Nico/Woods/Metchie could be good eventually but there's no way that's a needle mover. Woods was cooked in Tennessee, Nico is fine but not a needle mover and Metchie is coming off cancer like are you really grading that better than Adams, Meyer, Renfrow? You think a rookie is going to adjust to the NFL faster than Jimmy going back to Josh McDaniels? I don't care that JMD is garbage, I'm aware but there's no damn way it's easily worse than Houston.  Rams are three amazing players and a great coach, Kupp has Adams to compare, Donald has Maxx, and Stafford has Jimmy. The Rams are older in each, although bigger stars. I'd take Raiders rest of roster than Rams though. Bashing Raiders DBs, what's in LA you're projecting as much better Yeast? Fuller? Rochell? Durant? Who (I know Rochell has immense potential talent, but it's potential)?  GB is only listed because there is a real chance Jordan Love is very bad and injuries have kinda lingered around the team. NYG I think is either great or massive regression, and I don't believe in Daniel Jones at least yet I think Saquon holds out. Washington is if Howell is amazing, if not there is no way you are picking them unless you think Chase Young is suddenly going to revert to being a top pick quality player.

[bucksavage1]

On 7/7/2023 at 8:49 PM, BetterCallSaul said:

The reason you don’t see the appeal is because the Raiders are the drizzling poops. Their roster sucks. Their QB is bleh at best. They have a bad coach and hardly any young talent. Bucksavage thinks at worst, they’re a 7 win team. He has yet to back it up with any real data other than to point to other teams that sucked and then were magically good (usually due to stud QB play, which they obviously don’t have).

Raiders could have easily won 10 games again for the second year in a row. Raiders lost 9 one score games. The roster is better going into the season than last season

People point at McDaniels but Carr career limitations in RZ, turnovers and pocket presence lost the Raiders games at least half of those one score games. Jimmy G while not easy on the eyes at times is a top 10 QB in many advanced statistics. He’s a better fit in the offense and has enough supporting cast to succeed especially in the RZ.

Despite the 6 wins, Raiders still had:

1) Leading Rusher in NFL

2) Leading WR in TDs in NFL 

3) Leading TFL defender in NFL

4) Top 5 kicking/punting unit

5) Returning O-line that produced #1 rusher

This is not the worst team in the NFL. 

The defense has the potential to get better this season. Chandler Jones should bounce after a down season that adds with Maxx Crosby and rookie Tyree Wilson. Regardless of what you think of the rookie, his physical traits length and strength at minimum should help the team attract more attention away from Maxx and create disruption. 
 

 

 

Edited July 10, 2023 by bucksavage1

[scar988]

On 7/7/2023 at 11:37 PM, Chiefer said:

More power to you guys if he does do well. I actually really like your style of team, and the Bijan Robinson pick is a perfect fit. I’m definitely not one of those snooty Draft Value guys.

Like iM not hating at all, but the Chiefs have gotten a number one pick with an elite RB before. 

They've definitely built the team like they did for first 2-3 years Matt Ryan where he didn't have the game figured out yet, but he had all the weapons around him to assist his development. He has a more than competent No. 1 WR, a top 5 TE in the game and a running game that will protect him if he needs it. He also has one of the better OLs in the NFL. Good way to develop a young QB instead of throwing him to the wolves with no help like some teams.