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Who gets the First Overall Pick?


Chiefer

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4 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

Cards are the easy pick but I’m going to go with Tampa Bay. I personally just don’t like the makeup of the team and don’t see the vision they have right now IF they have one. 

      While I'm sticking with the Cardinals, Tampa Bay is an 8 win team that has since dropped from 6th to 22nd in overall talent and is going, literally, from the GOAT (Greatest Of All Time) to the WOOT (Worst Of Our Time) at QB, Mayfield being the only starter on record to have the lowest Average Depth of Target and lowest completion percentage at the same time.

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30 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

      While I'm sticking with the Cardinals, Tampa Bay is an 8 win team that has since dropped from 6th to 22nd in overall talent and is going, literally, from the GOAT (Greatest Of All Time) to the WOOT (Worst Of Our Time) at QB, Mayfield being the only starter on record to have the lowest Average Depth of Target and lowest completion percentage at the same time.

Mayfield had 60% completions last year, Zack Wilson 54.5. 10 starts to 9 may make Wilson below the official number?

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On 7/6/2023 at 10:41 AM, Chiefer said:

Do the Bears repeat?

The bears have had the pick one time in the super bowl era and via a series of flukes: gutting the roster, losing games with no business being close in retrospect, transitioning to a new coaching crew, and then the cherry on top: the Texans handing it to us. We made strides from last year that will win a few but won’t make us special. 5-7 wins is what I expect, north of that won’t be shocking based on the energy of this team. But I sincerely doubt we’re even in discussions for it at mid season. 
 

I’d say the likeliest teams for it will be: Arizona, Tampa, and Tennessee. Atlanta maybe. 

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38 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Not talking about year-end stats here.

Then you make even less sense.

Mayfield's lowest intended air yards per attempt before last year was 8.5 which is better than all but one of Tom Brady's last 5 seasons. His was even higher than Brady's last year, although both were terrible.

Mayfield's lowest completion percentage year was 59.4. Tim Tebow's career completion percentage was 47.9 and yards per attempt 6.7 to Mayfield's 7.2.

I think you either have bad info, something really obscure or made up.

Mayfield has struggled but he has a higher career rating than Joe Flacco and Eli Manning. He hasn't been historically bad.

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22 hours ago, Trojan said:

I think my sleeper pick for 1st overall is the Steelers.

What it would take is Kenny Pickett not taking a leap. Najee being burned out/loaded box and averaging poorly. Terrible OL play. Defensively it'd take TJ Watt injury that sticks for a while and early and pair with Peterson being old and done and Joey Porter Jr. being called for too many flags.

I think all of those are possible and some maybe even probable. I think 8-10 wins is more likely, but if the Steelers ended up with the top pick it wouldn't surprise me. Tomlin gets his one awful year, then a decade more with Caleb Williams seems about right.

This is gonna age like milk my guy.

Steelers haven't even had a losing season under Tomlin. Watt missed a bunch of games last year. And Pickett actually progressed throughout his rookie season and now has a better supporting cast. 

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3 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

      While I'm sticking with the Cardinals, Tampa Bay is an 8 win team that has since dropped from 6th to 22nd in overall talent and is going, literally, from the GOAT (Greatest Of All Time) to the WOOT (Worst Of Our Time) at QB, Mayfield being the only starter on record to have the lowest Average Depth of Target and lowest completion percentage at the same time.

Tampa is definitely a possibility and I do not trust Todd Bowles to lead that team anywhere without Brady.

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4 hours ago, BroncoSojia said:

Am I missing something about the Bucs? They have a pretty talented roster, (middle of the pack in the league, IMO) but a lot of outlets and pundits have them as one the worst teams in the league this year. A few people in this thread has them as a candidate for the number 1 overall pick, which is absurd to me. They have a decent Oline, their WR corp is solid, Baker is a league average QB IMO, and they have a pretty talented defense. I could see them challenging for the division vs being in the mix for the number 1 overall pick.

8-9 with Brady/Bowles

How are they expected to improve upon that with basically no offseason additions and downgrading at QB to Baker?

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10 hours ago, scar988 said:

Ridder is gonna surprise you this year. That's all I'm gonna say.

More power to you guys if he does do well. I actually really like your style of team, and the Bijan Robinson pick is a perfect fit. I’m definitely not one of those snooty Draft Value guys.

Like iM not hating at all, but the Chiefs have gotten a number one pick with an elite RB before. 

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10 hours ago, Daniel said:

I'll agree with you on most of that, but I do doubt that Richardson will be the day 1 starter.  It'll almost certainly be Minshew until Richardson gets things down.

I forgot all about Minshew, be interesting to see if Uncle Rico can do a little better then he did last year as the starter.

 

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8 hours ago, Ty21 said:

The bears have had the pick one time in the super bowl era and via a series of flukes: gutting the roster, losing games with no business being close in retrospect, transitioning to a new coaching crew, and then the cherry on top: the Texans handing it to us. We made strides from last year that will win a few but won’t make us special. 5-7 wins is what I expect, north of that won’t be shocking based on the energy of this team. But I sincerely doubt we’re even in discussions for it at mid season. 
 

I’d say the likeliest teams for it will be: Arizona, Tampa, and Tennessee. Atlanta maybe. 

Look my best friend is a Bears fan, it’s basically my second team, y’all and the Lions. And you guys got us 2 thirds with the poles hire so I like you guys.
 

but you guys also earned that number one last year, if Fields doesn’t take that next step what have you got. That defense still needs work, but I like the moves you made to increase the offense. And admittedly I’m still not the biggest believer in Eberflus.  
 

It’s really unlikely to get the number one again, you gotta be a special kind of bad for that I know. I’m looking forward to seeing JF with some weapons and OL to work with. 

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On 7/6/2023 at 12:52 PM, SmittyBacall said:

I would confidently bet the following teams will finish with a better record than the Raiders: Commanders, Patriots, Saints, Seahawks, and Broncos. And potentially the Texans and Colts. I do not see their appeal at all.

The reason you don’t see the appeal is because the Raiders are the drizzling poops. Their roster sucks. Their QB is bleh at best. They have a bad coach and hardly any young talent. Bucksavage thinks at worst, they’re a 7 win team. He has yet to back it up with any real data other than to point to other teams that sucked and then were magically good (usually due to stud QB play, which they obviously don’t have).

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On 7/7/2023 at 8:33 AM, Chiefer said:

I just think that division is so bad that they’re gonna cannibalize each other and get enough divisional wins to escape the first pick. 

I like the Saints and Falcons better than the Bucs. While the division is no juggernaut, I like what those two teams are building over what the Bucs have been tearing down. 

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 the steelers going so long without having a terrible yr(picking in the top 5) has me thinking we are due..since it looks like a good yr to have the 1st pick, it won't be the worse thing in the world to go 3-14 lol

Edited by August4th
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