BDL 2023 Bizz Bowl sponsered by JLash - #6 New Orleans Jazz vs. #4 Camden Hood Rats

[RedGold]

While I don’t love Deebo starting at RB, I can appreciate the versatility it brings, and it will help Allen’s legs out a bit more.

Camden came in with a strong gameplan,  and for some solid productive from their RB crew this week.

It’s the Bizz Bowl and we have two very solid rosters and gameplans.   In the end, I actually expect both defenses to hold their own in this matchup.   I think both teams did well to limit the opposing offense.

In the end, I think Nola has a few more horses to make the individual plays to come out on top this game.

 

Nola 24-21

[Blue]

1 hour ago, WFLukic said:

Appreciate the analysis and time taken on this one.

Fwiw Gilmore did lock him down a few weeks back. Now if you think it was a fluke or it would be different if they were to go at it again but with Tua instead of Hurts, then fair enough. But Gilmore has shown he definitely can do it, at least for one game.

Brown didn’t go nuts or anything but he definitely still got his in both Dallas games.

[MD4L]

Wow what a fun game. Congrats to both @TedLavie and @WFLukic for extraordinary game plans. I enjoyed reading them both throughly and cross examining matchups.

[MD4L]

Onto the game itself

NO O v Camden D

Fun matchup. I like the newly refined look for Deebo as full time RB and the position less football fits well with Deebo’s skill set and Allen’s ability to play bully ball as a QB. I think it works, especially in a single elimination setting like this.

I think Camden made a mistake not providing stronger coverage support to DJ Moore. Darious Williams is having a good year and some ball production but even w safety help, Moore is a different level of talent for Williams. Adding a big time arm like Allen further emphasizes the big play threat because Moore has done plentiful damage on screens and shorter routes before displaying elite YAC ability. It’s not out of the vicinity in even a competitive matchup (you could tell me Williams catches an INT this game) that Moore goes deep on a game changing play. That’s a hard matchup to not circle back to moving along with my analysis here.

I like most of Camden’s remaining defensive plan. I think the Deebo strategy works. They planned for Deebo as an RB but obviously will end up having to utilize that more than they would’ve expected. I don’t like Ward on Deebo but if the primary of those targets are check downs and open field situations, I can see Ward making stops and equally important is a guy like David running down to make tackles is feasible. Deebo will certainly do Deebo-lite things but I think we’re talking statlines closer to 6 catches, 70-80 yards compared to 150 yards which he’s capable of.

I get the NO plan to target Ferguson but I think that gives Camden some wins defensively considering the many alternatives (including Henry/Mostert/Allen runs). 
 

I do think Camden effectively shuts down Rice but probably specialized too much to stop his usage. Rice is coming along nicely but we’re talking about a rookie in a big play deprived offense with 1 career 100 yard receiving game. There were bigger fish to fry and with a legitimate all pro at CB, I feel like that’s a bit over use of what’s an exceptionally gifted player against a talented but not primary focal point of the NO offense.

Camden’s pass rush is an equalizer here. They can run down QBs and have the edges to deal with a runner like Allen. Testing DE Josh Allen or Montez Sweat on scramble drill situations isn’t necessarily an ideal place to be, even with an elite running QB ala Allen. I also think Nuke is relatively slowed down here.

Camden O vs NO D

Another fun matchup. Credit to Camden for not giving up on Ekeler as he played better this week. I like their idea to run a pass based offense and there are matchups to be had. While Bosa is elite, I think Lane Johnson is his match. Bosa should have a couple pressure and perhaps convert one into a sack, but Johnson is a pretty potent weapon considering he’s Tua’s blindside. I get the help on Bosa but even keeping on an island vs Johnson is still a fairly safe strategy imo. Tua’s calling card is getting the ball out ridiculously quickly this year so he’ll have plenty of throws without getting pressured.

And that’s where Camden’s OL becomes so much more valuable. If Tua does have to hold onto the ball more, he’s not in trouble vs this pass rush because his protection. Camden blocks well on the edges and their interior line is arguably the leagues best. Tua’s decision making can fluster when he’s holds it but he’ll have time to do his thing and can even scramble when nobody is open on a couple occasions to get some easy yards for a defense that understandably makes no comment about his dual threat ability.

There are areas that point in Camden’s favor offensively. Brown vs Gilmore will be fun. I do think Gilmore limits Brown but with a clean pocket and some extra time to find his man, there is potential for Brown to break out a big play or 2. I know Kupp has taken a step back but NO doesn’t really have horses to stop him. Camden also has the pass volume opportunity for Kupp to blow up like we’ve seen when the occasion arises for him IRL. Lenoir and Hilton are good players IRL but in this league they get targeted much more and for good reason. There’s success to be had and I think even a guy like Shaheed can get a couple nice 3rd down grabs with Tua having an OL that can protect.

While I think Mathieu has taken a step back, I love the value he and Davis possess in a game like this. They do have the championship mojo and are excellent veteran leadership. I also really love the idea of having Mathieu play underneath without player responsibility because outside of that role which he can be suitable, I think Camden could’ve taken advantage of him in any other situation. Pairing him and Davis is solid in that space. Both players should be racking up tackles whether on check downs or general completions in the middle of the field.

Now onto the actual game pick.

 

[MD4L]

1st quarter: New Orleans offense takes advantage of Camden not expecting a full time work load for Deebo at RB. Without Morrow on the field, New Orleans gets an efficient drive down field and DJ Moore opens the game with a TD. Camden gets a first or two but is unable to get points on the board. New Orleans second drive also gets down the field. In the redzone, an Allen scramble drill ends in a Sweat/Allen sack. New Orleans kicks a FG. 10-0 NO.

2nd quarter: Camden gets down the field but can’t punch it in after a nice play by Tyrann to help Gilmore in coverage vs Brown. Camden FG. New Orleans responds with a FG through some Henry/Mostert usage. Both teams exchange punts. Camden’s wildcat plan (which I LOVED) catches New Orleans off guard, and leads to some consecutive plays where they get down the field. Tua finishes the drive himself w a Kupp TD. Allen aims to work some two minute magic but a promising drive ends in a Williams INT when Allen forces into double coverage. 13-10 NO

HALFTIME

3rd quarter: The Fields wildcat offense continues to do damage (WHY DID New Orleans MAKE NO REFERENCE TO IT WHEN TED’s USED IT REGULARLY THIS YEAR?) and sparks the Camden offense. Tua’s clean pocket also gets him in rhythm and Camden gets their 3rd score in 4 drives, this time to take a lead on another Kupp TD. New Orleans gets some Allen magic and Deebo does some damage on those check downs to get them back into the redzone. Again, the Camden pass rush (now w Donald getting active), swarms Allen forcing NO to a FG. NO FG. Tua keeps his offense on schedule w some Ekeler usage, but a big time 3rd down stop in the redzone leads to a FG and tie game entering the 4th. 20-20.

 

4th quarter
Camden forces a 3 and out. Camden’s wildcat helps during the drive but Tua keeps the offense on schedule primarily. Bosa finally makes a big play in the 4th (that’s what the elite ones do) as the DL for both teams seem to make their impact. Camden gets a FG. 23-20. On the ensuing Allen drive he gets to midfield before the Camden pass rush again swoops in and forces a fumble giving the ball back to Tua. Tua drives Camden down field but the offense stalls with about 7 mins left. Camden kicks another FG. 26-20. New Orleans responds with its best drive of the season and all cylinders clicking. Deebo’s check down gets yardage, Allen is efficient with his quick strikes to Ferguson/Hopkins. NO gets to Camden’s 35 ish before the pass rush again makes another big play on 1st down. On a 2nd and 23 that turns into a 3rd and 16, Allen converts a big play to DJ Moore right around the two minute warning. Ensuing runs with Henry AND Allen lead to a goal line tush push which gets Allen in with about 1 minute left. Tua responds by a couple completions to Brown and Kupp to get the ball close to midfield. However, after a couple incompletions on 3rd down, Tua gets over 2.5 seconds before making a throw, the sub package with the Smith/Bosa stunt getting Bosa against Meinerz, Bosa hits Tua before he throws and the ball ends up in Mathieu’s hands ending the game and giving New Orleans its first title.

NO 27-26.

[rackcs]

This is a really tough game, I think both teams did a good job of anticipating what their opponent was going to do. I think is a game that is going to be made on big plays for both teams. I think the New Orleans offense is going to be able to generate a few more big plays late that gives them the edge.

[PR]

The problem I forsee is Camden's edges crashing NOs OTs and Deebo is your final hope of a block. Saying Deebo will get majority but then Henry and Mostert get equal snaps to each other shows that the RBs won't be on the field very often Nd when they are it'll be primarily for a tush push scenario.  While it gives you more players in the shallow end of the field to throw to, I don't know if those timing plays will be helped with Camdens pressure. 

Congrats on both of you makingvit this far, but I have to give the game based on a solid strategy to Camden.

[LAOJoe]

I said I wouldn't vote unless it was OT but after reading the plans I have a clear winner and I don't think it's fair if they lose before OT because of it if I rob them that chance. I'll explain later but agree a lot with MD4L.

Edited December 28, 2023 by LAOJoe

[MD4L]

@Pickle Rick @RuskieTitan @MWil23 @ny92mike @The Orca @Xmad

We have a tie! Vote.

Edited December 28, 2023 by MD4L

[RuskieTitan]

6 minutes ago, MD4L said:

@Pickle Rick @RuskieTitan @MWil23 @ny92mike @The Orca @Xmad

We have a tie! Vote.

Twice?

[LAOJoe]

Lol. Ya. Ruskie already voted.

[MD4L]

Just now, RuskieTitan said:

Twice?

Whoops!

@RTTRUTH We have a tie. Vote!

[LAOJoe]

To explain my pick. I feel that both had pretty good gameplan but the Jazz do a better job of containing the other team defensively. I don't think this will be super high scoring but the Jazz get ahead early to being more prepared and while both teams will get some big plays and Camden would narrow the gap, I feel the Jazz would force more punts while they can keep the drives going a bit longer and also have the cushion to allow enough different looks for the D, while Camden will have to get even less dimensional than I think they already are on offense. So 10-0 early, 17-7 by half and the Jazz stop enough big plays and defend the middle of the field enough for the passing to become more obvious and thus the punts when they are defended to come. Jazz get 2 more FGs on deep drives and a TD while Camden gets 2 TDs and fails going for 2 on a late comeback attempt.

30-20 Jazz

Edited December 28, 2023 by LAOJoe

[TedLavie]

3 hours ago, MD4L said:

@Pickle Rick @RuskieTitan @MWil23 @ny92mike @The Orca @Xmad

We have a tie! Vote.

@MikeT14

[MWil23]

Congratulations to both of you for making it and I hate having to vote here.
 

I understand what NOLA is trying to do with Deebo, but I think Mostert gives tremendous value as a dual threat RB and I just don’t think the skill gets stronger with DHop and Rice, as I think the complete opposite rings true. There’s really no mention of establishing a run game between the tackles or trying to establish any type of quick game, it looks like hero ball from Josh Allen…more than anything I really don’t like 90+% of the personnel grouping being 3+ WR. I think if you used some 2 RB and even some heavier groupings to go with Allen’s running ability you’d windshield wiper Camden up and down the field and hit some vertical chances.

As for Camden, while they have no real ability to run the ball as Ekeler has been bad this year, they got the exact matchups they wanted with Brown and Nico, who in my opinion is a speedster that Tua would use.

I think Camden hits some RAC opportunities to Collins early, forces the safeties to come down, and hits a big shot or two to Brown as the game goes. They force Josh Allen to be patient and since NOLA didn’t really try to adjust to a heavier personnel, they miss a golden opportunity to run over them. Josh Allen throws 2+ INT into 2 deep coverage downfield and NOLA walks away wondering how they didn’t win this one.

Camden 31

Nola 24