Last Minute 1 Round Mock Draft with Trades and Explanations:

[Tugboat]

Thought i'd at least try to get a 1 round mock draft attempt in before the actual draft.  Intended to do more, but never got around to it.  Anyway...some of these picks may not end up being correct projections.  Some of them may even be offensive to fans in the brief meantime before the real thing sends everyone into outrage or euphoria.  I'm also bad at guesstimating trade values...leaning a little bit on Trade Value Charts, but most of the time those are way off too.

 

Trades:
NE #3 to NYG for #6, #47.
LAC #5 to MIN for #11, #23, 2025 Pick.
ATL #8 to DEN for #12, 2025 Pick.
CHI #9, #75 to JAX for #17, #48, #96.
SEA #16 to PHI for #22, 2025 Pick.
PIT #20 to BUF for #28, 2025 Pick.

Round 1

1) Chicago Bears (from Carolina): Caleb Williams, QB - USC.

-For better or worse, it feels pretty clear that Caleb is the pick here.  They've put in place a ton of talent that is very unusual for a top picking team.  We'll see how it goes.

2) Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB - LSU.

-I still buy into the idea that Daniels is more of a "Kliff QB" and does have the dynamic talent as a thrower and runner to justify this pick if he can learn to protect himself better and stay healthy.

3) New York Giants (from New England): Marvin Harrison Jr, WR - Ohio State.

-The Giants aren't that far removed from making the playoffs with Daniel Jones at the helm.  I think they give that combo with Daboll one last run out...and if Danny Dimes can't produce with Daboll and arguably the cleanest blue chip WR prospect to come out in ages, that really seals the deal (if it's not sealed already).  Having a potentially Elite WR is also never something you're going to regret, no matter what the future has in store for them at QB.  I think the ability to only drop back a tiny bit and only give up a shot at a few prospects makes the price more palatable for NYG and the trade-back easier to swallow for a Patriots team that are still in the very earliest stages of a complete franchise overhaul after the Belichick era reigning for so long.  They're not a QB or a WR away from "contending".  They've got needs everywhere, so an extra Top-60 pick is welcome.

4) Arizona Cardinals: Malik Nabers, WR - LSU.

-With getting leapfrogged for MHJ, Arizona still just go for the best WR available.  It's not even entirely certain that they wouldn't have the two neck and neck anyway.  Nabers clearly has an explosive, dynamic playmaking skillset.  Decent consolation prize in any case.

5) Minnesota Vikings (from Chargers): Drake Maye, QB - UNC.

-This is the guy i think the Vikings covet most.  They've clearly postured themselves by accumulating an extra 1st round pick, to make moves going up to get "their guy" at QB.  Having him "slip" to 5 lets them get it done.  He's got a lot to clean up in his game, but he's got all the tools and traits to thrive in that system with those sort of weapons around him offensively.  Expect bumps in the road and growing pains, maybe even more so than the average rookie QB...but the upside is huge there.  Chargers trade back to give Harbaugh additional ammunition to carry on the process of reshaping the Chargers in his image and the culture he wants to instill.  

6) New England Patriots (from Giants): Joe Alt, OT - Notre Dame.

-May not be the flashiest "sexy" pick, but when you're in the Patriots position of needing a lot of pretty much everything and just laying the foundations of a complete organizational rebuild...it's hard not to see a blue chip LT prospect like this as a rock solid building block to lock down that spot for the next decade+ in whatever else is to come for them down the road.

7) Tennessee Titans: Olu Fashanu, OT - Penn State.

-Missing out on Alt by a pick, the Titans pivot to the "next best thing" with another LT who has all the tools, traits, and arguably even higher athletic upside anyway.  It's just not a spot they can afford not to address early.

😎 Denver Broncos (from Atlanta): JJ McCarthy, QB - Michigan. 

-The winner of the "JJ McCarthy Sweepstakes" comes here.  Denver also answer the glaring question, "who exactly is their quarterback?"  A massive projection mystery box pick...McCarthy at least appears to have solid NFL level tools and undeniable winning pedigree.  He also thrives throwing over the middle, a staple of Payton offenses.  Atlanta have a variety of picks they could easily make here, but also have the luxury of moving back a small handful of spots to collect additional draft capital and still being nearly guaranteed to have some of them on the board.

9) Jacksonville Jaguars (from Chicago): Rome Odunze, WR - Washington.

-The Jaguars desperately need to get Trevor Lawrence a proper #1 WR Weapon.  He hasn't had one in his career and it's limited his success.  Odunze is exactly the sort of big, dependable, contested catch target that is a QBs best friend and has been missing from the offense.  The ability to win in pretty much any way, from moving the chains in the short and intermediate game, to downfield jump ball plays.  Giving up a 2nd rounder is tough when there are other pressing needs to fill, but with an assortment of mid-round picks, maybe they can package some to get back into range for a DB on Day2.  The Bears recoup a missing 2nd round pick and will still have all sorts of talent to select from to help build that team around Caleb at 17.

10) New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE - Georgia.

-The Jets seem to be on a course of "all in" on this year with AAron and various other aging and unreliable veteran dimming stars to go with their robust defense and various other weapons.  OLine would be the other obvious direction here, and rookie TEs are often hit or miss at best in their first year impact in the league...but the type of receiving target Bowers is, would add a completely different dimension to that offense and likely not asked to hold up much in blocking as a true TE.  More of a Jumbo WR who can threaten the seams.

11) Los Angeles Chargers (from Minnesota): Taliese Fuaga, OT - Oregon State.

-After dealing down to get here, Harbaugh's dream prospect falls right into his lap anyway.  They don't need a LT...but an absolute mauler of a RT plays directly into the sort of football the Chargers are going to want to play, dominating the trenches with what could quickly become one of the best pairs of "bookend" Tackles around the league.

12) Atlanta Falcons (from Denver): Dallas Turner, EDGE - Bama.

-Moving down, picking up extra draft capital...and still having their pick of the defensive players is a perfect scenario for Atlanta.  Lots of directions they could go here depending on preference between the top Edge rushers and the top DBs, but i think they pull the trigger on arguably the highest upside Rush LBer prospect and circle back in what is a very deep looking CB class.

13) Las Vegas Raiders: Quinyon Mitchell, CB - Toledo.

-It's way too early to look at any of the remaining QBs, so i think Telesco as real "accumulator of talent" type manager just sees his choice of the top CB in the draft at a position of need, and doesn't look a gift horse in the mouth.  Bigtime playmaking upside, and that's something they could really use on defense.  Looping around for a Day2 QB or just waiting for next year while Moustache Guy holds down the fort will have to be the play under center.

14) New Orleans Saints: Amarius Mims, OT - Georgia.

-Bigtime "risk/reward" pick here with his injury history.  But the Saints haven't seemed shy about taking risks in the draft and they really need high upside impact talent to make any sort of dent in their situation within a division that is still ripe for the taking if things go right for them.  At a position of need and one that is likely very important to helping Carr stay upright, healthy, and comfortable enough in the pocket.

15) Indianapolis Colts: Terrion Arnold, CB - Bama.

-The division is turning into a bit of a potential arms race.  Between what Stroud did as a rookie and what they've added and the Jaguars adding a weapon like Odunze earlier, having the sort of DBs to match up with and stymie those passing attacks is going to be paramount in the coming years.  Arnold has a lot of versatility and upside in doing just that.

16) Philadelphia Eagles (from Seattle): Cooper DeJean, DB - Iowa.

-Howie making moves, sees the run on CBs starting and jumps up to grab the last of the clear cut top tier guys.  Still not altogether clear where DeJean will ultimately settle in, or if he'll be more of a roving, moveable matchup chess piece in the secondary, but he's got all sorts of toughness and natural playmaking ability.  Confident they'd find a fit for him somewhere in a secondary that clearly needs improvement.

17) Chicago Bears (from Jacksonville): Jared Verse, EDGE - FSU.

-Another team reaping the rewards of a trade back, and still having a guy they might have looked at much earlier fall right into their lap.  There's good OLinemen available here who might also make sense to continue to set up new QB of the Future Caleb for success offensively...but part of creating a great situation for a rookie QB is insulating them with a robust defense so they're not forced into playing Hero Ball in shootouts every week as well.  Verse may not have sky high upside as a pure pass rusher, but he's got plenty of upside as a responsible pass rusher and run defender to plant opposite of Sweat to threaten both edges.

18) Cincinnati Bengals: Graham Barton, IOL - Duke.

-Keeping Joe Burrow healthy has to be a top priority.  Barton is likely limited to Interior OLine duty in the NFL, but he's got a ton of versatility, superb quickness and balance, smart and aware in recognition, always moves in control and with a solid anchor.  A good complement to some bigger, slower moving powerhouse tackles.  Wherever he settles in to their line, he'll contribute positively to keeping Burrow from getting killed.

19) Los Angeles Rams: Jer'Zhan Newton, DT - Illinois.

-Always hate to lay a mantle like this on a guy as "the replacement for" a HoF bound player retiring from a team like the outgoing Aaron Donald.  Never really fair to them.  But Newton is a violent, disruptive presence as a pretty much plug 'n play backfill for the outgoing superstar.  Bigtime upside and clear value to me at this point.

20) Buffalo Bills (from Pittsburgh): Brian Thomas Jr, WR - LSU.

-The Bills desperately need to replenish a WR room that they largely emptied out this offseason.  Get an itchy trigger finger and move up a bit to make sure they can get their guy.  Thomas Jr has a rare HWS athletic profile, excels in tracking deep balls over his shoulder.  Paired with Josh Allen's huge arm and abundant willingness to cut it loose downfield, and at worst...they've initially got a prolific lid lifter.  He also has all the tools to develop into much more in time, as he expands and refines his route repertoire and craft as a whole.

21) Miami Dolphins: Bryon Murphy, DT - Texas.

-One of those players who slides a bit not because nobody likes them, but more because other teams like one other player better, or at a position of bigger need.  But outstanding value on a clean DLine prospect falls right in alignment with an obvious need with the departure of Wilkins.  Plugs right in to help fill the gap, with impact upside.

22) Seattle Seahawks (from Philadelphia): Troy Fautanu, OT/G - Washington.

-A guy with realistic 5-position versatility on the OLine for a team with needs there, combined with some familiarity with staff just feels too easy.  

23) Los Angeles Chargers (from Cleveland via Houston and Minnesota): Keon Coleman, WR - FSU.

-The fruits of a trade-down, the Chargers gutted their WR room, and while that's unlikely to be the focal point of the offense under Harbs/Roman, they do still need somebody for Herbert to toss the ball too.  Coleman feels like a great fit for that sort of ball control, move the chains and grind them down type offense.  Whether he plays outside or as a big slot, he has the ability to set a physically imposing tone in the passing game and help keep the sticks moving by winning the sort of contested catches that Keenan Allen used to handle.

24) Dallas Cowboys - JC Latham, OT - Bama.

-A bunch of different directions they could go here in addressing the OLine with reasonable "value" prospects.  But Latham just feels like a Cowboys pick.  Despite some more iffy results of late, Alabama OLinemen tend to carry a certain cachet, and Latham is an absolute behemoth when he gets ahold of a guy.  Whether he starts inside at Guard with the option to kick out to Tackle later, or just starts at Tackle, it feels like a pick that could address a need and help to continue turning over that OLine with fresh meat.

25) Green Bay Packers - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB - Bama.

-Kool-Aid has kind of lost some steam in the draft process as he's been passed by his teammate Terrion Arnold, but he's still the sort of CB with solid tools coming from a strong program that teams covet and feels largely in line with the sort of DB picks the Packers make.  OLine is another option here, but they seem to have done well with somewhat later picks and projects and developing them into quality starters, so i can see them opting to wait in a pretty deep OLine class.

26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL - Oregon.

-Not entirely sure how it would all shuffle out, but keeping Baker clean and free of interior pressure and with solid throwing lanes seems like it should be a priority.  The "value" on JPJ feels very strong in terms of draft stock here.

27) Arizona Cardinals (from Houston): Laiatu Latu, EDGE - UCLA.

-Injury and upside concerns and even some scheme versatility see arguably the most "polished" pass rusher in the draft fall to the back end of the round.  At that point, it's clearly worth the risk, especially for a team with a glaring need for help in their pass rush off the edge.

28) Pittsburgh Steelers (from Buffalo): Adonai Mitchell, WR - Texas.

-I don't know for sure how much weight to put behind some of the "attitude/character/diva" concerns about the guy, but if there's a team that would take a chance on a bit of a headcase WR with boatloads of talent, it'd probably be the Steelers.  They could use a replacement for the previous headcase that they just dealt away, and Tomlin has shown that he can often get these types on the rails for at least a little while before it implodes.  There's bigtime sneaky athletic upside and speed, and a ton of smooth, natural receiving ability in general to work with there.

29) Detroit Lions: Nate Wiggins, CB - Clemson.

-Lacking ideal weight, i think the overall talent and "willingness" wins over the Lions when it comes to Wiggins.  They need more help in the secondary and despite weight about a buck fiddy without a lot of reason to believe he'll ever fill out to "big corner" size...he's got plenty of length and doesn't play shy, with tons of upside as an impact DB.

30) Baltimore Ravens: Tyler Guyton, OT - Oklahoma.

-It's hard to imagine the Ravens could go into the season with what they currently have at OT.  They're also an organization that seems capable of taking a bit of an unusual or project Tackle and turning them into a quality starter.  The size and ridiculous dancing bear fluid easy movement ability with Guyton is just too much to turn down here.  

31) San Francisco 49ers: Zack Frazier, IOL - West Virginia.

-A bit of a shot in the dark, but Frazier seems like the sort of OLineman built to thrive in that sort of Shanny system.  He's strong and balanced, but also smart, aware, and can really get out on the move as well.  Questionable if he'll have full Interior OLine versatility or if he's a straight up Center, but in that scheme, i think the versatility would be there.  And keeping that strong and deep is important to making the scheme work.

32) Kansas City Chiefs: Xavier Worthy, WR - Texas.

-Plenty of different flavors of WR to choose from here and they ultimately may just go another direction entirely (depending on how some legal situations are looking to those in the know)...but Andy has often seem drawn to guys with electric speed at the receiving positions.  He doesn't have the most reliable hands in the world, but he's not as bad as guys like MVS either...and he's actually got some reasonable diversity of application, not just a pure gadget player with elite track speed as he's often pigeonholed.

[43M]

Awful Steelers pick.  Pairing him with Pickens in the locker room would be a disaster.   

I like the trade, even though they'd likely take Latham or Fautanu ay 20.

Give us Frazier with the trade down.

[Tugboat]

20 minutes ago, 43M said:

Awful Steelers pick.  Pairing him with Pickens in the locker room would be a disaster.   

I like the trade, even though they'd likely take Latham or Fautanu ay 20.

Give us Frazier with the trade down.

Fair enough.  It's also entirely plausible that Tomlin has just had his fill of dealing with that kind of thing.  Though again, i'm not altogether sure how much stock to put in the AD Mitchell character stuff vs how much is someone wanting him to fall.  Awfully convenient to have it suddenly pop up just before the draft.  😆  He's also just ultra talented, and i can see a world where his game and attitude actually really jives with Russ cooking.

My thinking was that the Stillers have had a pretty decent track record of getting a lot out of later pick OLinemen.  And as much as this draft is deep at WR too, it might even be deeper at OLine, especially Interior OLine.  Could always come back around for a really darn good Center prospect like Puni, Van Pran, Limmer on Day2.  They're also one of the handful of teams i'd have a little bit of confidence in to develop a guy like Blake Fisher or Kingsley or get a lot out of a Patrick Paul type at Tackle with a Day2 Pick.  That's where i wish i'd got around to things earlier and had time to flesh things out a bit more with those other picks.  But c'est la vie.

 

But i'd definitely take that under consideration if i actually had time to work through the deeper mock i'd intended, and get started on revisions.

[THE DUKE]

Maybe after a trade down if their other targets are gone.  Barton would be a limited upgrade over Cordell Volson at LG as a rookie.  Newton, Murphy, or Kool Aid all seem much more likely.  Even if they were to prioritize IOL (something they don't do often), I think it would be JPJ over Barton.

[ttitansfan4life]

Probably the worst case scenario for the Titans with Alt and Nabers gone. Oli would be a solid. Rome would also make a really good pick.

[TedLavie]

I don't know if Worthy is a target for us. Maybe it's copium, but I would think that with Brown the only wideout who provide insurances for next year, do we really want to grab his clone? 

[TankWilliams]

Anything could happen, but if I were calling the shots for the Bears, there's no chance I'm trading out of 9 if Odunze or Nabers are there.

[The Gnat]

I'm assuming that isn't the Vikings 2025 1st round pick going to the Chargers in 2025. If that's the case, I'm cool with that.

[Louis Friend]

I appreciate all the thought and effort you put into this mock. 
 

I hate the Lions pick. 

[Daniel]

While Fashanu is who I would probably pick in this situation, all the smoke is that the Titans are picking Latham or Alt.

[INbengalfan]

3 hours ago, THE DUKE said:

Maybe after a trade down if their other targets are gone.  Barton would be a limited upgrade over Cordell Volson at LG as a rookie.  Newton, Murphy, or Kool Aid all seem much more likely.  Even if they were to prioritize IOL (something they don't do often), I think it would be JPJ over Barton.

Add Latham to the list of players I'd prefer at 18, along with Murphy and Newton.

 

To the OP, I like that you tried some different routes.

[scar988]

6 hours ago, Tugboat said:

ATL #8 to DEN for #12, 2025 Pick.

Which 2025 pick? their 1st? Their 2nd?

6 hours ago, Tugboat said:

12) Atlanta Falcons (from Denver): Dallas Turner, EDGE - Bama.

-Moving down, picking up extra draft capital...and still having their pick of the defensive players is a perfect scenario for Atlanta.  Lots of directions they could go here depending on preference between the top Edge rushers and the top DBs, but i think they pull the trigger on arguably the highest upside Rush LBer prospect and circle back in what is a very deep looking CB class.

Sold on this concept. Just want to know the exact compensation for the trade down.

[Acgott]

Love the Giants trade, but it’s for Maye.