2024 Day 3 NFL Draft Thread

[R T]

1 hour ago, HighCalebR said:

I don't think we're in the business of letting good players out the door.. we can bend the cap to accomodate. you say marginal but currently Myers is our 3rd best OL. Slaton is at worst in contention for 3rd as well. We're not strapped for cash. 

Could we let them hit FA and get outbid and go a different direction from there? Sure, don't see us just opening the door and giving them the sayonara.

Think this is kind of spot on. GMs are going to keep as many good players as possible when the cap allows it. They have one eye on the future, but it is mostly about the current year. Ignoring the here and now while looking to the future leads to GMs who will have no future. 

[craig]

Will be interesting for sure.  We want all of our young guys to turn out well, but we know that if they do, we won't be able to keep them all. 

1. Anticipating now who will need to go later, that's beyond my scope. 
2. But yeah, we're going to have no choice but to let some variably useful guys go.  Love won't be on rookie-contract anymore, so it's going to get tough.  
3. GM's with contending rosters and cap-challenges, they are always blending Nowacrat urgency with awareness of future implications.  But Gute's going to be heavily Nowacrat for the next four seasons.
4. Gute has done a lot of void-year stuff to backload cap costs from late ARod years.  I assume we'll see lots more of that kind of stuff. 
5. Love won't be the only guy where Gute is trying to push it back to year 5.  I think they're going to just do the best they can within this 4-year window of opportunity, and after that, improvise as best they can.
6. I'm naive on compensation rubrics, but isn't draft round a significant part of that, in addition to the $$$?  From that perspective, all else equal, if you have two comparably good players, one early-round and other 3rd-day, might there be some tie-break logic in keeping the late-round guy and letting the high-rounder go? 
7. Tie-break logic is totally hypothetical, of course, since players never really are "tie" either in terms of quality or fit.  But, for example, if you figure you'll not elect to pay both Slaton and Wyatt full-market price for 2nd contracts, might there be some strategic value in paying market for Slaton but electing to not offer full market for Wyatt?  Maybe Wyatt will get you a better comp pick?  

[Mazrimiv]

54 minutes ago, R T said:

Think this is kind of spot on. GMs are going to keep as many good players as possible when the cap allows it. They have one eye on the future, but it is mostly about the current year. Ignoring the here and now while looking to the future leads to GMs who will have no future. 

Yep.  If GM's only paid the guys who fans deemed "worth" paying, the rosters would need to be reduced from 53 to roughly 5 players.

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, R T said:

Think this is kind of spot on. GMs are going to keep as many good players as possible when the cap allows it. They have one eye on the future, but it is mostly about the current year. Ignoring the here and now while looking to the future leads to GMs who will have no future. 

I feel like I'm hoping against hope, or against the odds here.

But in terms of our youngers guys and extensions, my sincere hope is that we are able to lock up one or two of them on "Dean Lowry" type deals.  Betting on the come.  Get a young kid or two locked in before they really break out and cost major coin.  Course Lowry never broke out, but I'm hoping we try that strategy again.

Doubs would be a guy that I'd target like that.

And there's no way I'm giving top 5 C money to Meyers.  Also?  I'd give him top 1/3 (top 10ish) money for him.  He ain't elite.  But the guy seems to work well with Love and he can really move for such a large man.  Also?  In my heart of hearts, I feel that GB can use a draft pick and replace Meyers and get very similar production.

[AlexGreen#20]

33 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

Yep.  If GM's only paid the guys who fans deemed "worth" paying, the rosters would need to be reduced from 53 to roughly 5 players.

I feel like that's relative to this board though. Your average bar stool fan wants everybody resigned except for their 2 or 3 designated whipping boys. 

[R T]

14 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I feel like I'm hoping against hope, or against the odds here.

But in terms of our youngers guys and extensions, my sincere hope is that we are able to lock up one or two of them on "Dean Lowry" type deals.  Betting on the come.  Get a young kid or two locked in before they really break out and cost major coin.  Course Lowry never broke out, but I'm hoping we try that strategy again.

Doubs would be a guy that I'd target like that.

And there's no way I'm giving top 5 C money to Meyers.  Also?  I'd give him top 1/3 (top 10ish) money for him.  He ain't elite.  But the guy seems to work well with Love and he can really move for such a large man.  Also?  In my heart of hearts, I feel that GB can use a draft pick and replace Meyers and get very similar production.

The player that is most interesting to me is Stokes, if he remains injury free and balls out like a number one CB, do the Packers tag him and try and sign him to a long-term deal? If he balls out, he will get elite CB money.  

[AlexGreen#20]

16 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I feel like I'm hoping against hope, or against the odds here.

But in terms of our youngers guys and extensions, my sincere hope is that we are able to lock up one or two of them on "Dean Lowry" type deals.  Betting on the come.  Get a young kid or two locked in before they really break out and cost major coin.  Course Lowry never broke out, but I'm hoping we try that strategy again.

Doubs would be a guy that I'd target like that.

And there's no way I'm giving top 5 C money to Meyers.  Also?  I'd give him top 1/3 (top 10ish) money for him.  He ain't elite.  But the guy seems to work well with Love and he can really move for such a large man.  Also?  In my heart of hearts, I feel that GB can use a draft pick and replace Meyers and get very similar production.

The interesting thing about NFL FA is at the rate of inflation, Top 5 guys get Top 1 money. Top 10 guys get Top 5 money, and Top 15 guys get Top 10 money. Then, Top 20 guys sign for backup money. 

It's not hard to justify bringing Myers back. Just as it's not hard moving on. Money is going to drive that one. 

[incognito_man]

20 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I feel like I'm hoping against hope, or against the odds here.

But in terms of our youngers guys and extensions, my sincere hope is that we are able to lock up one or two of them on "Dean Lowry" type deals.  Betting on the come.  Get a young kid or two locked in before they really break out and cost major coin.  Course Lowry never broke out, but I'm hoping we try that strategy again.

Doubs would be a guy that I'd target like that.

And there's no way I'm giving top 5 C money to Meyers.  Also?  I'd give him top 1/3 (top 10ish) money for him.  He ain't elite.  But the guy seems to work well with Love and he can really move for such a large man.  Also?  In my heart of hearts, I feel that GB can use a draft pick and replace Meyers and get very similar production.

Monk's development throughout the year and the $ will determine Myers future here for sure.

We're in the habit of giving ourselves options (to our benefit). This is another prime example of that.

[Old Guy]

8 hours ago, HighCalebR said:

Tom needs a deal, rasheed walks. If Wyatt needs a big deal his major cap hits after Kenny's deal is up. All the receivers aren't going to require top end money, and if they are you only pay one or 2 anyways, we're never signing all 4 if they all continue on their trajectory. Musgrave and Kraft are TEs. We can make one of their moneys work. Jaire isn't up for 2 years. And then you push his bigger cap hits farther out if they want to sign a 29 year old undersized corner to a 3rd contract 

Jacobs and keiseans money will come open in 2/3 years. We've got like 10m to play with easy right now with 50m dead.

I don't think we're in the business of letting good players out the door.. we can bend the cap to accomodate. you say marginal but currently Myers is our 3rd best OL. Slaton is at worst in contention for 3rd as well. We're not strapped for cash. 

Could we let them hit FA and get outbid and go a different direction from there? Sure, don't see us just opening the door and giving them the sayonara.

I've got the o-line as: Tom, Jenkins, Walker, Myers in that order. If Myers is ranked in the middle of the center pack, which I think he is, that to me is marginal. I've been clamoring for an acquisition on the interior of the offensive line. Need a solid vet back up. 

You don't think Brooks is going to pass Slaton this year? That dude just knows how to get to the quarterback. Are you willing to pay a guy the kind of money Slaton will likely get on the open market if he's our 4th best interior defender? I think that is one of those tough decisions a GM makes and doesn't regret. 

Jaire might be up in two years, but he's out of guaranteed money after this year. We all know what happens when top end players run out of guaranteed money. He's going to be asking for sure. 

I am fully willing to admit we may wind up with both Slaton and Myers in 2025. I wouldn't hate it, especially if they are improving. 

I think the bigger point is, as well as Gute has drafted there are going to be some players, as good or better than Myers and Slaton at their position, that we are not going to be able to keep in the next few years.

It happens to every top end roster in football. You just can't pay everybody. 

I am hoping like @R T that Stokes makes it a real tough decision on whether we have to tag him or not. I'd opt for the tag over those two guys in a second. 

 

Edited August 2 by Old Guy

[HighCalebR]

2 hours ago, Old Guy said:

I've got the o-line as: Tom, Jenkins, Walker, Myers in that order. If Myers is ranked in the middle of the center pack, which I think he is, that to me is marginal. I've been clamoring for an acquisition on the interior of the offensive line. Need a solid vet back up. 

You don't think Brooks is going to pass Slaton this year? That dude just knows how to get to the quarterback. Are you willing to pay a guy the kind of money Slaton will likely get on the open market if he's our 4th best interior defender? I think that is one of those tough decisions a GM makes and doesn't regret. 

Jaire might be up in two years, but he's out of guaranteed money after this year. We all know what happens when top end players run out of guaranteed money. He's going to be asking for sure. 

I am fully willing to admit we may wind up with both Slaton and Myers in 2025. I wouldn't hate it, especially if they are improving. 

I think the bigger point is, as well as Gute has drafted there are going to be some players, as good or better than Myers and Slaton at their position, that we are not going to be able to keep in the next few years.

It happens to every top end roster in football. You just can't pay everybody. 

I am hoping like @R T that Stokes may it a real tough decision on whether we have to tag him or not. I'd opt for the tag over those two guys in a second. 

 

Nah they help Walker much more than Myers. Myers is a more complete player.

Brooks is more valuable in that he gets after the passer but I think Slaton is better at his role of being a double team eating plug. Another reason he won't cost that much come re-sign time. 

If jaire asks for more that's fine it'll be an extension that pushes cap hits down the road. 

Unless they're moving Elgton or Tom to center (they're not) they don't have a better player drafted there than Myers.

We absolutely can pay everybody to appropriate contracts at the appropriate spots for roster building. Yes we can't pay 5 pass catchers. But signing both those players is going to cost less than Bakhs dead cap hit this year. And then we still have Aaron's dead top end RB money. And plenty mid level contracts that were paying to people who aren't even here that will clear up after this year. On top of that we have 20+M just sitting right now.

There's just zero reason to not pay productive starters, there's too many loopholes to the cap.

We no longer have the highest cap hits to multiple positions on the roster there's plenty of money.

Edited August 2 by HighCalebR

[Old Guy]

2 minutes ago, HighCalebR said:

Nah they help Walker much more than Myers. Myers is a more complete player.

Brooks is more valuable in that he gets after the passer but I think Slaton is better at his role of being a double team eating plug. Another reason he won't cost that much come re-sign time. 

If jaire asks for more that's fine it'll be an extension that pushes cap hits down the road. 

Unless they're moving Elgton or Tom to center (they're not) they don't have a better player drafted there than Myers.

We absolutely can pay everybody to appropriate contracts at the appropriate spots for roster building. Yes we can't pay 5 pass catchers. But signing both those players is going to cost less than Bakhs dead cap hit this year. And then we still have Aaron's dead top end RB money. And plenty mid level contracts that were paying to people who aren't even here that will clear up after this year.

There's just zero reason to not pay productive starters, there's too many loopholes to the cap.

The bold part is the error in your thinking (in my opinion). Nobody wants an 'appropriate contract.' They all want to be overpaid. Also, as the saying goes your worth what they will give you. 

Some of those guys are going to have to be allowed to walk. Maybe it's no Myers or Slaton, but we ain't keeping them all. 

[HighCalebR]

Just now, Old Guy said:

The bold part is the error in your thinking (in my opinion). Nobody wants an 'appropriate contract.' They all want to be overpaid. Also, as the saying goes your worth what they will give you. 

Some of those guys are going to have to be allowed to walk. Maybe it's no Myers or Slaton, but we ain't keeping them all. 

Yes. If Myers and Slaton want 20m they'll not be in GB. You're correct if that's what we think will happen. 

I don't think either of those players are going to reset their respective markets. Many players still sign to manageable contracts league wide.. not every contract is a franchise contract.  Mitch Morse, a solid comp for Myers just signed an extension for 5m/y. Godchaux, for Slaton, just signed for 10.5m/y

LIS we will lose some WRs a RB and a TE. Preston will be gone. 

You can choose to be worried about the cap. I absolutely won't be. We have plenty of money to pay starters we want to keep around. 

[Old Guy]

18 minutes ago, HighCalebR said:

Yes. If Myers and Slaton want 20m they'll not be in GB. You're correct if that's what we think will happen. 

I don't think either of those players are going to reset their respective markets. Many players still sign to manageable contracts league wide.. not every contract is a franchise contract.  Mitch Morse, a solid comp for Myers just signed an extension for 5m/y. Godchaux, for Slaton, just signed for 10.5m/y

LIS we will lose some WRs a RB and a TE. Preston will be gone. 

You can choose to be worried about the cap. I absolutely won't be. We have plenty of money to pay starters we want to keep around. 

I did not say I was worried about the cap. I trust Russ Ball and Gutey to do that. 

Mitch Morse is 32 and the Bills didn't want him back. Not sure he's a great comp for a 26-year-old center looking for a second contract. 

Why are we going to lose a WR or TE, other than a trade? None of them are free agents after this season. I'm not really counting Tyler Davis because he's likely TE #4 in a three-person rotation. 

Edited August 3 by Old Guy

[HighCalebR]

14 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

I did not say I was worried about the cap. I trust Russ Ball and Gutey to do that. 

Mitch Morse is 32 and the Bills didn't want him back. Not sure he's a great comp for a 26-year-old center looking for a second contract. 

Why are we going to lose a WR or TE, other than a trade? None of them are free agents after this season. I'm not really counting Tyler Davis because he's likely TE #4 in a three-person rotation. 

Not this season. When they're due to be paid. That's just roster construction. 

Alright don't like Morse how about 7m Brewer. Regardless he's a ~10m player. There's room.. literally just had Jaire Rodgers bakh adams and the smiths on one team we don't have near those contracts with the current squad. We can pay starters 2nd contracts.

[Refugee]

8 hours ago, vegas492 said:

I feel like I'm hoping against hope, or against the odds here.

But in terms of our youngers guys and extensions, my sincere hope is that we are able to lock up one or two of them on "Dean Lowry" type deals.  Betting on the come.  Get a young kid or two locked in before they really break out and cost major coin.  Course Lowry never broke out, but I'm hoping we try that strategy again.

Doubs would be a guy that I'd target like that.

And there's no way I'm giving top 5 C money to Meyers.  Also?  I'd give him top 1/3 (top 10ish) money for him.  He ain't elite.  But the guy seems to work well with Love and he can really move for such a large man.  Also?  In my heart of hearts, I feel that GB can use a draft pick and replace Meyers and get very similar production.

I agree about Myers. He’s at a non premium position so we could pay a decent deal for continuity sake but we should always be looking to upgrade. A lot of our guys including Jenkins and Tom are looked at as very good centers although I’m sure they would prefer to play outside.  

For our WR, of course we keep one or two but I think anyone that plays that position well is going to test the market. The contracts there have gotten way out of proportion to the cap and rightfully, every young wideout wants a piece of that action. I don’t think we will lock any of our top guys up for “mid market” deals before they play the field but would be pleasantly surprised if we do. I think we pay high quality RBs, at least one TE and at least one WR but have to find replacements for the rest when the time comes. Hopefully it’s a seamless transition with the draft being nothing but home runs.