2024 Packers Draft Immediate Thoughts

[incognito_man]

Dropping this here too since the consensus board talk was going on:

Name	NFL Team	Consensus Big Board	Actual Pick	% Delta	Rank
Caleb Williams	Chicago	1	1	0%	15
Jayden Daniels	Washington	5	2	-60%	29
Drake Maye	New England	2	3	50%	6
Marvin Harrison Jr.	Arizona	4	4	0%	15
Joe Alt	LA Chargers	10	5	-50%	28
Malik Nabers	NY Giants	3	6	100%	2
JC Latham	Tennessee	19	7	-63%	30
Michael Penix Jr	Atlanta	31	8	-74%	32
Rome Odunze	Chicago	6	9	50%	6
JJ McCarthy	Minnesota	8	10	25%	9
Olu Fashanu	NY Jets	15	11	-27%	25
Bo Nix	Denver	35	12	-66%	31
Brock Bowers	Las Vegas	7	13	86%	4
Taliese Fuaga	New Orleans	16	14	-13%	19
Laiatu Latu	Indianapolis	14	15	7%	13
Byron Murphy II	Seattle	13	16	23%	10
Dallas Turner	Minnesota	9	17	89%	3
Amarius Mims	Cincinnati	22	18	-18%	21
Jared Verse	LA Rams	17	19	12%	12
Troy Fautanu	Pittsburgh	21	20	-5%	18
Chop Robinson	Miami	27	21	-22%	23
Quinyon Mitchell	Philadelphia	12	22	83%	5
Brian Thomas Jr	Jacksonville	20	23	15%	11
Terrion Arnold	Detroit	11	24	118%	1
Jordan Morgan	Green Bay	36	25	-31%	26
Graham Barton	Tampa Bay	25	26	4%	14
Darius Robinson	Arizona	34	27	-21%	22
Xavier Worthy	Kansas City	32	28	-13%	19
Tyler Guyton	Dallas	29	29	0%	15
Nate Wiggins	Baltimore	23	30	30%	8
Ricky Pearsall	San Francisco	48	31	-35%	27
Xavier Legette	Carolina	42	32	-24%	24

[Packerraymond]

I still find our board strange that we didn't have Mitchell or Arnold in a spot where a trade up was desired. Sounds like Gute stopped trying to trade up somewhere in the teens. Feel pretty confident had Mitchell and/or Arnold made it to 25, we are still picking Morgan. I always try to view it through their eyes, but I just can't see it in this instance. 

[craig]

It's probably been mentioned in one of the various threads.  But Cooper DeJean was pick 40, when we were sitting at 41.  In press conference after day 2, Gute said the trade-down from 41 to 45 was actually made a couple picks ahead.  Of course maybe that was contingent, and perhaps had DeJean been available Gute would have picked him and scrapped the trade.  But the way Gute said it, it sounded like the trade was made and decided before DeJean was even gone, suggesting that Gute didn't really want him anyway.  

[Arthur Penske]

2 hours ago, incognito_man said:

Dropping this here too since the consensus board talk was going on:

 

Name	NFL Team	Consensus Big Board	Actual Pick	% Delta	Rank
Caleb Williams	Chicago	1	1	0%	15
Jayden Daniels	Washington	5	2	-60%	29
Drake Maye	New England	2	3	50%	6
Marvin Harrison Jr.	Arizona	4	4	0%	15
Joe Alt	LA Chargers	10	5	-50%	28
Malik Nabers	NY Giants	3	6	100%	2
JC Latham	Tennessee	19	7	-63%	30
Michael Penix Jr	Atlanta	31	8	-74%	32
Rome Odunze	Chicago	6	9	50%	6
JJ McCarthy	Minnesota	8	10	25%	9
Olu Fashanu	NY Jets	15	11	-27%	25
Bo Nix	Denver	35	12	-66%	31
Brock Bowers	Las Vegas	7	13	86%	4
Taliese Fuaga	New Orleans	16	14	-13%	19
Laiatu Latu	Indianapolis	14	15	7%	13
Byron Murphy II	Seattle	13	16	23%	10
Dallas Turner	Minnesota	9	17	89%	3
Amarius Mims	Cincinnati	22	18	-18%	21
Jared Verse	LA Rams	17	19	12%	12
Troy Fautanu	Pittsburgh	21	20	-5%	18
Chop Robinson	Miami	27	21	-22%	23
Quinyon Mitchell	Philadelphia	12	22	83%	5
Brian Thomas Jr	Jacksonville	20	23	15%	11
Terrion Arnold	Detroit	11	24	118%	1
Jordan Morgan	Green Bay	36	25	-31%	26
Graham Barton	Tampa Bay	25	26	4%	14
Darius Robinson	Arizona	34	27	-21%	22
Xavier Worthy	Kansas City	32	28	-13%	19
Tyler Guyton	Dallas	29	29	0%	15
Nate Wiggins	Baltimore	23	30	30%	8
Ricky Pearsall	San Francisco	48	31	-35%	27
Xavier Legette	Carolina	42	32	-24%	24

Has anyone ever tracked how well the consensus big board correlates with success?

[Refugee]

Just now, Arthur Penske said:

Has anyone ever tracked how well the consensus big board correlates with success?

Only for TJ Watt. 

[squire12]

23 minutes ago, Refugee said:

Only for TJ Watt. 

Kevin King was consensus 35, Watt was 36.  GB followed the consensus and .....
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2017/consensus-big-board-2017

[craig]

Heh heh, Packers took Josh Jones at 61, consensus 66. So that wasn't much of a reach, either.  :):)

[incognito_man]

45 minutes ago, craig said:

It's probably been mentioned in one of the various threads.  But Cooper DeJean was pick 40, when we were sitting at 41.  In press conference after day 2, Gute said the trade-down from 41 to 45 was actually made a couple picks ahead.  Of course maybe that was contingent, and perhaps had DeJean been available Gute would have picked him and scrapped the trade.  But the way Gute said it, it sounded like the trade was made and decided before DeJean was even gone, suggesting that Gute didn't really want him anyway.  

He may very well have been in the same tower as Cooper (and others) which, when collectively available, prompted a trade back. But I don't think he was someone we were heavily targeting or had ranked higher than many other teams 

[Refugee]

22 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Kevin King was consensus 35, Watt was 36.  GB followed the consensus and .....
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2017/consensus-big-board-2017

While that maybe true for an average of many consensus boards, it was not the Packers fans’ board.  I think TT was just a bit ornery with some of his picks, “No one tells me what to do!” I loved the guy’s personality and body of work but a few of his later picks felt like him trying to outsmart the field. 

[OneTwoSixFive]

3 minutes ago, Refugee said:

While that maybe true for an average of many consensus boards, it was not the Packers fans’ board.  I think TT was just a bit ornery with some of his picks, “No one tells me what to do!” I loved the guy’s personality and body of work but a few of his later picks felt like him trying to outsmart the field. 

I never got that sense from him at all. Just a very private person that apparently enjoyed grinding tape. I'd say his success rate was solid, by which I mean above the average, until his autonomic disorder kicked in.

[Refugee]

30 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

I never got that sense from him at all. Just a very private person that apparently enjoyed grinding tape. I'd say his success rate was solid, by which I mean above the average, until his autonomic disorder kicked in.

I certainly don’t mean he was spiteful, but I loved his take, “sometimes I’m the only inside information and I’m not telling anybody.”  I just mean he tried to pick a few guys and project them into a position they hadn’t played yet with low success at the end. Kind of an I’m smarter than the market kind of move. Randall, Q. Rollins, Josh Jones all seemed like guys he hoped would play in different way than they did in college but hoped they could be malleable enough to fit. Kevin King it was just hopeful he could stay healthy and play tall, strong boundary corner. Didn’t work out but we had a need there.

I’m not one to beat a dead horse but wonder where they had TJ Watt that year. He was a pretty promising athlete and seeing how hard his brother worked for it had to at least count for something in the character evaluation. obviously the hometown favorite but he had a lot to like to make him a very real possibility where we could have had him in the draft.

I like that we didn’t have any glaring holes this year going into the draft. It helps to not be trying to plug holes strictly with rookies. The safety position was addressed aggressively and with any luck McKinney is amazing for a few years and his replacement is already here but has to develop. 

Edited May 4 by Refugee

[LLcheesehead12]

On 5/3/2024 at 6:36 PM, Old Guy said:

Why are the Chiefs getting such rave reviews for their draft! Everybody is raving about them getting Xavier Worthy. Time will tell but the hype is overboard. 

To me I feel like it's more like they've taken over the Patriots spot as being the new golden calf team so their picks kinda become automatic winners.

They probably figure Worthy is the new Tyreek Hill so he's getting that hype now.

[OneTwoSixFive]

11 hours ago, Refugee said:

I like that we didn’t have any glaring holes this year going into the draft. It helps to not be trying to plug holes strictly with rookies. The safety position was addressed aggressively and with any luck McKinney is amazing for a few years and his replacement is already here but has to develop. 

I would agree that Gute has knocked the last two drafts out of the park which helps with better starters and as important, better depth. A way above average return on investment. If he lands this draft as well (and I like his choices a lot this year) it should really solidify this team to a point where, as you say, there are no serious weaknesses anywhere. That doesn't tend to happen very often.

Gute has some TT traits (unsurprising since he learned under TT) but though he is far from profligate if FA, he will add guys to shore up weaknesses when needed, in particular before a draft, to give himself more flexibility during the draft.

Gute is also more willing to occasionally take on higher tier guys than Ted, ones with a higher cap hit, see Jacobs and McKinney this year and further in the past, the Smiths. These are not 3rd and 4th tier players, unlike a more Ted type pickup of Dillard at a minimum wage.

I'd say Gute's early drafts were not all that good, but his later ones have been.

Regarding Ted taking players that didn't succeed or were played in different positions to where their strengths lay, there may be some truth in that, but equally, Ted may have had the philosophy that he gets (what he thinks are) good players, then lets the coaching staff decide where and how to use them and they let him down somewhat. Either or both could be true and add to the outright draft failures every GM has. 

I think this is similar to Gute's philosophy, get good players in and let the coaches do what they will with them.........but maybe Gute is more in tune with what the coaches want.

Edited May 5 by OneTwoSixFive

[OneTwoSixFive]

15 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

I still find our board strange that we didn't have Mitchell or Arnold in a spot where a trade up was desired. Sounds like Gute stopped trying to trade up somewhere in the teens. Feel pretty confident had Mitchell and/or Arnold made it to 25, we are still picking Morgan. I always try to view it through their eyes, but I just can't see it in this instance. 

The answer may be as simple as "After Morgan (and maybe Guyton) there is a big drop to the next tier of OTs, so we will get one before they run out". Six OTs had already gone before pick 25 if you count Fautanu as one. I wonder when the last time was that so many went that early. 8 OTs in round one is surely exceptional. You could even claim 9 if you added Barton, which I didn't.

After Guyton, OTs Paul, Fisher, Rosengarten and Suamataia all went between picks 55 and 63. Apart from Suamataia (44 on the consensus board and maybe overvalued there), Paul was 68th prospect, Fisher 78th, Rosengarten 80th, so you might feel they were slightly overdrafted due to the pressure on teams to get a player at least somewhat competent, there.

Edited May 5 by OneTwoSixFive

[R T]

Christl nails it with his first answer here. 

Kudos to NFL Network’s draft coverage compared to ESPN’s (packers.com)