2024 Packers Draft Immediate Thoughts

[R T]

8 hours ago, ReasonablySober said:

Packers were talking with Seattle about moving up but bowed out as the Seattle was coming up. Fuaga and Latu went right before Seattle came on the clock.

This makes a lot of since if you believe that the Packers don't leak anything that they don't want leaked. Before the draft was the 'Tom would be a HOF center' leak, which might have been the Packers softening the public criticizing for trading up to take a RT.  

Edited May 3 by R T

[packfanfb]

During his presser, Gute mentioned that trading up wasn't in the cards once a "few guys didn't fall" or something to that effect. If you believe the Packers were hot after a OL and were obviously focused more on OT than IOL (judging by them passing on Barton in favor of Morgan), I think they probably were watching Fashanu and Fuaga. 

I think an interesting question (one that we'll never know for sure), is whether the Packers would have taken Fautanu at 25 over Morgan? Fantanu has the length and experience at LT, but was a tad short (not sure if that would have mattered to Gute or not). 

Edited May 3 by packfanfb

[VonKarman]

28 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

This is the most likely answer. 

The way that article was written it seems like we were out a few picks before it got to 16, so Fashanu is the most probable answer. Besides, I think that we tend to read a bit too much into this thresholds (Gute has shown to ignore them with premium picks like Jaire). Also, hand size is not important for pass protection, which is what we target mostly, it matters more for run blocking.

[AlexGreen#20]

Just now, packfanfb said:

During his presser, Gute mentioned that trading up wasn't in the cards once a "few guys didn't fall" or something to that effect. If you believe the Packers were hot after a OL and were obviously focused more on OT than IOL (judging by them passing on Barton in favor of Morgan), I think they probably were watching Fashanu and Fuaga. 

I think an interesting question (one that we'll never know for sure), is whether the Packers would have taken Fautanu at 25 over Morgan? Fantanu has the length and experience at LT, but was a tad short (not sure if that would have mattered to Gute or not). 

I think you need to look at the ceilings of those two guys to have your answer. 

Fautanu is a less risky pick overall. He projects easier inside to Guard with his better natural strength, in case Tackle doesn't work out, so there's less risk of a complete and total bust. 

But he doesn't have the ceiling that comes with the elite feet. 

[Chili]

2 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Citation needed

Ask and ye shall receive.

Hands Size:

Morgan - 10 7/8" (11" if you use his pro day measurement) - 1st round
Jenkins - 10 1/4" - 2rd round
Tom - 10 3/8" - 4th round
Myers - 10 3/8" - 2nd round
Rhyan - 11 1/8" - 3rd round
Walker - 10 5/8 - 7th round
Monk - 10" - 5th round
Madison - 10 3/8" - 5th round
Stepaniak - 10 3/8" - 6th round
T.Jones - 10 1/8" - Undrafted
Nijman - 10 1/8" - Undrafted
Light - 11 1/4" - Undrafted
Tentua - 10 1/8" - 6th round (not our draft pick, was picked up later off waivers)
Kofi Amichia - 10 1/8" - 6th round (TT pick but I suspect Gute ran that draft)

Outliers:
Runyan - 9 1/8" - 6th round
Newman - 9" - 4th round
C.Jones - 9 1/2" - Undrafted
Glover - 9 3/4" - 6th round
Jennings - 9 1/4" - Undrafted
Telfort - 8 1/2" - Undrafted
Van Lanen - 9 3/4" - 6th round
Hanson - 9 1/4" - 6th round
Dietzen - 9 3/8" - Undrafted
Austin Davis - 9 1/8" - Undrafted
Zach Johnson - 9 5/8" - Undrafted

 

In the Gute era the Packers clearly made it a point to draft OL with hands over 10". The vast majority of OL coming out of college tend to be in the 9"+ range and yet somehow the Packers keep selecting those with over 10"+ hands. Coincidence or intentional targeting?

They tend to relax on those parameters from 6th round to UDFA. Newman was the only one they broke the rules for.

I know Bakhtiari has 9 1/2" hands but Gute did not draft him. TT did. I'm interested to see how TT OL hand sizes compares to Gutes. I'm not gonna do it now as this post took alot of work! 🤣

Edit: Another interesting note, Packers fans often gripe about why we chose Myers over Humphery. Guess what Humphery hand size is......yep, it's 9 1/2". Hand size is a big deal for them.

All this is why I don't think the Packers would've traded up for Fashanu had he fell to #16 as his hands are only 8 1/2", that's crazy small. I would be much more likely to believe we would trade up for Fuaga despite the fact he's a RT.

Edited May 3 by Chili

[wgbeethree]

21 minutes ago, Chili said:

Edit: Another interesting note, Packers fans often gripe why we chose Myers over Humphery. Guess what Humphery hand size is......yep, it's 9 1/2".

Creed is also left handed. That doesn't seem like a big deal but I bet it is. 

[AlexGreen#20]

30 minutes ago, Chili said:

Ask and ye shall receive.

Hands Size:

Morgan - 10 7/8" (11" if you use his pro day measurement) - 1st round
Jenkins - 10 1/4" - 2rd round
Tom - 10 3/8" - 4th round
Myers - 10 3/8" - 2nd round
Rhyan - 11 1/8" - 3rd round
Walker - 10 5/8 - 7th round
Monk - 10" - 5th round
Madison - 10 3/8" - 5th round
Stepaniak - 10 3/8" - 6th round
T.Jones - 10 1/8" - Undrafted
Nijman - 10 1/8" - Undrafted
Light - 11 1/4" - Undrafted
Tentua - 10 1/8" - 6th round (not our draft pick, was picked up later off waivers)
Kofi Amichia - 10 1/8" - 6th round (TT pick but I suspect Gute ran that draft)

Outliers:
Runyan - 9 1/8" - 6th round
Newman - 9" - 4th round
C.Jones - 9 1/2" - Undrafted
Glover - 9 3/4" - 6th round
Jennings - 9 1/4" - Undrafted
Telfort - 8 1/2" - Undrafted
Van Lanen - 9 3/4" - 6th round
Hanson - 9 1/4" - 6th round
Dietzen - 9 3/8" - Undrafted
Austin Davis - 9 1/8" - Undrafted
Zach Johnson - 9 5/8" - Undrafted

 

In the Gute era the Packers clearly made it a point to draft OL with hands over 10". The vast majority of OL coming out of college tend to be in the 9"+ range and yet somehow the Packers keep selecting those with over 10"+ hands. Coincidence or intentional targeting?

They tend to relax on those parameters from 6th round to UDFA. Newman was the only one they broke the rules for.

I know Bakhtiari has 9 1/2" hands but Gute did not draft him. TT did. I'm interested to see how TT OL hand sizes compares to Gutes. I'm not gonna do it now as this post took alot of work! 🤣

Edit: Another interesting note, Packers fans often gripe about why we chose Myers over Humphery. Guess what Humphery hand size is......yep, it's 9 1/2". Hand size is a big deal for them.

All this is why I don't think the Packers would've traded up for Fashanu had he fell to #16 as his hands are only 8 1/2", that's crazy small. I would be much more likely to believe we would trade up for Fuaga despite the fact he's a RT.

This does not remotely suggest that the Packers are obsessed with hand size. 

You have 13 data points in your group and 11 in your outlier group. 

Assuming Newman cancels out Tom and you remove all the lower picks, your sample size is 4 picks. This is not a robust study. Certainly not enough to claim an obsession.

 

[Refugee]

2 hours ago, R T said:

This makes a lot of since if you believe that the Packers don't leak anything that they don't want leaked. Before the draft was the 'Tom would be a HOF center' leak, which might have been the Packers softening the public criticizing for trading up to take a RT.  

Gute was pretty pleased when he said it didn’t get out that Enagbare didn’t have surgery. It’s a fairly minor detail in the grand scheme of the draft but one that would factor in if you were trying to figure out what direction GB might go with a pick. Keeping the circle small and everyone form players, to medical staff to agents quiet is actually pretty impressive in this age we live in. 

[Chili]

2 hours ago, R T said:

This makes a lot of since if you believe that the Packers don't leak anything that they don't want leaked. Before the draft was the 'Tom would be a HOF center' leak, which might have been the Packers softening the public criticizing for trading up to take a RT.  

Nice thought! Sometimes NFL teams have to engage in a bit of PR in order to protect themselves from blowback due to a possible controversal decision.

Fuaga being a RT and fans would be going WTF! we traded up for a freaking RT. BOOOOOOO!

Edited May 3 by Chili

[Chili]

12 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

This does not remotely suggest that the Packers are obsessed with hand size. 

You have 13 data points in your group and 11 in your outlier group. 

Assuming Newman cancels out Tom and you remove all the lower picks, your sample size is 4 picks. This is not a robust study. Certainly not enough to claim an obsession.

Well obviously. You just got rid of all the data to suit your narrative 🤣 🤣 🤣 NO DATA! SAMPLE SIZE TOO SMALL! 🤣 🤣 🤣

All I done is collect all the draft picks and UDFAs Gute brought in and put their hand sizes in a list.

A pattern starts to form, when we invest a draft pick on an OL within the first 5 rounds we tend to get players with a hand size of 10"+.

As the draft goes on, the pool of player to choose from gets smaller so naturally the Packers relaxes their hand sizes to 9"+ and you see that more often from 6th round onwards to UDFA.

Very simple.

[AlexGreen#20]

25 minutes ago, Chili said:

Well obviously. You just got rid of all the data to suit your narrative 🤣 🤣 🤣 NO DATA! SAMPLE SIZE TOO SMALL! 🤣 🤣 🤣

All I done is collect all the draft picks and UDFAs Gute brought in and put their hand sizes in a list.

A pattern starts to form, when we invest a draft pick on an OL within the first 5 rounds we tend to get players with a hand size of 10"+.

As the draft goes on, the pool of player to choose from gets smaller so naturally the Packers relaxes their hand sizes to 9"+ and you see that more often from 6th round onwards to UDFA.

Very simple.

1. There are more guys in the 5th round and on who have smaller hands than guys who do not. Of course you would remove that sample size as it's blatantly nothing to do with anything and just noise in the data. 

2. Going off of 2022 data, the average combine measured offensive lineman has a hand size of 10.06 inches (Call it 10-1/8 for convenience). That same data set has a standard deviation of .511862 inches (Call it 1/2")

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2022-nfl-scouting-combine-offensive-line-measurements-hand-size-and-more-from-day-2-of-workouts/

This creates a normally distributed +/- 1 STDV bracket of 9-5/8 to 10-5/8. You would expect to see 68% (16/24) of the Packers acquisitions fall within that band. You would expect to see 4 guys fall below it, and 4 guys come in above it. 

Looking at the data you have 

3 guys above it: Morgan, Rhyan, Light

14 guys within it: Jenkins, Thom, Myers, Walker, Monk, Madison, Stepaniak, T. Jones, Nijman, Tenuta, Glover, Van Lanen, Dietzen, Johnson                                    

7 guys below it: Tunyan, Newman, C. Jones, Jennings, Telfort, Hanson, Davis

If anything there are MORE guys on this list with smaller hand sizes than you would expect.

+++

There are of course obvious issues with this data, the combine probably has a slightly average bigger handsize than the UDFA pool which leads to some differentiation and is the cause of some of the disparity here.

+++

What you are VERY likely seeing is that the Packers prefer to draft Tackles and move them inside. Tackles are naturally taller and tend to have bigger hand sizes. 

You're seeing a preferance for length and confusing it with a preference for handsize. 

[incognito_man]

2 hours ago, Chili said:

Ask and ye shall receive.

Hands Size:

Morgan - 10 7/8" (11" if you use his pro day measurement) - 1st round
Jenkins - 10 1/4" - 2rd round
Tom - 10 3/8" - 4th round
Myers - 10 3/8" - 2nd round
Rhyan - 11 1/8" - 3rd round
Walker - 10 5/8 - 7th round
Monk - 10" - 5th round
Madison - 10 3/8" - 5th round
Stepaniak - 10 3/8" - 6th round
T.Jones - 10 1/8" - Undrafted
Nijman - 10 1/8" - Undrafted
Light - 11 1/4" - Undrafted
Tentua - 10 1/8" - 6th round (not our draft pick, was picked up later off waivers)
Kofi Amichia - 10 1/8" - 6th round (TT pick but I suspect Gute ran that draft)

Outliers:
Runyan - 9 1/8" - 6th round
Newman - 9" - 4th round
C.Jones - 9 1/2" - Undrafted
Glover - 9 3/4" - 6th round
Jennings - 9 1/4" - Undrafted
Telfort - 8 1/2" - Undrafted
Van Lanen - 9 3/4" - 6th round
Hanson - 9 1/4" - 6th round
Dietzen - 9 3/8" - Undrafted
Austin Davis - 9 1/8" - Undrafted
Zach Johnson - 9 5/8" - Undrafted

 

In the Gute era the Packers clearly made it a point to draft OL with hands over 10". The vast majority of OL coming out of college tend to be in the 9"+ range and yet somehow the Packers keep selecting those with over 10"+ hands. Coincidence or intentional targeting?

They tend to relax on those parameters from 6th round to UDFA. Newman was the only one they broke the rules for.

I know Bakhtiari has 9 1/2" hands but Gute did not draft him. TT did. I'm interested to see how TT OL hand sizes compares to Gutes. I'm not gonna do it now as this post took alot of work! 🤣

Edit: Another interesting note, Packers fans often gripe about why we chose Myers over Humphery. Guess what Humphery hand size is......yep, it's 9 1/2". Hand size is a big deal for them.

All this is why I don't think the Packers would've traded up for Fashanu had he fell to #16 as his hands are only 8 1/2", that's crazy small. I would be much more likely to believe we would trade up for Fuaga despite the fact he's a RT.

you have as many "outliers" as you do "standard" data points lol

[Packerraymond]

53 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

1. There are more guys in the 5th round and on who have smaller hands than guys who do not. Of course you would remove that sample size as it's blatantly nothing to do with anything and just noise in the data. 

2. Going off of 2022 data, the average combine measured offensive lineman has a hand size of 10.06 inches (Call it 10-1/8 for convenience). That same data set has a standard deviation of .511862 inches (Call it 1/2")

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2022-nfl-scouting-combine-offensive-line-measurements-hand-size-and-more-from-day-2-of-workouts/

This creates a normally distributed +/- 1 STDV bracket of 9-5/8 to 10-5/8. You would expect to see 68% (16/24) of the Packers acquisitions fall within that band. You would expect to see 4 guys fall below it, and 4 guys come in above it. 

Looking at the data you have 

3 guys above it: Morgan, Rhyan, Light

14 guys within it: Jenkins, Thom, Myers, Walker, Monk, Madison, Stepaniak, T. Jones, Nijman, Tenuta, Glover, Van Lanen, Dietzen, Johnson                                    

7 guys below it: Tunyan, Newman, C. Jones, Jennings, Telfort, Hanson, Davis

If anything there are MORE guys on this list with smaller hand sizes than you would expect.

+++

There are of course obvious issues with this data, the combine probably has a slightly average bigger handsize than the UDFA pool which leads to some differentiation and is the cause of some of the disparity here.

+++

What you are VERY likely seeing is that the Packers prefer to draft Tackles and move them inside. Tackles are naturally taller and tend to have bigger hand sizes. 

You're seeing a preferance for length and confusing it with a preference for handsize. 

I wouldn't say length either, as we've got the shortest collection of OT arm length in the NFL with Walker, Tom, Morgan.

The Packers prioritize movement skills over drive skills, every team puts their best movers at either OT or C, centers are often the least position versatile which is probably trait 1B that we look for outside of movement skills/feet. Therefore we pick a ton of tackles, which generally have the largest hands among the OL.

Hand size is probably like 6-7th on the thing we look for. Have over 9" hands? yup we're good then. 

[thrILL!]

7 hours ago, R T said:

This makes a lot of since if you believe that the Packers don't leak anything that they don't want leaked. Before the draft was the 'Tom would be a HOF center' leak, which might have been the Packers softening the public criticizing for trading up to take a RT.  

What you call “leak,” others might call Demosky talking out of the side of his neck lol. 

[ThatJerkDave]

Once again, I like looking for the patterns.  But I am not sure that the data really supports a hand size for OL though.  Most of the larger hand guys were draftees.  But about half of the smaller hand guys were also draftees.  

I do think Ray hit on this though, the Packers are more concerned about movement with their OL than absolute size.