2018 NFL Draft Discussion

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, Leader said:

Do you get these weird feelings frequently or is this one so out of character that it lends itself more credibility?

Most of the time they come after I look into a team's history.  I mean, there was a history when Andy Reid's teams had drafted lineman in the first round like 8 of the last 12 first round picks were.  I wouldn't say they are more right or more wrong.  I had Jack Conklin pegged to Tennessee well before most people believed that it would happen, that's one of them I remember vividly.

[TheGreatZepp]

I don’t like Vita Vea I’m in the top 10 or too 15 even. I have too many concerns about players his size and the motors required to not take plays off. I like that player better in their 2nd or  3rd contract when they are at their muscular peak and have learned how to use their size to their advantage against top talent and not rely on the size/strength advantage that existed in college. He’s not a guy with natural pass rush movement already and don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t be upset if he found a spot on the depth but not at the cost of acquiring a talent that opposing teams will have to scheme against 

[Chili]

I think with Nelson gone we have a unique opportunity draft a starting WR who can add speed to our offence. We have complained in the past that we lacked speedy playmakers and now with Nelson gone we can for the first time try to add speed to our starting WR group. The importance of speed can be best illustrated simply by looking back to the past.

You don't have to go far back to 2015 to see what happened to our offence when we lacked a deep threat. Nelson was out for the season and when teams realised that without Nelson we did not threaten them deep with our slower receivers like Adams, Cobb and R.Rodgers, they just sacked the box and squeezed the life out of our run game and as a result our play action didn't work. Even someone as good as Rodgers at QB he struggled getting our spluttering offence moving foward as our WRs could not win their 1on1 matchups because they weren't quick enough. Somehow we did just enough to reach the playoffs.

Our defence that year, on paper at least should've been elite (Matthews, Peppers, Perry, Daniels, Hyde, Burnett, HaHa, Randall, Shields, Hayward). Capers didn't help but ultimately our downfall was because we lost just 1 player. Prime Jordy Nelson. Other team who suffer injuries were able to adjust but we couldn't and that for me was pathetic. Goes to show how important speed is to NFL teams as it kept defences honest and the Packers mistake was not adding enough speed on both sides of the ball, both starters and depth.

The speed issue reared it ugly head again in 2016 but this time on the defensive side of the ball. Shields was out for the season, We lost Hayward in FA. We got completely murdered on defence as we were having to play slow Gunter as our starting corner. Hyde and Burnett weren't the quickest to compensate, Randall was inconsistent and our CB depth was too inexperienced, our ILB was slow too. We were just slow all around and we had to watch the speedy Atlanta offence rip us apart in the playoffs.

2014, 2015 and 2016 was our superbowl window. We missed out due to player mistakes, lack of speed on both sides of the ball, Capers incompetence, Rodgers injuries and poor front office decisions in retaining FAs as well as drafting. Missing out on the playoffs last season was a culumination of all those factors coming to head which is why we are seeing so much change this offseason in the front office and coaching staff as well as getting involved in free agency in order to try and continue Rodger's superbowl window. Its not going to be easy and more tough decisions like cutting Nelson may have to be made.

I'm going way off topic now but the point is we have an opportunity to fix one of our issues by getting faster at WR. I don't want us to settle for Geronimo, that would be a mistake. We did it before by settling for Gunter as our starting corner when Shields went down. Lets not make the same mistake again.

 

[Gopackgonerd]

6 hours ago, Leader said:

Ben Fennell:

Josh Jackson 6'0, 196, 31.125 arms - 40: 4.56 - Bench: 18 - Vert: 38" - BJ: 10'3 - 3Cone: 6.86 - 20yd: 4.03

Josh Norman 6'0 197, 32.75 arms -40: 4.66 - Bench: 14 - Vert: 33" - BJ: 10'4 - 3Cone: 7.09 - 20yd: 4.23

Josh Jackson is turning more and more into CB1 for me this year... Didn't have that 'wow' explosive/inspiring Combine week but rewatching the tape is affirming my pre-Combine thoughts....... Angles, burst, ball skills... I love the aggressive ‘my ball’ attitude from the former high school WR... But more impressive are the angles he’s taking at the ball....... Josh Jackson was excellent in the red zone... When we can’t give you help, can you handle your own on an island? In addition to proper technique - gotta have play strength, confidence, length, etc. Jackson has it!

I just watched his combine, think people are overreacting to how bad it is. I think his backpedal can get better. But man it's hard to argue with those ball skills, 8 interceptions, 2 returned for touchdowns. If you think it's a risk taking him because of his combine, I think it's a good risk to take.

[CWood21]

14 minutes ago, Chili said:

I think with Nelson gone we have a unique opportunity draft a starting WR who can add speed to our offence. We have complained in the past that we lacked speedy playmakers and now with Nelson gone we can for the first time try to add speed to our starting WR group. The importance of speed can be best illustrated simply by looking back to the past.

There's ZERO correlation that being fast makes a receiver good.  We've seen plenty of 4.5+ WRs who have been good, and we've seen a bunch of 4.3+ receivers who were bad.  Davante Adams ran a 4.56, Jordy Nelson ran a 4.51, Randall Cobb ran 4.46, Greg Jennings ran a 4.42, and James Jones ran a 4.58.  That's five different receivers who've had quite a bit of success, and their average 40 time 4.51, so speed really didn't seem to be a real major factor.  Would I like a fast WR who can play WR?  Absolutely, but I'm more than wiling to take a slightly slower WR whose a great route runner.  You can play up speed with strong routes.

18 minutes ago, Chili said:

You don't have to go far back to 2015 to see what happened to our offence when we lacked a deep threat. Nelson was out for the season and when teams realised that without Nelson we did not threaten them deep with our slower receivers like Adams, Cobb and R.Rodgers, they just sacked the box and squeezed the life out of our run game and as a result our play action didn't work. Even someone as good as Rodgers at QB he struggled getting our spluttering offence moving foward as our WRs could not win their 1on1 matchups because they weren't quick enough. Somehow we did just enough to reach the playoffs.

Look at our top 3 targets that year: James Jones, Randall Cobb, and Richard Rodgers.  Are you going to take James Jones over Davante Adams?  I'm definitely not.  Would you take 2015 Randall Cobb over 2018 Randall Cobb?  Probably.  Would you take Richard Rodgers over Jimmy Graham?  Hell no.  If you want to make your analogy work, change your argument would you be comfortable with our WR corps if it didn't include Davante Adams.  Right now, the difference between Adams/Graham and Jones/Rodgers is significantly bigger than the difference between 2015 Cobb and 2018 Cobb.  And not by a very big margin.  In 2015, the Packers didn't have a deep threat.  Not at WR and not at TE.  That isn't the case with the 2018 Packers.

22 minutes ago, Chili said:

I'm going way off topic now but the point is we have an opportunity to fix one of our issues by getting faster at WR. I don't want us to settle for Geronimo, that would be a mistake. We did it before by settling for Gunter as our starting corner when Shields went down. Lets not make the same mistake again.

Maybe I'm not wording this correctly.  Nobody here is arguing that the Packers shouldn't try to improve their WR situation.  My (and others) argument is that we have bigger fish to fry.  I'm comfortable going into the 2018 season with Geronimo Allison as our #3 WR.  I'm not comfortable going into the 2018 season with Kyler Fackrell as my #3 OLB or Josh Hawkins as my #3 CB.  So unless a WR has a significantly higher grade than the EDGE or CB, I'm not taking a WR before the 3rd round in a perfect situation.

[incognito_man]

are any of the guys this year better prospects than Kevin king? Ward?

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

are any of the guys this year better prospects than Kevin king? Ward?

With a year of experience?  Probably not.  Denzel Ward is the better prospect.  Josh Jackson is the better prospect, but like I've mentioned I'm not huge on his fit.  Is King clearly better than that next tier?  I'm not sure.  Are any of them clearly better than King?  Maybe.

[Packerraymond]

2 hours ago, Gopackgonerd said:

I just watched his combine, think people are overreacting to how bad it is. I think his backpedal can get better. But man it's hard to argue with those ball skills, 8 interceptions, 2 returned for touchdowns. If you think it's a risk taking him because of his combine, I think it's a good risk to take.

Do you want the corner who can cover and hope you can teach him ball skills (Ward) or the corner who can take the ball away but you need to teach him man skills (Jackson) ?

Not sure there is a right answer, but that's what talent evaluators are going to have to decide.

[Gopackgonerd]

9 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Do you want the corner who can cover and hope you can teach him ball skills (Ward) or the corner who can take the ball away but you need to teach him man skills (Jackson) ?

Not sure there is a right answer, but that's what talent evaluators are going to have to decide.

I'd take Ward over Jackson because of his man to man skills definetely, very safe pick. If Jackson falls because of the combine(maybe he has a better pro day) I think he'll be a steal though.

[JBURGE]

22 hours ago, HorizontoZenith said:

I don't think Chubb lasts until 6th overall.  Wait... Holy cow, Chubb might last until the 6th pick now. 

If the Browns draft a QB and the Giants go Barkley, the Browns are going to end up with a second franchise pass rusher.  I think they'd take Chubb and have Chubb and Garrett.  That's the makings of an all-time great dynasty.  Two elite pass rushers and a franchise QB?  Has that ever happened before? 

 

The Colts with Manning, Freeney and Mathis is the most recent one. Wentz with Cox, Graham, whatever Barnett could be. 

[JBURGE]

12 hours ago, Gopackgonerd said:

12 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Do you want the corner who can cover and hope you can teach him ball skills (Ward) or the corner who can take the ball away but you need to teach him man skills (Jackson) ?

Not sure there is a right answer, but that's what talent evaluators are going to have to decide.

I'd take Ward over Jackson because of his man to man skills definetely, very safe pick. If Jackson falls because of the combine(maybe he has a better pro day) I think he'll be a steal though.

I don't really think Josh had a bad combine. It was just shown what a lot of people thought, which is that he doesnt press and he doesn't know how to backpedal. Similar to Dre Kirkpatrick years ago, but Josh has way better man skills. I think He still goes top 20, but he definitely will be a divisive player on boards imo. I have to think Seattle is where he gets drafted. 

[Rodjahs12]

3 minutes ago, JBURGE25 said:

I don't really think Josh had a bad combine. It was just shown what a lot of people thought, which is that he doesnt press and he doesn't know how to backpedal. Similar to Dre Kirkpatrick years ago, but Josh has way better man skills. I think He still goes top 20, but he definitely will be a divisive player on boards imo. I have to think Seattle is where he gets drafted. 

Seattle almost has to take a tackle 

[JBURGE]

1 minute ago, Rodjahs12 said:

4 minutes ago, JBURGE25 said:

I don't really think Josh had a bad combine. It was just shown what a lot of people thought, which is that he doesnt press and he doesn't know how to backpedal. Similar to Dre Kirkpatrick years ago, but Josh has way better man skills. I think He still goes top 20, but he definitely will be a divisive player on boards imo. I have to think Seattle is where he gets drafted. 

Seattle almost has to take a tackle 

We've been saying this for 5 years and every year they pass on taking them. With Duane Brown they have the best LT they've had in ages. 

[Packerraymond]

I watched all of the 2017 tape available on Jackson last night.

Pros: Build is nice, he's exactly what you want in a CB IMO, 6'0 200. Ball skills are obviously legit, that's the first thing you notice. His mirror skills are pretty nice, he looks fluid, I'm not sure why everyone was so worried about what his agility drills would look like, I see no issues there. The instincts are off the charts for a rookie CB who would be converted from WR in college. He has the rare ability to know where both his man and the QB eyes are at the same time, and saw him multiple times come off his man to jump another route as the QB was releasing the ball. That's Charles Woodson level stuff there and he's got it at the college level. Impressive.

Cons: The guy makes Sam Shields look like Ray Lewis in the run game. Soft as Charmin. Accepts a block and just lets the offensive player push him wherever he wants, makes no attempt to shed. Rarely asked to press but his quick twitch and mirror skills lead me to believe he can learn. He'll be more a press and bail guy. 

Overall: The stats are nicer than the player, someone will draft him for the turnover ability and hope they can build up the rest of the package. His instincts are so advanced for a young guy, but he's so bad in the run/bubble game. I'd run multiple toss/bubbles to his side of the field if I was an opposing OC. If we trade down I'd be interested, not at 14.

[Leader]

Good assessment/breakdown of Jackson.

Value at 14 versus other guys - cant say - but an add on note is that Deion wasnt much on coming up and tackling - and apparently Marcus Peters isnt either. (Now, now - dont all jump off the cliff and presume I'm comparing Jackson to those guys.....) - but its COVERAGE I value personally. Passes defended. Knocked down. Intercepted - and/or - WRs tackled at the point of reception.

A CB with a "not on my watch" attitude in coverage and the skills to back them up.