Is Cam Newton on a HOF pace?

[GSUeagles14]

On 7/4/2020 at 8:48 AM, ET80 said:

I was going to say no, but this makes me think maybe...

while i disagree, i really respect the amount of time you soent thinking on it before making a decision. two years is really commendable, glad to see you take it serious.

[ET80]

1 hour ago, GSUeagles14 said:

while i disagree, i really respect the amount of time you soent thinking on it before making a decision. two years is really commendable, glad to see you take it serious.

As usual, I have no idea what you're saying.

[GSUeagles14]

11 minutes ago, ET80 said:

As usual, I have no idea what you're saying.

he posted that in 2018

 

btw so theres no further confusion, it was a an attempt at a joke, apparently a poor one.

Edited July 10, 2020 by GSUeagles14

[Hunter2_1]

2 minutes ago, ET80 said:

As usual, I have no idea what you're saying.

You've been well and truly Pass-Agg'd there...

[ET80]

39 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

he posted that in 2018

 

btw so theres no further confusion, it was a an attempt at a joke, apparently a poor one.

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Oh, ok. My bad, I didn't even look at the OP date.

That was a good one, too bad it was wasted on me.

39 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

You've been well and truly Pass-Agg'd there...

I need a Snickers.

[patriotsheatyan]

On 7/4/2020 at 9:13 AM, fraziafraze07 said:

Forgive the below speech from a Cameron Jerrell Newton apologist.  TL/DR, should Cam return healthy and play to age 35, he should definitely get into the HOF, even projecting relatively modest production.

When I wrote the post above right at the beginning of the 2018 season, Cam's prospects looked a bit different.  Now, he's lost an entire season (final two games of 2018 and final 14 games of 2019) to injury, and you could honestly call it more like a season and a half, because it was clear that post-TJ Watt hit in 2018, he was playing injured prior to being shut down toward the end of the season.  That's prevented him from maintaining the statistical pace that he was previously on, as he has added only another 486 yards and 4 rushing TDs over the past two seasons played.  I personally don't believe that we will have football in 2020 due to COVID, and if that's the case, that would have Cam sitting at 4,806 rushing yards and 58 rushing TDs entering the 2021 season at age 32

I would think, given multiple years to heal from both his shoulder and lisfranc injuries, that Cam will return to a healthy and capable QB. When healthy in 2018, he showed that in a Norv Turner offense, he had the discipline, intelligence, and accuracy to throw the ball effectively. Most Cam critics like to knock him for inaccuracy, but the truth of the matter is, prior to running Turner's offense, Cam was asked to operate a passing scheme with very little margin for error.  Under both Chudzinski and Mike Shula, he was asked to push the ball down the field and was consistently among the league leaders in average air yards per attempt.  These types of throws are obviously lower percentage throws than shorter, underneath stuff, and Carolina's inability or disinterest in providing Cam with better receiving targets exacerbated that issue. Under Turner, operating an offense that did not require such difficult throws, Cam was completing over 2/3 of his passes and had a passer rating over 100.  And in that time, Turner did not deemphasize the run so much that it cut that drastically into Cam's rushing performance. He still had almost 500 yards and 4 TDs in 14 games, almost half of which he played injured. 

So where does that leave us projection wise?  Assuming football resumes in 2021 with Cam entering the season at age 32, I would give him another 4 years of playing time before retiring having just completed his age 35 season.  He may be able to play longer, as there are plenty of QBs who have played into their late-30s. But even if Cam can, it's likely that his rushing abilities would decline enough by age 35 that he's not going to significantly accumulate more rushing yards and TDs past that point to really change our conclusions from this exercise.  Let's assume that partly due to changes in offensive philosophy under Belichick and/or other future coaches and partly due to just being older that Cam, that he averages 400 yards and 5 TDs each of those 4 years, accruing an additional 1,600 yards and 20 TDs for his career.  Note that Cam has only had one "full" season with less than 5 rushing TDs (the shortened 2018) or 400 yards (2016--also dealt with some injuries at the end). That does not consider 2019 as a full season since he only played 2 games. So those benchmarks are reasonable and represent the low end of his past production.

That would place his totals at 6,406 yards and 78 TDs. That would tie him with Ricky Watters for the 22nd most all-time rushing TDs. Of the 21 men ahead of him, 14 are in the HOF and at least 3 or 4 of the remaining 7 are likely to be inducted some day.  For rushing yards, obviously a lot less impressive than his previous projected total I had arrived at of 8,500, but this would still put him at the 76th most rushing yards of all time regardless of position (right behind Arian Foster) and at 1st all time for a QB, breaking Vick's current record of 6,109. That resume is probably bordeline HOF on its own, considering he's a QB and not a RB.  Those numbers have to be viewed in context and given some extra weight.

Since those numbers are worse than I last projected forward in 2018, let's go ahead and consider the passing stats he might achieve if he plays to age 35.  I'm a big believer that Cam is a good passer.  Critiques of his accuracy in the past have largely ignored the context of what his offense asked him to do, as I briefly touched on above, and I think the first half of 2018 showed that Cam can be a very productive passer in the future if healthy and in an offense that doesn't ask so much of him. That being said, for argument's sake, I'll be conservative here. Let's assume Cam averages the following stat line for the 4 years, playing in ball control offenses that run more often than the rest of the league and don't push the ball downfield through the air:  280 completions, 450 attempts, 62.5% completion percentage, 3,200 yards, 7.1 yards per attempt. That works out to a QB rating of 87.  Not anything to write home about in this era of inflated passing statistics, but competent enough to hold a job, particularly when combined with what he brings to the table rushing. Adding up those totals, he'd finish his career with 41,841 yards (18th all time) and 262 passing TDs (18th all time, 7 ahead of him currently in the HOF, but most of the others will eventually be elected as well). Of course, I haven't projected forward stats for other active QBs that could also climb these leader boards such as Matthew Stafford.

Stats are not the be-all, end-all when it comes to HOF enshrinement. But when you consider where Cam's output would end up in the scenario above, he has to be in the HOF. No other player in history has been able to combine different kinds of production like he has, and I think that is also something that voters should take into account.  If Cam can't play another 4 years, is he in? I'd say no. He has been an exciting player that has made many jaw dropping players, and despite less statistical accrual, his uniqueness would still present a fair argument. For example, gale Sayers is in the HOF despite not accruing a lot of stats, but he was uniquely gifted and exciting as well. But I still think voters would keep Cam out.  Hell, as I said in 2018, there a bunch of sport writers out there that don't like Cam as a person and also have preconceived notions/misunderstandings of who he is as a passer probably would still vote against him even if we played my scenario out 4 years.

If you include passing, Newton goes down. Posting a passer rating that’s around the league average in a league filled with rookies, backups, and busts does not help your team win. 

[Tetsujin]

He needs to win a SB just to be considered, IMO.

[fraziafraze07]

4 hours ago, patriotsheatyan said:

If you include passing, Newton goes down. Posting a passer rating that’s around the league average in a league filled with rookies, backups, and busts does not help your team win. 

What do you mean if you "include" passing, he goes "down?"  Down as in his HOF case?  Or down in that you think he'd lose a starting gig if he posted those numbers, and without the starting gig, he doesn't accumulate those extra stats?

In the case of the latter, an average passer combined with that rushing contribution, some of which would include rushes that extend drives by escaping sacks and picking up 3rd downs that wouldn't otherwise be converted is likely stick as a starter with at least some team in this league.  It may not win you a championship, but it can keep you competitive and certainly exceeds contributions from "rookies, backups, and busts."

In the case of the former, how do you exclude the passing stats?  His whole HOF case will boil down to his unprecedented combined production.  Era-adjusted, his passing can be considered average with some flashes of brilliance. Nothing to write home about beyond his 2015 seasons and the first half of 2018.  But his career rushing production will be considered "good" in a vacuum, but is historically great considering he's a QB.  No other player in league has combined that sort of production. That definitely places him in the conversation for the HOF and is enough for me to get him in.  Do I think it's enough for all the people who have a vote?  Maybe. But there are too many people in the media that don't like his behavior (those with ridiculous takes about him wearing a towel on the head, celebrations, etc) or are salty that they were wrong about how he would fit in the league that I could certainly see him not getting in.

[rfournier103]

I think if he wins a Super Bowl or two with the Patriots, a case could be made for Newton being a Hall of Famer. 

[Nabbs4u]

12 hours ago, rfournier103 said:

I think if he wins a Super Bowl or two with the Patriots, a case could be made for Newton being a Hall of Famer. 

If Eli Manning is somehow considered a HOF, Cam would be an absolute lock if the above occured. However, despite the stats listed earlier in this thread, he's not a HOF in waiting unless the above happens or another 1-2 MVP type seasons transpire. 

[Archimedes]

I don’t think Cam is on a HOF pace, but I do think he has a path to get in. He’s already the all time leader amongst QBs for rushing TDs. If he also catches Vick and becomes the all time leader in rushing yards, while reaching 50,000 yard passing/300 passing TDs, then he’ll have a decent case. If he can at least make one SB to go along with all that (doesn’t even have to win IMO), I’d almost guarantee he gets in.
 

The problem is I don’t think all of that is likely for him.

[rfournier103]

14 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

If Eli Manning is somehow considered a HOF, Cam would be an absolute lock if the above occured. However, despite the stats listed earlier in this thread, he's not a HOF in waiting unless the above happens or another 1-2 MVP type seasons transpire. 

 

10 hours ago, Archimedes said:

I don’t think Cam is on a HOF pace, but I do think he has a path to get in. He’s already the all time leader amongst QBs for rushing TDs. If he also catches Vick and becomes the all time leader in rushing yards, while reaching 50,000 yard passing/300 passing TDs, then he’ll have a decent case. If he can at least make one SB to go along with all that (doesn’t even have to win IMO), I’d almost guarantee he gets in.
 

The problem is I don’t think all of that is likely for him.

As long as Cam’s tenure with the Patriots isn’t a one-and-done, I think he could gain some traction in the Pats’ offense and make a couple of runs with a reloaded New England squad. Newton himself will be the catalyst, and the Patriots will sink or sail depending on Josh McDaniels and Cam. 
 

I’ve read on NESN’s website that Cam has been working out with Mohammad Sanu and N’Keal Harry. Both are excellent receivers, and if all three play up to form, the Patriots will do well this year. 

[Jeezla]

Hall of Very Good with McNabb

[Archimedes]

46 minutes ago, rfournier103 said:

 

As long as Cam’s tenure with the Patriots isn’t a one-and-done, I think he could gain some traction in the Pats’ offense and make a couple of runs with a reloaded New England squad. Newton himself will be the catalyst, and the Patriots will sink or sail depending on Josh McDaniels and Cam. 
 

I’ve read on NESN’s website that Cam has been working out with Mohammad Sanu and N’Keal Harry. Both are excellent receivers, and if all three play up to form, the Patriots will do well this year. 

It’s definitely not outside the realm of possibility. Cam was having a solid 2018 campaign through week 9 before the injuries. He definitely went to the right situation to rejuvenate his career.

[AlexGreen#20]

On 7/12/2020 at 4:02 PM, rfournier103 said:

 

As long as Cam’s tenure with the Patriots isn’t a one-and-done, I think he could gain some traction in the Pats’ offense and make a couple of runs with a reloaded New England squad. Newton himself will be the catalyst, and the Patriots will sink or sail depending on Josh McDaniels and Cam. 
 

I’ve read on NESN’s website that Cam has been working out with Mohammad Sanu and N’Keal Harry. Both are excellent receivers, and if all three play up to form, the Patriots will do well this year. 

Well now you're just out here lying