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Week 4 MNF KC @ DEN GD Thread

Broncofan

By Broncofan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

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We finally got it started in DEN's forum, might as well put it here...

KC - 4 to -5, O/U set  at 54-55 pts.

DVOA Team Efficiency 2018 - KC #3 overall, #1 O, #32 D, #1 ST (2017 - #10 overall, #4 O, #30 D, #4 ST);  DEN #15, overall, #15 O, #16 D, #14 ST (2017 - #29 overall, #31 O, #10 D, #30 ST)

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We're home dogs for good reason, but if we look at the matchups a little further, there's some reason for hope besides HFA, namely:

1.  Our OL vs. their DL - our team's pass protection struggles are well-documented, but if there's a get-well game to try and exploit, it's this one.   Outside of Dee Ford, no one really brings the heat to the QB on the Chiefs DL this year.   Now, Justin Houston had a great game vs. SF, but again with the home-field advantage of that split-second slower OL response off the snap, it offers more hope our beleaguered OL can keep the pocket clean long enough for our O to exploit ...

2.  Our WR's vs. their DB's - really, other than WAS import Kendall Fuller, all the matchups work in our favor vs. a very soft Chiefs secondary (who are opportunistic - more on that later), and can be beat for big plays/points.   DT did bounce back in catching all of his targets (and had a 40-yard play called back on one of the unfortunate OL penalties last week too).  Sanders is in peak shape, and while Sutton's learning through the rookie phase ropes, if there's a matchup to take advantage of, it's this one.    Really, it comes down to our OL creating enough time tonight, and Keenum making better decisions & throws.   The matchups are there to take advantage

3.  Our run blocking vs. their run D - their run D with Benny Logan gone, and 2 rookies manning 0-tech, and new ILB's getting into KC's D, the run D has been equally soft.   If we could get a lead or keep it to 1-score or less in the 4Q, then we'd be set up to slowly wear them out (a big if, to be sure).

4.  No Eric Berry - huge break for us there.  Sounds like he's out for a while (although I will say Eric Murray has played well in his absence).

Now, those are the reasons for hope.  The problems as I see it:

1.  That KC O - Mahomes is red-hot, but it's also a function of just how uncoverable Tyreek Hill.  T-Hill is a nightmare for us - because his type (joystick speed merchant) is the one player profile that gives Harris fits.  So we can't really shut him down with ISO island coverage.  And zone or man vs. our other guys is just not getting it done, either.       Given how poor we are against TE's, Travis Kelce has to be licking his chops.  And we get to Sammy Watkins as the #2 WR facing our other CB's, and Kareem Hunt (although mystifyingly used less than Spencer Ware) vs. our LB's, well, mismatches all around.   

2.  KC's D is very opportunistic for TO's on mistakes - Keenum's mistakes in judgment / late throws are a huge problem vs. that very soft KC D - because while they will give up big plays, they will absolutely pounce on late throws.   Their 8 INT's reflects their gambling nature - which for a QB who makes late reads or bad decisions, well, it's a problem.   Keenum's got to make quick reads and good decisions, and not be late.   So far, he's not shown that - hopefully a clean pocket will help, but this is a major reason for our pessimism.   Lose the TO game, with that O, and it's game over for us.

3.  KC's ST's - not just Tyreke Hill, but their cover units are fantastic.  Once again, #1 in DVOA this year, after being a top unit last year.   Say what you will about his HC interviews apparently being bland, but Dave Toub is a ST genius.   As much as we're still much-improved from last year's disaster, we're not at KC's level most weeks. 

4.  K-Hunt as a closer - if the Chiefs jump out ahead, K-Hunt's ability to wear us down really creates a double-edged sword.   Not just wearing our D down, but also winning the ToP battle, which is key in altitude.

All in all, I think 4 factors decide the game:

1.  How many mistakes Keenum makes, vs. Mahomes.

2.  How quickly our pass rush can get pressure early to Mahomes (without it, we're sunk on D).

3.   The TO battle (have to be +2 or better to have a shot at winning this IMO)

4.  ST battles for field position / converting on kicks.

I'd love to call the DEN upset, but my head says it's something like 34-24 KC when it's all said and done.   Would be very happy to be wrong here.   The thing is, with how hard the schedule is, a L here would pretty much demonstrate the 7-9/8-8 predicted outcome Vegas has for us seems about right (3 of first 4 games at home, and SEA/OAK already out of way).

At least we have less than 6 hours to game time!

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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25 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Will be interesting to see if Mahomes can continue looking so spectacular, especially in a prime-time division matchup versus a once-stout defense.

FIFY.

We have 3 very big weaknesses on D from our 2015, legendary-level D, that teams all know and kill us when QB's drop back to pass:

1.  Our CB's outside of Harris are terrible in man coverage.   And Harris, while absolutely nails in the slot, is somewhat lessened outside.  And no matter where he is, the one WR skill type that kills him - the speed merchant, quick twitch guy.   Hello, Tyreke Hill.  Hill's torching us repeatedly in 2016 led Elway to a fool's errand of trying to find the next Tyreke Hill not once, but TWICE in the 2017 draft - when there can be Tyreke Hill-molds...but there's only one Tyreke Hill.   But now, with Talib gone, Roby, while serviceable as our 3rd CB, is just AWFUL as our 2nd CB.  He looks terrible in man, and is really only effective against lesser talents, or in a zone scheme.  Which is a huge problem with Joe Woods' man scheme (which borrows heavily from his predecessor Wade Phillips).   And our 3rd CB, while Pacman Jones is OK in short bursts (but can't sustain for whole game in altitude IMO), his counterpart, Tramaine Brock, just lost too much quick-twitch skills due to injury.  And our rookie Isaac Yiadom and likely-bust 2017 pick (a common theme) Brandon Langley aren't ready to play meaningful snaps (which is OK in Yiadom's case - not so much for a year 2 Day 2 pick..but that's Elway's past weakness).

2.  Our ILB's can't cover TE's and RB's - we hoped our hybrid S/LB guys could help, but so far, they're still learning (or on IR).   Todd Davis literally has no business being on the field as more than a thumper run-stopper - so teams routinely target him on 1st down with play-action.   And they burn him badly.  Brandon Marshall was awesome in 2014-15, but injuries have robbed him of the agility to cover.  Rookie Josey Jewell offers promise, but he's actually a better fit in a zone read coverage scheme, as his reading skills and intangibles allow anticipation to play up, vs. average foot speed.  Still, he'll be a huge upgrade on ILB coverage once he plays more.   Until then, we are going to get abused whenever good pass-catching RB's and TE's show up.  KC's group?   Travis Kelce, K-Hunt and Spencer Ware.  Um yeah, not good there.

3.  Our DL pass rush in non-existent.  We went from having 4 EDGE's who could bring heat in 2015, paired with Malik Jackson and a young Derek Wolfe.   Wolfe's a warrior, but neck injuries and wear/tear have turned him into a run-stuffer who can't get inside push.  Shelby Harris is our best pass-rush DE, hopefully we use him more.   Adam Gotsis is a failed 2nd-round pick, who while very capable as a run-stuffer, has not developed the chops for any type of serious pass rush.  The jury's still out on Demarcus Walker, who really just lived off 1 move in college (spin), and needed to bulk up to play 5-tech (and so rookie year was a lost year, esp. when we asked him to fill in at EDGE, he went below 270 lbs to do that).  

Really, our hope is that Von Miller & the EDGES can bring enough heat to force mistakes from Mahomes, and that noise/HFA help us as well.  The problem, of course, is that Mahomes faced us in 2017 Week 17, and while way more raw, and with fewer weapons (as KC sat a bunch of guys getting ready for playoffs), he still performed admirably.   So it's not like he will be intimidated by playing in Mile High.   

Add it up, we really need to win the TO battle by 2+ or more, and have Mahomes make some of those Favre-like mistakes.   And we can't have Case Keenum play with late recognition, or bad decision-making.   Or...in other words, we can't ask Case Keenum to play like pre-2017 Case Keenum.   So....yeah.

Add it up, I see why the spread went from -4 on opening to -5 now on open formats.   HFA and TO's always offer a chance, especially since that KC D is truly awful minus the opportunism, and any D that has Von Miller should never be completely written off...but yeah...tall task tonight.

Our 2-1 record is misleading because we won the first 2 at home, vs. a SEA team that was just awful on D that day (Keenum's 3 INT's are the only reason they were in the game), and an OAK home game we should have lost, again because of how badly Keenum was in the 1H.  BAL just outclassed us in every facet - and worse, they ragdolled us in the trenches (our OL pass pro was brutal, run game was only thing we can say were OK in - every other area of trench play, we were outclassed by a mile).    It's really hard to call us a stout D anymore with that in mind.

We're no longer a team with an identity of a great D, and trying to find our QB/O - we're a team with a very vulnerable D, and trying to find our QB/O.  The only key difference in 2018 is that we have real hope, in that we've infused our roster with actual rookies who can play and be impact guys (a change from Elway's 2014-2017 Day 1-2 struggles, of epic proportions - the one real Achilles in his GM profile that's come to roost since our cheap draft/UFA's no longer were cheap after 2015).   I'll definitely take the long-term hope...but tonight, there's hope, but it's pretty thin.

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AFlaccoSeagulls

AFlaccoSeagulls

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1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Obligatory fantasy football post:

I need Phillip Lindsay and Tyreek Hill to not break a combined 71.66 points. 

I need the exact opposite of this, except it's 30 points and I need Mahomes to not throw TD's to anyone but Tyreek Hill.

So basically I hope you lose.

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kingseanjohn

kingseanjohn

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1 minute ago, RuskieTitan said:

Root for prime time shenanigans 

It'll probably be another Chiefs getting out to a big lead, Broncos come back, then it comes down to the final minute.

Their MNF game in 2016 was one of the best ever. You should watch the highlights if not the whole game.

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