Trubisky vs Watson, long term

[Superman(DH23)]

Just to update now both QBs have 9 games, and Trubisky leads in pretty much every stat, but hey it ain't close I guess

[patriotsheatyan]

I would take Trubisky because backups should at least be able to stay on the field.

[ET80]

53 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Just to update now both QBs have 9 games, and Trubisky leads in pretty much every stat, but hey it ain't close I guess

I'll admit that I'm probably short selling Trubisky - but when you look at the two on a game-by-game basis, I see that Trubisky is either really good or really bad, no middle ground. 

Watson has a few bad games, but he's relatively consistent overall in relation to his stats this season. 

And, while Watson has the better overall weapon in DeAndre Hopkins, the depth and variety of weapons Trubisky has is better. Texans don't have a TE like Trey Burton or a scatback like Tarik Cohen. Allen Robinson isn't in the same galaxy as Hopkins, but Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller are better than Keke Coutee and Vyncient Smith (Demaryius Thomas should improve upon this situation over the next few weeks, and Will Fuller SHOULD be in this discussion... but he can't stay healthy). 

I won't go into the OL individually, but the Bears OL is CONSIDERABLY better. Watson is pressured on nearly 50% of his dropbacks, has been sacked and hit more than any other QB in the league by a wide margin - it's borderline criminal how bad Watson's OL has been. Then, there is the coaching. I don't have a read on Matt Nagy, but he's better than Bill O'Brien. By a lot, I'd wager.

Watson is also coming back from that ACL injury, and we can cite example after example of guys regressing the season following such an injury. 

In conclusion - Trubisky has a slight advantage in regards to his situation (I say slight because Hopkins is THAT much of an equalizer). Yet, Watson is producing at an equal clip for the most part (your words, not mine).

What would the numbers look like if the playing field was equal? If Watson had an even average OL? A dependable TE in the seam? A satellite back who can make yards on short passes? A coach who doesn't mismanage the clock or fall into a cycle of predictability on 1st and 2nd down? What would the situation look like if Trubisky had DeAndre Hopkins... and nothing else?

I'll let you tell me.

[Superman(DH23)]

8 minutes ago, ET80 said:

I'll admit that I'm probably short selling Trubisky - but when you look at the two on a game-by-game basis, I see that Trubisky is either really good or really bad, no middle ground. 

Watson has a few bad games, but he's relatively consistent overall in relation to his stats this season. 

And, while Watson has the better overall weapon in DeAndre Hopkins, the depth and variety of weapons Trubisky has is better. Texans don't have a TE like Trey Burton or a scatback like Tarik Cohen. Allen Robinson isn't in the same galaxy as Hopkins, but Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller are better than Keke Coutee and Vyncient Smith (Demaryius Thomas should improve upon this situation over the next few weeks, and Will Fuller SHOULD be in this discussion... but he can't stay healthy). 

I won't go into the OL individually, but the Bears OL is CONSIDERABLY better. Watson is pressured on nearly 50% of his dropbacks, has been sacked and hit more than any other QB in the league by a wide margin - it's borderline criminal how bad Watson's OL has been. Then, there is the coaching. I don't have a read on Matt Nagy, but he's better than Bill O'Brien. By a lot, I'd wager.

Watson is also coming back from that ACL injury, and we can cite example after example of guys regressing the season following such an injury. 

In conclusion - Trubisky has a slight advantage in regards to his situation (I say slight because Hopkins is THAT much of an equalizer). Yet, Watson is producing at an equal clip for the most part (your words, not mine).

What would the situation look like if the playing field was equal? If Watson had an even average OL? A dependable TE in the seam? A satellite back who can make yards on short passes? A coach who doesn't mismanage the clock or fall into a cycle of predictability on first and 2nd down? What would the situation look like of Trubisky had DeAndre Hopkins... and nothing else?

I'll let you tell me.

Et it's not really true that hes either great or bad.  He hasnt had a "bad" game since week 3.  Hell just last week the Buffalo game was very meh.  

And we can't compare situations, ik, and again IM NOT SAYING TRUBISKY IS BETTER THAN WATSON OR MAHOMES.  I've been ver consistent in saying that we wont really know until 2020 who ultimately is better, my comments are directly meant for people who keep trying to say it's not close like the 2 arent producing remarkably similar results.

[ET80]

4 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

And we can't compare situations, ik, and again IM NOT SAYING TRUBISKY IS BETTER THAN WATSON OR MAHOMES.  I've been ver consistent in saying that we wont really know until 2020 who ultimately is better, my comments are directly meant for people who keep trying to say it's not close like the 2 arent producing remarkably similar results.

I guess my point is - we shouldn't compare stats without a view of situation, right? Looking at numbers in a vacuum doesn't really tell us much. Even in a "not very close" type statement. Of course Russell Wilson has been more successful than Andrew Luck and it's not very close - one had a loaded, run first team with the LOB, the other had something called a Bjorn and had to throw 200 times a game behind a one ply OL.

I'll concede your point of you're not making judgement until 2020.

[Superman(DH23)]

1 minute ago, ET80 said:

I guess my point is - we shouldn't compare stats without a view of situation, right? 

Ok let's really deep dive if you want, yes the Bears have a better OL, but are we really going to pretend like Will Fuller and DT dont exist.  Yeah Fuller is hurt now, but if you want to talk about the 1 game you haven't had him for, how about the 3 that 10 didnt have Arob.  Yeah 10 has Tre Burton.  But you yourself said Nuk is THAT MUCH of a difference maker.  Look you can pretend like there is some distinct difference between Watson and Tru if it makes you feel better, the fact is both guys are playing well with their team in the division lead.  Neither fanbase is crazy for liking their guy.  Again this whole discussion came from people saying it isnt close.  

[ET80]

1 minute ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Ok let's really deep dive if you want, yes the Bears have a better OL

CONSIDERABLY better. The Texans OL is probably the worst OL ever assembled, the sack and hit numbers are on a David Carr level through nine games. 

2 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

but are we really going to pretend like Will Fuller and DT dont exist.  Yeah Fuller is hurt now, but if you want to talk about the 1 game you haven't had him for, how about the 3 that 10 didnt have Arob

DT has played four quarters, after getting two days to learn the playbook - so yes, I'm not counting him. Starting next Sunday is a fairer assessment (and I do expect him to pay dividends early on). 

Will Fuller missed both New England and Denver, was injured in Indianapolis and re-injured vs Buffalo, and was starting to work his way out of that injury when he tore his ACL. So he should factor into it, but his injuries are consistent enough to where his impact is limited to a few games (and Watson took full advantage of those few games).

9 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Yeah 10 has Tre Burton.  But you yourself said Nuk is THAT MUCH of a difference maker.

But just having the threat to depend on opens up more. More often than not, you know the Texans passing game is "throw it to Nuk" which restricts what you can do overall...

13 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Neither fanbase is crazy for liking their guy.  Again this whole discussion came from people saying it isnt close.  

I'll concede to this. Like I said... I short sold Trubisky, but he's growing on me as a very good QB. As a Texans' fan, I'm going to have a slanted view, so hope you understand it.

[Heinz D.]

1 minute ago, ET80 said:

 I short sold Trubisky, but he's growing on me as a very good QB. As a Texans' fan, I'm going to have a slanted view, so hope you understand it.

I think, as it stands now, odds are they both end up as at least good QBs. It would be a boon to the league if they end up as superior QBs...

[tab]

im obviously biased and going to say Watson. He kind of gives me Aaron Rodgers vibes. Seems to play better the more pressure is on him.

I like Trubisky but it's still hard to say what his ceiling is right now. Deep ball is a bit questionable. A little too quick to run. A bit worried about him after the Greenbay game, he seemed really rattled by the scene. Hard to say how he'd perform in bigger games.

[Chargers]

2 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Just to update now both QBs have 9 games, and Trubisky leads in pretty much every stat, but hey it ain't close I guess

Trubisky shaping up to be a young Tony Romo, just a little raw coming out is all. 

[Pool]

43 minutes ago, tab said:

im obviously biased and going to say Watson. He kind of gives me Aaron Rodgers vibes. Seems to play better the more pressure is on him.

I like Trubisky but it's still hard to say what his ceiling is right now. Deep ball is a bit questionable. A little too quick to run. A bit worried about him after the Greenbay game, he seemed really rattled by the scene. Hard to say how he'd perform in bigger games.

The GB game? First game of the year in a new offense? That game? C'mon man that's a bit short sighted. Trubs has come a long long long way since that game.

[Pool]

2 minutes ago, Classic said:

Trubisky shaping up to be a young Tony Romo, just a little raw coming out is all. 

That's a really good comparison.

[tab]

41 minutes ago, Pool said:

The GB game? First game of the year in a new offense? That game? C'mon man that's a bit short sighted. Trubs has come a long long long way since that game.

let me ask this: what other opportunities has Trubisky had to come in clutch? 

[malak1]

5 minutes ago, tab said:

let me ask this: what other opportunities has Trubisky had to come in clutch? 

He drove the Bears downfield to take the lead late against the Dolphins iiirc

[JAF-N72EX]

7 minutes ago, tab said:

let me ask this: what other opportunities has Trubisky had to come in clutch? 

That's a fair question and one I have argued as well about Mitch in the past (check our thread for reference) and one that I would like to see myself.

However, since he has shown alot of progression in these last few games, he has yet to be given the opportunity to prove it or not because between him playing well and the defense playing lights out......the game is so far out of reach to show whether he has the ability or not.

The season is far from over and I''m sure there are going to be times when we're going to need him to step up and take control of the game for us. But until then, nobody can really answer that.