POST GAME GB at MIN week 12 (24-17 Loss, 4-6-1)

[vegas492]

4 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

They pretty much lay out their entire system if you read their methods section. There's no black magic involved. They do a really nice job explaining the 'why' as well.

Your concerns are already accounted for, actually.

I'll check it out. 

Okay, just did.  Came away thoroughly confused.  Read it again.  Read someone else's opinion of it.

My issues with it, keep in mind that I do find it interesting....

I cannot see their formula, nor their weighing system.  I cannot fathom coming up with a formula myself, so I'm naturally skeptical and feel like they are arbitrarily assigning numbers to try to make something complex seem simple. 

I also do not really know what they are trying to measure.  Seems like they are trying to measure efficiency.   They are trying to make the unpredictable predictable.  I'm unsure if their predictable metric correlates correctly and all that accurately to the unpredictable nature of football.  11 guys working as one for 1-6 seconds.  A slip on wet grass could factor in.  A wind gust.  An untied shoe.  

I feel like too much is tied to the situation.  Had Chicago run up the score on GB in the second half, those yards and points would have less value because they were so far ahead.  But had they done that, they would have put GB away and not have lost the game.

They really don't divulge the formula, nor the weighing system as it is proprietary.  

They explain the why, they just don't go far enough to satisfy me by using just their metric.

I do find it very, very interesting, though and it is something I hadn't really considered prior to our conversation, so I'm going to keep looking at it and trying to understand it.  It does get my analytical nature very curious, so thank you for showing it to me.

And...just because I do not fully understand it today, nor fully support it, doesn't mean that I find it without value.  It does hold some value to me.

[CWood21]

40 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

No, but salary affects the expectations that we as fans have of a player. 

Everybody is mad as hell at Matthews and Cobb for underperforming to their contracts.

Because Rodgers is viewed as a diety, that isn't happening with him. Instead people are doing everything they can to justify his performance so they don't have to come to terms with the idea that their view of Rodgers as a demi-god is incorrect. That's why you're seeing so many people blaming in no particular order:

1. McCarthy

2. The offensive line

3. The young receiving group

4. The defense

5. Ted Thompson

6. Rodgers' injuries

7. Rodgers' family life

It's never about the play of Aaron Rodgers. The only place in the entire state of Wisconsin (and it's affiliates) that the idea of criticizing Rodgers isn't sacrilege is on this forum, and it's been a long and bloody fight to reach that point.

I'd disagree.  I think Rodgers has gotten criticism.  Maybe not as much as he deserves, but Rodgers hasn't been devoid of criticism IMO.  Then again, the only exposure I get is on these boards.

[Mr Anonymous]

1 hour ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

Some people on here think Rodgers has the yips and I agree with that. Why shouldn't he? He's had two broken collarbones, a strained calf, and now just narrowly averted a bad knee injury. The yips have resulted in Rodgers dancing around and getting rid of the ball before he's set. Right now Rodgers is not playing to the level he is capable of playing too. He needs to be rebuilt. There's been a lot of talk about Rodgers trusting/not trusting in his receivers. But I think a more important area of trust is Rodgers' trust in his O-line. Losing two all-pro guards and replacing them with guys of limited ability, along with his serious injuries, has to be part of Rodgers' yips problem. IMHO step one in rebuilding Rodgers' is rebuilding his confidence in the O-line. That means finally finding solid replacements for Lang and Sitton. Right now I view Taylor as an adequate backup, but he shouldn't be starting. Bell and McCray shouldn't even be on the roster. To make matters worse, Linsley hasn't looked more than average this year either. 

The other part of rebuilding Rodgers' confidence is rebuilding the WR corps. Having at times as many as 3 rookies running around out there, would scare most any QB. Some of this time will take care of. Next year the three rookies will be vets. I would still like to see one solid vet added to this group. Maybe it's Kumerow, maybe not. With T. Davis hurt again bring him up and let's have a look. Otherwise someone like Golden Tate would fill the bill. Adams, Tate, and MVS could really stress a defense and rebuild Rodgers' confidence.

One other aspect of rebuilding Rodgers' confidence goes to his personality. I suspect Rodgers is a perfectionist. (I would like to hear what others think about this.) A lot has been made of Rodgers expecting perfection (or near perfection) from his receivers (the trust issue), but there is one aspect of perfectionism that has been overlooked. Perfectionists tend to be their own worst enemies, because they are afraid to make a mistake. If this is a problem, then failure to address this is on the QB coach and MM. Someone needs to work with Rodgers and convince him that passing a fart once in a while is OK. 

The final piece is the offensive scheme and play calling. Was it Baker Mayfield who made the comment this weekend that they are doing better and playing with more confidence, because they now trust the guys calling the plays? Ouch. But true. Rodgers has made several remarks that could be interpreted along these lines. If true, this is where I move into the "replace MM camp."

None of this is insurmountable, but it will take an offseason to implement. 

So much right with this that I could shed a tear. The only thing I'd add or stress more is playing uphill in an antiquated system that is fooling nobody. People here clearly don't understand how hard that is. Every year the Packers trot out this same scheme, Rodgers job gets harder.

[TheBitzMan]

7 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'd disagree.  I think Rodgers has gotten criticism.  Maybe not as much as he deserves, but Rodgers hasn't been devoid of criticism IMO.  Then again, the only exposure I get is on these boards.

Rodgers is taking a lot of heat on the twitter by local and some national reporters. He isn't getting this pass some are saying. 

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, TheBitzMan said:

Rodgers is taking a lot of heat on the twitter by local and some national reporters. He isn't getting this pass some are saying. 

That's a very recent change up.

[TheBitzMan]

Just now, AlexGreen#20 said:

That's a very recent change up.

Definitely. It started last week after the 3rd down throw to MVS and this week it's really taken off. 

[Mr. Fussnputz]

Just to be clear, my post's intent wasn't to criticize Rodgers, but rather to explain his under performance (by his standards) and to offer some constructive suggestions about what might be done to get him back to where he belongs performance-wise. As to the response that he should be able to perform as well as ever with that O-line, just because he's making a lot of money, why would anyone want to expose him to further injury? He is the franchise. Protect the franchise. When Cole Madison failed to report, the correct thing to do would have been swing a trade for a right guard. Gute has been pretty good so far, but leaving right guard to Bell/McCray and exposing a recently badly injured Rodgers to worry about further injury was a mistake.

[AlexGreen#20]

8 minutes ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

Just to be clear, my post's intent wasn't to criticize Rodgers, but rather to explain his under performance (by his standards) and to offer some constructive suggestions about what might be done to get him back to where he belongs performance-wise. As to the response that he should be able to perform as well as ever with that O-line, just because he's making a lot of money, why would anyone want to expose him to further injury? He is the franchise. Protect the franchise. When Cole Madison failed to report, the correct thing to do would have been swing a trade for a right guard. Gute has been pretty good so far, but leaving right guard to Bell/McCray and exposing a recently badly injured Rodgers to worry about further injury was a mistake.

You would have been more comfortable with Madison than with Bell/McCray?

Huh?

The Packers played the guard spots absolutely right. They went cheap. You can't pay low impact positions big money. 

Rodgers needs to not be a *****.

[SpeightTheVillain]

1 hour ago, Mr Anonymous said:

So much right with this that I could shed a tear. The only thing I'd add or stress more is playing uphill in an antiquated system that is fooling nobody. People here clearly don't understand how hard that is. Every year the Packers trot out this same scheme, Rodgers job gets harder.

What is the scheme? And why is it antiquated? 

You say a lot of things and pass them off as truth without any evidence. So, in detail, describe MM's scheme. 

[Dubz41]

Rodgers has always been bothered by Minnesota's pass rush because it comes right up the middle- our weakest spot.  Been watching Bell the last few weeks specifically and he is not good.  My take on Aaron's yips all stem from the knee injury.  He fought through it and came out and beat the Bears.  Then it seductively went to hell.  He missed tons of practice time.  His mechanics deteriorated out of necessity.  His confidence with his WRs declined on two fronts: Veteran WRs became injured and Rookie WRs did NOT get the valuable practice time they needed to contribute in MM's offense. It was kind of one small thing on top of another until it turned into **** hill.

The OLine was, at best, decent.  But they haven't been at their best for weeks.  The toughest stretch of the schedule is over and we had our ***** handed to us.  Things might get a little better, or they could get a lot better.  Sometimes we play best with our backs to the wall.  For us to get a lot better it pretty much is up to Rodgers.  His play must improve within the confines of ball control.  Our defense is hurt and ball control could be the remedy this team needs and that means Aaron needs to find the rhythm and lose the 'chunk yardage' mentality.

One more thing.....nobody answers my burning question; where the hell is Martinez.  I know he is the boards darling, but is he still stuck on a block?  Where did he go?

[coachbuns]

Could Madison have been  any worse?  Bell and McCray are crap.  You are right, you get what you pay for;  Cheap.   Up the middle rushing causes  problems and if you can't stop it, you're screwed.  2 broken collarbones, a bad knee ... getting your butt kicked, I'd be  jumpy too.  Better yet, maybe Ted should have drafted somebody  that sticks on the roster to help.  Not having 5,6,7 players from 3 piss poor drafting classes which would have included offensive linemen is the cause.  

 

[AlexGreen#20]

6 minutes ago, Dubz41 said:

Rodgers has always been bothered by Minnesota's pass rush because it comes right up the middle- our weakest spot.  Been watching Bell the last few weeks specifically and he is not good.  My take on Aaron's yips all stem from the knee injury.  He fought through it and came out and beat the Bears.  Then it seductively went to hell.  He missed tons of practice time.  His mechanics deteriorated out of necessity.  His confidence with his WRs declined on two fronts: Veteran WRs became injured and Rookie WRs did NOT get the valuable practice time they needed to contribute in MM's offense. It was kind of one small thing on top of another until it turned into **** hill.

The OLine was, at best, decent.  But they haven't been at their best for weeks.  The toughest stretch of the schedule is over and we had our ***** handed to us.  Things might get a little better, or they could get a lot better.  Sometimes we play best with our backs to the wall.  For us to get a lot better it pretty much is up to Rodgers.  His play must improve within the confines of ball control.  Our defense is hurt and ball control could be the remedy this team needs and that means Aaron needs to find the rhythm and lose the 'chunk yardage' mentality.

One more thing.....nobody answers my burning question; where the hell is Martinez.  I know he is the boards darling, but is he still stuck on a block?  Where did he go?

Why wouldn't you press this team and take away the rhythm throws at this point? Why would you believe this offense can make you pay for it?

Martinez is the only ILB on this team, a scheme asking him to start in the B gap and play outside contain, with edge rushers not stout enough to keep him clean. He's a good but not great player. Put him in a position to win and he looks how he did last year. Put him in a position to lose and you're seeing it.

[AlexGreen#20]

3 minutes ago, coachbuns said:

Could Madison have been  any worse?  Bell and McCray are crap.  You are right, you get what you pay for;  Cheap.   Up the middle rushing causes  problems and if you can't stop it, you're screwed.  2 broken collarbones, a bad knee ... getting your butt kicked, I'd be  jumpy too.  Better yet, maybe Ted should have drafted somebody  that sticks on the roster to help.  Not having 5,6,7 players from 3 piss poor drafting classes which would have included offensive linemen is the cause.  

 

^^^

This idiot right here, this is what I'm talking about.

Rodgers can do no wrong, everything is everybody else's fault. Cry cry cry, whine whine whine.

What draft classes are you upset about?

2015 was a bad class, but Randall is a real nice starter for Cleveland, and Hundley was also moved in that trade for Kizer and Cole Madison (RIP). We're missing Jake Ryan and Aaron Ripkowski right now.

We had 3 respectable starters in HHCD, Adams, and Linsley from 2014.

 

Not much left in 2013 but Bakhtiari was huge, Tretter is a good IOL starter, and Hyde made an all pro team last year. Just guys succeeding for the wrong teams.

[Norm]

9 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

^^^

This idiot right here, this is what I'm talking about.

Rodgers can do no wrong, everything is everybody else's fault. Cry cry cry, whine whine whine.

What draft classes are you upset about?

2015 was a bad class, but Randall is a real nice starter for Cleveland, and Hundley was also moved in that trade for Kizer and Cole Madison (RIP). We're missing Jake Ryan and Aaron Ripkowski right now.

We had 3 respectable starters in HHCD, Adams, and Linsley from 2014.

 

Not much left in 2013 but Bakhtiari was huge, Tretter is a good IOL starter, and Hyde made an all pro team last year. Just guys succeeding for the wrong teams.

I actually just generally speaking, I don't like the " could this guy have been any worse" argument. Yes, yes, yes they could and often are. But as humans we tend to remember when replacements were good. There's tons of guys we'd want to sign and trade for that are just as bad as guys we got playing. I still maintain we'd want tons of the guys we trade and want cut, etc, if they were on other teams. HHCD is a big example.

[PACKRULE]

5 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Absolutely.

What you're seeing is that he has confidence in the playsets that he's gotten to practice. Those first 10-20 plays that they've scripted and practiced over and over again during the week, he's doing well with. He's confident in what he's going to get from the defense and he's getting the ball out where and when it should be. We finish that script and it gets ugly.

That first drive, the 3 and out. Jones ran up the middle twice for a yard each to get us in 3rd and 8. Even under pressure, Rodgers rolled out and knew where to go with the ball. Adams just brainfarted and stepped on the line.

The second drive was clockwork except for the first play of the drive where Trae Waynes made a great play.

The third drive was picture perfect.

Those first 18 plays were awesomely executed. We scored 3 points the rest of the game, and even those were against softer clock kill coverage.

Good call on the scripts.