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QB carousel 2019


paul-mac

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Was just thinking about potential Nick Foles destinations and it occurred to me that not that many teams actually seem to need new QBs this year.

 

Jacksonville is an obvious one, but looking at the NFC side I reckon every single team will stick with their current starter apart from the Redskins (if Smith’s injury is a career ended) and possibly the Giants (probably likely to keep Eli and draft a rookie rather than FA/trade)

 

AFC outside of the Jags have a handful of question marks in Miami, Cincy, Denver, Oakland. All of those 4 have a viable starter on their roster now but the three new coaches may prefer to move on, especially in the cases of Tannehill and Dalton where they can be cut for massive cap savings. Raiders obviously depends on what happens with Derek Carr.

 

My prediction of what happens:

 

Jaguars trade for Joe Flacco

 

Redskins sign Nick Foles

 

Bridgewater stays in New Orleans on some kind of incentive laden contract 

 

Denver keep Keenum since he’s got some guaranteed money

 

Raiders keep Derek Carr

 

Bengals and Dolphins keep Tannehill and Dalton for one more year 

 

Then look for Jacksonville, NY Giants, Cincy, Miami, Denver and possibly the Pats and Chargers to be in the QB conversation on draft day 

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Redskins may not have the cap space to add another QB with Alex Smith taking up 14% of the cap.  We also have only $20 million in cap space, and while we can cut some veterans to create more room, that creates another problem because those veterans played meaningful snaps last year and will need to be replaced.  They may be riding out 2019 with McCoy, Josh Johnson and a mid-round developmental QB.  

Of course, Bruce Allen always does something to try and save his job, so you never know what might happen.  He could draft Kyler Murray, or trade for Joe Flacco.  

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3 hours ago, paul-mac said:

Was just thinking about potential Nick Foles destinations and it occurred to me that not that many teams actually seem to need new QBs this year.

 

Jacksonville is an obvious one, but looking at the NFC side I reckon every single team will stick with their current starter apart from the Redskins (if Smith’s injury is a career ended) and possibly the Giants (probably likely to keep Eli and draft a rookie rather than FA/trade)

 

AFC outside of the Jags have a handful of question marks in Miami, Cincy, Denver, Oakland. All of those 4 have a viable starter on their roster now but the three new coaches may prefer to move on, especially in the cases of Tannehill and Dalton where they can be cut for massive cap savings. Raiders obviously depends on what happens with Derek Carr.

 

My prediction of what happens:

 

Jaguars trade for Joe Flacco

 

Redskins sign Nick Foles

 

Bridgewater stays in New Orleans on some kind of incentive laden contract 

 

Denver keep Keenum since he’s got some guaranteed money

 

Raiders keep Derek Carr

 

Bengals and Dolphins keep Tannehill and Dalton for one more year 

 

Then look for Jacksonville, NY Giants, Cincy, Miami, Denver and possibly the Pats and Chargers to be in the QB conversation on draft day 

The Redskins can’t afford to pay Nick Foles.  They still owe Alex Smith a ton of money.  They’ll have to draft a young cheaper QB, it’s really their only option.

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5 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

The Redskins can’t afford to pay Nick Foles.  They still owe Alex Smith a ton of money.  They’ll have to draft a young cheaper QB, it’s really their only option.

Good! Neither You get nor the Giants get anything from Nick Foles. Nothing to see here, move along!

 

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3 hours ago, paul-mac said:

Jaguars trade for Joe Flacco

I could see this happening, but I think it more likely to happen if the Ravens take back Bortles in trade (this would allow them to get a better return on Flacco pick wise as well). The Jags cap issues are well documented at this point, and while they can make a considerable amount of room by some cuts / re-signs / restructures, taking on 18.5M is less than ideal. I think that they could wait to see if Flacco gets cut, who else falls through the cracks (Tannehill) and they get a cheaper alternative. 

3 hours ago, paul-mac said:

Redskins sign Nick Foles

This will obviously depend on Smith, but assuming that Smith isn't ready to start the season, I don't think that Foles is a legit option. I think after the last two seasons, he's in line for a nice pay day. Not a great one, but more than Washington is likely to commit when Smith is on a fully guaranteed year. That's just too much money tied into the quarterback spot. It's not impossible - would require some finagling on Foles contract that would give them a lower cap hit the first year, which likely means a greater signing bonus. Given that they are still underwater on Smith's deal even in year 3 (16.2 dead, 16 million cap hit), this just doesn't seem likely. 

My guess? Teddy Bridgewater. If Smith isn't ready to go, Bridgewater can likely be had at a reasonable cost, and given that he would enter the season as the defacto starter, that may be something that really appeals to him regardless of the salary attached to it. A 1 year, 8-12 million dollar deal to re-establish value as a starting quarterback in the NFL makes a lot of sense for both parties, tbh. Teddy has started 1 game in 3 seasons, so I think that being a starter sooner rather than later may appeal to him more. With guys like Tannehill, Flacco, etc on the market, Bridgewater is not going to be the premiere quarterback available as was thought at the beginning of the season. 

3 hours ago, paul-mac said:

Bridgewater stays in New Orleans on some kind of incentive laden contract 

 

Already touched on this, but I find this unlikely unless the other teams go in different directions or New Orleans somehow is able to commit to him as a starter in the near future, and do so  monetarily. They have no money to pay him, and have guys coming up on contract extensions. Michael Thomas, for example, can sign his extension after this year, I believe. Sheldon Rankins after next season. Peat gets a big raise next year on his option, and will need a new deal if they wish to continue with him. Paying Bridgewater a good money deal seems unlikely, and if they can't keep him there monetarily, other jobs with more likely starting options may be more appealing. 

My Guess: Bridgewater goes to Was, New Orleans ends up with some type of back up like CJ Bearthard or something. 

3 hours ago, paul-mac said:

Denver keep Keenum since he’s got some guaranteed money

If Denver is on the Broncos roster at the start of the year, it's a fail not only on the part of the Broncos, but also on the part of teams such as the Jets and Bills. There's no reason for him to be on the Broncos. Keenum's contract should not be holding the Broncos back from getting better. If they trade him, there's almost no dead money for the Broncos, which frees them up to go after a better quarterback. The Jets and Bills could both use back up quarterbacks, and both have gobs of cap space, so absorbing keenum for a year at a bloated 18m isn't back breaking. They aren't going to be able to spend that money anyway. There's no reason that either of those teams or the broncos shouldn't be talking about a Brock Osweiler type trade where the Jets / Bills secure a decent future pick (2nd or third round or whatever), which would be highly beneficial to teams building upward. 

Jettisoning Case then frees up 18 million for the Broncos, which would allow them to try and secure another quarterback such as Flacco or Foles. 

My guess? Denver ends up with Nick Foles. 

3 hours ago, paul-mac said:

Raiders keep Derek Carr

 

Agreed. 

3 hours ago, paul-mac said:

Bengals and Dolphins keep Tannehill and Dalton for one more year 

 

I agree that I think the Bengals keep Dalton. I think Tannehill may be gone though. I'm not sure it makes a whole ton of sense to move off him and then sign someone like Flacco for a year, but it's not like they haven't made questionable decisions such as that before. They are already looking at 2020 quarterbacks if the rumors are true, so whoever quarterbacks in 2019 is probably a one year spot starter. Honestly, probably makes the most sense to keep Tannehill, but if they don't, I could see Flacco here (or Jax, as previously stated) 

The Giants take Haskins early in the draft, then can decide if they want to keep Eli for a year to sit Haskins, or just throw him to the wolves immediately. 

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Redskins: Alex smith retires. Trade for Joe Flacco. Draft Daniel Jones. 

Broncos: Keep Keenum. Draft Kyler Murray 

Giants: Keep Eli. Draft Haskins. 

Jacksonville: Sign Teddy Bridgewater 

Miami: Sign Nick Foles  

Patriots: Sign Ryan Tannehill ( Typical Patriots ) 

New Orleans: Trades for Nick Mullens 

 

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6 hours ago, bosko1616 said:

Redskins: Alex smith retires.

Smith isn't retiring. Why would he? His salary is fully guaranteed for this upcoming season, and by retiring, he'd basically be giving up 15 million. Heck, I'm not even sure he'd retire after the season. I'm not sure how it works, but his 2020 is fully guaranteed for injury as well, which is another 16 million. I'm not sure if the injury can date back to 2018 or how that all works, but if that injury is legitimately career ending and he can't pass a physical, I'm assuming he's going to count on the books. That'd be potentially 31 million dollars that he's giving up by retiring. Just no way I see him (or anyone) doing that. 

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Saints gave up a 3rd for Teddy, I'd think they have some longer- term plans for him than a 1 year rental. At the very least, they need to get something for him, especially since the saints don't have a 1st, 3rd or 4th in the 2019 draft


Here's a note from OTC on the cap re-structure they did

According to ESPN's Field Yates the Saints converted $4.065 million of Bridgewater's contract to a signing bonus and added to voidable years to decrease Bridgewater's cap number by $2.71 million. If the Saints fail to sign Bridgewater to a new contract those savings will all count on the 2019 salary cap.

https://overthecap.com/player/teddy-bridgewater/2971/

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