Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2019 - Cardinals at 1

[VegasDan]

Nice work. Waiting for my team.

Edited May 1, 2019 by VegasDan

[FinSting]

Holy crap this is a serious time-suck to put something this huge together and type it all up. Thanks for being you! 

[Ozzy]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

Meh. I thought it was an okay haul. I wasn’t blown away by any means, so I don’t mind OPs ranking.

I liked the Jonah pick. Pratt should be a solid but unspectacular starter sooner than later. Finley is backup material. Wren has a long way to go, but the tools are there. The Sample pick was downright poor and a weak display at maneuvering around the board. I liked taking a chance on an uber talent like Anderson to get healthy and regain form. If he hits we could have one of, if not the best backfields in football. 

All in all, I was underwhelmed and thought there was better players to be had. I’d be singing a different tune if that trade to move up for Taylor or Ford came to fruition. We came into the draft looking to upgrade the offensive line and add some athleticism/talent to the LB room. I think we only accomplished one of those things.

They got Jonah Williams and Michael Jordan one of the better more versatile interior OL in the draft in the 4th round.  Sure Jordan at times disappointed but if left at guard I think he has a lot of potential and has played at a pretty high level since his FR year at one of the biggest programs in the nation.  

Pratt I feel is very athletic so not sure how he did not improve the athletic ability of the Bengals LB room.  The kid is a former safety, has rounded into a LB and has great potential is built very well and can obviously run well, had a great season this past year on NC State, 104 tackles, 10 TFL, 6 sacks, 2 FF.  I feel Finley has starter potential and has a lot of ability and knows how to play the game, but if you do not like Finley I can see some not being super impressed with this draft I suppose.

Also I just do not get the Drew Sample hate?  Do you hate blocking TEs or what?  Since when is blocking in the run game and pass game from the TE position a bad thing, and he can catch a pass every now and again as well.  I like good solid blocking tight ends, sure it would be nice if he was more elite as a pass catcher but if he was he would have been a 1st rounder.  Sure maybe he was more of a 3rd round pick but could argue Pratt is more of a 2nd rounder they got in the 3rd and Finley is a 2nd rounder they got in the 4th so it balances out.  Maybe they could have got Sternberger or Warring instead at TE who has tons of upside but neither one are close to the blocker Sample is, so they picked QB protection and run game help from the TE spot over passing game production.

 

[onejayhawk]

I'm used to seeing the Chiefs up by this point. That's good news. More interesting is that none of the AFC West teams are up with more than 1/4 of the teams posted. 

J

[Scoundrel]

The Drew Sample pick reminds me of when Denver drafted Richard Quinn in the second round under McDaniels. However Sample was more productive and is more athletic than Quinn. I think Sample is successful unlike Quinn.

[goldfishwars]

Drew Sample caught 46 passes in four years.

[goldfishwars]

22. Houston Texans

Selections
23. Houston Texans - Tytus Howard  [ OT ] Alabama State
54. Houston Texans - Lonnie Johnson Jr.  [ CB ] Kentucky
55. Houston Texans - Max Scharping  [ OT ] Northern Illinois
86. Houston Texans - Kahale Warring  [ TE ] San Diego State
161. Houston Texans - Charles Omenihu  [ DE ] Texas
195. Houston Texans - Xavier Crawford  [ CB ] Central Michigan
220. Houston Texans - Cullen Gillaspia  [ RB ] Texas A&M

Picks Heading In
23. 
54.
55. 
86. 
161.
195. 
220. 

Favorite Pick 
Kahale Warring - The pick which apparently sent Ryan Griffin on a rampage. And it should have because Warring is a big talent with a high ceiling to grow into, with the caveat that he's still learning the game. Still, he could become a real weapon in this offense, if (feel like I’m going to say this a lot with this class) if he can grow into that potential. He’s a real rocked up specimen and looked mean as hell at the combine. On film, his athleticism really jumps off so it's exciting to see what he does at the next level. 

Overview
It still confuses me that Rick Smith is no longer the GM in Houston, I have no idea why. The new guy, Brian Gaine has been running operations for a year now and is he an android? An algorithm? Zero moves, zero trades – just everyone taken where their picks landed. If he’s not an android then everyone heard his heart explode when the Eagles traded up one spot ahead of them to take Andre Dillard. That was the second gut-punch move of the first round after the Steelers ruined Cincinnati’s night. Man, they must have been lining up the Champagne bottles, hi-fiving each other on the low and quietly punching the air as their pick approached and then, BOOM. He’s off the Philly and gone forever. 

Still, I’m not convinced by the recovery. Whether their minds were still fogged by the devastation of seeing the man who could have kept their quarterback on a plane when they travelled to games, but the answer was Tytus Howard from tiny Alabama State. Now there’s nothing wrong with Tytus Howard, there’s a lot to like and a lot of NFL teams liked him a lot more than the media/draftnik guys and were willing to take him high and that’s important. So naturally the pick gets some criticism, but I’m just surprised they, of all teams, went in that direction knowing they need a dude now. Like right now. There was a target on your back for a reason, you don’t have a starting caliber tackle and you still might not right away unless Howard can defy early expectations. And if he doesn’t, then taking him over more experienced linemen who were available (Cody Ford, Dalton Risner, Kaleb McGary, Greg Little, Jawaan Taylor with no caps) is going to look really bad in years to come. 

That aside, there’s stuff to like about this Texans draft. A lot of NFL teams liked Lonnie Johnson, a big press man corner who has some nice athletic traits and was rumored to go in the first round just before the draft kicked off. That fits a big need if he can smooth off the rough edges. Max Scharping, another small school lineman, comes at a better price at 55. He had a big game against Brian Burns which was as impressive a show as any tackle drafted put out this year. Again, he looks the part – but you wonder how much the small school matters to the short term development the Texans need. We will see, but I feel good about his longer-term prospects at least. 

Charles Omenihu in the 5th was a bit of a get for someone who was touted as a potential 1st round pick. I honestly would not have blinked if he was taken by the Patriots in the 2nd as he seemed like the kind of lengthy inside/outside pain-to-deal-with they like. I don’t know if there’s a story there, but Houston could definitely do with some quality depth on the defensive line. Xavier Crawford is another lengthy press corner, who allowed less than 40 percent of passes to be completed this last year. Perhaps he can come into contention. Cullen Gillaspia played full back with the Aggies, I do not know much about the guy other than his surname looks like a typo. 
 

[SmittyBacall]

10 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Pratt I feel is very athletic so not sure how he did not improve the athletic ability of the Bengals LB room. 

Does he improve the overall athletic ability? To some extent yes. But he's not the 3-down coverage LB we desperately needed and came into the draft ready to take at 11 (Bush). He's fast and is a converted safety, but there is still clearly a lack of fluidity when you watch the tape. He's a pretty stiff, straight-line athlete. I don't think we've improved enough in that area to call it a success. My guess is LB is still a need going into the 2020 draft unless Malik Jefferson shows some potential.

10 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Also I just do not get the Drew Sample hate?  Do you hate blocking TEs or what?  Since when is blocking in the run game and pass game from the TE position a bad thing, and he can catch a pass every now and again as well. 

This isn't about Sample the prospect as much as it's about the value of the prospect and the role he plays. I like Sample. Do I hate blocking TEs? No. Do I hate drafting blocking TEs 52nd overall? Yes. That role is not worth a 2nd round pick. The value there was so obviously poor when comparing other positions/prospects that were on the board. And it's not even like we were desperate for a TE. He's coming in as the third TE behind a freshly signed Uzomah and Eifert. I understand the argument that our team is placing an emphasis on running the ball, and Sample can contribute there. But I take issue in deciding to forgo the BPA approach and fill for need. That is a huge no-no in my books, and that's what the hate comes down to. 2nd round picks are another chance outside the 1st to get game-changing, impact players (like a Jessie Bates, or Carlos Dunlap). I don't see that potential with Sample.

If we took Sample at 11 overall, would you be defending the pick? If not, do you hate blocking TEs? Or is it because the draft slot doesn't match the prospects value?

[ET80]

5 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

It still confuses me that Rick Smith is no longer the GM in Houston, I have no idea why. 

Really? I'll admit that Brian Gaine isn't exactly inspiring confidence, but Rick Smith was atrocious. Paying Brock Osweiler $36mm GTD, losing out on Nick Chubb because you had to ship off a 2nd round pick to get rid of Osweiler, signing Ed Reed for $15mm for about six games, letting AJ Bouye walk, letting Brandon Brooks walk, letting Glover Quin walk, busting on every second round pick since 2010 (save for 2015, I'll give him Berdnardrick McKinney) busting on every 3rd round pick, 4th round pick, 5th round pick - Rick Smith was a relic of the Gary Kubiak era, and really put this team into a bind, talent wise. 

As far as this draft - there's a clear theme, and that is looking for raw, athletic guys with high character and intelligence. I'm not a fan of the whole Andre Dillard/Tytus Howard debacle (it's similar to when Rick Smith got hopped for Teddy Bridgewater in 2014) but I like Howard... and I don't think I'm the only one, as he visited a bunch of teams this draft season. Everyone was trying to be the smart guy in the room and land the uber-athletic T. Given the run on T in the early 2nd, I don't think the Texans could have got him at 54/55. Trading down a few spots to get an extra pick would be nice, but not going to beat anyone up on it. Warring is an everyday/every down TE, he'll turn into an immediate contributor across the middle and down the seams, which will open up routes outside the numbers (as if DeAndre Hopkins needed more help getting open and making plays). Johnson is a physical press guy, which will help the secondary against speedier guys (specifically, TY Hilton) Omenihu will provide pressure on passing downs and Will probably compete with Angelo Blackson for the starting spot opposite JJ Watt. Xavier Crawford looks like a fiesty slot CB who can contribute a few years down the line, and... Cullen Gullaspia! A 12th man at Texas A&M, he's a wrecking ball at FB and will probably be a major player on ST. He's gonna be a fan favorite from day one, that much I can say. 

I think both T will play early, and they'll look pretty good. Remember - the Texans don't operate a typical passing game, I'd say that ~70% of pass sets come out of shotgun/RPO sets with Deshaun Watson's athleticism allowing a lot of creative pass blocking sets. You'll see a lot of rolling pockets, a few trap and pulls to set the pocket, TEs such as Daniel Fells or Jordan Akins motioning out to chip or set the edge - neither T is going to really have to have a flawless kick-step into their set, they just need to engage and ride out the defender from collapsing the pocket. 

This (very optimistic) viewpoint notwithstanding - the Texans probably took a step backwards. Indy was already ahead as evident by the playoff game (and only got scarier by adding Justin Houston, Parris Campbell and Spencer Ware) Jacksonville probably pulled even at absolute worse (Josh Allen will be a tough assignment for either rookie and Juwaan Taylor is the type of T that gives Jadevion Clowney a lot of problems) and Tennessee looks to be a QB away from making a ton of noise in the division (it COULD be Ryan Tannehill, who knows). This being said, I think this could be a foundational draft for Houston - IF (big IF) these young, raw and intelligent guys can develop down a path that their intelligence and athleticism can dictate. They'll have their bookend Ts for a decade, their #2 target in Warring, their future #1 CB in Johnson and a host of core guys who can build along with Watson, Hopkins, McKinney, Zach Cunningham and Justin Reid. These guys will be cheap as well, so they'll be able to re-up with Watson for big bucks and still have money left over to sign these guys a year or two later.

If not...well, they're young and raw enough for another HC to pick up and develop into good players.

[goldfishwars]

34 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Really? I'll admit that Brian Gaine isn't exactly inspiring confidence, but Rick Smith was atrocious. 

 

I didn't mean he should be GM, I just keep forgetting he isn't because he was there for so long and Gaine gets rarely talked about. 

[ET80]

Just now, goldfishwars said:

I didn't mean he should be GM, I just keep forgetting he isn't because he was there for so long and Gaine gets rarely talked about. 

To be blunt - Bill O'Brien is the GM, Gaine just serves as the mouthpiece at times. Might get his coffee, too. 

[Ozzy]

43 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Does he improve the overall athletic ability? To some extent yes. But he's not the 3-down coverage LB we desperately needed and came into the draft ready to take at 11 (Bush). He's fast and is a converted safety, but there is still clearly a lack of fluidity when you watch the tape. He's a pretty stiff, straight-line athlete. I don't think we've improved enough in that area to call it a success. My guess is LB is still a need going into the 2020 draft unless Malik Jefferson shows some potential.

This isn't about Sample the prospect as much as it's about the value of the prospect and the role he plays. I like Sample. Do I hate blocking TEs? No. Do I hate drafting blocking TEs 52nd overall? Yes. That role is not worth a 2nd round pick. The value there was so obviously poor when comparing other positions/prospects that were on the board. And it's not even like we were desperate for a TE. He's coming in as the third TE behind a freshly signed Uzomah and Eifert. I understand the argument that our team is placing an emphasis on running the ball, and Sample can contribute there. But I take issue in deciding to forgo the BPA approach and fill for need. That is a huge no-no in my books, and that's what the hate comes down to. 2nd round picks are another chance outside the 1st to get game-changing, impact players (like a Jessie Bates, or Carlos Dunlap). I don't see that potential with Sample.

If we took Sample at 11 overall, would you be defending the pick? If not, do you hate blocking TEs? Or is it because the draft slot doesn't match the prospects value?

Sure Bush would have been ideal but obviously that could not happen because he was picked already.  He is very good no doubt and has awesome quickness but at times did not impact the game as much as you would think this past year I felt.  Not sure if that was blocking or what but he was far less impactful and productive this year compared to his SOPH year just like Gary on Michigan as well.  

Few teams in the NFL have a 3rd down coverage linebacker and if they do they are more a hybrid safety type.  Is Pratt that guy, probably not but could play an above average ILB in coverage and a decent SLB in coverage I feel and for a 3rd round pick is a steal I think.

Clearly the Bengals are going to play a lot of two TE sets if not three TE sets.  Could put Sample as a HB or FB at times as well which could make a ton of sense.  Eifert being the receiving weapon then Sample is the blocking and improves the OL and pass pro instantly.  Be a little more physical I think which is great.  Sure they should have not taken him 11th overall, but that did not happen, he was the 52 pick, sure maybe 10-15 picks ahead of where he could have been but so what.  He fits a need and improves that offensive football team, sure the WR group is not as deep but again clearly they are going more two or three TE sets instead of trips wide.  

Once some get more familiar with Sample as a player I do not think it will be an issue anymore about oh you just drafted a blocking TE.  He is extremely versatile in his blocking and blocks well in line and in space also.  Will see what happens with these guys and this group next year but clearly not everyone thinks the same way.

[SmittyBacall]

6 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Clearly the Bengals are going to play a lot of two TE sets if not three TE sets. 

I don't think it's that obvious, actually. By all indications Taylor's offense will be similar to McVay's, and his offense implements 11 personnel for the majority of his snaps (1 TE, 1 RB).

But we're just going around in circles here. You liked the draft. I thought it was okay. We'll leave it at that.

[MWil23]

No real argument with where the Browns are. They didn't have a 1st after the OBJ trade, and the Greedy Williams for a 2nd/5th was great value for them. Hopefully he's lockdown opposite of Denzel. It's interesting with Wilks zone heavy scheme (in the past at least) that he will have 2 great man/press man corners, so I'm intrigued to see if he still utilizes zone heavy, or if he goes with some variation of match coverage, or man to man scheme with a sprinkle of zone.

I think that with cutting Collins and Kirksey will most likely be a camp casualty this year OR next, as well as Schobert being on the last year of his rookie deal (to go with guys like Myles/Baker/Ward who will get PAID in the next 3-4 years) if Mack and TakiTaki are guys to count on going forward, or if they were simply "just BPA". It's clear with all of their picks 3rd-7th that Dorsey values SPARQ/athletic metrics in Day 3. 

They also went D with every pick except for PROSPECT X (OL) and their K, so they must be pretty confident in their offense going forward, especially their OT situation as many speculated.

[Chiefer]

15 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

No real argument with where the Browns are. They didn't have a 1st after the OBJ trade, and the Greedy Williams for a 2nd/5th was great value for them. Hopefully he's lockdown opposite of Denzel. It's interesting with Wilks zone heavy scheme (in the past at least) that he will have 2 great man/press man corners, so I'm intrigued to see if he still utilizes zone heavy, or if he goes with some variation of match coverage, or man to man scheme with a sprinkle of zone.

I think that with cutting Collins and Kirksey will most likely be a camp casualty this year OR next, as well as Schobert being on the last year of his rookie deal (to go with guys like Myles/Baker/Ward who will get PAID in the next 3-4 years) if Mack and TakiTaki are guys to count on going forward, or if they were simply "just BPA". It's clear with all of their picks 3rd-7th that Dorsey values SPARQ/athletic metrics in Day 3. 

They also went D with every pick except for PROSPECT X (OL) and their K, so they must be pretty confident in their offense going forward, especially their OT situation as many speculated.

Yeah Dorsey is a heavy SPARQ guy for sure. Better get used to that