2020 NFL Draft Discussion

[Joe]

52 minutes ago, Golfman said:

I think this is more frequent than you think. Look what NOLA gave us in 2018. We managed to stay in round 1 and get another 1st round pick. 

I'd love to roll with your suggestion under slightly different auspices, but we won't be picking as high, however and we got lucky with New Orleans IMHO. New Orleans was obsessed with Davenport and thinking we may pull the trigger, Loomis gave us an offer we couldn't refuse which in turn led us to be able to trade up and still get a player we wanted who I think has done better than Davenport IMHO.

 

17 hours ago, Golfman said:

Right now the Lions are sitting with the 3rd pick in the draft. I don't want them getting Chase Young. I could see them getting Derick Brown though. ...

...

That is a great question. I've seen him top 10, even top 5. Three might be a bit too high for him, but a position Detroit needs to address since there is no other pass rusher available. They could take the OT from Georgia or a QB which I would doubt that do. 

I honestly think they trade out. Stafford's hurt but he's got plenty left in the tank and really has no true WR1, his OL is constantly in shambles and their best IOL got moved to Center, they have no RB1, and their LB corps is stocked with JAGs outside of Jarrad Davis and MAYBE Christian Jones, and their Safeties are really JAGs as well. There's a reason they're 3-11-1...

If I were Detroit, I trade down to 7 with the Chargers picking up an extra 2nd/3rd and swapping all the day 3 picks and then select AJ Epenesa or Isaiah Simmons. Another, potentially better scenario would be to trade down to 16 with Indy picking up a 2021 1st round, an extra 2nd and or possibly a future 2nd or 3rd with it, more picks, and then select Grant Delpit. Detroit needs to restock their roster with fresh talent, particularly on defense and that's the best way to do it IMHO. They've got some nice pieces at OT and IDL in particular with little around them.

[pacman5252]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I mean, how many times in the last decade has a team traded their SRP and a FRP the following year to get into the 1st round?  I think the last time a team gave up a late SRP and a future FRP was in 2011 when the Saints traded their SRP (56th overall) and a '12 FRP to New England for the 28th overall pick to select Mark Ingram.  The going rate of a FRP is either an early SRP and a fourth, or a fourth round pick and a future FRP.

Yeah, I agree with what you’re saying. It likely won’t happen and there are only a few teams that could make it work.

[CWood21]

9 hours ago, Golfman said:

I think this is more frequent than you think. Look what NOLA gave us in 2018. We managed to stay in round 1 and get another 1st round pick. 

That's a SIGNIFICANTLY different situation than the one we were discussing.  We were talking about punting our FRP for a future FRP while only moving into the second round.  It doesn't happen very often, and the last time it happened with Mark Ingram when the Saints moved up from the late SRP.  Moving back from 14 to 27 (which is where the Saints' pick was) is a significant drop.  Combine that with the fact that the Saints didn't have a SRP as part of the Alvin Kamara trade.  The Saints didn't have the picks in order to move up from 27 to 14 without coughing up their future FRP.

[pacman5252]

After another week, I still feel the same way about the squad. AR trusts 1 wr and we don’t have a TE. I don’t see it in any of our year 2 wrs.

[coachbuns]

1 hour ago, pacman5252 said:

After another week, I still feel the same way about the squad. AR trusts 1 wr and we don’t have a TE. I don’t see it in any of our year 2 wrs.

Green Bay certainly doesn't have a tight end that gets utilized.  Not sure if it's talent (Graham has to go) or offensive scheme.  Lazard has stepped up significantly .. they need a true #2.

[OneTwoSixFive]

After a difference of opinion with @Joe on the quality available at ILB in the 2020 draft I went to look at 'The Draft Network' big board to see how many and where the ILBs were ranked. Any cluster-groupings can help you guess where certain positions might be picked.

You will see there aren't many top prospects, (1 in round 1 , 2 in round 2, 3 in round 3), which is probably why Joe didn't rate the position. However, when you get to round 4 there are a ton of guys. Here is how TDN ranked them.

ROUND 1
10  Isiah Simmons (Clemson)
ROUND 2
37 Dylan Moses (Alabama)
39 Kenneth Murray (Oklahoma)
ROUND 3
74 Monty Rice (Georgia)
95 Malik Harrison (Ohio St.)
98 Jacob Phillips (LSU)
ROUND 4
109 Troy Dye (Oregon)
111 Charles Snowdon (Virginia)
118 Markus Bailey (Purdue)
120 Joe Bachie Jr (Michigan St.)
126 David Woodward (Utah St.)
134 Jordyn Brooks (Texas Tech)
135 Chazz Suratt (N.Carolina)
136 Paddy Fisher (Northwestern)
137 Shaquille Quarterman (Miami)

On the strength of this list there is no viable round one pick for the Packers, unless you are reaching for Moses/Murray (who should be gone by the Packers round 2 pick). There are a couple of round three targets but the real concentration of ILBs is in round 4 - there should be a choice of several targets there, so unless the Packers are fixated on one guy, that round is the 'sweet spot' for ILBs.

On a connected note, the comp picks seem year by year to concentrate more in the early rounds (3 and 4) than later. It might be that the comp pick formula needs a bit of tweaking. This year there are a ridiculous (imo) 10 picks listed as third rounders, and 9 as fourth rounders. Compare that to the projection of just two 5ths and three 6ths, according to overthecap.

 

Edited December 24, 2019 by OneTwoSixFive

[AlexGreen#20]

32 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

After a difference of opinion with @Joe on the quality available at ILB in the 2020 draft I went to look at 'The Draft Network' big board to see how many and where the ILBs were ranked. Any cluster-groupings can help you guess where certain positions might be picked.

You will see there aren't many top prospects, (1 in round 1 , 2 in round 2, 3 in round 3), which is probably why Joe didn't rate the position. However, when you get to round 4 there are a ton of guys. Here is how TDN ranked them.

ROUND 1
10  Isiah Simmons (Clemson)
ROUND 2
37 Dylan Moses (Alabama)
39 Kenneth Murray (Oklahoma)
ROUND 3
74 Monty Rice (Georgia)
95 Malik Harrison (Ohio St.)
98 Jacob Phillips (LSU)
ROUND 4
109 Troy Dye (Oregon)
111 Charles Snowdon (Virginia)
118 Markus Bailey (Purdue)
120 Joe Bachie Jr (Michigan St.)
126 David Woodward (Utah St.)
134 Jordyn Brooks (Texas Tech)
135 Chazz Suratt (N.Carolina)
136 Paddy Fisher (Northwestern)
137 Shaquille Quarterman (Miami)

On the strength of this list there is no viable round one pick for the Packers, unless you are reaching for Moses/Murray (who should be gone by the Packers round 2 pick). There are a couple of round three targets but the real concentration of ILBs is in round 4 - there should be a choice of several targets there, so unless the Packers are fixated on one guy, that round is the 'sweet spot' for ILBs.

On a connected note, the comp picks seem year by year to concentrate more in the early rounds (3 and 4) than later. It might be that the comp pick formula needs a bit of tweaking. This year there are a ridiculous (imo) 10 picks listed as third rounders, and 9 as fourth rounders. Compare that to the projection of just two 5ths and three 6ths, according to overthecap.

 

They haven't updated the criteria since I posted it back in like 2013. I'll post another one this year.

The thing is the league only gives out 32 picks, so the rise of contract values is pushing things into the 3rd and 4th round based on the 5 year old projections.  

 

[OneTwoSixFive]

2 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

They haven't updated the criteria since I posted it back in like 2013. I'll post another one this year.

The thing is the league only gives out 32 picks, so the rise of contract values is pushing things into the 3rd and 4th round based on the 5 year old projections.  

 

Understood, thanks.

[Joe]

2 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

After a difference of opinion with @Joe on the quality available at ILB in the 2020 draft I went to look at 'The Draft Network' big board to see how many and where the ILBs were ranked. Any cluster-groupings can help you guess where certain positions might be picked.

You will see there aren't many top prospects, (1 in round 1 , 2 in round 2, 3 in round 3), which is probably why Joe didn't rate the position. However, when you get to round 4 there are a ton of guys. Here is how TDN ranked them.

ROUND 1
10  Isiah Simmons (Clemson)
ROUND 2
37 Dylan Moses (Alabama)
39 Kenneth Murray (Oklahoma)
ROUND 3
74 Monty Rice (Georgia)
95 Malik Harrison (Ohio St.)
98 Jacob Phillips (LSU)
ROUND 4
109 Troy Dye (Oregon)
111 Charles Snowdon (Virginia)
118 Markus Bailey (Purdue)
120 Joe Bachie Jr (Michigan St.)
126 David Woodward (Utah St.)
134 Jordyn Brooks (Texas Tech)
135 Chazz Suratt (N.Carolina)
136 Paddy Fisher (Northwestern)
137 Shaquille Quarterman (Miami)

On the strength of this list there is no viable round one pick for the Packers, unless you are reaching for Moses/Murray (who should be gone by the Packers round 2 pick). There are a couple of round three targets but the real concentration of ILBs is in round 4 - there should be a choice of several targets there, so unless the Packers are fixated on one guy, that round is the 'sweet spot' for ILBs.

On a connected note, the comp picks seem year by year to concentrate more in the early rounds (3 and 4) than later. It might be that the comp pick formula needs a bit of tweaking. This year there are a ridiculous (imo) 10 picks listed as third rounders, and 9 as fourth rounders. Compare that to the projection of just two 5ths and three 6ths, according to overthecap.

 

Those rankings, according to Drafttek at least, haven't fluctuated too much from what you posted with the exception of Malik Harrison and Jacob Phillips ascending up the board a bit. LIS in other posts not related to our previous conversation: ILB is actually pretty strong on Day 3 and I really liked the 6th rounder @AlexGreen#20 pegged in his most recent mock.

[HighCalebR]

Yo now that you all are talking about ILB's. any way Isaiah Simmons makes it late first or is he pretty gone?

I haven't got into it much yet and I think ill start with the LB's

[Joe]

On 12/25/2019 at 2:35 AM, HighCalebR said:

Yo now that you all are talking about ILB's. any way Isaiah Simmons makes it late first or is he pretty gone?

I haven't got into it much yet and I think ill start with the LB's

Pretty sure he's gone. Someone will be enamored with his skillset and maybe even overdraft him if he craps the bed at the combine. In any case, we need to key in on the top-end talent at IDL and/or OT. We've all acknowledged that WR is deep so we can lie back on that early on and draft for need.

[HighCalebR]

15 minutes ago, Joe said:

Pretty sure he's gone. Someone will be enamored with his skillset and maybe even overdraft him if he craps the bed at the combine. In any case, we need to key in on the top-end talent at IDL and/or OT. We've all acknowledged that WR is deep so we can lie back on that early on and draft for need.

I think theres ways to play around with it a bit through FA so we dont pigeonhole ourselves. Pending how far down we get in the order I've seen some cut ups where he plays legit deep safety snaps. 

LIS I havent looked into anybody much but if he could play man a bit out of the slot I see serious potential. If the legit 1st round talents gone and hes sitting there... if the man ability isnt there at all I don't advocate though.

[spilltray]

Just because WR is deep doesn't mean you should wait. We need guys who can be legit #1-2s, not a bunch more MVS and ESB type guys.

[cannondale]

10 minutes ago, spilltray said:

Just because WR is deep doesn't mean you should wait. We need guys who can be legit #1-2s, not a bunch more MVS and ESB type guys.

All about value. We need legit #1 DL and OT too. Those guys run out much faster. Especially DL

[Spartacus]

6 hours ago, spilltray said:

Just because WR is deep doesn't mean you should wait. We need guys who can be legit #1-2s, not a bunch more MVS and ESB type guys.

I agree with you. I think we do the same thing we did with Savage last year. Pick your pick of the litter. Don't leave it to the last 1 or 2 WRs left in the bottom of the 2nd even if they are on the same "Tier".