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2020 Draft Talk


swede700

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47 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

Hey! Machine guns can be pretty damn accurate!

Sure, I guess they probably still are more accurate than Tarvaris, but that doesn't make them the most accurate of the firearms industry...but then again, I'm not an expert, as I was not in the military, unlike yourself.  xD

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1 hour ago, swede700 said:

Oh, sure, but knowing who's going to be a good franchise QB is one of the most difficult tasks to accomplish in the first place.

Right, but I am talking about giving up some capital to try to go after the guy you think can be that player.  I would rather give up an extra 1st or trade a good veteran to try to get that guy.

 

Some would say the definition of insanity is doing the same things over and over, but expecting different results.  I think this franchise has been good at times with mediocre QB play, but never good enough.  At times this team has been described as being a QB away.  I do think the team has tried to get better at QB (Teddy, Bradford, Cousins), but it hasn't work and we seem to largely have similar results.  I am in favor of trying a different approach and seeing if that works out.

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24 minutes ago, Snake Plissken said:

Right, but I am talking about giving up some capital to try to go after the guy you think can be that player.  I would rather give up an extra 1st or trade a good veteran to try to get that guy.

 

Some would say the definition of insanity is doing the same things over and over, but expecting different results.  I think this franchise has been good at times with mediocre QB play, but never good enough.  At times this team has been described as being a QB away.  I do think the team has tried to get better at QB (Teddy, Bradford, Cousins), but it hasn't work and we seem to largely have similar results.  I am in favor of trying a different approach and seeing if that works out.

I can understand that, but I also understand that they haven't really been in a position to do that...I think the case can be made to do that in this particular draft, because they are so cap-strapped and they are pretty set almost everywhere else on the team...there isn't going to be one huge glaring need that they have to address.  So, if they think that Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, or Jordan Love is that guy (I'm not really sure if I think Tua is guaranteed to be a good NFL starter) then they have to do what they can to go get him, even if that means giving up multiple 1st round picks.  

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1 hour ago, Snake Plissken said:

Right, but I am talking about giving up some capital to try to go after the guy you think can be that player.  I would rather give up an extra 1st or trade a good veteran to try to get that guy.

 

I would be in favor of this approach as well...but, I wouldn't be willing to put all my poker chips in the middle of the table on the bat that the guy is THE guy, as some suggest they'd be willing to do. 

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55 minutes ago, swede700 said:

I can understand that, but I also understand that they haven't really been in a position to do that...I think the case can be made to do that in this particular draft, because they are so cap-strapped and they are pretty set almost everywhere else on the team...there isn't going to be one huge glaring need that they have to address.  So, if they think that Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, or Jordan Love is that guy (I'm not really sure if I think Tua is guaranteed to be a good NFL starter) then they have to do what they can to go get him, even if that means giving up multiple 1st round picks.  

Yep.  That is my point as well. Particularly the point about this particular draft.  I don't think we need to wait until the Cousins contract is over.  I also am not especially fond of taking a Bridgewater-type guy late first or second.  So to sum up:

1.) The time to get a franchise QB is as soon as possible (i.e. the 2020 Draft).

2.) Identify the QB(s) that meet the criteria.

3.)  Spend the appropriate resources to acquire (this likely requires trading up).

4.  Set up the new QB for 10 plus years of success with a good development plan and a solid team (which we should have--Defense, Running Game, Offensive Weapons)when ready to start.

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Knowing what I know now about QB's of recent years (5 to 10) and their draft position, the best return on investment was Russell Wilson picked by Seattle in the 3rd round.  I don't think that there was a draft analyst alive at the time who thought Wilson should've been a first round draft choice.  Value can be found after the first 5 picks in a draft, which has been Minnesota's QB draft strategy, but it hasn't worked out for this team.

Conversely, Matthew Stafford was thought by most draft pros to be a sure fire hit quarterback, and he was taken with the first pick of the 2009 draft.  Stafford is a good quarterback that didn't live up to others expectations.  Part of it has been the mess of Detroit as a franchise.  But, he has also played on some decent Lions teams and didn't manage to get them into the playoffs, or win a playoff game.  His value, in relation to draft position, is pretty poor.

Which of these quarterbacks, if the Vikings could take a do-over, would I draft?  Wilson.  I think the Vikings would have won the Super Bowl, if the 2017 team had Russell Wilson under center.  Stafford may have gotten the same results as Keenum (even though Stafford's a better quarterback.)

So, draft gurus on this board.  Who's the next Russell Wilson that we should draft?  Who's the next Matthew Stafford that we might want to not draft...at least not draft 1st overall?

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It's interesting thinking about Zimmer as a Parcells disciple, and how that might be influencing Zimmer's opinions about QBs.

Parcells never really had great QB play. He benched the QB he inherited in Phil Simms and almost lost his job because of it. His two SB wins in New York were with a QB with a negative TD/INT ratio (1986) and with a backup QB. First three seasons with Bledsoe in NE were bad. Bledsoe was good the year they went to the SB, but it's not like it was an incredible year that carried the team. With the Jets he had Neil O'Donnell and Vinny Testaverde. After a year in Dallas with Quincy Carter, he brought in Testaverde and Bledsoe. His best QB he ever coached might be Tony Romo, who he developed from a UDFA to a Pro Bowler.

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4 hours ago, swede700 said:

I call BS there...I can agree on Ponder and Cousins, but to suggest that Teddy and Bradford weren't blue-chippers and didn't have top 10 upside is a ridiculous take not based in objective analysis.  

I liked Teddy a lot when he was in the draft. I can't get behind. Bradford as a blue-chopper or a QB with top ten upside at the time the Vikings traded him. He was proven to be a mediocre QB by the time the Vikings traded for him. The Rams had already traded him away. The Eagles had already drafted Carson Wentz second overall. Neither of those things happen if either of those teams think Bradford was a blue-chipper or if they thought he has top 10 upside.  

That said, no matter how sure of a thing any of us think any player is, he is not that sure. Even the pro scouts can't figure it out with that degree of certainty. I have seen too many sure things flounder in the NFL to believe anything NCAA player is all that sure of a thing when projecting to the NFL. No matter how much of a sure thing the Vikings scouts think Lawrence is, this is football and all it takes is one hit to change that. The injury risk alone makes it impossible for any college player to truly be a sure thing.

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34 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

I liked Teddy a lot when he was in the draft. I can't get behind. Bradford as a blue-chopper or a QB with top ten upside at the time the Vikings traded him. He was proven to be a mediocre QB by the time the Vikings traded for him. The Rams had already traded him away. The Eagles had already drafted Carson Wentz second overall. Neither of those things happen if either of those teams think Bradford was a blue-chipper or if they thought he has top 10 upside.  

That said, no matter how sure of a thing any of us think any player is, he is not that sure. Even the pro scouts can't figure it out with that degree of certainty. I have seen too many sure things flounder in the NFL to believe anything NCAA player is all that sure of a thing when projecting to the NFL. No matter how much of a sure thing the Vikings scouts think Lawrence is, this is football and all it takes is one hit to change that. The injury risk alone makes it impossible for any college player to truly be a sure thing.

I kind of think of Bradford in the same way I think of Stafford...except Bradford was the unluckiest cuss to play QB this century!  He was on a god awful Rams team, with an offensive line that makes Vikings' look like the great wall of China!  And, he got injured. Pretty severely! Then he went to Philadelphia, under Chip Kelly, which was not really good for what Bradford offers. And, he got injured!  Finally, he makes it to the Vikings. A team loaded with talent.  His first game as the starter was an absolutely beautiful, near perfect game.  And, he got injured!  After that he was a sitting duck for any defensive pressure whatsoever.  I feel kind of sorry for Sam.  His problem was not that he was a bad quarterback...judged objectively...he was better than average.  He just suffered injury after injury after injury.

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