Packers Training Camp 2019

[TheBitzMan]

14 hours ago, SSG said:

It was one of the most expensive off seasons in our franchise's history and we didn't exactly get a difference maker.  I'd argue the Za'Darius Smith contract was absolutely reckless given how mediocre of a football player he'd been over his career.  He was an ordinary player before an out of the ordinary contract year and now he's being paid like a perennial all pro.  There is absolutely nothing impressive about his NFL career.  Contracts don't generally work out when you are having to write huge checks to average players who just had by far their best year in a contract year.

Gute signed young, ascending players and not the over the hill FAs. On top of that you are dead wrong about them not being difference makers...

Z. Smith had 59 pressures last season on 457 passing snaps, good for 17th in the league tied with Clowney. 

P. Smith had 53 pressures on 491 passing snaps, good for 22nd in the league. 

For reference the leader, Dee Ford, had 77 pressures on 604 passing snaps. Only 18 more than Z. Smith on 147 more snaps. 

Packers players:

• Clay - 30 pressures on 430 snaps, 56th ranked
• Fackrell - 21 on 348 - 83rd 
• Gilbert - 21 on 269 - 83rd 
• Perry - 13 on 175 - 100th

While the Smiths might not be in the elite tier, they are very good players. Our best EDGE last year was a bottom of the league starter. Replacing those players with very good players is "Difference Making". There was nothing reckless at all about what Gute did. 

 

[AlexGreen#20]

11 hours ago, St Vince said:

Wow. We  complained year after year when Ted sat on his hands and let all the big fish get away in FA  and this was even when Aaron was on a cap friendly deal and we had money to spend.

Now that we finally have a GM that's aggressive and willing to spend money in FA he's reckless? 

People forget you always overpay in FA because it's a bidding war for the top players. That's what happens when you don't draft well.

Every guy we signed had other suitors. Z. Smith was on the Packers radar even when Ted was in charge. Think I read Ted tried to trade for him one year. 

I'm happy with the haul we got in FA, far from reckless. Guess some people would've been happy with Perry,  an unproductive Matthews and fake tough Daniels who was a bad fit for Pattine's scheme.

False, we have more unused cap space today than we did during any season of Thompson's tenure in GB.

[craig]

10 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

we have more unused cap space today than we did during any season of Thompson's tenure in GB.

That's true since the Daniels release.  

I haven't gone back and checked, so please correct as appropriate.  But I'm guessing it's a trend around the league?  That the very year you do big-bonus signings, that teams carry uncommonly-large unused cap space, which then helps to cover the massive cap-hit spike to come the following season?  

Signing bonuses cause small cap-hits in year one but a large spike in cap-hits for year two.  So I imagine teams may routinely try to anticipate the 2nd-year spike by protecting and rolling-over 1st-year cap space?  And since 1st-year cap hits are small, that's doable?  

 

[Donzo]

Where do you find pressure stats these days?

I use to get them at PFF,  but I choose not to pay for NFL content anymore; so, I'm looking for a free sight.

TY!

[TheBitzMan]

5 minutes ago, Donzo said:

Where do you find pressure stats these days?

I use to get them at PFF,  but I choose not to pay for NFL content anymore; so, I'm looking for a free sight.

TY!

Those were from PFF, I know pro football reference has a QB Hits stat but I don't know anywhere to get a true pressures stat. 

[incognito_man]

32 minutes ago, craig said:

That's true since the Daniels release.  

I haven't gone back and checked, so please correct as appropriate.  But I'm guessing it's a trend around the league?  That the very year you do big-bonus signings, that teams carry uncommonly-large unused cap space, which then helps to cover the massive cap-hit spike to come the following season?  

Signing bonuses cause small cap-hits in year one but a large spike in cap-hits for year two.  So I imagine teams may routinely try to anticipate the 2nd-year spike by protecting and rolling-over 1st-year cap space?  And since 1st-year cap hits are small, that's doable?  

 

Right now GB is $5million above the cap for 2020, so this makes sense at first glance. Jimmy Graham looks like the only potential significant cut (would save $8million) as well.

[St Vince]

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

False, we have more unused cap space today than we did during any season of Thompson's tenure in GB.

Very shocking if true, will have to research that.

[Cheech]

1 hour ago, TheBitzMan said:

Gute signed young, ascending players and not the over the hill FAs. On top of that you are dead wrong about them not being difference makers...

Z. Smith had 59 pressures last season on 457 passing snaps, good for 17th in the league tied with Clowney. 

P. Smith had 53 pressures on 491 passing snaps, good for 22nd in the league. 

For reference the leader, Dee Ford, had 77 pressures on 604 passing snaps. Only 18 more than Z. Smith on 147 more snaps. 

Packers players:

• Clay - 30 pressures on 430 snaps, 56th ranked
• Fackrell - 21 on 348 - 83rd 
• Gilbert - 21 on 269 - 83rd 
• Perry - 13 on 175 - 100th

While the Smith's might not be in the elite tier, they are very good players. Our best EDGE last year was a bottom of the league starter. Replacing those players with very good players is "Difference Making". There was nothing reckless at all about what Gute did. 

 

I think the bigger picture is that both of the Smiths fit Pettine's scheme to a "T".   We all know that you're going to overpay in free agency.  I'd call it a calculated risk that Gute took here.  

The pressure stats indicate that we aren't getting elite players/production for the price.  But the work that both of these guys do in containment on the edge will make the entire defense better.  The projected improvement in both pressures and run defense over the cluster that we had last year should be well worth it, in my estimation.

[St Vince]

In

2 hours ago, TheBitzMan said:

While the Smith's might not be in the elite tier, they are very good players. Our best EDGE last year was a bottom of the league starter. Replacing those players with very good players is "Difference Making". There was nothing reckless at all about what Gute did. 

 

I put Smith a notch under Mack and Clowney. You weren't getting those guys anyways. The next tier was Frank Clark and Dee Ford both whom you would had to give away draft capital to acquire. Guess my question would be is Smith a drop off from those two? I don't think so and I think he's on their tier and we didn't lose draft capital to get him.

[cannondale]

It would be much more fun had we kept the cap space, and rolled with our talent poor roster and went 3-13

[dafreak]

1 hour ago, St Vince said:

In

I put Smith a notch under Mack and Clowney. You weren't getting those guys anyways. The next tier was Frank Clark and Dee Ford both whom you would had to give away draft capital to acquire. Guess my question would be is Smith a drop off from those two? I don't think so and I think he's on their tier and we didn't lose draft capital to get him.

St. Vince, I am honored by your sig....We will know soon enough.....

[SSG]

14 hours ago, St Vince said:

What difference maker did you want?  Mack? There's no way this team could handle Mack and Rodgers contracts without crippling the team. He was the only difference maker out there. 

Having the highest paid players on both sides of the ball would've been very "reckless".  We got one of the guys in a lot of guys mocks in Z Smith, Shaq Barrett was the other.

I don't agree with this at all.  When you are paying Mack you know what you are getting.  You are getting a perennial all pro that has shown the ability over his whole career to wreck games.  Zadarius Smith is the opposite of that.  He's had 1 good year in his 4 year career.  Before the out of the ordinary contract year he was a pedestrian rotational player who'd shown very little ability to rush the passer.  He's now being paid like he's an elite pass rusher despite never having shown that he consistently play at that level.  Contract year standouts don't generally work out for the teams who are writing the massive checks.  

His contract would almost be the equivalent of paying Allison top 5 WR money if he were to have 1100 yards and 8 TDs this year.  

[Joe]

6 minutes ago, SSG said:

I don't agree with this at all.  When you are paying Mack you know what you are getting.  You are getting a perennial all pro that has shown the ability over his whole career to wreck games.  Zadarius Smith is the opposite of that.  He's had 1 good year in his 4 year career.  Before the out of the ordinary contract year he was a pedestrian rotational player who'd shown very little ability to rush the passer.  He's now being paid like he's an elite pass rusher despite never having shown that he consistently play at that level.  Contract year standouts don't generally work out for the teams who are writing the massive checks.  

His contract would almost be the equivalent of paying Allison top 5 WR money if he were to have 1100 yards and 8 TDs this year.  

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitZa00.htm

 

I beg to differ...

[incognito_man]

15 minutes ago, SSG said:

I don't agree with this at all.  When you are paying Mack you know what you are getting.  You are getting a perennial all pro that has shown the ability over his whole career to wreck games.  Zadarius Smith is the opposite of that.  He's had 1 good year in his 4 year career.  Before the out of the ordinary contract year he was a pedestrian rotational player who'd shown very little ability to rush the passer.  He's now being paid like he's an elite pass rusher despite never having shown that he consistently play at that level.  Contract year standouts don't generally work out for the teams who are writing the massive checks.  

His contract would almost be the equivalent of paying Allison top 5 WR money if he were to have 1100 yards and 8 TDs this year.  

Here's the thing about free agency...

Guys like Mack don't hit it.

Here's the thing about getting guys like Mack...

Your team has to suck first and pick top 5 OR Your team has to trade about 3 first round picks

Free agency is about finding guys whose best football (for your team) is in front of them and/or good relative value. It's not reckless to project a player. It's called 'scouting'.

[SSG]

3 hours ago, TheBitzMan said:

Gute signed young, ascending players and not the over the hill FAs. On top of that you are dead wrong about them not being difference makers...

Z. Smith had 59 pressures last season on 457 passing snaps, good for 17th in the league tied with Clowney. 

P. Smith had 53 pressures on 491 passing snaps, good for 22nd in the league. 

For reference the leader, Dee Ford, had 77 pressures on 604 passing snaps. Only 18 more than Z. Smith on 147 more snaps. 

Packers players:

• Clay - 30 pressures on 430 snaps, 56th ranked
• Fackrell - 21 on 348 - 83rd 
• Gilbert - 21 on 269 - 83rd 
• Perry - 13 on 175 - 100th

While the Smiths might not be in the elite tier, they are very good players. Our best EDGE last year was a bottom of the league starter. Replacing those players with very good players is "Difference Making". There was nothing reckless at all about what Gute did. 

 

We'll agree to disagree.  It's as simple as me not being willing to ignore 3/4 of his NFL career.  He's got 18.5 sacks in 4 years which is pretty terrible production for a guy who's getting paid like he's an elite pass rusher.  Massive contracts given to mediocre football players after huge contract years don't generally work out for the teams signing the check.  

 

I'm not as infatuated with out of the ordinary contract year's as others.  I feel the same way about this contract as I did about Nick Perry's when we gave him a huge raise after his huge contract year.  Is Smith any better of a player than Perry was after that 2016 season?  I'm not sure he is.  

 

While I think it's a terrible contract, I don't hate the signing.  This team was a dumpster fire last year and we were desperate to add talent regardless of the price.  We'll see, I hope I'm wrong.  I hope Smith is the outlier.  An elite edge rusher who didn't develop a pass rush into year 4 in the league.  If Smith is the 12-15 sack per season player he's being paid to be the contract is going to look good.