Packers Training Camp 2019

[FinneasGage]

bringing campbell back is pretty significant that's exciting. none of the other safeties behind the main 3 have made much noise in camp from the sound of it 

[Chili]

I wonder if seeing Markus Jones opened some eyes when compared to Donnerson prompting Gute to make the move? Showed more in a week than Donnerson did in a year perhaps?

A little surprised with the Grant cut. I think the returns job now basically boils down to Davis, Shepherd and Jamerson. As for RB I don't think much of Ford. Interested to see what Carson and Hall does this preseason. It's a shame we will not get to see Grant gadget ability in the backfield. Its clear that Gute & LaFleur are looking for north/south one cut runners and aren't too interested in the other stuff that Grant brings.

Edited August 8, 2019 by Chili

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, SSG said:

Of course.  We've got no choice to do anything but give him a chance. I don't buy much that comes from TC.  99% of it is fluff and over the top positives about damn near every player on the roster.  Rarely is ever real.  Last year we got nothing but positives from Camp only too have a dumpster fire of a football team.  

I'm not saying Smith isn't a decent football player, I'm saying that I  don't think he's the game changer he's being made out to be because a single year with a good pressure rate.  I'd have been much happier with a Preston Smith type of contract.  While you are overpaying, you aren't writing a blank check.  

He's being paid like he's a dominate pass rusher.  If he's anything but that contract is going to be terrible.  You don't pay "Do everything OK" utility players like their high end pass rushers.  

I hope you are right because it's gonna sting really bad if you aren't.  

It isn't one year of a good pressure rate. It's one year of a good pressure rate and one year of an elite pressure rate. 

Zadarius Smith has the 44th highest cap hit among edge rushers this year. He has the 7th highest hit next year which will easily fall to like 12th and maybe as far as like 15th when new guys start signing their deals. At no point is Zadarius Smith signed to a contract equivalent to an elite player. He's paid like the 20th-ish best edge rusher in the league. 

 

[Chili]

If Campbell goes straight onto the PUP does that mean that our roster technically is at 88?

[Norm]

3 minutes ago, Chili said:

If Campbell goes straight onto the PUP does that mean that our roster technically is at 88?

I'd sure think so.

[SSG]

8 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

He did not struggle to get to the QB.  He didn't get a lot of snaps.  He was very efficient with the snaps he did get.  And yes, sacks are a bad metric because even for a DPOY 20+ sack season, it means you managed a sack on ~3.6% of the average QBs dropbacks, assuming ~550 passing plays.  For a 12 sack season that drops to 2.1%.  They are extremely rare plays even for the very best of the best, that's why you measure pressures, and with pressures Za'Darius has been a quietly ascending, very efficient rusher.  

But sure, over pay for sacks if you want.  You're more than welcome to Vic Beasley, I'll take Smith.

I'd rather over pay for a guy who's gonna get you 10-12 sacks a season than a guy who's likely never gonna touch double digits.  While pressures are great the idea that they are more important than drive destroying sacks is an exaggeration.  It's the type of argument you make for guys who aren't very good at sacking the QB.  

Not sure Beasley is all that great of a target.  In 2016 he was a difference maker and a big reason Atlanta made the Super Bowl.  Zadarius Smith has never had anything close to that sort of impact, if he had Baltimore would have had more interest in keeping him.  That's a franchise who's never let a difference maker on defense leave and they put up zero fight when the contract got silly.    

How often does Arizona (Jones), Denver (Miller), Houston (Watt), LAR (Donald) or Minnesota (Hunter) get told that they overpaid for sacks?  I'm taking Chandler Jones over Zadrius Smith 100 times out of 100.  You can have your high pressure rate, I'll take the guy who's gonna change the game with his sacks.  

[Norm]

Lol

[ReadyToThump]

My dog is awesome. 

[Cheech]

39 minutes ago, SSG said:

Of course.  We've got no choice to do anything but give him a chance. I don't buy much that comes from TC.  99% of it is fluff and over the top positives about damn near every player on the roster.  Rarely is ever real.  Last year we got nothing but positives from Camp only too have a dumpster fire of a football team.  

I'm not saying Smith isn't a decent football player, I'm saying that I  don't think he's the game changer he's being made out to be because a single year with a good pressure rate.  I'd have been much happier with a Preston Smith type of contract.  While you are overpaying, you aren't writing a blank check.  

He's being paid like he's a dominate pass rusher.  If he's anything but that contract is going to be terrible.  You don't pay "Do everything OK" utility players like their high end pass rushers.  

I hope you are right because it's gonna sting really bad if you aren't.  

Sure.  And I agree that maybe on paper the edge defenders that we added don't seem like game changers at first blush.  Brian Burns would have been a seemingly more electric pass rusher.  There were probably other free agent edge defenders that were better pure pass rushers.  Again, I'd be shocked if he was an all-out game changer.  I do think he, Preston Smith, and Gary will change the defense in a way that Matthews, Perry, and Fackrell couldn't last year - and in ways that pure rushers like Brian Burns would have struggled to replicate. (Edit - specifically in Mike Pettine's defensive scheme.  I think Mike Daniels can still play ball at a very high level.  But he wasn't doing what he does best in this particular scheme.)

I think we'll be more stout on the edge while not giving up lateral quickness.  I think we'll see more 2nd effort type of sacks return with their brute strength and ability to collapse the pocket.  I think we'll see edge defenders that are capable of containment rushing vs. QB's that do damage outside of the pocket.  I think we'll see more favorable down and distances due to a stronger front 7.  I think we'll see all of our edge defenders sacrifice themselves by stunting inside so a DB or linebacker can come free on a blitz.  

If Z is a defensive piece that makes our D a top 10 unit while not racking up gaudy numbers I think we'll all be happy.  I know he was a lot of money, but at some point that cap money needs to be spent.  I'm just happy that it was spent at a position that desperately needed an infusion of talent.

Edited August 8, 2019 by Cheech

[SSG]

13 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

It isn't one year of a good pressure rate. It's one year of a good pressure rate and one year of an elite pressure rate. 

Zadarius Smith has the 44th highest cap hit among edge rushers this year. He has the 7th highest hit next year which will easily fall to like 12th and maybe as far as like 15th when new guys start signing their deals. At no point is Zadarius Smith signed to a contract equivalent to an elite player. He's paid like the 20th-ish best edge rusher in the league. 

 

We'll agree to disagree.  4 OLBs are scheduled to make more on a per year basis.  Even if we include DEs there's only like 7 true edge defenders that are making more and all but Flowers of the recent deals are substantially better pass rushers.  It's the same sort of contract as Cameron Jordan just signed this offseason and Jordan is a game changing pass rusher.  

Focusing on just the first year of his deal is like saying Aaron Rodgers is never gonna be a top 10 paid QB. If he isn't cut he's going to get his money and there are only 13 defenders in the league that make more than 16.5 million a year.

[AlexGreen#20]

16 minutes ago, SSG said:

I'd rather over pay for a guy who's gonna get you 10-12 sacks a season than a guy who's likely never gonna touch double digits.  While pressures are great the idea that they are more important than drive destroying sacks is an exaggeration.  It's the type of argument you make for guys who aren't very good at sacking the QB.  

Not sure Beasley is all that great of a target.  In 2016 he was a difference maker and a big reason Atlanta made the Super Bowl.  Zadarius Smith has never had anything close to that sort of impact, if he had Baltimore would have had more interest in keeping him.  That's a franchise who's never let a difference maker on defense leave and they put up zero fight when the contract got silly.    

How often does Arizona (Jones), Denver (Miller), Houston (Watt), LAR (Donald) or Minnesota (Hunter) get told that they overpaid for sacks?  I'm taking Chandler Jones over Zadrius Smith 100 times out of 100.  You can have your high pressure rate, I'll take the guy who's gonna change the game with his sacks.  

High pressures and low sacks in the previous year has a historical tendency to turn into high pressures and high sacks the next year.

Low pressures and high sacks in the previous year has a historical tendency to turn into low pressures and low sacks the next year.

[AlexGreen#20]

Just now, SSG said:

We'll agree to disagree.  4 OLBs are scheduled to make more on a per year basis.  Even if we include DEs there's only like 7 true edge defenders that are making more and all but Flowers of the recent deals are substantially better pass rushers.  It's the same sort of contract as Cameron Jordan just signed this offseason and Jordan is a game changing pass rusher.  

Focusing on just the first year of his deal is like saying Aaron Rodgers is never gonna be a top 10 paid QB. If he isn't cut he's going to get his money and there are only 13 defenders in the league that make more than 16.5 million a year.

No one is focusing exclusively on the first year of his deal. What you're failing to account for is that for every year of his deal, five people are going to pass him. 

If you choose to look at it chronologically, you see that his contract in AAV will rank like 7/12/17/22. That gives you a contract where he'll be ranked about 15th in AAV over the course of his deal. That's about right. 

[SSG]

1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

High pressures and low sacks in the previous year has a historical tendency to turn into high pressures and high sacks the next year.

Low pressures and highYOU sacks in the previous year has a historical tendency to turn into low pressures and low sacks the next year.

Maybe but you said it yourself that he's been a high pressure guy for a couple years and yet his career sack total is terrible when comparing him to guys in his pay scale.

How many high end pass rushers have waited till year 5 and after their big contract to flip the switch and become dominate?  I'm struggling to find a really good pass rusher who had as little success as Smith's had over his career when it comes to sacking the QB.  

I  hope you are right and Smith is the late blooming dominate pass rusher that you rarely see in the NFL.  

[ThatJerkDave]

1 hour ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

He was my breakout player choice, I just loved the elite athleticism at his size. I guess that either the injury was serious or he struggled to get the mental part down.

My new breakout player is Ka'dar Hollman, a sub 4.4 CB with good size (6'0", 196) with virtually my own surname and playing well in camp, especially in man-to-man coverage.

It is hard to find athletes like Donnerson.  But he just wasn't very good at football.  I'm not entirely sure that it was even a mental thing.  There is a reason that an athlete like that ends up at SEMO instead of Mizzou or Arkansas, or even Memphis.  According to wiki, he was placed on IR.  We will see if he gets an injury settlement, or if we are going to keep him.  He is an ERFA next season because we cut him and signed him to the practice squad to start the season last year.  I don't recall the ERFA rules, but with Gary in house, my guess is that he gets a settlement and tries somewhere else.

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, SSG said:

Maybe but you said it yourself that he's been a high pressure guy for a couple years and yet his career sack total is terrible when comparing him to guys in his pay scale.

How many high end pass rushers have waited till year 5 and after their big contract to flip the switch and become dominate?  I'm struggling to find a really good pass rusher who had as little success as Smith's had over his career when it comes to sacking the QB.  

I  hope you are right and Smith is the late blooming dominate pass rusher that you rarely see in the NFL.  

How many power rushers come out and actually show in their first two years? Hell, how many pass rushers in general end up as standouts immediately? This isn't an 8th year guy who just had his first good year, this is his fifth year in the league. He took a third year leap. 

He was a good pressure guy in 2017, he was a good sack guy in 2018.

He was a great pressure guy in 2018, he will be a _______ sack guy in 2019.

It's not a guarantee, but it's an investment. It's an attempt at buying low.