53 Man Roster Predictions 2019 Edition

[craig]

I'll try....

2- QB  Rodgers, Kizer (Wilkins to PS.  Is Boyle PS eligible?)

3- RB  Jones, Williams, Williams

1-FB  Vitale

4- TE Graham, Tonyon, Lewis, Sternberger

6- WR  Adams, Allison, MVS, EQ, Davis, Kumerow  (Moore, Shepherd to PS)

8- OL  Bak, Taylor, Linsley, Turner, Bulaga, Jenkins, Light, Madison (Part of me says it might make much better sense to park Madison on PS, and keep Patrick or McCray or whomever.....  Could imagine both Madison and Nijman going to practice squad.  Depends on how much they like Madison, whether they think he'd be at risk, and whether they'd mind losing him if he did.  Could also imagine going 9-deep here, but with only 7 game-day, I'd prefer your injury-emergency contingencies on the PS.)

24-Offense (if they want to go 25, I suppose Boyle, Moore, or a 9th lineman might make the most sense.)  

6- DL Clark, Lowry, Lancaster, Adams, Keke, Brown (Brown an at-risk bubble guy.)

5- Edge/OLB Smith, Smith, Gary, Fackrell, Gilbert (Donnerson injured or PS)

4- ILB  Martinez, Burks, Crawford, Summers

7- CB  Alexander, King, Williams, Jackson, Brown, Hollman, Sullivan? (Sullivan bubble, but I'm guessing they'll want to keep a 7th guy, whoever emerges as the best of the rest, so I'm guessing Sullivan.  I expect Ento for PS).  

4- S Amos, Savage, Greene, Jones

26- Defense (They may go 25-25, but I think assuming not they're perhaps more likely to go extra on defense rather than on offense.)

P- Scott

K- Ficken (No idea here, but I'm guessing Ficken!  Perhaps tie goes to the proven non-choker Crosby.  But I'm kinda thinking that all else being equal, you go for the younger guy with the stronger leg.  Roll an extra $2.5 in cap into next year and you might be glad you did; and if the younger guy works out, then you've got a chance to stabilize the position for a few years.)   

LS- Bradley

[craig]

Quote

I think the problem is people don't realize you don't cut players on rookie contracts.  The cap savings are minimal, and you're really not replacing them with someone whose clearly better. 

I think it's always about evaluation and projection.  Normally you draft a guy because your evaluation sees talent and qualities, that may take time to materialize.  So D+D patience makes sense.  Certainly you never cut a guy to "make a point" (unless that point relates to professionalism and rules/culture).  

But you're always evaluating and developing with the point of projecting future effectiveness.  If you no longer project the improvement and success that you originally envisioned when you drafted the guy, then present decisions need to be based on present evaluation and future projection, regardless of what you thought when you drafted a guy.  

There are always new guys coming in.  If given current evaluation, you future-project the newer guy more favorably than the previous guy, then it makes sense to replace.  If the previous guy still projects as well or better, keep the previous guy.  

I'm not sure it's all that different for a draft pick than from some other club-controlled UDFA.  You've got club-control for cheap for a few years.  You project-imagine that the guy might ascend and become variably useful in due time.  If for whatever reason the guy doesn't ascend and become useful enough, then it's wash and repeat.  Obviously in the case of a guy drafted, or drafted fairly highly, you originally evaluated some talents and qualities worthy of that draft stock.  Those may continue to make you prefer that guy's projection.    

Obviously health factors into evaluation and projection.  With a Spriggs, even before the trap injury, after all of his previous injuries and after having built on a lot more weight to provide some strength, did he actually have much of that speed and athleticism left that made him a 2nd-rounder?  Maybe yes, and maybe he's some good health away from emerging as a useful NFL guy..... but maybe no?  Maybe the added weight and the accumulation of injuries have reduced his athleticism and physical capacity to UDFL level, even without the trap injury?  

Duration of club-control also must factor.  I assume all ties should go to the guy with more cheap club-control left.  (Assuming an evaluation/projection tie.)  For example, if hypothetically Spriggs was healthy but management evaluated him and Light at an equal level, I assume the tie would go to Light with more club-control left.  

[mikebpackfan]

this guy has great club-control. 

[TheOnlyThing]

21 hours ago, Packer_ESP said:

The Patriots worship in this forum is nauseating. Now we're praising them for being terrible drafters? Green Bay also cut players like Thornton and Montgomery during their rookie deals. 

My post pointing out that the Patriots have released numerous recent day 1 and day 2 picks had nothing to do with praising that franchise for making poor draft picks -- it was simply made in response to the silly (and demonstrably false) notion that keeps being posted on this board that "you don't cut players on rookie contracts." 

As the Patriots (drafting and performance) record over the past 5-6 seasons makes clear, you certainly can cut high draft picks on rookie contracts and still win Super Bowls.

(And if some are uncomfortable with citing the Patriots in order to demonstrate the fallacy of the assertion that you don't cut players on rookie contracts, the record reflects that the 2017 SB Champion Eagles cut their 2014 1st and 3rd round picks long before their rookie contracts were up and traded away their 2015 2nd round pick (in 2016) for a conditional 4th round pick (in 2018), thus demonstrating both that Philly in fact moved on from players on rookie contracts and was still able to win a Lombardi after doing so).

Fortunately, during his short stint as Packers GM Gute has already made clear his rejection of the premise that "you don't cut players on rookie contracts" by moving on from day 1 and day 2 picks whom he did not believe merited spots on the roster such as Montgomery (as you note above), Rollins, and Spriggs. 

[vegas492]

8 hours ago, TheOnlyThing said:

My post pointing out that the Patriots have released numerous recent day 1 and day 2 picks had nothing to do with praising that franchise for making poor draft picks -- it was simply made in response to the silly (and demonstrably false) notion that keeps being posted on this board that "you don't cut players on rookie contracts." 

As the Patriots (drafting and performance) record over the past 5-6 seasons makes clear, you certainly can cut high draft picks on rookie contracts and still win Super Bowls.

(And if some are uncomfortable with citing the Patriots in order to demonstrate the fallacy of the assertion that you don't cut players on rookie contracts, the record reflects that the 2017 SB Champion Eagles cut their 2014 1st and 3rd round picks long before their rookie contracts were up and traded away their 2015 2nd round pick (in 2016) for a conditional 4th round pick (in 2018), thus demonstrating both that Philly in fact moved on from players on rookie contracts and was still able to win a Lombardi after doing so).

Fortunately, during his short stint as Packers GM Gute has already made clear his rejection of the premise that "you don't cut players on rookie contracts" by moving on from day 1 and day 2 picks whom he did not believe merited spots on the roster such as Montgomery (as you note above), Rollins, and Spriggs. 

Man.  Too many lines drawn in the sand concerning this whole "you don't cut players on rookie contracts" stuff.  And I'm now sad that I pointed out how wrong that opinion was concerning Spriggs a couple of days ago. 

Can we just settle on this?  It is "usually unwise to cut players on rookie contracts"?

You don't want to make a practice of it.  CWood's logic holds up in a lot of cases.  It also fails in a few.  I"d argue it fails a whole lot less than it holds up.  Death, taxes and aging parents telling you everything medically wrong with them, in detail, during every phone call you have with them are 100% locks, the rest of life has grey areas.

Nothing is an absolute.  And in this one case, concerning Spriggs, clearly the staff thought that his time was up.

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

Death, taxes and aging parents telling you everything medically wrong with them, in detail, during every phone call you have with them are 100% locks, the rest of life has grey areas.

 

Speaking of aging parents, does your dad still go to watch camp practices?  Does the coach have any thoughts about this year? 

 

[Shanedorf]

4 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

Speaking of aging parents, does your dad still go to watch camp practices?  Does the coach have any thoughts about this year? 

 

+1
He had some quality write-ups in the past

[vegas492]

37 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

Speaking of aging parents, does your dad still go to watch camp practices?  Does the coach have any thoughts about this year? 

 

Sadly my father is no longer able to go to practice.  He's retired and living in Florida.  Usually he comes back to Wisconsin during the summer, but this year he's having some medical issues that are keeping him from traveling.

But thank you very much for asking about him.  I'll pass it along to him and it will make his day!

The man still bleeds green and gold.  Every conversation turns into a Packer conversation.  He was upset about the Daniels release.  His rationale was right in line with AG#20, he wants GB to win and win NOW!  As my father says, he doesn't have many seasons left in him and he hates it when the team does something that makes them weaker.

[vegas492]

34 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

+1
He had some quality write-ups in the past

Dad was an offensive lineman coach at heart.  He just knew things about linemen.

And he could spot "special talent" a mile away.  Everyone is talented in an NFL camp, but he had and continues to have a knack for seeing that little something special in a player.

I don't know if I shared it with you or anyone on this Board, but....back when we drafted those three running backs, he singled out Jones right away as the one who would make it.  I, of course, told him that they were all equally garbage and that any running back could succeed in GB with #12 under center, just like the line of guys who lined up behind #4.  And?  I was wrong and he was right...again.  LOL!   

[HyponGrey]

3 hours ago, vegas492 said:

Dad was an offensive lineman coach at heart.  He just knew things about linemen.

And he could spot "special talent" a mile away.  Everyone is talented in an NFL camp, but he had and continues to have a knack for seeing that little something special in a player.

I don't know if I shared it with you or anyone on this Board, but....back when we drafted those three running backs, he singled out Jones right away as the one who would make it.  I, of course, told him that they were all equally garbage and that any running back could succeed in GB with #12 under center, just like the line of guys who lined up behind #4.  And?  I was wrong and he was right...again.  LOL!   

Get him looking at next year's OT prospects. We're gonna need it.

[incognito_man]

QB: Rodgers/Kizer
RB: Jones/Williams/Williams
FB/TE: Vitale/Graham/Tonyan/Sternberger/Lewis
WR: Adams/Allison/MVS/ESB/Kumerow/Shepherd
OL: Bakh/Taylor/Linsley/Turner/Bulaga/Jenkins/Light/McCray/[New Guy]

25

DL: Clark/Lowry/Adams/Keke/Lancaster/Brown
OLB: Smith/Smith/Gary/Fackrell/(Ramsey or Jones)
ILB: Martinez/Burks/Crawford/Bolton
DB: Alexander/King/Amos/Savage/Tramon/Brown/Jones/Jackson/Hollman/Campbell

25

I think we try to move Davis for a reserve OT

[Chili]

After the 1st preseason game here's my updated predicted 53 man roster

Offense: 26

QB (2) Rodgers, Kizer

I thought Kizer showed good pocket presence and a good level of athleticism moving around, just needs to be more consistent with his throws. Boyle is nipping on his heels very closely though.

RB (3) Jones, J'Williams, D'Williams

With Grant cut I think we will keep just 3 RBs. Right now I don't think much of the others but that might change once the new guys get comfortable with the offence.

FB (1) Vitale

No change.

TE (4) Graham, Sternberger, Tonyan, Lewis

No change.

WR (6) Adams, Valdes-Scantling, Allison, St. Brown, Kumerow, Davis

No change.

OL (10) Bakhtiari, Bulaga, Turner, Linsley, Jenkins, Madison, Pankey, Light, de Beer, Patrick

Made one change by dropping Nijman. I'm still of the opinion that if Taylor does not secure the starting LG spot he will be cut. The very fact his hold on the starting spot is on shaky ground suggests they would like to upgrade on him if we can. The younger, cheaper and more versatile linemen will make up the backup spots. I will be honest I think 10 OL is too many simply because I can't decide who to cut. Light has the advantage at the moment as the backup tackle. Patrick appears to ahead as our backup centre. Madison is a draft pick and is versatile and so it appears it will come down to Pankey and de Beer for the final spot. I kept both but realistically I think we will only keep one of them. LaFleur's offensive line will be doing alot of pulling and I'm not convinced Taylor and McCray can do it to the level LaFleur wants. LaFleur has stated many times that our offence will be predicated through our OL to establish the run game and frees up Rodgers for the play action. This is what our offence is going to be about so our OL needs to be able to move quickly and effectively which is why for those reasons alone I think both Taylor and McCray will end up being cut.

 

Defense: 24

DL (5) Clark, Lowry, Adams, Lancaster, Keke

No change.

OLB (4) Z'Smith, P'Smith, Gary, Fackrell,.

With Donnerson cut I think we will keep just 4. Fackrell in theory should be a lock yet why do I have a gut feeling his roster spot isn't as secure as we all think?

ILB (4) Martinez, Burks, Crawford, Summers

Added Summers. No way he's not getting in the final 53. Was hugely impressed with his communication and command of the defence. He was everywhere and his involvement on ST basically put him in fantastic position to make the roster. Just need to tidy up on the missed tackles. I'll be interested to see what kind of injury Burks got as that could impact the final make-up of the roster.

S (4) Amos, Savage, Greene, Jones/Bolton

I'm not sure what's going on with Jones. Holding him out of the preseason game, the addition of Campbell, the performance of Bolton. I'm finding it difficult to read the tea leaves. As of right now Campbell has done nothing yet to suggest he will make the roster so I have not put him in. However if Bolton continues to impress as a SS/LB hybrid I think that might prompt Gute to trade Jones. Maybe Burks injury allows us to keep both Jones and Bolton. We'll see.

CB (7) Alexander, King, Jackson, Brown, Hollman, Willams, Ento

This group picks itself. I still think there's potentially room for a 7th CB and I think that will be between Ento and Sullivan. I think Pettine likes long corners so Ento might have an advantage there.

ST: 3

K (1) Crosby

P (1) Scott

LS (1) Bradley

 

Since I feel keeping 10 OL is too many the final roster spot could go any number of ways.

1. Keep both Kizer and Boyle

2. Keep Moore or Shepherd as 7th WR.

3. Keep Jones and Bolton.

4. Keep another RB

Maybe we will keep just 6 corners freeing up another spot to be used elsewhere.

[Mr. Fussnputz]

1 hour ago, Chili said:

After the 1st preseason game here's my updated predicted 53 man roster

Offense: 26

QB (2) Rodgers, Kizer

I thought Kizer showed good pocket presence and a good level of athleticism moving around, just needs to be more consistent with his throws. Boyle is nipping on his heels very closely though.

RB (3) Jones, J'Williams, D'Williams

With Grant cut I think we will keep just 3 RBs. Right now I don't think much of the others but that might change once the new guys get comfortable with the offence.

FB (1) Vitale

No change.

TE (4) Graham, Sternberger, Tonyan, Lewis

No change.

WR (6) Adams, Valdes-Scantling, Allison, St. Brown, Kumerow, Davis

No change.

OL (10) Bakhtiari, Bulaga, Turner, Linsley, Jenkins, Madison, Pankey, Light, de Beer, Patrick

Made one change by dropping Nijman. I'm still of the opinion that if Taylor does not secure the starting LG spot he will be cut. The very fact his hold on the starting spot is on shaky ground suggests they would like to upgrade on him if we can. The younger, cheaper and more versatile linemen will make up the backup spots. I will be honest I think 10 OL is too many simply because I can't decide who to cut. Light has the advantage at the moment as the backup tackle. Patrick appears to ahead as our backup centre. Madison is a draft pick and is versatile and so it appears it will come down to Pankey and de Beer for the final spot. I kept both but realistically I think we will only keep one of them. LaFleur's offensive line will be doing alot of pulling and I'm not convinced Taylor and McCray can do it to the level LaFleur wants. LaFleur has stated many times that our offence will be predicated through our OL to establish the run game and frees up Rodgers for the play action. This is what our offence is going to be about so our OL needs to be able to move quickly and effectively which is why for those reasons alone I think both Taylor and McCray will end up being cut.

 

Defense: 24

DL (5) Clark, Lowry, Adams, Lancaster, Keke

No change.

OLB (4) Z'Smith, P'Smith, Gary, Fackrell,.

With Donnerson cut I think we will keep just 4. Fackrell in theory should be a lock yet why do I have a gut feeling his roster spot isn't as secure as we all think?

ILB (4) Martinez, Burks, Crawford, Summers

Added Summers. No way he's not getting in the final 53. Was hugely impressed with his communication and command of the defence. He was everywhere and his involvement on ST basically put him in fantastic position to make the roster. Just need to tidy up on the missed tackles. I'll be interested to see what kind of injury Burks got as that could impact the final make-up of the roster.

S (4) Amos, Savage, Greene, Jones/Bolton

I'm not sure what's going on with Jones. Holding him out of the preseason game, the addition of Campbell, the performance of Bolton. I'm finding it difficult to read the tea leaves. As of right now Campbell has done nothing yet to suggest he will make the roster so I have not put him in. However if Bolton continues to impress as a SS/LB hybrid I think that might prompt Gute to trade Jones. Maybe Burks injury allows us to keep both Jones and Bolton. We'll see.

CB (7) Alexander, King, Jackson, Brown, Hollman, Willams, Ento

This group picks itself. I still think there's potentially room for a 7th CB and I think that will be between Ento and Sullivan. I think Pettine likes long corners so Ento might have an advantage there.

ST: 3

K (1) Crosby

P (1) Scott

LS (1) Bradley

 

Since I feel keeping 10 OL is too many the final roster spot could go any number of ways.

1. Keep both Kizer and Boyle

2. Keep Moore or Shepherd as 7th WR.

3. Keep Jones and Bolton.

4. Keep another RB

Maybe we will keep just 6 corners freeing up another spot to be used elsewhere.

Nice job!

I think they find a way to keep Boyle. In another year Boyle/Kizer will have some trade value, so holding onto both is like money in a savings account. I could see them moving Jones if Redmon develops at safety. Redmon could also play corner in a pinch. Ento could use a year on the PS. If Shepherd shows some special teams value, he probably takes Davis' spot on the 53. I think Reggie Gilbert makes the team over one of the OL guys like Pankey. 

The next three games should start to tell the story. 

[CWood21]

On 8/4/2019 at 8:37 PM, CWood21 said:

Early 53 Man Projections
QB - Rodgers/Kizer/Boyle [3/3]
RB - Jones/JWilliams/DWilliams [3/6]
WR - Adams/MVS/Allison/ESB/Kumerow/Davis [6/12]
TE/FB - Graham/Lewis/Tonyan/Sternberger/Vitale [5/17]
OL - Baktiari/Taylor/Linsley/Turner/Bulaga/Njiman/Light/Jenkins/Madison [9/26]

DL - Lowry/Adams/Clark/Keke/Lancaster/Brown [6/32]
OLB - Gary/ZSmith/PSmith/Fackrell [4/36]
ILB - Martinez/Crawford/Summers [3/39]
CB - Alexander/King/Williams/Jackson/Brown/Hollman [6/45]
S - Savage/Amos/Greene/Jones/Redmond [4/50]

ST - Crosby/Scott/Bradley [3/53]

Updated.

 

[green machine]

3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Updated.

 

You listed 3 ILB and counted it as 4.