2019 WR Corps

[coachbuns]

2 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

It's really troubling that getting Adams integrated into a functional offense has been so problematic. Getting a top 5 NFL receiver back shouldn't bog it down, it should be taking it to new heights. 

It is head scratching for sure.  I'm not enough of a coach to figure it out. 

[Spartacus]

1 hour ago, coachbuns said:

It is head scratching for sure.  I'm not enough of a coach to figure it out. 

Its Aaron... You saw a perfect example of it the last game. 

Davante runs a fly route and is completely covered. Aaron Jones runs a slant underneath and was WIDE open yet Aaron already had his mind made up that he is feeding Adams. Adams has no chance at the ball meanwhile our most dynamic playmaker outside of Adams is asking himself why he even bothers running routes anymore. 

 

 

[KingOfTheNorth]

I feel like Rodgers is trying to move too fast through his reads when Adams is on the field. Almost like he is reading a book that he feels he already knows. So instead of reading every word he decides to skim through and only focus on what he deems the important parts. He is skimming the field and only focusing on the players he trusts or is familiar with and it is causing him to miss some open WRs. He really needs to slow down and embrace all of the routes available to him. He has already proven he can do that based on the results we were seeing when Adams was out.  It's disappointing but not really surprising he regressed back to this with Adams back. Hopefully LaFleur worked out a way during the bye to help Aaron accept this. Aaron has to know that he is doing this, the issue is I am not sure he sees it as a problem.

Edited November 20, 2019 by KingOfTheNorth

[MrBobGray]

I really wish I had the time to just sit and do a full career regression on Rodgers, and see if he was always this way.  I feel like early in his career he was better about reading the defense pre and post snap, but as his desire to play street ball increased his post-snap game fell way off.  He so often doesn't seem to know where he should be going after his first read or two, and there's a disconcerting number of plays where a guy on a crosser or dig or whatever comes open in a hole in the coverage and Rodgers seemingly has no idea.  More than once this year I've seen him come off a guy that's just a few steps from breaking into a massive hole in the zone, just to throw a covered ball to the sideline that's basically a throw away.  On top of that, he seems to refuse to throw tight window balls over the middle; the receiver can be open in the middle but if there's coverage on the other side, he just won't risk it regardless.  Rodgers used to be absolutely lethal throwing slants, now he throws what, two a game?  And only to Davante.  And even then, he frequently throws them too low because he doesn't want to risk a tip INT.  

Rodgers still has all the tools and ability to be dicing up defenses.  The four games Davante was out show that when he's forced to, he can play within the system and hit all the throws.  His arm might not be 25 year old Aaron but there's nothing preventing him from MVP level play physically.  It's still all in his head, and it's depressing to see all these bad habits come rushing back as soon as Adams returned.

[Kepler]

20 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

I really wish I had the time to just sit and do a full career regression on Rodgers, and see if he was always this way.  I feel like early in his career he was better about reading the defense pre and post snap, but as his desire to play street ball increased his post-snap game fell way off.  He so often doesn't seem to know where he should be going after his first read or two, and there's a disconcerting number of plays where a guy on a crosser or dig or whatever comes open in a hole in the coverage and Rodgers seemingly has no idea.  More than once this year I've seen him come off a guy that's just a few steps from breaking into a massive hole in the zone, just to throw a covered ball to the sideline that's basically a throw away.  On top of that, he seems to refuse to throw tight window balls over the middle; the receiver can be open in the middle but if there's coverage on the other side, he just won't risk it regardless.  Rodgers used to be absolutely lethal throwing slants, now he throws what, two a game?  And only to Davante.  And even then, he frequently throws them too low because he doesn't want to risk a tip INT.  

Rodgers still has all the tools and ability to be dicing up defenses.  The four games Davante was out show that when he's forced to, he can play within the system and hit all the throws.  His arm might not be 25 year old Aaron but there's nothing preventing him from MVP level play physically.  It's still all in his head, and it's depressing to see all these bad habits come rushing back as soon as Adams returned.

Imo it's because he's not as good hitting his receivers in stride, especially in the long game. How many times do receivers have to slow down to get underneath his throws? Locking on Adams and not going through progressions is baffling though. I can't piece it together logically. Adams might just be his pacifier and blanket.

[Shanedorf]

Great work from Mr BobGray
But it is kinda weird to try and assimilate both of these commentaries within one average-sized brain

 

23 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

I really wish I had the time to just sit and do a full career regression on Rodgers, and see if he was always this way.  I feel like early in his career he was better about reading the defense pre and post snap, but as his desire to play street ball increased his post-snap game fell way off.  He so often doesn't seem to know where he should be going after his first read or two, and there's a disconcerting number of plays where a guy on a crosser or dig or whatever comes open in a hole in the coverage and Rodgers seemingly has no idea.  More than once this year I've seen him come off a guy that's just a few steps from breaking into a massive hole in the zone, just to throw a covered ball to the sideline that's basically a throw away.  On top of that, he seems to refuse to throw tight window balls over the middle; the receiver can be open in the middle but if there's coverage on the other side, he just won't risk it regardless.  Rodgers used to be absolutely lethal throwing slants, now he throws what, two a game?  And only to Davante.  And even then, he frequently throws them too low because he doesn't want to risk a tip INT.  

Rodgers still has all the tools and ability to be dicing up defenses.  The four games Davante was out show that when he's forced to, he can play within the system and hit all the throws.  His arm might not be 25 year old Aaron but there's nothing preventing him from MVP level play physically.  It's still all in his head, and it's depressing to see all these bad habits come rushing back as soon as Adams returned.

And this one below from Packers Wire:

"After eight games in a brand new offense, including four without his Pro Bowl receiver, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is on pace for one of his most statistically efficient seasons in years.

Rodgers is second in the NFL with 2,324 passing yards and on pace to throw for 4,648 yards, which would set a new career-high.
His current 106.7 passer rating would be his highest since the 2014 season, his last MVP season.

Rodgers is also averaging 8.2 yards per attempt, 12.6 yards per completion and 8.0 adjusted net yards per attempt.
All three would represent his best marks since 2014 "

The last two weeks have been peak Rodgers. In wins over the Raiders and Chiefs, Rodgers completed 75 percent of his passes, tossed eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions, averaged 11.5 yards per attempt and posted a passer rating of 152.0

[MrBobGray]

2 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

Great work from Mr BobGray
But it is kinda weird to try and assimilate both of these commentaries within one average-sized brain

 

And this one below from Packers Wire:

"After eight games in a brand new offense, including four without his Pro Bowl receiver, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is on pace for one of his most statistically efficient seasons in years.

Rodgers is second in the NFL with 2,324 passing yards and on pace to throw for 4,648 yards, which would set a new career-high.
His current 106.7 passer rating would be his highest since the 2014 season, his last MVP season.

Rodgers is also averaging 8.2 yards per attempt, 12.6 yards per completion and 8.0 adjusted net yards per attempt.
All three would represent his best marks since 2014 "

The last two weeks have been peak Rodgers. In wins over the Raiders and Chiefs, Rodgers completed 75 percent of his passes, tossed eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions, averaged 11.5 yards per attempt and posted a passer rating of 152.0

I started to dig into the stats just to point out why I disagree with their take, and I was surprised to find out the stats actually paint a much worse picture than I had realized.

So to start, the article was written at the best point in the season to make that argument.  The two games since this article, his statline looks like so:

• 23 of 35, 65.71% completion, 4.6 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT, 85.5 passer rating
• 17 of 29, 58.62% completion, 8.03 YPA, 0 TD, 0 INT, 84.4 passer rating

He's currently at 102.7 passer rating, which would be the 6th best of his career; that sounds decent, until you realize the massive inflation of passer rating in the league.  Rodgers is currently at 10th in the league for passer rating with 102.7; in 2010 when he posted a 101.2 passer rating he was 3rd in the NFL.  

As for efficiency stats, his TD% this year is 4.9%, the 2nd worst mark of his career after 2018.  His mark of 7.8 YPA is tied for the 6th best of his career with 2012, but there again inflation kicks in.  In 2012, 7.8 was 5th in the league, and the leader posted 8.1 YPA.  In 2019, 7.8 ranks 9th, and the NFL leader is at 8.8 YPA.  In fact, there are six players with 8.1 or higher in 2019.

Then there's the fact that nearly all his numbers are propped up by those two games against the Chiefs and Raiders.  He only has one other game > 100 passer rating this season: a 101.2 performance against the Vikings in Week 2.  He currently has the same number of games below 90 passer rating as he does above 100.  If you remove those two games from his season, he's managed this in his other 8 games:

• 179 of 283, 1984 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs, passer rating of 91.66 

I understand the statistical issues inherent in removing only positive outliers from a data set, but that's not even my point.  Rodgers has averaged ~1.1 TDs and 7.0 YPA per game this season outside of his two big performances.  That isn't close to good enough for a player of his talent.  I know they're in a new offense, and they've played some stiff defenses, but straight up when a player is taking up the amount of the cap Rodgers is you absolutely need more from him.  Either he improves, or the Packers get bounced in the wild card/divisional round again.  He turned it up in 2016, and while the teams record is much better this year, he needs to start another Run The Table stretch pretty much immediately, or it's hard to see this year as anything but a disappointment from him.

[AlexGreen#20]

5 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

I started to dig into the stats just to point out why I disagree with their take, and I was surprised to find out the stats actually paint a much worse picture than I had realized.

So to start, the article was written at the best point in the season to make that argument.  The two games since this article, his statline looks like so:

• 23 of 35, 65.71% completion, 4.6 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT, 85.5 passer rating
• 17 of 29, 58.62% completion, 8.03 YPA, 0 TD, 0 INT, 84.4 passer rating

He's currently at 102.7 passer rating, which would be the 6th best of his career; that sounds decent, until you realize the massive inflation of passer rating in the league.  Rodgers is currently at 10th in the league for passer rating with 102.7; in 2010 when he posted a 101.2 passer rating he was 3rd in the NFL.  

As for efficiency stats, his TD% this year is 4.9%, the 2nd worst mark of his career after 2018.  His mark of 7.8 YPA is tied for the 6th best of his career with 2012, but there again inflation kicks in.  In 2012, 7.8 was 5th in the league, and the leader posted 8.1 YPA.  In 2019, 7.8 ranks 9th, and the NFL leader is at 8.8 YPA.  In fact, there are six players with 8.1 or higher in 2019.

Then there's the fact that nearly all his numbers are propped up by those two games against the Chiefs and Raiders.  He only has one other game > 100 passer rating this season: a 101.2 performance against the Vikings in Week 2.  He currently has the same number of games below 90 passer rating as he does above 100.  If you remove those two games from his season, he's managed this in his other 8 games:

• 179 of 283, 1984 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs, passer rating of 91.66 

I understand the statistical issues inherent in removing only positive outliers from a data set, but that's not even my point.  Rodgers has averaged ~1.1 TDs and 7.0 YPA per game this season outside of his two big performances.  That isn't close to good enough for a player of his talent.  I know they're in a new offense, and they've played some stiff defenses, but straight up when a player is taking up the amount of the cap Rodgers is you absolutely need more from him.  Either he improves, or the Packers get bounced in the wild card/divisional round again.  He turned it up in 2016, and while the teams record is much better this year, he needs to start another Run The Table stretch pretty much immediately, or it's hard to see this year as anything but a disappointment from him.

[Gopackgonerd]

1 hour ago, MrBobGray said:

I started to dig into the stats just to point out why I disagree with their take, and I was surprised to find out the stats actually paint a much worse picture than I had realized.

So to start, the article was written at the best point in the season to make that argument.  The two games since this article, his statline looks like so:

• 23 of 35, 65.71% completion, 4.6 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT, 85.5 passer rating
• 17 of 29, 58.62% completion, 8.03 YPA, 0 TD, 0 INT, 84.4 passer rating

He's currently at 102.7 passer rating, which would be the 6th best of his career; that sounds decent, until you realize the massive inflation of passer rating in the league.  Rodgers is currently at 10th in the league for passer rating with 102.7; in 2010 when he posted a 101.2 passer rating he was 3rd in the NFL.  

As for efficiency stats, his TD% this year is 4.9%, the 2nd worst mark of his career after 2018.  His mark of 7.8 YPA is tied for the 6th best of his career with 2012, but there again inflation kicks in.  In 2012, 7.8 was 5th in the league, and the leader posted 8.1 YPA.  In 2019, 7.8 ranks 9th, and the NFL leader is at 8.8 YPA.  In fact, there are six players with 8.1 or higher in 2019.

Then there's the fact that nearly all his numbers are propped up by those two games against the Chiefs and Raiders.  He only has one other game > 100 passer rating this season: a 101.2 performance against the Vikings in Week 2.  He currently has the same number of games below 90 passer rating as he does above 100.  If you remove those two games from his season, he's managed this in his other 8 games:

• 179 of 283, 1984 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs, passer rating of 91.66 

I understand the statistical issues inherent in removing only positive outliers from a data set, but that's not even my point.  Rodgers has averaged ~1.1 TDs and 7.0 YPA per game this season outside of his two big performances.  That isn't close to good enough for a player of his talent.  I know they're in a new offense, and they've played some stiff defenses, but straight up when a player is taking up the amount of the cap Rodgers is you absolutely need more from him.  Either he improves, or the Packers get bounced in the wild card/divisional round again.  He turned it up in 2016, and while the teams record is much better this year, he needs to start another Run The Table stretch pretty much immediately, or it's hard to see this year as anything but a disappointment from him.

I'm sure he will improve, it also helps Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are playing very well right now to complement him. It's not all on him to make or break our season anymore.

Edited November 21, 2019 by Gopackgonerd

[Packerraymond]

1 hour ago, MrBobGray said:

I started to dig into the stats just to point out why I disagree with their take, and I was surprised to find out the stats actually paint a much worse picture than I had realized.

So to start, the article was written at the best point in the season to make that argument.  The two games since this article, his statline looks like so:

• 23 of 35, 65.71% completion, 4.6 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT, 85.5 passer rating
• 17 of 29, 58.62% completion, 8.03 YPA, 0 TD, 0 INT, 84.4 passer rating

He's currently at 102.7 passer rating, which would be the 6th best of his career; that sounds decent, until you realize the massive inflation of passer rating in the league.  Rodgers is currently at 10th in the league for passer rating with 102.7; in 2010 when he posted a 101.2 passer rating he was 3rd in the NFL.  

As for efficiency stats, his TD% this year is 4.9%, the 2nd worst mark of his career after 2018.  His mark of 7.8 YPA is tied for the 6th best of his career with 2012, but there again inflation kicks in.  In 2012, 7.8 was 5th in the league, and the leader posted 8.1 YPA.  In 2019, 7.8 ranks 9th, and the NFL leader is at 8.8 YPA.  In fact, there are six players with 8.1 or higher in 2019.

Then there's the fact that nearly all his numbers are propped up by those two games against the Chiefs and Raiders.  He only has one other game > 100 passer rating this season: a 101.2 performance against the Vikings in Week 2.  He currently has the same number of games below 90 passer rating as he does above 100.  If you remove those two games from his season, he's managed this in his other 8 games:

• 179 of 283, 1984 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs, passer rating of 91.66 

I understand the statistical issues inherent in removing only positive outliers from a data set, but that's not even my point.  Rodgers has averaged ~1.1 TDs and 7.0 YPA per game this season outside of his two big performances.  That isn't close to good enough for a player of his talent.  I know they're in a new offense, and they've played some stiff defenses, but straight up when a player is taking up the amount of the cap Rodgers is you absolutely need more from him.  Either he improves, or the Packers get bounced in the wild card/divisional round again.  He turned it up in 2016, and while the teams record is much better this year, he needs to start another Run The Table stretch pretty much immediately, or it's hard to see this year as anything but a disappointment from him.

We're 8-2 and 4-0 versus teams with winning records, so the talk like he has to be drastically better or we'll be bounced in the wild card is ridiculous.

I don't think anyone would fight you that we're not seeing consistent peak Rodgers, and as a 36 year old I don't think we should expect to see that. I also don't think anyone would fight you that this season has been by far his worst group of pass catchers. Watch tape of old games and look at the YAC Driver, Jennings, Jones, Finley, Nelson got. The ball placement was spectacular as well and has gone down a tad, but YPA is a passing game metric, not just a QB metric. Same with TD %. 

Gute skimped on the pass catcher talent this off-season because what we've seen play out is a reality, one that @Outpost31 claims he's the only one who knows, but in reality a lot of us do. You don't need stud WRs to win NFL games. You do however need some studs to continue putting up video game numbers like we're accustom to with Aaron.

My only real complaint with Aaron thus far is still holding the ball and taking unnecessary hits.

[MrBobGray]

2 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

We're 8-2 and 4-0 versus teams with winning records, so the talk like he has to be drastically better or we'll be bounced in the wild card is ridiculous.

I don't think anyone would fight you that we're not seeing consistent peak Rodgers, and as a 36 year old I don't think we should expect to see that. I also don't think anyone would fight you that this season has been by far his worst group of pass catchers. Watch tape of old games and look at the YAC Driver, Jennings, Jones, Finley, Nelson got. The ball placement was spectacular as well and has gone down a tad, but YPA is a passing game metric, not just a QB metric. Same with TD %. 

Gute skimped on the pass catcher talent this off-season because what we've seen play out is a reality, one that @Outpost31 claims he's the only one who knows, but in reality a lot of us do. You don't need stud WRs to win NFL games. You do however need some studs to continue putting up video game numbers like we're accustom to with Aaron.

My only real complaint with Aaron thus far is still holding the ball and taking unnecessary hits.

The Packers have been exceptionally good at closing out close, one score games this year.  There's plenty of statistical evidence that shows that winning close games has a high degree of variance and teams are unlikely to maintain either a good or bad run for long.  Simply put, winning with your QB throwing for 250 yards and 1 TD a game is not a winning strategy in 2019.  What team in the playoffs in the last five-seven years was able to get by with that level of production, especially without an elite defense?  This isn't a doom and gloom post, but just being realistic if you're expecting to win a Super Bowl you aren't doing it with your QB putting up a 91 passer rating.

And I'm not really expecting the video game numbers, but there's a huge difference between setting the single season NFL passer rating record and barely holding on to a top 10 passer rating despite having a perfect game in there.  

As far as the talent, I totally agree that this group isn't on the level of those old Packers receiving corps.  I'm not sure I agree they're his worst group of pass catchers, I think 2015 has that spot on lock but they're certainly up there.  But I have a hard time blaming this all on the talent.  For one, Rodgers certainly isn't helping his receivers with YAC; I personally think his ball placement has gone down more than a tad with respect to YAC.  For two, Rodgers's two best games were without Davante Adams; you certainly would assume if a lack of talent was the issue losing your one true elite receiving piece would crater the offense, not cause it to explode.  Their receivers aren't great, but their TEs are better than they've been in Rodgers career other than 2009 Finley and their RBs are the best receiving backs they've ever had by far.  The OL is an elite group, even if it hasn't been playing quite as well.  I just don't see it.  

Sure, expecting him to throw 50 TDs and win the MVP is unrealistic, but expecting him to maybe break 30 TDs or have more 100+ rated games than <90 rated ones seems perfectly obtainable.

[packfanfb]

Our defense has forced a grand total of 1, yes 1, "3 and out" in the last 3 games combined...

And we're talking about Rodgers not playing well enough...🤦‍♂️🤷‍♂️

[AlexGreen#20]

26 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

The Packers have been exceptionally good at closing out close, one score games this year.  There's plenty of statistical evidence that shows that winning close games has a high degree of variance and teams are unlikely to maintain either a good or bad run for long.  Simply put, winning with your QB throwing for 250 yards and 1 TD a game is not a winning strategy in 2019.  What team in the playoffs in the last five-seven years was able to get by with that level of production, especially without an elite defense?  This isn't a doom and gloom post, but just being realistic if you're expecting to win a Super Bowl you aren't doing it with your QB putting up a 91 passer rating.

And I'm not really expecting the video game numbers, but there's a huge difference between setting the single season NFL passer rating record and barely holding on to a top 10 passer rating despite having a perfect game in there.  

As far as the talent, I totally agree that this group isn't on the level of those old Packers receiving corps.  I'm not sure I agree they're his worst group of pass catchers, I think 2015 has that spot on lock but they're certainly up there.  But I have a hard time blaming this all on the talent.  For one, Rodgers certainly isn't helping his receivers with YAC; I personally think his ball placement has gone down more than a tad with respect to YAC.  For two, Rodgers's two best games were without Davante Adams; you certainly would assume if a lack of talent was the issue losing your one true elite receiving piece would crater the offense, not cause it to explode.  Their receivers aren't great, but their TEs are better than they've been in Rodgers career other than 2009 Finley and their RBs are the best receiving backs they've ever had by far.  The OL is an elite group, even if it hasn't been playing quite as well.  I just don't see it.  

Sure, expecting him to throw 50 TDs and win the MVP is unrealistic, but expecting him to maybe break 30 TDs or have more 100+ rated games than <90 rated ones seems perfectly obtainable.

I love you

[MrBobGray]

7 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I love you

[Gopackgonerd]

2 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

The Packers have been exceptionally good at closing out close, one score games this year.  There's plenty of statistical evidence that shows that winning close games has a high degree of variance and teams are unlikely to maintain either a good or bad run for long.  Simply put, winning with your QB throwing for 250 yards and 1 TD a game is not a winning strategy in 2019.  What team in the playoffs in the last five-seven years was able to get by with that level of production, especially without an elite defense?  This isn't a doom and gloom post, but just being realistic if you're expecting to win a Super Bowl you aren't doing it with your QB putting up a 91 passer rating.

And I'm not really expecting the video game numbers, but there's a huge difference between setting the single season NFL passer rating record and barely holding on to a top 10 passer rating despite having a perfect game in there.  

As far as the talent, I totally agree that this group isn't on the level of those old Packers receiving corps.  I'm not sure I agree they're his worst group of pass catchers, I think 2015 has that spot on lock but they're certainly up there.  But I have a hard time blaming this all on the talent.  For one, Rodgers certainly isn't helping his receivers with YAC; I personally think his ball placement has gone down more than a tad with respect to YAC.  For two, Rodgers's two best games were without Davante Adams; you certainly would assume if a lack of talent was the issue losing your one true elite receiving piece would crater the offense, not cause it to explode.  Their receivers aren't great, but their TEs are better than they've been in Rodgers career other than 2009 Finley and their RBs are the best receiving backs they've ever had by far.  The OL is an elite group, even if it hasn't been playing quite as well.  I just don't see it.  

Sure, expecting him to throw 50 TDs and win the MVP is unrealistic, but expecting him to maybe break 30 TDs or have more 100+ rated games than <90 rated ones seems perfectly obtainable.

Are we accounting for the running game here? Aaron Jones also has put up 3+ TDs in 2 of these games on the ground where Rodgers stats were low and or didnt throw more than 1 TD. I'm not saying Rodgers doesnt need to play better, but I think with how successful the running game has been we have a better chance of going far in the playoffs without relying  mostly on Rodgers like we have for many years. 

 

Edited November 22, 2019 by Gopackgonerd