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2019 MLB Hot Stove Thread


Eagles27

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4 minutes ago, redsoxsuck05 said:

Pretty dumb comment tbh I’m definitely happier being a Yankees fan now because Hal finally decided to spend his yacht money on an ace. I find no joy in complacency. Why else do you play the game?

Well thats good. Your happiness means a lot to me.  Glad I can cross off my list for the upcoming season. Thats a load off my mind. LOL

Oh btw.....Cole would represent that "targeted spending" you decry so much.

In case you didnt recognize it.

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1 minute ago, redsoxsuck05 said:

Pretty dumb comment tbh

I’m definitely happier being a Yankees fan now because Hal finally decided to spend his yacht money on an ace. I find no joy in complacency. Why else do you play the game?

I will never understand a fan who wants profitability, knowing a correlation between spending and winning exists, solely for profitability's sake. Actually, that's not strong enough. Any fan who wants an owner to pocket dollars instead of investing in the team that they root for is deluded.

Fans should only root for efficiency to the point that it facilitates on-field improvement. The Yankees aren't saving luxury tax money to upgrade the roster, or the stadium, or spend more on amateurs, or improve their coaches. 

And the Red Sox/Cubs trading an established, homegrown superstar based on some philosophical disagreement with paying a tax is just the height of greed. If I was a Cubs or Sox fan, I'd be livid.

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1 minute ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I will never understand a fan who wants profitability, knowing a correlation between spending and winning exists, solely for profitability's sake. Actually, that's not strong enough. Any fan who wants an owner to pocket dollars instead of investing in the team that they root for is deluded.

Fans should only root for efficiency to the point that it facilitates on-field improvement. The Yankees aren't saving luxury tax money to upgrade the roster, or the stadium, or spend more on amateurs, or improve their coaches. 

And the Red Sox/Cubs trading an established, homegrown superstar based on some philosophical disagreement with paying a tax is just the height of greed. If I was a Cubs or Sox fan, I'd be livid.

Yes, but why try to give yourself the best chance of winning when you can...*checks notes*...hope you can still win with a lesser roster and more money?

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1 minute ago, redsoxsuck05 said:

Yes, but why try to give yourself the best chance of winning when you can...*checks notes*...hope you can still win with a lesser roster and more money?

I'm not even being a **** about it. If you're rebuilding and you want to drop the MLB payroll/buy lottery tickets, alright. But you should be buying MiLB affiliates, throwing every dollar imaginable into facility upgrades, scouting, etc. You should still be spending every dime you can, just buy stuff that helps you 3-5 years from now instead of today.

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1 minute ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I'm not even being a **** about it. If you're rebuilding and you want to drop the MLB payroll/buy lottery tickets, alright. But you should be buying MiLB affiliates, throwing every dollar imaginable into facility upgrades, scouting, etc. You should still be spending every dime you can, just buy stuff that helps you 3-5 years from now instead of today.

But in 2019, being a fan is all about them Revenues - Expenses. Otherwise you are a communist.

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18 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I will never understand a fan who wants profitability, knowing a correlation between spending and winning exists, solely for profitability's sake. Actually, that's not strong enough. Any fan who wants an owner to pocket dollars instead of investing in the team that they root for is deluded.

Good know this doesnt represent my thinking. Phew! Good to know I'm not deluded LOL

19 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Fans should only root for efficiency to the point that it facilitates on-field improvement.

This is correct.

20 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

The Yankees aren't saving luxury tax money to upgrade the roster, or the stadium, or spend more on amateurs, or improve their coaches.

And you know where the NYY are spending their money how? Oh - its that general revenue concept again.
If they're not spending it - they're misusing it. Okay. Got it.

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40 minutes ago, Leader said:

Understood and I've heard/read it often enough here to recognize it.

It's the "general revenue" theory. They're rich so whats the cost of money to them? To listen to some around here - nothing.
They shouldnt care - which is antithetical to running a smart business and probably what made them rich to begin with.

Again - why spend $300M when its been proven that lesser spending teams can be just as successful as you on field?

Thats the disconnect that never gets resolved or answered by the "they're billionaires and general revenue/profit" theory.

I can provide evidence up the ying yang of lesser spending teams out performing the big spenders till I'm blue in the face - but it wont budge the concept that money means less the richer or more successful you become.

Which is a fallacy.

Alright. Fine. I've resigned myself that the concept wont go away....but it should. Baseball operations, actual spending versus on the field success indicate it should....but it wont. 
 

Are you a Koch brother?

How has it been proven that lesser spending teams are able to consistently be as successful as the big spenders?  There are plenty of small markets that have 2-3 really good years where they compete, but are then followed by several uncompetitive years where they have to restock their farm.  It's cyclical with them, and is a necessity.  There doesn't need to ever be a cycle with the big markets, as long as they are run correctly.  The Yankees are doing the right thing right now, by spending big time and still caring about amateur player scouting and development.   

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3 minutes ago, hrubes20 said:

Are you a Koch brother?

How has it been proven that lesser spending teams are able to consistently be as successful as the big spenders?  There are plenty of small markets that have 2-3 really good years where they compete, but are then followed by several uncompetitive years where they have to restock their farm.  It's cyclical with them, and is a necessity.  There doesn't need to ever be a cycle with the big markets, as long as they are run correctly.  The Yankees are doing the right thing right now, by spending big time and still caring about amateur player scouting and development.   

The correlation between spending and wins is anywhere between 0.25 and 0.5. A 5th grader could do this math.

Screenshot-2018-08-22-at-1.42.54-PM.png

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23 minutes ago, hrubes20 said:

Are you a Koch brother?

Nope - but outside their political views - I wish I was.

24 minutes ago, hrubes20 said:

How has it been proven that lesser spending teams are able to consistently be as successful as the big spenders?

Nobody I know has been saying this.

25 minutes ago, hrubes20 said:

The Yankees are doing the right thing right now, by spending big time and still caring about amateur player scouting and development.   

The NYY have been big spenders / top spenders for years and they just went thru their first decade w/o a WS appearance. The fact they're operating within the current CBA may be disconcerting to some. The fact that they're not just burning cash by blowing off the LT levels - and paying the tax penalty while tossing away draft picks and international money - that probably gives some around here sleepless nights. Oh well. Drugs might help. Might not.

It's not clear to me yet if the NYY are in the 72% penalty range or not at this stage - if so, that would entail loss of international money and draft position. To be determined, but when the new CBA is negotiated, I'm hopeful they'll operate within it's parameters as well.

The 2021 operational issues they'll need to address going forward are as follows:

Stanton - possible player opt out.
Britton - player opt out w/team option.
Tanaka - UFA
Paxton - UFA
DJLM - UFA
Torres - Arb 1
Urshela - Arb 1
Andujar - Arb 1
Judge - Arb 2
Sanchez - Arb 2
Green - Arb 2
Montgomery - Arb 2
Kahle - Arb 4

What extensions they can negotiate (or want to offer) is unclear at this point - but those UFA's wont come cheap to a team at (or close to) the LT ceiling already. Be interesting to see what decisions they make.
 

 

 

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An example of "targeted spending" and good baseball operation.....the Houston Astros.

2017 - payroll 138.7M - 17th in the league.
Minimum luxury tax level: 195M
Result: World Series winner.

2018 - payroll 163.5M - 9th in the league.
Minimum luxury tax level: 206M
Result: ALCS - lost to BOS the WS winner

2019 - payroll 168.8M - 8th in the league.
Minimum luxury tax level: 206M
Result: WS - lost to the Nats.

Perhaps there's some Astro fans wringing their hands that the team didnt spend more - but its hard to say they've not been successful over these years.  It can be done w/o "over spending."

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16 hours ago, kyle21121 said:

We made a noteable move. Doesn’t seem so bad 4/80. Anyone wanna tell me why it’s bad?

It's not "bad". 33 or not no team was getting Ryu for any less term. We need a ToR arm and a LH starting pitcher. We got both and hearing we're going hard after David Price.

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37 minutes ago, BillsGuy82 said:

It's not "bad". 33 or not no team was getting Ryu for any less term. We need a ToR arm and a LH starting pitcher. We got both and hearing we're going hard after David Price.

Yea I’ve heard that as well. I’m not sure if that’s still going to happen after Ryu but I mean if it does this off-season is a whole lot more interesting and different. Also heard about being in on Edwin but again that was before Shaw but I’d gladly give him a year or two and welcome him back. 

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5 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I will never understand a fan who wants profitability, knowing a correlation between spending and winning exists, solely for profitability's sake. Actually, that's not strong enough. Any fan who wants an owner to pocket dollars instead of investing in the team that they root for is deluded.

Fans should only root for efficiency to the point that it facilitates on-field improvement. The Yankees aren't saving luxury tax money to upgrade the roster, or the stadium, or spend more on amateurs, or improve their coaches. 

And the Red Sox/Cubs trading an established, homegrown superstar based on some philosophical disagreement with paying a tax is just the height of greed. If I was a Cubs or Sox fan, I'd be livid.

I’m not sure any fan wants profitability. The fact is that we follow business’ that will take all stakeholders into account. The customer (fans) are not the only stakeholders of a franchise. There is also the ownership group. I don’t like it but to get angry would be a waste of time because it is what it is. 
 

With that said, the Cubs and Red Sox are not nearly as good as they were during the WS years and now look to trade their best players for underwhelming returns (compared to having their star stay for the next 11 years). Losing stars players that fans love should be a large factor in their profitability calculation to the point where you attach a prospect to a bad contract instead of lose your star. If I’m the Cubs I attach what I need to attach to Heyward in the farm to deal him and extend Bryant. 

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1 hour ago, kyle21121 said:

Yea I’ve heard that as well. I’m not sure if that’s still going to happen after Ryu but I mean if it does this off-season is a whole lot more interesting and different. Also heard about being in on Edwin but again that was before Shaw but I’d gladly give him a year or two and welcome him back.

I love the potential of our lineup especially if we put Travis Shaw in 3 hole which would be the best place for him to bounce back

Biggio (L)

Bichette (R)

Shaw (L)

Vladdy (R)

That's a quality top 4 but I feel we need another LH Bat. Putting Shaw between Bichette and Vladdy would allow him to see quality pitches and could trigger 2017/18 Travis Shaw 

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