Broncofan Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 (edited) 8 hours ago, Matts4313 said: If you get bored and want to translate whatever this means into english, I would be interested to follow along. Most bettors use a 100 unit bankroll . It can be 100 dollars - each unit then would be $1. If your bankroll is 10K, then a unit is $100. It’s easier to speak in terms of 1U / 2U / 4U bets than $$. Since everyone bets by different scales. It’s also a way of expressing confidence in bets (EG I’m betting 4U on this game). ATS - against the spread picks. Race bets - betting teams (usually underdogs) to be first to score to 15/20/25/30 pts. If this is done exclusively with dogs then you only need to be right about 35-40 percent of time to b profitable here because the payouts are always more than double (and if you hit all 4 races in a game it can be 3-4x your money - PHI week 1 was +130 to 15 / +175 to 20 / +275 to 25 / +425 to 30 pts). That’s why at 1-1 I’m still ahead by a fair margin. Player props - self explanatory. In this case it’s yardage / reception props only. TD props - props on players scoring TD’s. The odds for scoring 1 TD are anywhere from -200 (think Mccaffrey sure thing, you have to bet $200 to win $100) to +600 (4th - 5th options on a team). I also bet the prop to score 2+ TD which is generally 8-15x greater. I only target players who are at +150 odds or more to score 1 & at least 18-1 to score 2. Corey Davis was +275 to score 1 TD and +3300 to score 2 TD week 1 - so I can be 3-6 and still have a major profit. Again going after longer odds TD props allows me to hit at less than 30 percent and have significant profit if I hit 5-6 2-TD props each year. Hope that helps. Edited September 21, 2021 by Broncofan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonStark Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Huge week 1. Horrible week 2. The primetime games (Washington only winning by 1, Chiefs losing, and the Lions not being able to cover my +17.5 because of a stupid flag) killed me and the Chargers closed the casket. Need a rebound in week 3. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Broncofan said: Most bettors use a 100 unit bankroll . It can be 100 dollars - each unit then would be $1. If your bankroll is 10K, then a unit is $100. It’s easier to speak in terms of 1U / 2U / 4U bets than $$. Since everyone bets by different scales. It’s also a way of expressing confidence in bets (EG I’m betting 4U on this game). So you started at $10k and through two weeks you are at $14,200 based on NFL games? Do you have this sort of long term track record? And you post all your bets here? Im just going to turn you into my Al Pacino/Matthew McConnaughey (old betting movie) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 34 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: So you started at $10k and through two weeks you are at $14,200 based on NFL games? Do you have this sort of long term track record? And you post all your bets here? Im just going to turn you into my Al Pacino/Matthew McConnaughey (old betting movie) I only started tracking publicly this year. I have a positive ROI in football but it’s not this good (nor will it stay that way lol - when the 33-1 2-TD hits and you win your only race, it’s a ridiculous week). But my bets record from last year’s thread stands on its own. The all-time best handicappers succeed at 57-58 percent of even-odds bets. If you invest 10 percent of your weekly bets in parleys you need to hit at >55 percent to make a profit and that assumes you are taking even money (or plus money bets), and not heavily juiced odds. It’s why betting single game is always the default. The reason why I’m up so high now is because I hit the long shot and correctly picked the dog race winner - those 2 wins account for 24U profit alone. Those can’t be depended upon, but when they hit, it keeps the bankroll healthy even when you have a cold 2-3 week stretch (which will happen). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 (edited) 22 hours ago, Broncofan said: OK for week 3, there are 3 plays I see where I think the line moves so hard it's better to buy in now: WFT +9.0 @ BUF - yes, the Bills smashed Mia. And yes, no Fitzmagic for BUF. But they get 10 days, and more importantly, BUF's biggest problem fits well with what WFT does best - that front 7 of WFT vs. BUF's OL, and lack of RB/TE play. On the flip side, the WFT run game, and Logan Thomas, can help neutralize the smothering secondary for BUF's D. I'm not calling for a WFT win, but 9 pts is just way too high. LAC +6.5 @ KC - carbon copy reasoning for the game here. I get it's at KC. I get that Mahomes & co. will be out for blood. And if Kenneth Murray is out next week, it will make me more nervous. But again, LAC plays KC hard, they know each other, and KC's biggest issue is with OL, and that LAC D did a great job on DAL's O after struggling in the 1Q. Again, I don't even need to call for a LAC W (although I'm tempted, and I might just take the races for the extra + money value), but taking that many points, I'll do that any day. ARI -7 @ JAX - WC teams going for early games does worry me - but man, that Jags team is in disarray. And while the Cards were fortunate to win vs. Minny yesterday - the talent gap is way too high, the matchups are bad (JAX OL vs. ARI pass rush, Kyler & the WR's vs. JAX D), and man, Urban Meyer looks overmatched coaching at the NFL level. Put another way - I don't think the Broncos are a better team than the Cards, and they pose the same matchup problems (or even worse with Kyler vs. Teddy B) for JAX. The line's already moving to 7.5, I'd tease it to keep it to -7 up to -140. There will be more, but locking those 3 so I can get the better line (if I'm wrong, I'm wrong there, but thinking these lines will be get higher as the week goes on. I'll even do a 4-team parley with A-Rod over 2.5 TD tonight to get a nice 11-1 play. BOL! So far the lines haven't moved, but I'm still firmly on all 3 plays above. Adding 2 more: CAR -7 -125 @HOU - For TNF, I'm going to tease a half-point off the spread. No Tyrod Taylor, short week, and man, the CAR D looks amazing. Not sure CAR is this good given NO didn't have their coaches and played on the road, and it's a short week - but that also means HOU can't get much time in for Davis Mills, either.v PHI +4 @DAL - I know, I know, DAL has played PHI well - but the trench matchup IMO swings to PHI with all the injuries to the DAL DL, and the front 4 of PHI will give DAL everything they can handle. I'm also very down on DAL's game management and coaching - stuff like McCarthy playing for a 55-yard FG and letting 25 secs run off without gaining more yardage - well, can't back a team as a favorite if the matchups are that close. McCarthy's the type of coach who'll play for the winning FG rather than go for the jugular with a TD, so if you give me 4 pts, I'll take the other side. For now, I'm just taking the points, as I could see this be tied / PHI up by 1-2 with DAL driving type game, but if Sunday goes well, this is the spot where I'd consider the RACE to 15/20/25/30 (if the early games go really well, might do LAC vs. KC too, but that's less likely). The way CAR could fail to cover - lose the TO game by 2 or more. Otherwise, I'm pretty confident, putting 2U down. Team ATS picks so far for Week 3: CAR -7 @HOU TNF -125 ARI - 7 @JAX -125 LAC +6.5 @KC -105 WFT +9.0 @BUF -105 PHI +4.0 @DAL -110, if Sunday goes well likely consider Race to 15/20/25/30 No player props out yet, so those are my plays so far for Week 3. Edited September 21, 2021 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 16 minutes ago, Broncofan said: PHI +4 @DAL - I know, I know, DAL has played PHI well - but the trench matchup IMO swings to PHI with all the injuries to the DAL DL, and the front 4 of PHI will give DAL everything they can handle. I'm also very down on DAL's game management and coaching - stuff like McCarthy playing for a 55-yard FG and letting 25 secs run off without gaining more yardage - well, can't back a team as a favorite if the matchups are that close. McCarthy's the type of coach who'll play for the winning FG rather than go for the jugular with a TD, so if you give me 4 pts, I'll take the other side. For now, I'm just taking the points, as I could see this be tied / PHI up by 1-2 with DAL driving type game, but if Sunday goes well, this is the spot where I'd consider the RACE to 15/20/25/30 (if the early games go really well, might do LAC vs. KC too, but that's less likely). Let me know if you want some feedback on this take or not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeotheLion Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Cardinals/Panthers tease this week. I'm sure 1 team plays down to the opponent but I just don't see the Texans without Tyrod or the Jags spoiling that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 32 minutes ago, Broncofan said: CAR -7 -125 @HOU - For TNF, I'm going to tease a half-point off the spread. No Tyrod Taylor, short week, and man, the CAR D looks amazing. Not sure CAR is this good given NO didn't have their coaches and played on the road, and it's a short week - but that also means HOU can't get much time in for Davis Mills, either.v The way CAR could fail to cover - lose the TO game by 2 or more. Otherwise, I'm pretty confident, putting 2U down. Mills was 31/65 (47%) for 333 yards (5.1 Y/A) with 2 TD/4 INT in the preseason against backups. He had 11 starts in college and is nowhere near close to being ready to play meaningful snaps in the NFL. Especially against a very talented defense on a short week. Houston is going to get blown out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, LeotheLion said: Cardinals/Panthers tease this week. I'm sure 1 team plays down to the opponent but I just don't see the Texans without Tyrod or the Jags spoiling that. Have you seen Trevor Lawrence or Davis Mills play? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: Let me know if you want some feedback on this take or not. I was considering betting on Philly but after further research that's one of the games I don't feel great about. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeotheLion Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Just now, NYRaider said: Have you seen Trevor Lawrence or Davis Mills play? Yes? That is why I am making the bet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 5 hours ago, LeotheLion said: Cardinals/Panthers tease this week. I'm sure 1 team plays down to the opponent but I just don't see the Texans without Tyrod or the Jags spoiling that. Yeah, I have that teased with Baltimore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 6 hours ago, Matts4313 said: Let me know if you want some feedback on this take or not. It goes without saying that feedback is welcome, it's not meant to be written in stone lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 5 hours ago, LeotheLion said: Yes? That is why I am making the bet. Misread it, I thought you meant that Mills was going to beat Carolina. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 6 hours ago, Broncofan said: WFT +9.0 @BUF -105 It's a big spread to cover but it's one I'd be a little concerned about. Buffalo has only allowed 1 offensive TD in 2 games and just won 35-0 on the road while Josh Allen played pretty meh. Herbert and Jones were both able to have a ton of success moving the ball on their defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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