GDT Week 13: LAC vs DEN: DREW LOCK EDITION

[The Helicopter]

1 hour ago, jolly red giant said:

I get that you don't like Fangio - but you know as well as I do that the real problem starts with Ellis and then travels through Elway.

I would be surprised if there wasn't some friction within the Broncos camp - they are 4-8 and potentially could be 6-6 or better with a few odd plays here and there. We have no idea how well Fangio is performing within the organisation - anymore than we know how Scangs is doing. In terms of play - the defence, despite its obvious limitations now, is still playing to a high standard and Fangio should get credit for that. The offence has been a lot more hit and miss - and I suspect that this is because 1. the lack of talent - and 2. Scangs learning how to be an OC. I am sure there are times when Fangio the DC is scratching his head when the OC calls a play - but as HC he needs to work with his staff. 

Now - is Fangio a HC - only time will tell - I do not think that 12 games into what even Elway now accepts is a major rebuild is enough to make that decision. I certainly hope that he is - I would hate to see another bloody coaching change in the next year or two - that just puts off progress for another couple of years (and I am pushing on in years now so I want to see wins asap). I don't have a problem with a healthy tension between coaches - it can help the competitive spirit and get the brain working. They don't have to like one another - they have to be able to work together. However - a lot of this comes from the top - Ellis and Elway to Fangio and the coordinators to the rest of the staff and then to the players - unfortunately, given the record of Ellis, I have to say there is a tinge of pessimism in there along with my optimism.

I believe AAA's points are valid and looked at through the same lens of the FO doesn't know what they're doing and we have a coaching carousel it all ties together. Leadership through consistency and co-operation are key and we don't have either. Results aside, keeping Fangio around or letting him go doesn't really address the problem. Right now, I believe letting him go does more harm than good to the organization.

[AnAngryAmerican]

4 hours ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

Roby should still be on this team. Letting him walk for a 10/1 deal was silly IMO.

Well we had to bring in a Fangio guy so we signed Callahan, who hasn’t even played a practice snap. 

A better decision would have been to retain Roby. Oh well. Another mistake made, another mistake paid for. 

[BroncoBruin]

When healthy, Callahan is the better corner and better scheme fit. Obviously, this team needs to stop thinking they're getting good deals on constantly injured players. But I don't remember anyone here complaining about not re-signing Roby, so this is pure 20/20 hindsight. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

2 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

I get that you don't like Fangio - but you know as well as I do that the real problem starts with Ellis and then travels through Elway.

I would be surprised if there wasn't some friction within the Broncos camp - they are 4-8 and potentially could be 6-6 or better with a few odd plays here and there. We have no idea how well Fangio is performing within the organisation - anymore than we know how Scangs is doing. In terms of play - the defence, despite its obvious limitations now, is still playing to a high standard and Fangio should get credit for that. The offence has been a lot more hit and miss - and I suspect that this is because 1. the lack of talent - and 2. Scangs learning how to be an OC. I am sure there are times when Fangio the DC is scratching his head when the OC calls a play - but as HC he needs to work with his staff. 

Well, no, we know that Fangio is not performing well within the organization given the JLC piece, as well as what I’ve heard from my trusted source. You guys should trust me enough (my track record being correct FAR more often than not for 13 years here at FF speaks for itself) to believe the problems internally are real. 

As a DC he is fine. So was Wade Phillips. Norv Turner was a champion OC but a disaster as a HC. Vic is one of those coaches. Good coordinator, lousy head coach. 

Here’s the thing about Vic - he gets one chance at his age to be a HC, he will do it his way, and when he fails he will go be a DC for yet another team. The problem is is that his failure as a HC has to happen on our watch, for our (formerly) respected franchise. He doesn’t care what wreckage he leaves in his wake, he has one shot and he’s not going to change. 

The hope now, the ONLY hope, for the entire franchise, has to be that he has enough in him to keep the defense where it is. Then, Lock is a hit, we get healthy, have a good draft, find success in free agency. Then, with real talent, a respectable roster and a FO that is viewed as competent, we can become a desirable enough of a destination that a real HC candidate applies for the job and Ellis/Elway hire him. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

And, for the record, I respect Vic for doing it his way. If you get one shot when you’re already 60 might as well do it your way. At least he’s his own man and not Mac trying to be a Belichick clone or Vance not having a clue what the hell he was doing. Like I said, if I had a beer with Vic I’d probably like him. 

At least he’s true to himself and that was probably something Ellis/the trust/Elway found appealing (especially considering they were planning what was in effect a co-HC thing with him and Kubes). It’s not going to work out, especially long-term, but considering the optics there’s no way we can fire him until we’re more well-regraded league-wide. And, truthfully, that may not happen with Ellis/the trust/Elway running the show. 

Edited December 3, 2019 by AnAngryAmerican

[jolly red giant]

The problem is the 'real HC candidate' - its not like they grow on trees - most HCs are re-threads - and the new, young, hot-shots tend to flame out. 

We had a chance with K Shanahan but Ellis blew that one up - we had another shot when Elway planned to dump Joseph and bring in Mike with Kubes (and Cousins as QB) - and Ellis blew that one up as well. 

Of the coaches that were hired this year the only one that would have been worth the effort was LeFleur - and would you come to a team without a QB when you had Rodgers as the alternative? I wouldn't have wanted any of last years bunch.

Getting a good HC is as hard (if not harder) than getting a good QB - and usually if you have a good QB you will get more interest in the HC job - even then there is no guarantee that you will hit with your HC candidate. So the key is hoping Lock is up to the job - and by the time we find that out we will know if Fangio is any good. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

4 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

The problem is the 'real HC candidate' - its not like they grow on trees - most HCs are re-threads - and the new, young, hot-shots tend to flame out. 

We had a chance with K Shanahan but Ellis blew that one up - we had another shot when Elway planned to dump Joseph and bring in Mike with Kubes (and Cousins as QB) - and Ellis blew that one up as well. 

Of the coaches that were hired this year the only one that would have been worth the effort was LeFleur - and would you come to a team without a QB when you had Rodgers as the alternative? I wouldn't have wanted any of last years bunch.

Getting a good HC is as hard (if not harder) than getting a good QB - and usually if you have a good QB you will get more interest in the HC job - even then there is no guarantee that you will hit with your HC candidate. So the key is hoping Lock is up to the job - and by the time we find that out we will know if Fangio is any good. 

Oh I agree 100%. I said it the day the decision was made that passing on Kyle for Vance is the biggest mistake this franchise has made in my lifetime and will be one that haunts them for a decade or more.

It’s not quite (yet) drafting Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan but it’s close.

[copeland]

On 12/2/2019 at 9:53 PM, Cutler06 said:

Clearly you have a good point, but add this into the reasoning you requested

 

In the drafts where Elway has selected beyond the 20th pick, his draft look like this, starting in 2013

2013  DT Sylvester Williams (28)

2014 CB Bradley Roby (31)

2015 DE Shane Ray (23)

2016 QB Paxton Lynch (26)

2017 OT Garrett Bowles (20)

Notice, not ONE of Elway's picks in that time frame in that draft area is still on this team ? Now granted the past two drafts seem to have had a change in philosophies but better opportunities with better talent choices may halp thaty endeavor, which we do have to make up for. We're not in the position to select BPA and we all know we have to continue to have good drafts to recover from previous failures. Agreed with picking the right player, and having a sh*tload of luck to go along with it but why let Elway walk though a minefield without a metal detector ? He still may screw it up but the higher we get the better chance he doesn't blow up another draft. 

That’s where we seem to disagree...picking higher imo does not guarantee by default, or by chance, getting a better player. Go through the past few (10yrs or so) years of the draft and you’ll see what I mean. It also shows that there are, by an unbelievable margin, far more players selected in the the first round, no matter how high or low, that end up being average players, instead of studs, so to speak. The margin is very small.
The point of my post was to show that it doesn’t matter where the selection is in the draft. So the difference between 5 and 15 IMO is a lot smaller than what people think. If none of the players Elway  picked in the last few years are still on the roster, that’s plain and simply bad drafting, combined with bad luck. Check out the top ten picks in the draft for that 10 year period, and remember as you do, that 95% of the players selected in those drafts,  where hailed as can’t miss at their positions. About 25% ( or less) ended up living up to expectations, and a bigger percentage ended up being a complete mess. Keep in mind, this reiterates how important it is to draft well, and let’s be honest, simply get lucky.

[Cutler06]

1 hour ago, copeland said:

That’s where we seem to disagree...picking higher imo does not guarantee by default, or by chance, getting a better player. Go through the past few (10yrs or so) years of the draft and you’ll see what I mean. It also shows that there are, by an unbelievable margin, far more players selected in the the first round, no matter how high or low, that end up being average players, instead of studs, so to speak. The margin is very small.
The point of my post was to show that it doesn’t matter where the selection is in the draft. So the difference between 5 and 15 IMO is a lot smaller than what people think. If none of the players Elway  picked in the last few years are still on the roster, that’s plain and simply bad drafting, combined with bad luck. Check out the top ten picks in the draft for that 10 year period, and remember as you do, that 95% of the players selected in those drafts,  where hailed as can’t miss at their positions. About 25% ( or less) ended up living up to expectations, and a bigger percentage ended up being a complete mess. Keep in mind, this reiterates how important it is to draft well, and let’s be honest, simply get lucky.

Well, IMO you aren't going into depth, a couple more factors you've overlook. The GM's typically selecting in the top 10 are GM's like those for CIN, WAS, OAK where the GM's were morons. You also don't factor in those teams were possibly selecting for need rather than BPA which probably forced some of the better player down in the draft.

And my point was simply if the Broncos select higher. there's a CHANCE Elway could find better talent for this team and I stand by that. Now could Elway be one of the morons I spoke of....sure, but I'm not totally unhappy with the few top 10 picks he's had so far.

[AKRNA]

10 minutes ago, Cutler06 said:

Well, IMO you aren't going into depth, a couple more factors you've overlook. The GM's typically selecting in the top 10 are GM's like those for CIN, WAS, OAK where the GM's were morons. You also don't factor in those teams were possibly selecting for need rather than BPA which probably forced some of the better player down in the draft.

And my point was simply if the Broncos select higher. there's a CHANCE Elway could find better talent for this team and I stand by that. Now could Elway be one of the morons I spoke of....sure, but I'm not totally unhappy with the few top 10 picks he's had so far.

I love Bradley Chubb, but still wish we would have taken Nelson.

[jsthomp2007]

7 hours ago, AKRNA said:

I love Bradley Chubb, but still wish we would have taken Nelson.

If we had Nelson and Risner we'd just need three more solid draft picks to create a very solid OL.  And, let's face it.  A good offensive line is what really wins games and championships, but the Broncos just don't want to use resources there.  Actually, it seems like most teams don't.  All teams want the big superstar.  

[BroncosFan2010]

Quote

I love Bradley Chubb, but still wish we would have taken Nelson.

In retrospect, we should have taken Josh Allen. Which is insane to me but at this point, its true.

I think Nelson or a trade down are much preferable in retrospect to Chubb.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

In retrospect, we should have taken Josh Allen. Which is insane to me but at this point, its true.

I think Nelson or a trade down are much preferable in retrospect to Chubb.

Yeah, I'll give credit where it's due - those who touted hard on Josh Allen - he's still got a ton of work to do to become an elite QB - but he's already someone who a franchise can feel comfortable with as their guy if all he ever does is just become a "little" better in accuracy.   No doubt if we had him now, we'd be in way better position (and we'd have used the other 2nd rounder on help elsewhere, and kept the other day 2 pick). 

Now, if Allen wants to get to the top tier, he's got become a LOT more accurate - he misses throws even JAG's make.   But his breathtaking arm talent makes throws only Mahomes or ARod can duplicate.   And the big thing - he's recognized when to bail on a play and use his legs, or throw it away - he's not turning the ball over since an early rough patch (the NE game being the low point).   That's huge for his development and progression as a franchise QB.     If it's sustained, it will cement his status as a "hit" pick for QB early with BUF - their fanbase should be excited, the team's success is more than just on him, but he's a huge part - and it's not flukey, the growth is very much sustainable.

 

[AKRNA]

8 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

If we had Nelson and Risner we'd just need three more solid draft picks to create a very solid OL.  And, let's face it.  A good offensive line is what really wins games and championships, but the Broncos just don't want to use resources there.  Actually, it seems like most teams don't.  All teams want the big superstar.  

I know it seems trite, but at the end of the day the key to winning championships is running the ball and stopping the run. It was 50 years ago and still is today.

Basically, the LOS determines the winner. Always has, always will. 

[Broncofan]

Well, this isn't good news - MCL for Von.   If it's grade 1, then 1-2 weeks is the normal time course.  If it's a grade 2, then we're at 4-6 weeks, especially for a position where explosion/lateral movement is required.   And what Von is describing, sounds pretty normal.   Knee is better, but not there yet.

 

Edited December 5, 2019 by Broncofan