What Should the Bucs do w/ Jameis Winston?

[Hukos]

58 minutes ago, patriotsheatyan said:

You know they did better back to back seasons with Fitzpatrick than Winston?

Fitzpatrick eventually melted down and Winston won his job back though.

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, wwhickok said:

 If I'm being completely honest I said above to cut him but I don't think it's just that simple I don't think that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can move forward with him but that doesn't mean another team couldn't be better with him. However they have got to limit what they allow him to do it far as passing numbers. I think that Jameis Winston has pretty much worn out his welcome in tampa bay and I think it's time for that team to move on at quarterback but I do believe that Jameis Winston can evolve into something of a Alex Smith for someone

Jameis is either going to be the football version of Big Ben in his peak years, or bust out.    Going game manager is about the least likely route in his career path.    If the Alex Smith comp was about production, I guess, but that's a terrible play style comp.

[patriotsheatyan]

3 hours ago, Hukos said:

Fitzpatrick eventually melted down and Winston won his job back though.

Was given the job back.

[sryan66611]

1 hour ago, patriotsheatyan said:

Was given the job back.

Nah...   They brought him in for one game vs. the Bengals when Jameis threw like 4 picks but other than that Jameis started the rest of the season.

Fitz only started like 4 games and the 4th game he was playing vs. the Bears and they took him out in the 2nd half cuz he was playing terrible.  

[patriotsheatyan]

10 minutes ago, sryan66611 said:

Nah...   They brought him in for one game vs. the Bengals when Jameis threw like 4 picks but other than that Jameis started the rest of the season.

Fitz only started like 4 games and the 4th game he was playing vs. the Bears and they took him out in the 2nd half cuz he was playing terrible.  

No, I’m saying Winston was given the job back. He never won it and lost any competition by a landslide. Winston had a significantly lower passer rating and worse record than Fitzpatrick did in 17-18. 

[Shanedorf]

the bucs should cut Winston loose and watch 31 other GM's say: No thanks
Then they should draft/acquire a new starting QB for 2020 and beyond

Winston isn't getting any better, in fact his fatal flaw is getting worse as he reached new heights in his INT % this year under Arians
Jameis hit 4.3% on INTs, the worst in his 5 year career. After 68 NFL games, this is who he is: A bad decision maker on and off the field
I'd dump him and not give it a second thought

[Hukos]

Just now, Shanedorf said:

the bucs should cut Winston loose and watch 31 other GM's say: No thanks
Then they should draft/acquire a new starting QB for 2020 and beyond

Winston isn't getting any better, in fact his fatal flaw is getting worse as he reached new heights in his INT % this year under Arians
Jameis hit 4.3% on INTs, the worst in his 5 year career. After 68 NFL games, this is who he is: A bad decision maker on and off the field
I'd dump him and not give it a second thought

Drafting a new QB would basically require TB give up at least 3 first round picks to move up into the top 5, unless there's some gem in the rough you really like. Or unless you plan going into 2020 without a QB (as there probably won't be one to have in free agency), in which you've now hit QB purgatory and you're hitting 4-12 every year.

Getting rid of Winston could be the right decision, but it could also be one of those cases where it backfires because 5 years from now, they're still looking for a QB. Even a really competent front office could royally screw this decision up for years to come, much less Tampa's FO.

I'm a Falcons fan, and Winston almost always tears us a new one (if you extrapolated his stats against us across a season, it's basically MVP level), so from my perspective, I'm hoping Winston never really gets "it" figured out because we have enough QBs in this division to begin with. But if the Bucs dumped him and went into QB hell for another decade, I certainly won't complain from Atlanta's side of the field.

[Xenos]

19 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Before ppl say this is Jameis' locked in future - keep in mind Arians' offensive system calls for 3 elements:

1.  A QB with the arm talent to excel vertically.

2.  A QB who understands the system to put the ball in spots, way ahead of seeing the guy come open.

3.  A QB willing to push the ball vertically.

Element #2 takes the longest to develop - Carson Palmer's first 8 games with Arians - 10 TD, 14 INT, 3 fumbles.   2H?  14 TD's, 8 INT's, 3 fumbles.    And then in 2014 - 2016, Palmer goes off.    Because Arians' system calls for deep shots with a ton of anticipation/timing, you're going to see a huge learning curve year 1.   Now, that's not the only issue Winston has - but it adds a ton of context to understanding why Arians has been so patient this year. 

Winston's more mobile, but otherwise the same skill profile is there that Arians looks for.    The tricky part - you can't have a game manager succeed with Arians' system.   You need a gunslinger.   And frankly, with Evans and Godwin, it leverages their talent to maximum benefit as well.   Under a different O, you could make a strong case that the TO's outweigh the good Winston does.  But in an Arians O, you need a Winston-type arm talent with gunslinger mentality.    That's why he's been so willing to sit through Winston's VERY painful 2019 1H, and not consider a switch, because the growing pains are real in his system (again, not to absolve Winston at all, he deserves about 18 of those 24 picks all on his own, that's still too high).   But the investment is because Arians sees that Winston's toolset fits what he needs in his QB to recreate the ARI peak O days.

And before you think this is conjecture - this is what Winston & Arians just said today:

https://www.tampabay.com/sports/bucs/2019/12/16/jameis-winston-makes-his-case-for-staying-in-tampa-bay/

Winston...

Arians....

Considering that GM Licht got extended, and was also found to have created a burner account for which he defended Winston on Twitter tirelessly over the offseason and last year...and the Glazer family is a very patient ownership philosophy-wise.....it seems a foregone conclusion Winston's at least getting tagged.   A shorter, 3-4 year deal might be in the works.

Winston absolutely owns the TO's - he's not trying to make the crazy hero play anymore, but he still doesn't see the underneath guy at critical times (the TO today and last week for his picks to Darius Leonard).   It's crazy, because it's not a read progression inability, nor that he locks on to 1 guy.   It's some weird blind spot thing.  

But he's also a guy working with a bottom 10 OL in pass pro by DVOA, a bottom 10 run game, and now for the past 2 weeks, he's led teams to W's without Evans, and then for the 2H this week, no Godwin or Evans, and this week also had a broken thumb AND the starting LT out.   Honestly, TAM's best bet is to hit LT in Rd1, hit CB & IOL in FA (and add IOL depth on Day 2), and then see what comes out of Year 2 growth understanding Arians system.  

Sometimes I wonder what would have happened if the Chargers had chosen Arians as HC in 2013 instead of McCoy. Philip loved the vertical attack because of his time with Norv even though I always felt he was more suited for a quick strike offense.

[sryan66611]

1 hour ago, patriotsheatyan said:

No, I’m saying Winston was given the job back. He never won it and lost any competition by a landslide. Winston had a significantly lower passer rating and worse record than Fitzpatrick did in 17-18. 

ehhh not really they were pretty even but its whatever

Jameis 19 TD 14 INT record 3-6  Jameis started 9 games Rating - 90.2

Ryan 17 TD 12 INT record 2-5 Ryan started 7 games Rating - 100.4

[patriotsheatyan]

1 hour ago, sryan66611 said:

ehhh not really they were pretty even but its whatever

Jameis 19 TD 14 INT record 3-6  Jameis started 9 games Rating - 90.2

Ryan 17 TD 12 INT record 2-5 Ryan started 7 games Rating - 100.4

Throw in 2017 and combine the numbers.

[Manny/Patrick]

Move him to RB, worked well for Lamar

[sryan66611]

28 minutes ago, patriotsheatyan said:

Throw in 2017 and combine the numbers.

I think your getting mixed up with another Fitz season...   2017 he played 3 games for the Bucs and that was when he (Jameis) had a shoulder injury.  It would have actually made his stats worse.

[patriotsheatyan]

30 minutes ago, sryan66611 said:

I think your getting mixed up with another Fitz season...   2017 he played 3 games for the Bucs and that was when he (Jameis) had a shoulder injury.  It would have actually made his stats worse.

I’m not remotely confused. Add the numbers in. Fitzpatrick was 4-6 vs Winston 6-16 during those two seasons and Fitzpatrick had a passer rating nearly ten points higher.

[sryan66611]

19 minutes ago, patriotsheatyan said:

I’m not remotely confused. Add the numbers in. Fitzpatrick was 4-6 vs Winston 6-16 during those two seasons and Fitzpatrick had a passer rating nearly ten points higher.

Ok, the record is better but his stats actually drop.   his rating would drop to ~93  I just don't understand why it would be relevant to bring those in when it makes his rating worse.

Either way, it's fine this is kinda pointless tbh so I'm just going to leave it at that....  

[TecmoSuperJoe]

16 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

You can mitigate the turnovers by having some semblance of a running game. The turnovers will dissipate with that.

I don't see how that is going to help Winston read coverages better or throwing a football to the correct spot. Sure the turnovers would go down as a result of Winston not throwing a football, or not dropping back and fumbling, but the touchdowns would also go down as well. You'd just be passing the ball less. That isn't solving the problem of Winston improving as a passer, and not chucking YOLO rocks. 

Edited December 17, 2019 by PapaShogun