What Should the Bucs do w/ Jameis Winston?

[redsoxsuck05]

38 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

He's basically Eli Manning. You could do worse. Just have to hope those TO lessen the more familiar he gets in Arians System.

Manning has averaged 16INT per season over his career. So has Famous Jameis!

I mean, in 2010 Eli threw 25 picks (even tho he was really unlucky that year). Then in 2011, when everyone’s doubting him he puts up an incredibly gutsy year with a crappy O-Line, running game, and defense. We also had two great receivers and one special pass rusher.

Gilbride’s offense was really similar to Arians’, wasn’t it? Vertical passing game with complex, long-developing routes?

All I’m saying is that gunslingers as talented as Winston just need to have everything click for one year and who knows what happens. I’ll take that over a consistent Alex Smith anyday.

Of course if the Bucs ever make the playoffs the defense will have to show up like the 2011 Giants’ did.

Edited December 18, 2019 by redsoxsuck05

[Soko]

For those saying tag: what do you do if he holds out?

[N4L]

1 hour ago, Yin-Yang said:

For those saying tag: what do you do if he holds out?

I would play hardball with him then. 

Hes not going to hold out. I think the tag for QBs is going to be like 28-30 million dollars. Hes not walking away from that.

Hes confident in himself, and would be betting that he would be able to have a good year under arians and then he would be in line for an even bigger pay day. 

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, bucsfan333 said:

BA actually just mentioned today going 15-0 with a rookie Roethlisberger and making the playoffs with a rookie Luck. He doesn't seem to mind having a rookie QB. He said it just depends on the guy.

Our secondary has actually played really well since cutting VHIII. It's a small sample size, sure. But our secondary is starting three rookies and two second year players. Experience has always been our biggest need. 

Carlton Davis makes a decent #2.  Jamel Dean has really come on and so has Bunting.  If they added a top 2 CB via FA they’d really have a solid top 4.     Their S play needs a big upgrade.   That’s the key to improve in the offseason on D (and another EDGE support type player to spell Barrett). 

On O it’s so painfully apparent they need to upgrade T and at least 1 IOL spot.   Going T Rd1 and IOL/S Day 2 would help them so much.   I’d also hit the deep RB class to get a true pass catching threat at RB to complement Ronald Jones in Rd4-5 (RB being deep enough you can wait that long if you aren’t looking bellcow).   This team is my favorite dark horse to win a division (not last to first but a big upset in mind of non-Buc fans and Vegas).  
 

  
 

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by Broncofan

[Split the Sticks]

2 hours ago, N4L said:

I would play hardball with him then. 

Hes not going to hold out. I think the tag for QBs is going to be like 28-30 million dollars. Hes not walking away from that.

Hes confident in himself, and would be betting that he would be able to have a good year under arians and then he would be in line for an even bigger pay day. 

If they tag him they'd be out of their freekin' mind. But they could LOL, I've seen surprises like that before.

[Nabbs4u]

38 minutes ago, Split the Sticks said:

If they tag him they'd be out of their freekin' mind. But they could LOL, I've seen surprises like that before.

What's the Tag Number? If anything it's the smarter of the Two (long term deal) real options because letting him Walk without a Viable replacement is just Stupid!

[Malfatron]

sign him to a lowball 3 year deal

Edited December 18, 2019 by Malfatron

[43M]

7 hours ago, Malfatron said:

sign him to a lowball 3 year deal

He isnt going to sign that without testing the market....depending what you mean by low ball.  If he hits the market, he will surely get $22-25m a year.  

Bucs best bet is to tag him IMO.  They wont be in position to get a premier QB and Winston still has upside.   

[Split the Sticks]

11 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

What's the Tag Number? If anything it's the smarter of the Two (long term deal) real options because letting him Walk without a Viable replacement is just Stupid!

I don't know Nabbs but the average of the top three has to put it somewhere around $27 mill I'd say. 

Yes, getting a suitable replacement is something they have to have for sure, before they release him. Agreed.

[bucsfan333]

If Kirk Cousins can get a 100% guaranteed contract at $28M per as a FA, Jameis is gonna get more than $25M on the open market.

[Danger]

Jameis probably looks at a deal comparable to the one Nick Foles got.

[RandyMossIsBoss]

1 hour ago, bucsfan333 said:

If Kirk Cousins can get a 100% guaranteed contract at $28M per as a FA, Jameis is gonna get more than $25M on the open market.

If you are implying that Jameis is at, or above, the level of Cousins when he entered FA, you'll need to explain. Cousins was putting similar bulk totals with much better efficiency in the 2 or 3 years leading up to his payday in Minny. Even had a playoff trip under his belt. The 3rd most talented WR Jameis has thrown to was the most talented WR Cousins ever got to throw to (DeSean). 

[bucsfan333]

2 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

If you are implying that Jameis is at, or above, the level of Cousins when he entered FA, you'll need to explain. Cousins was putting similar bulk totals with much better efficiency in the 2 or 3 years leading up to his payday in Minny. Even had a playoff trip under his belt. The 3rd most talented WR Jameis has thrown to was the most talented WR Cousins ever got to throw to (DeSean). 

That doesn't matter. Jameis would be getting his free agent contract after Cousins got his. That's usually how it works.

[RandyMossIsBoss]

2 minutes ago, bucsfan333 said:

That doesn't matter. Jameis would be getting his free agent contract after Cousins got his. That's usually how it works.

QBs have to be "franchise QB" material for that to apply. I definitely question whether or not Jameis is that in the eyes of NFL teams. Not to mention, there was a market for Kirk, w/ at least 2 teams willing to break the bank for him. Would that same market develop in 2020?

 

Dolphins

Bengals

Jaguars

Broncos

Panthers

Bears

Chargers

Steelers

 

I don't think the Panthers or Bears would pay Winston franchise money over keeping Newton/Trubisky. Broncos just took Lock in the 2nd, so not locked in to him, but probably not about to sign another FA after Keenum and Flacco flops. Chargers do need to think about the future, but they obviously cannot have Rivers AND a $25M+ QB, and if they think they're competitive, they'll keep Rivers... if they don't think they're competitive, well, why spend new money on a question mark QB? Steelers are in same position as Chargers. Jaguars might have their guys in Minshew, but more importantly, they definitely cannot afford to have Jameis and Foles on the roster, and Foles can not realistically be cut for another year (IIRC) so they'd have to sacrifice quite a bit to get Jameis on the team. 

So that leaves us with just the Dolphins and Bengals, both of whom will have high picks in 2020. Now that didn't stop the Jets from going all out for Kirk in 2018, they had the #3 pick in that draft, but then that leads me to the first point of whether either team would even view Jameis as franchise QB material worth tying their tenure's to. This isn't a matter of "all it takes is 1/32 teams to view him as a franchise QB," since realistically we're just talking 3 teams here (inc Bucs) that I could see peg as the answer.

 

Kirk had 3 years as a full time starter where he put up some strong numbers despite usually having pretty weak WRs, and keep in mind, even with Kirk it was questioned whether he was franchise QB material (hence why the Redskins were so hesitant to give him an extension). Compare those years w/ Jameis's last 3:

[bucsfan333]

39 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

QBs have to be "franchise QB" material for that to apply. I definitely question whether or not Jameis is that in the eyes of NFL teams. Not to mention, there was a market for Kirk, w/ at least 2 teams willing to break the bank for him. Would that same market develop in 2020?

 

Dolphins

Bengals

Jaguars

Broncos

Panthers

Bears

Chargers

Steelers

 

I don't think the Panthers or Bears would pay Winston franchise money over keeping Newton/Trubisky. Broncos just took Lock in the 2nd, so not locked in to him, but probably not about to sign another FA after Keenum and Flacco flops. Chargers do need to think about the future, but they obviously cannot have Rivers AND a $25M+ QB, and if they think they're competitive, they'll keep Rivers... if they don't think they're competitive, well, why spend new money on a question mark QB? Steelers are in same position as Chargers. Jaguars might have their guys in Minshew, but more importantly, they definitely cannot afford to have Jameis and Foles on the roster, and Foles can not realistically be cut for another year (IIRC) so they'd have to sacrifice quite a bit to get Jameis on the team. 

So that leaves us with just the Dolphins and Bengals, both of whom will have high picks in 2020. Now that didn't stop the Jets from going all out for Kirk in 2018, they had the #3 pick in that draft, but then that leads me to the first point of whether either team would even view Jameis as franchise QB material worth tying their tenure's to. This isn't a matter of "all it takes is 1/32 teams to view him as a franchise QB," since realistically we're just talking 3 teams here (inc Bucs) that I could see peg as the answer.

 

Kirk had 3 years as a full time starter where he put up some strong numbers despite usually having pretty weak WRs, and keep in mind, even with Kirk it was questioned whether he was franchise QB material (hence why the Redskins were so hesitant to give him an extension). Compare those years w/ Jameis's last 3:

Taking this much time to debate a hypothetical that isn't gonna happen anyway seems futile. But alright.

Teams that could see Jameis as an upgrade to their current QB (or fill a vacancy) and feasibly afford him:

Bengals, Chargers, Dolphins, Panthers

Bengals pretty much already have Burrow. They can save ~$20M and draft their guy.

Rivers is a FA. Jameis is like 15 years younger and could slide into a similar offense with two great WRs and a good TE. Allen could easily be resigned.

I have no idea what Miami is doing. But they've got the cap space and draft picks to do pretty much whatever they want.

Cam might've played his last down in Carolina. Firing Rivera might signify a fresh start. And a new coach generally means new QB. 

So that's three possibilities.

 

Cousins also had the stigma (and record) of not being able to beat teams with winning records. So despite his numbers, he didn't win enough "when it mattered." He was one game over .500 with a far superior team overall. The only thing Jameis has ever had that was better was Mike Evans.

So you've got Cousins who can't beat anyone who doesn't suck and Jameis who turns the ball over like crazy. 

Jameis is the more gifted QB. And he's younger than Cousins was. But TURNOVERS. And a lot of them. 

Is there a team or two out there that would be ok with the turnovers? Or thinks they can limit them? Or coach them out of him? BA and Leftwich seem to. And they signed with this team knowing what they were getting into. It seems reasonable to believe they aren't the only two.