What Should the Bucs do w/ Jameis Winston?

[ravishingone]

The Glazers have stood beside him, since the day he was drafted.  There will not be another team that has a chance to sign him.

Arguably Winston will have the most productive season in yr 1 of an Arians offense.  Btw, the Arians offense had a play caller who had similiar experience in his role as Kellen Moore.  They are not going to break up.an offense avg. 29 points per game. 

The turnovers need to come down.  Even with the turnovers, the defense until the win streak did more to contribute to the 2-6 record.  Not surprising, when they banked on a secondary of rookies and second yr players. 

[patriotsheatyan]

2 hours ago, bucsfan333 said:

Taking this much time to debate a hypothetical that isn't gonna happen anyway seems futile. But alright.

Teams that could see Jameis as an upgrade to their current QB (or fill a vacancy) and feasibly afford him:

Bengals, Chargers, Dolphins, Panthers

Bengals pretty much already have Burrow. They can save ~$20M and draft their guy.

Rivers is a FA. Jameis is like 15 years younger and could slide into a similar offense with two great WRs and a good TE. Allen could easily be resigned.

I have no idea what Miami is doing. But they've got the cap space and draft picks to do pretty much whatever they want.

Cam might've played his last down in Carolina. Firing Rivera might signify a fresh start. And a new coach generally means new QB. 

So that's three possibilities.

 

Cousins also had the stigma (and record) of not being able to beat teams with winning records. So despite his numbers, he didn't win enough "when it mattered." He was one game over .500 with a far superior team overall. The only thing Jameis has ever had that was better was Mike Evans.

So you've got Cousins who can't beat anyone who doesn't suck and Jameis who turns the ball over like crazy. 

Jameis is the more gifted QB. And he's younger than Cousins was. But TURNOVERS. And a lot of them. 

Is there a team or two out there that would be ok with the turnovers? Or thinks they can limit them? Or coach them out of him? BA and Leftwich seem to. And they signed with this team knowing what they were getting into. It seems reasonable to believe they aren't the only two.

Winston has a noodle arm, isn’t accurate, makes bad decisions, loses more consistently than almost any QB in the NFL, and doesn’t post good numbers, but is somehow more gifted. 

Ok

[bucsfan333]

56 minutes ago, patriotsheatyan said:

Winston has a noodle arm, isn’t accurate, makes bad decisions, loses more consistently than almost any QB in the NFL, and doesn’t post good numbers, but is somehow more gifted. 

Ok

False.

False.

I think it's more that he trusts his arm more than he should. He also NEVER sees the underneath defender on hot reads. Also, Jameis throws a lot of passes before his receivers make their breaks. There have been plenty of times when his receivers have rounded their cuts, not made them on time, or made them the wrong way.

Losses aren't a QB stat.

That's debatable.

[Shanedorf]

2 hours ago, bucsfan333 said:

Is there a team or two out there that would be ok with the turnovers? Or thinks they can limit them? Or coach them out of him?

Probably not in the NFL, maybe the CFL or other leagues are more forgiving on the turnover side. In the NFL its one of theeee biggest predictors of W/L

Here's an example:
Winston and Brees are tied on passing TDs (30) and among the best in yardage too . Both are tearing it up this year
One QB is 11-3 and competing for a bye in the playoffs and the other is 7-7 and out of contention

And yes, we all know "QB wins" aren't a stat.
But turnovers are. And that includes both fumbles and INTs. The INTs are well documented.

From Warren Sharp twitter:
"Jameis has 0.76 fumbles per game the last two years, 7th most in the NFL"

So between fumbles and INT's he averages 2 turnovers per game after 5 seasons of NFL coaching. Let that sink in for a moment
In order to win the critical turnover battle every Sunday, the Bucs defense has to average 3 turnovers per game.
( NFL teams that win the T/O battle win 80 % of the time)

NFL teams can't live with that and it seems unlikely you can coach it out of him at this point in his career
( Especially considering the bombs-away nature of Arians offense as noted by others)

Since no other teams have Arians, Leftwich on staff -  it's hard to imagine another GM making that bet

That's why I believe the market for $ 27 MillionWinston exists only in the 813 area code
 

[bucsfan333]

1 minute ago, Shanedorf said:

Probably not in the NFL, maybe the CFL or other leagues are more forgiving on the turnover side. In the NFL its one of theeee biggest predictors of W/L

Here's an example:
Winston and Brees are tied on passing TDs (30) and among the best in yardage too . Both are tearing it up this year
One QB is 11-3 and competing for a bye in the playoffs and the other is 7-7 and out of contention

And yes, we all know "QB wins" aren't a stat.
But turnovers are. And that includes both fumbles and INTs. The INTs are well documented.

From Warren Sharp twitter:
"Jameis has 0.76 fumbles per game the last two years, 7th most in the NFL"

So between fumbles and INT's he averages 2 turnovers per game after 5 seasons of NFL coaching. Let that sink in for a moment
In order to win the critical turnover battle every Sunday, the Bucs defense has to average 3 turnovers per game.
( NFL teams that win the T/O battle win 80 % of the time)

NFL teams can't live with that and it seems unlikely you can coach it out of him at this point in his career
( Especially considering the bombs-away nature of Arians offense as noted by others)

Since no other teams have Arians, Leftwich on staff -  it's hard to imagine another GM making that bet

That's why I believe the market for $ 27 MillionWinston exists only in the 813 area code
 

The Bucs give up 28.4 ppg.

The Saints give up 21.6 ppg.

[RandyMossIsBoss]

19 minutes ago, bucsfan333 said:

The Bucs give up 28.4 ppg.

The Saints give up 21.6 ppg.

That 28.4 PPG is so damn misleading when Jameis is turning it over at a frenetic pace and giving teams good fieldposition. 

 

In fact, the Bucs defensive DVOA ranks 9th! The offense? 21st...

 

those #s surprise me, I’m not sure what’s behind them in this specific instance, but they definitely at least show how harmful Jameis has been to D’s basic stat.

Edited December 19, 2019 by RandyMossIsBoss

[Shanedorf]

 

28 minutes ago, bucsfan333 said:

The Bucs give up 28.4 ppg.

The Saints give up 21.6 ppg.

And why did the Bucs give up more points per game on defense ?
Could it have anything to do with all the turnovers ? The Bucs rank # 29 in where their opponents start a drive. New Orleans ranks # 5
New Orleans' opponents didn't get squat for turnovers or field position
The bucs opponents were showered with the gift of short fields and extra possessions. At some point, your defense is going to have a mutiny.

I have to come clean and tell you that you are at a distinct disadvantage in this debate
I lived (and died)  through Brett Lorenzo Favre's entire career. I've seen this movie before, including all of the "mitigating" factors that are brought up

Good luck to you and the Bucs

[FalconFan13]

I personally think the Bucs should keep him and finally invest in a upgraded o-line and for godsakes get that man a legit RB in front of him to take some pressure off and not make the offense so 1 dimensional.   Now with that said i hope the bucs lets him go try to draft a mid range QB that fails doesn't get a rb or o-line.  While also paying big money for a avg or worse stop gap qb thats even worse than winston in free agency like a foles or maybe tannehill lol.

[Texans02]

3 hours ago, FalconFan13 said:

I personally think the Bucs should keep him and finally invest in a upgraded o-line and for godsakes get that man a legit RB in front of him to take some pressure off and not make the offense so 1 dimensional.   Now with that said i hope the bucs lets him go try to draft a mid range QB that fails doesn't get a rb or o-line.  While also paying big money for a avg or worse stop gap qb thats even worse than winston in free agency like a foles or maybe tannehill lol.

I would also want Winston kept if he was on a division rival.

[bucsfan333]

17 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

I have to come clean and tell you that you are at a distinct disadvantage in this debate
I lived (and died)  through Brett Lorenzo Favre's entire career. I've seen this movie before, including all of the "mitigating" factors that are brought up

Oh. Who's that? Is that the same Favre that won a Super Bowl? And averaged over an INT per game for his career? And is in the HoF?

Are you telling me a QB that turns the ball over a lot can still win games?

[Nabbs4u]

If people would stop overreacting to the ridiculously absurd QB payscale ($27M) for a player like Winston, they wouldn't have a problem with him in TB.

It is what it is. A system that has paid Sam Mr. Glass Bradford $20M, Blake Bortles $20M.

Winston is no different then a young Eli Manning IMO only Winston is throwing for more yds and TDs. We've seen numerous QB's have issues with Int but have success in the NFL and or win SB Farve , Tarkenton, Unitas as the other example of a "Gun Slinger" who throws way to many picks!!!!

This isn't a player you give up on, it's a player you try and limit said turnovers in the years to come. That's your job as a HC!!!  Make it a point at nauseam daily, living for another down or punting is better then Throwing it into a window you shouldn't,  even though We know you can!

Franchise him, see how year Two with Arians goes then decide. 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2019 by Nabbs4u

[patriotsheatyan]

46 minutes ago, bucsfan333 said:

Oh. Who's that? Is that the same Favre that won a Super Bowl? And averaged over an INT per game for his career? And is in the HoF?

Are you telling me a QB that turns the ball over a lot can still win games?

Favre as a turnover machine is a myth. He had an interception below the league average 12/19 years of his career. Winston has had an interception percentage above the league average every year of his career.

Favre played well and won games. Winston does nothing but lose them.

Edited December 19, 2019 by patriotsheatyan

[bucsfan333]

11 minutes ago, patriotsheatyan said:

Favre as a turnover machine is a myth. He had an interception below the league average 12/19 years of his career. Winston has had an interception percentage above the league average every year of his career.

Favre played well and won games. Winston does nothing but lose them.

Favre had 336 INTs in 302 games. He threw 20+ INTs in a season six times. And had 19 in his last season.

Again. Wins aren't a QB stat.

[Split the Sticks]

47 minutes ago, patriotsheatyan said:

Favre as a turnover machine is a myth. He had an interception below the league average 12/19 years of his career.

it's not just the number it's the quality LOL

how many times did he end an NFCCG with an int? Gad.

[Kirill]

Both parties could benefit from a change of scenery. Maybe the Buccaneers swap 1sts with the Chargers and have Chargers throw in a 2nd round pick? For some reason I could see Winston thriving for the Chargers.